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Manufacturing Drives 4Q20 GDP Recovery, but Services Sluggish

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Manufacturing Drives 4Q20 GDP Recovery, but Services Sluggish January 4, 2021 Singapore Economics Manufacturing Drives 4Q20 GDP Recovery, But Services Sluggish Analysts 2020 GDP Contraction Largest in Singapore’s History GDP growth improved in the fourth quarter as manufacturing surged, but services Chua Hak Bin saw a sluggish and uneven recovery due to safety measures and border controls. (65) 6231 5830 GDP fell by -3.8% in 4Q from a year ago (vs. upward revised -5.6% in 3Q). On a [email protected] quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, GDP rose by +2.1%, significantly Lee Ju Ye slower than the +9.5% rebound in 3Q. Full year 2020 GDP growth came in at -5.8% (65) 6231 5844 (vs. +0.7% in 2019), the largest annual decline since independence. This is in line [email protected] with our -5.7% forecast but above the -6.5% to -6% range predicted by MTI in November. Manufacturing Outperforms, Construction Improving ECONOMICS Manufacturing (+9.5% vs. +10.8% in 3Q) charged ahead, driven by the electronics, biomedical manufacturing and precision engineering clusters which offset the declines in transport engineering and general manufacturing. The 4Q advance estimate implies that industrial production surged by +13.1% in Dec (vs. +17.9% in Nov). Manufacturing defied recession in 2020, staging a +7.1% jump (vs. -1.4% in 2019) on high demand for semiconductors & related equipment and pharmaceuticals. We expect the sector to continue growing in 2021 but at a slower pace of around +3.2%. Singapore Construction (-28.5% vs. -46.2% in 3Q) improved as more activities resumed, but remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels. The sector will likely post a slow recovery in 2021, supported by public residential developments and upgrading works and projects such as the Jurong Lake District and Cross Island MRT Line. Services: Long and Winding Road to Recovery Services (-6.8% vs. -8.4% in 3Q) is seeing the slowest pace of recovery as external- oriented sectors such as the wholesale & retail trade and transportation & storage (-11% vs. -11.9% in 3Q) remained weak. Wholesale trade and water transport continued to decline on sluggish external demand, while the air transport segment remains depressed given the travel restrictions and border closures. The bright spots include the info & comm, finance & insurance and professional services, which collectively rose by +0.2% (vs. -0.2% in 3Q) as the former two segments continued to expand. The remaining group of services (accommodation & food services, real estate, admin & support services and other services) fell by a smaller -9.9% (vs. -13.5% in 3Q), weighed down by weak tourism demand and safe distancing measures. Expect Modest Recovery of +4.5% in 2021, MAS to Hold We forecast GDP to recover by a modest +4.5% in 2021, below the mid-point of MTI’s forecast range of +4% to +6%. The recovery will be more U-shaped than V, with GDP returning to pre-pandemic levels only in early 2022 (see Singapore Year Ahead 2021 – Recovery and Reopening, 7 Dec 2020). Easing of border controls will be at a snail-pace, not at warp speed, and likely later, when herd immunity is achieved in most developed economies. Recovery in 2021 will be conditional on services, which remains sluggish, while manufacturing already surged strongly in 2020. Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat will unveil Budget 2021 on 16 Feb. Following the generous SG$100bn (20% of GDP) support package in 2020, we expect this year’s budget to stay expansionary, but with a smaller fiscal deficit of 4% of GDP (vs. 15% in FY2020). We expect the MAS to maintain its current S$NEER neutral stance in 2021 to support the recovery. THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG RESEARCH Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012 SEE PAGE 5 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Economics Research Table 1: Sector Growth Rates (Maybank Forecasts in Italic) 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 2019 2020 2021F 2022F %YoY Change Total 1.0 -0.2 -13.4 -5.6 -3.8 0.7 -5.8 4.5 3.0 Goods Producing Industries -1.3 6.6 -9.2 2.2 3.3 -0.8 0.7 Manufacturing -2.3 8.3 -0.5 10.8 9.5 -1.4 7.1 Construction 4.3 -1.2 -61.0 -46.2 -28.5 2.8 -33.7 Services Industries 1.5 -2.3 -13.4 -8.4 -6.8 1.1 -7.8 Wholesale & Retail Trade and Transportation & -1.2 -6.1 -15.9 -11.9 -11.0 -1.9 -11.2 Storage Info & Comm, Finance & Insurance and Professional 3.6 4.3 -3.0 -0.2 0.2 4.0 0.3 Services Accom & Food Services, Real Estate, Admin & 2.5 -5.2 -22.0 -13.5 -9.9 1.5 -12.6 Support Services and Other Services QoQ Growth % (SA) Total 0.2 -0.7 -13.3 9.5 2.1 0.7 -5.8 4.5 3.0 Goods Producing Industries -0.9 7.4 -15.4 13.5 0.2 -0.8 0.7 Manufacturing -1.5 10.0 -9.2 12.6 -2.6 -1.4 7.1 Construction 1.3 -3.2 -60.5 39.0 34.4 2.8 -33.7 Services Industries 0.5 -3.4 -11.0 6.0 2.4 1.1 -7.8 Wholesale & Retail Trade and Transportation & 0.1 -5.8 -10.5 4.3 1.2 -1.9 -11.2 Storage Info & Comm, Finance & Insurance and Professional 2.1 -0.6 -4.5 2.9 2.5 4.0 0.3 Services Accom & Food Services, Real Estate, Admin & 0.3 -5.8 -18.1 11.7 4.5 1.5 -12.6 Support Services and Other Services Note: With effect from the advance GDP estimates for 4Q20, the advance estimates for the Services Industries will be further disaggregated into three groups of services sectors. Source: CEIC, Ministry of Trade & Industry, Maybank Kim Eng Fig 1: GDP Posted Softer %YoY Decline of -3.8% in 4Q; %QoQ Fig 2: Manufacturing Outperforms in 4Q; Construction and Growth Eased to +2.1% Services Improving Source: CEIC, Department of Statistics Source: CEIC, Department of Statistics January 4, 2021 2 Economics Research Fig 3: SGD NEER Currently Trading at +0.5% Above the Implied Mid-point Source: Bloomberg, Maybank GM FX Research January 4, 2021 3 Economics Research Research Offices ECONOMICS REGIONAL EQUITIES SINGAPORE THAILAND Suhaimi ILIAS Anand PATHMAKANTHAN Thilan WICKRAMASINGHE Head of Research Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research Chief Economist Head of Regional Equity Research (65) 6231 5840 [email protected] Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 Malaysia | Philippines | Global (603) 2297 8783 • Banking & Finance - Regional [email protected] (603) 2297 8682 [email protected] • Consumer • Strategy • Consumer • Materials • Services [email protected] WONG Chew Hann, CA CHUA Su Tye Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA CHUA Hak Bin Head of ASEAN Equity Research (65) 6231 5842 [email protected] (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395 Regional Thematic Macroeconomist (603) 2297 8686 • REITs - Regional [email protected] (65) 6231 5830 [email protected] • Banking & Finance [email protected] LAI Gene Lih, CFA ONG Seng Yeow (65) 6231 5832 [email protected] Kaushal LADHA, CFA LEE Ju Ye Research, Technology & Innovation • Technology • Healthcare (66) 2658 6300 ext 1392 Singapore | Thailand | Indonesia (65) 6231 5839 [email protected] (65) 6231 5844 [email protected] Kareen CHAN • Oil & Gas – Regional [email protected] (65) 6231 5926 [email protected] • Petrochemicals - Regional MALAYSIA • Transport • Telcos Linda LIU Vanida GEISLER, CPA Singapore | Vietnam | Anand PATHMAKANTHAN Head of Research TAN Chin Poh Head of Retail Research (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394 Cambodia | Myanmar | Laos (603) 2297 8783 (65) 6231 5928 [email protected] [email protected] (65) 6231 5847 [email protected] • Property [email protected] • Strategy Eric ONG (65) 6231 5924 [email protected] Yuwanee PROMMAPORN Dr Zamros DZULKAFLI Desmond CH’NG, BFP, FCA • Retail Research (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393 (603) 2082 6818 (603) 2297 8680 Yuwanee.P @maybank-ke.co.th [email protected] [email protected] Matthew SHIM • Services • Banking & Finance (65) 6231 5929 Ramesh LANKANATHAN [email protected] Ekachai TARAPORNTIP Head of Retail Research (603) 2297 8685 LIAW Thong Jung • Retail Research (66) 2658 5000 ext 1530 [email protected] (603) 2297 8688 [email protected] [email protected] • Oil & Gas Services- Regional INDIA William POH • Automotive Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT (603) 2297 8683 Jigar SHAH Head of Research (66) 2658 5000 ext 1470 [email protected] ONG Chee Ting, CA (91) 22 4223 2632 [email protected] [email protected] (603) 2297 8678 [email protected] • Strategy • Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel FX • Plantations - Regional Neerav DALAL Suttatip PEERASUB Saktiandi SUPAAT YIN Shao Yang, CPA (91) 22 4223 2606 [email protected] (66) 2658 5000 ext 1430 Head of FX Research (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] • Software Technology • Telcos [email protected] (65) 6320 1379 • Gaming – Regional • Food & Beverage • Commerce [email protected] • Media • Aviation Kshitiz PRASAD (91) 22 4223 2607 Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG Christopher WONG TAN Chi Wei, CFA [email protected] (66) 2658 5000 ext 1404 (65) 6320 1347 (603) 2297 8690 [email protected] • Banks [email protected] [email protected] • Power • Telcos • Transportation • Small cap Vikram RAMALINGAM TAN Yanxi WONG Wei Sum, CFA (91) 22 4223 2607 Thanatphat SUKSRICHAVALIT (65) 6320 1378 (603) 2297 8679 [email protected] [email protected] (66) 2658 5000 ext 1401 [email protected] • Property • Automobile • Media [email protected] • Media • Electronics Fiona LIM LEE Yen Ling INDONESIA (65) 6320 1374 (603) 2297 8691 [email protected] Isnaputra ISKANDAR Head of Research Wijit ARAYAPISIT [email protected] • Glove • Ports • Shipping • Healthcare (62) 21 8066 8680 (66) 2658 5000 ext 1450
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