Lancaster District Local Centres Study

Lancaster City Council

July 2017

Contents

1.0 Introduction ...... 2

2.0 Planning Policy Context ...... 6

3.0 Local Centre Healthchecks ...... 16

4.0 Distribution and Provision of Facilities Within Local Centres ...... 35

5.0 Assessment of Proposed Local Centres ...... 38

6.0 Walk Time Catchments ...... 64

7.0 Summary and Recommendations ...... 73

Glossary of Terms...... 80

Appendices

Appendix 1 – Study Area Zones Appendix 2 – Distribution of Retail Hierarchy Appendix 3 – Distribution of Convenience Goods Retailers Appendix 4 – Local Centre Health Checks Appendix 5 – Overview of Walk Time Catchments Appendix 6 – Individual Walk Time Catchment Plans Appendix 7 – Social Demographic Statistics Appendix 8 – Updated Capacity Model Appendix 9 – WYG Defined ‘Urban Areas’

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1.0 Introduction

Objectives of the Study 1.01 WYG Planning (hereafter referred to as ‘WYG’) was commissioned by Lancaster City Council (‘the Council’) to undertake a review of the defined local centres within Lancaster and provide strategic planning advice regarding the proposed new local centres within the strategic policy allocations of Bailrigg Garden Village, East Lancaster and North Lancaster.

1.02 Local centres are currently defined through the Lancaster Core Strategy, under Policy ER 4. There are currently nine designated local centres within the Core Strategy. Paragraph 5.27 of the Core Strategy describes these as offering basic local shops including a Post Office, a general store, a chemist and other specialist shops. As the Core Strategy states, these centres remain important in providing sustainable shopping facilities for local communities and that their continued vitality is important. We cover the relevant policies in more detail in Section 2.0 below.

1.03 Once adopted, Policy TC1 of the emerging Strategic Policies & Land Allocations Development Plan Document (DPD) will redefine the existing retail hierarchy for the Lancaster District. Policy TC1 proposes 16 local centres, split across urban and rural parts of the district and defined by their proximity to both Lancaster and Morecambe. Many of the local centres defined under Policy ER 4 of the core strategy remain under Policy TC1.

1.04 Many local centres provide access to shops but are also the ‘heart’ of the local community in some instances, with community halls and libraries. Due to the substantially different demographics of the populations surrounding the currently defined local centres, each centre is qualitatively different and have been structured and designed to meet specific needs. There are notably different offers in each centre, matching the specific requirements of residents in each of the catchments.

1.05 Shopping and leisure provision within Lancaster is largely concentrated within the centres of Lancaster and Morecambe and to a lesser extent, Carnforth. These retail centres are characterised by a range of local and national retailers that predominately serve the local area.

1.06 Outside of these centres, additional retail facilities are offered within the smaller local centres. Lancaster has a network of local centres, which act as a focus for local life and successful communities. They provide shops, services and facilities to meet local day to day needs as

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well as providing opportunities for growth, investment and local employment close to where people live and in some cases, work.

1.07 The Council is committed to maintaining the vitality and viability of appropriate local centres for the benefit of those who live, work and visit Lancaster and Morecambe. Local centres should be the focus for retail development and community uses to meet the requirements of the local community. By ensuring an appropriate balance of uses is supported, the role of Local Centres will be maintained and strengthened.

1.08 The facilities contained within local centres provide an important resource to the community they serve. In many cases, they provide a heart to a community and are situated close to residential accommodation thereby ensuring all residents, regardless of access to a car, can access facilities locally. They reduce the need to travel for everyday items and are important providers for those members of the community that are less mobile.

1.09 However, it should be noted that shopping patterns have changed significantly over the years with people forgoing daily food shopping in favour of the weekly ‘big’ shop at major supermarkets. The supermarkets themselves reacted by growing bigger and by extending the range of goods they sell to compete not just with local butchers, bakers, newsagents etc, but also against service traders such as Post Offices, banks, pharmacies and opticians. Recent trends appear to show that the move towards more and larger superstores may be over with a marked shift towards more local convenience shopping (i.e. C-Stores and Metro formats).

1.10 This is not turning back time to retailing patterns of old, with old local centres automatically enjoying a renaissance, rather there are demands for the convenience of big store shopping in more local locations. This is leading to pressure for new ‘large local’ convenience stores with dedicated or ample local parking such as more modern Co-Operative stores or Tesco Express and Sainsbury’s Local. With people often now driving to local stores, sometimes as part of linked trips instead of walking, centres not located on main roads or offering adequate parking are often put at a significant disadvantage.

1.11 There is also marked growth in the discounters’ segment of the food market with companies such as Aldi and Lidl expanding rapidly. Whilst these companies operate stores larger than can comfortably be accommodated in local centres they often choose to locate in suburban locations presenting challenges to established centres.

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1.12 Considering the above, WYG has been commissioned to assess the existing local centres as defined in the emerging local plan and establish their current ‘health’. This has then enabled a review of whether there are any key deficiencies in provision and where the Council needs to be focussing on potentially defining new local centres to serve populations not currently in easy access to local retail and service provision. In addition to the existing local centres, as part of our site visits we have also assessed other areas which contain an accumulation of main town centre uses and have a future potential as new designated centres.

The Brief 1.13 A summary of the brief as provided by Lancaster Council is provided below.

▪ Assess all existing local centres as identified in the emerging local plan, and prepare a health check for each of the centres providing an overview of the vitality and viability of each centre;

▪ Assess all proposed local centres in South Lancaster (Bailrigg Garden Village), East Lancaster and North Lancaster and provide recommendations on the proposed scale and role of the proposed centres;

▪ Provide an overview of centre provision across the district, considering both existing and proposed centres, and reflect on whether there are any deficiencies and whether there is sufficient provision to meet the needs and demands of the significant housing and economic growth which is proposed in the draft plan;

▪ Provide an overview of the proposed retail growth in the draft plan, considering both the quantitative and qualitative issues which surround the comparison retail growth proposed at Lancaster Canal Corridor and the former Frontierland site. A similar approach should be taken towards the delivery of proposed convenience retailing growth to the South of Lancaster; and

▪ Provide a recommendation over the future needs for a local impact threshold to be provided as part of the emerging local plan (rather than the current default position of the national threshold).

Structure of Report 1.14 Our report is structured as follows:

▪ Section 2.0 - Planning Policy Context ▪ Section 3.0 – Local Centre Healthchecks ▪ Section 4.0 – Distribution and Provision of Facilities in Local Centres www.wyg.com creative minds safe hands 4

▪ Section 5.0 – Assessment of Proposed Local Centres ▪ Section 6.0 – Analysis of Walk Time Catchments ▪ Section 7.0 - Summary and Recommendations

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2.0 Planning Policy Context

National Planning Policy Framework 2.01 The National Planning Policy Framework was published in March 2012. The NPPF replaced all former Planning Policy Statements, Planning Policy Guidance Notes and some Circulars in a single consolidated document.

2.02 The main theme of the NPPF is that there should be ‘a presumption in favour of sustainable development’. In terms of plan-making, it is stated that local planning authorities should positively seek opportunities to meet the development needs of their area, with an emphasis on Local Plans having sufficient flexibility to adapt to rapid change.

2.03 In terms of economic development, it is set out within the NPPF’s core principles that planning should proactively drive and support economic development to deliver the homes, business and industrial units, infrastructure and thriving local places that the country needs. Every effort should be made to objectively identify and then meet the business and other development needs of an area, with positive responses made to wider opportunities for growth.

2.04 The NPPF stresses the Government’s commitment to securing economic growth to create jobs and prosperity, with paragraph 17 stating that the planning system should do everything it can to support sustainable economic growth.

2.05 Paragraph 19 indicates that planning should operate to encourage and not to act as an impediment to sustainable growth, and that significant weight should be placed on the need to support economic growth through the planning system. The NPPF seeks to ensure that local planning authorities plan proactively to meet the development needs of business and support an economy fit for the 21st century.

2.06 The NPPF still recognises the need to promote the vitality and viability of towns and cities through the promotion of competition and growth management during the plan period. Paragraph 23 of the NPPF provides guidance for local planning authorities in drawing up Local Plans, it indicates that they should:

▪ recognise town centres as the heart of their communities and pursue policies to support their vitality and viability;

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▪ define a network and hierarchy of centres that is resilient to anticipated future economic changes;

▪ define the extent of town centres and primary shopping areas, based on a clear definition of primary and secondary frontages in designated centres, and set policies that make clear which uses will be permitted in such locations;

▪ promote competitive town centres that provide customer choice and a diverse retail offer and which reflect the individuality of town centres;

▪ retain and enhance existing markets and, where appropriate, re-introduce or create new ones, ensuring that markets remain attractive and competitive;

▪ allocate a range of suitable sites to meet the scale and type of retail, leisure, commercial, office, tourism, cultural, community and residential development needed in town centre. It is important that needs for retail, leisure, office and other main town centre uses are met in full and are not compromised by limited site availability. Local planning authorities should therefore undertake an assessment of the need to expand town centres to ensure a sufficient supply of suitable sites;

▪ allocate appropriate edge of centre sites for main town centre uses that are well connected to the town centre where suitable and viable town centre sites are not available. If sufficient edge of centre sites cannot be identified, set policies for meeting the identified needs in other accessible locations that are well connected to the town centre;

▪ set policies for the consideration of proposals for main town centre uses which cannot be accommodated in or adjacent to town centres;

▪ recognise that residential development can play an important role in ensuring the vitality of centres and set out policies to encourage residential development on appropriate sites; and

▪ where town centres are in decline, local planning authorities should plan positively for their future to encourage economic activity.

2.07 Paragraph 23 also indicates that needs for retail, leisure, office and other main town centre uses should be met in full and should not be compromised by limited site availability.

2.08 Paragraph 24 requires local planning authorities to adopt a sequential approach to the consideration of planning applications for main town centre uses that are not in an existing centre or in accordance with an up-to-date Local Plan. The following paragraph 25 indicates

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that that the sequential approach should not apply to applications for small scale rural offices or other small scale development.

2.09 Paragraph 26 indicates that local planning authorities should require an impact assessment for retail, leisure and office development outside of town centres which are not in accordance with an up-to-date Local Plan and if the development is over a proportionate, locally set threshold. Where there is no locally defined threshold, the default threshold will be 2,500 sq.m.

2.10 Paragraph 27 indicates that where an application fails to satisfy the sequential test or is likely to have a significant adverse impact on the vitality and viability of a town centre or on existing, planned, committed investment in a centre it should be refused.

2.11 The NPPF also recognises that retail activity should still, where possible, be focused in existing town centres. Retail and leisure proposals which cannot be accommodated in or adjacent to the town centre must satisfy a dual impact test and the sequential test.

Ensuring the Vitality of Town Centres Planning Practice Guidance 2.12 ‘Ensuring the Vitality of Town Centres’ National Planning Practice Guidance was published in March 2014. It provides a concise summation of how retail and main town centre planning policy is to be applied in practice. The objectives of the Practice Guidance remain comparable with those of its predecessor, with there being a stated requirement for local planning authorities to plan positively and support town centres to generate local employment, promote competition within and between town centres, and create attractive and diverse places for users.

2.13 The Practice Guidance requires local planning authorities to fully assess and plan to meet needs for main town centre uses through the adoption of a ‘town centre first’ approach. Paragraphs 002 and 003 confirm that this should be delivered through a positive vision or strategy which is communicated through the development plan. The strategy should be facilitated through active engagement with the private sector and other interested organisations (including Portas Pilot organisations, Town Teams and so on). Any strategy should be based on evidence which clarifies the current state of town centres and opportunities to meet development needs and support centres’ vitality and viability.

2.14 Such strategies should seek to address the following matters:

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▪ the appropriate and realistic role, function and hierarchy of town centres in the area of over the plan period, including an audit of the vitality and viability of existing town centres and their ability to accommodate new development; ▪ consideration of the vision for the future of each town centre and the most appropriate mix of uses; ▪ the assessment of the scale of development that a town centre can accommodate; ▪ the timeframe for new retail floorspace to be delivered; ▪ what other complementary strategies are necessary or appropriate to enhance the town centre to deliver the vision in the future; and ▪ the consideration of the enhancement of car parking provision including charging and enforcement mechanisms.

2.15 Paragraph 005 of the Practice Guidance identifies a series of key indicators which are of relevance in assessing the health of a centre over time. Paragraph 005 goes on to state that not all successful town centre regeneration initiatives have been retail led or focused on substantial new development, but have instead involved improvements such as renewed public realm, parking, and accessibility and other partnership mechanisms.

2.16 Paragraph 009 reaffirms the town centre first policy in the form of the sequential test, which requires local planning authorities to undertake an assessment of candidate sites’ availability, suitability and viability when preparing their local plan. Such an assessment should also consider the scale of future needs and the type of land required to accommodate main town centre uses.

Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessment Planning Practice Guidance 2.17 The Government has issued further Practice Guidance to provide specific instruction in respect of the undertaking of needs assessments (including those for main town centre uses). Paragraph 032 of the Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessments Planning Practice Guidance states that plan makers should consider forecasts of quantitative and qualitative need based on a range of data which is current and robust. Local planning authorities will need to take account of business cycles and make use of forecasts and surveys to assess employment land requirements.

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Relaxation of Permitted Development Rights 2.18 At a national level, recent changes to the Town and Country Planning (General Permitted Development) Order 1995 have sought to support the diversification and vitality of town centres. The changes follow the Portas Report recommendation to make it easier to change surplus space to provide for the effective re-use of buildings.

2.19 The Town and Country Planning (General Permitted Development) (England) Order 2015 came into force on 15 April 2015. The Order acts, inter alia, to consolidate and replace the Town and Country Planning (General Permitted Development Order 1995) and to provide additional permitted development rights. It should be noted that conditions and restrictions apply, and that prior approval is generally required to implement development. The new rights include:

▪ a permitted change of use from retail/financial services (Class A1/A2), betting offices and pay day loans shops to residential (Class C3); ▪ a permitted change of use from amusement arcade/casino (sui generis use) to residential use (Class C3); ▪ a permitted change from retail (Class A1) to financial services (Class A2); ▪ a permitted change from retail/financial services (Class A1/A2) to food and drink (Class A3); ▪ a permitted change from retail/financial services (Class A1/A2), betting offices, pay day loan shops and casinos to assembly and leisure uses (Class D2); ▪ an extension of the temporary permitted development rights introduced in May 2013 for extensions to shops, offices, industrial and warehouse buildings to support business expansion and the economy so they apply permanently; ▪ the erection of click and collect facilities within the cartilage of a retail shop; and ▪ modifications to the size of an existing retail shop loading bay.

2.20 The Town and Country Planning (General Permitted Development) (England) (Amendment) Order 2016 subsequently came into force on 6 April 2016. The Amendment provides for the change of use of launderettes to residential uses as permitted development, and acts to make permanent previous temporary provisions which permit the change of use from office to residential use. A condition allowing the local planning authority to consider noise impacts on the intended occupants of the development from premises in commercial use is included in the extended right.

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2.21 The intended consequence of the above measure is to secure the redevelopment and reuse of premises. It is considered that the relaxation in respect of changes of use to residential are more likely to encourage re-use of offices in larger metropolitan areas which may benefit from a greater supply of office buildings.

Lancaster Council Development Plan Policy 2.22 The adopted development plan for Lancaster City comprises:

▪ Lancaster District Local Plan (adopted April 2004); ▪ Lancaster Core Strategy (adopted July 2008); ▪ Lancaster Development Management DPD (adopted December 2014); and ▪ Morecambe Area Action Plan (adopted December 2014).

Lancaster District Local Plan 2.23 Although Chapter 3 of the Local Plan relates to the local economy and the preamble to this chapter states that it is the aim of the Council to continue the successful development of tourism and leisure in the District, most policies relating to leisure development have been superseded by the policies contained within the Core Strategy, Development Management DPD and Morecambe AAP.

Lancaster Core Strategy 2.24 The Core Strategy, which was adopted in 2008, sets out a spatial vision for the District up to 2021. The Strategy identifies suitable areas for development and regeneration, as well as those areas which should be conserved. The Core Strategy sets out broad locations for land use, with site specific areas for development or protection to be identified in the Land Allocations Development Plan Document.

2.25 The Core Strategy sets out a vision for the District to be a sustainable self-contained and varied group of communities comprising:

▪ Morecambe and Heysham – A confident community with a regenerated living, working and leisure environment;

▪ Lancaster – A prosperous historic city with a thriving knowledge economy;

▪ Carnforth – A successful market town and service centre for North Lancashire and South Cumbria; and

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▪ A conserved, enhanced and diversified coast and countryside with a network of vibrant rural communities.

2.26 Policy ER 4 seeks to maintain the vitality and viability of the town centres in the District. The policy seeks to improve the roles of Lancaster, Morecambe and Carnforth as tourist and visitor destinations.

Development Management DPD 2.27 The Development Management DPD sets out policies to be used in the determination of planning applications. It is the Council’s intention that once a Land Allocations DPD has been adopted, this documents, alongside the Development Management DPD and Morecambe AAP, will replace the Core Strategy, which will be withdrawn as a material planning consideration.

2.28 Policy DM1: Town Centre Development seeks to direct proposals for main town centre uses to defined town centres. The policy states that any proposals relating to leisure facilities and hotel development will be expected to adhere to the requirements of the sequential test. An interim town centre designation plan for Lancaster city centre is set out at Appendix G of the Development Management DPD for use in the application of this policy.

2.29 Policy DM2 of the Development Management DPD relates to retail frontages. The document sets out retail frontages for Lancaster and Carnforth, with the retail frontages for Morecambe to be addressed by the Morecambe AAP. The policy states that proposals with primary retail frontages which involve the change of use of ground floor premises to non-A1 uses will only be permitted where three criteria are met. These criteria seek to maintain the vitality and viability of Lancaster and Carnforth by maintaining a concentration of retail uses and activity within the primary retail frontage. The policy states that within the secondary retail frontages, the Council will seek to retain an appropriate mix of ‘A’ Class uses whilst permitting a limited number of non-A1 uses. However, for proposals for a change of use of ground floor premises to non-A1 uses to be permitted, several criteria will need to be met.

2.30 The council has recently consulted on a revised draft Development Management DPD (27th January – 24th March 2017). In the emerging document, Policy DM1 becomes DM14 and Policy DM2 becomes Policy DM15. The policies themselves however remain unchanged.

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Strategic Policies and Land Allocations DPD 2017 2.31 The Strategic Policies & Land Allocations Development Plan Document (DPD) will direct where homes, employment land, services and future investment will go in the district between 2011- 2031. During 2015, the Council consulted on a series of strategic options for growth to inform the preparation of the Land Allocations DPD.

2.32 In January 2017, the Council published the Consultation Draft of the document which was consulted on for eight weeks. Once adopted, the Strategic Policies and Land Allocations DPD and accompanying Policies Map will replace all site-specific guidance contained within the Strike-Through Edition of the Lancaster District Local Plan 1996 – 2016 (which was adopted in 2004 and reviewed in 2008).

2.33 The document proposes a new Retail hierarchy for Lancaster District which is set out under Policy TC1 and replaces that defined by Policy ER 4 of the Core Strategy. The proposed retail hierarchy remains largely unchanged to the existing hierarchy, with the introduction of further Local Centres. The emerging hierarchy is as follows:

▪ Sub-Regional Centre – Lancaster (TC1.1) ▪ District & Regeneration Priority Area – Morecambe (TC1.2) ▪ District & Key Service Centre – Carnforth (TC1.3) ▪ Urban Local Centres (Morecambe) - Bare (TC1.4) - Torrisholme (TC1.5) - Westgate (TC1.6) - West End (TC1.7) ▪ Urban Local Centres (Lancaster) - Bowerham (TC1.8) - Scotforth (TC1.9) - Lancaster Uni (TC1.10) - Ridge (TC1.11) - Skerton (TC1.12) ▪ Urban Local Centres (Heysham) - Heysham Road (TC1.13) - Heysham Village (TC1.14) ▪ Rural Local Centres - Caton (TC1.15)

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- Hornby (TC1.16) - Galgate (TC1.17) - Bolton-le-Sands (TC1.18) - Silverdale (TC1.19)

2.34 The local centres proposed at Scotforth, Ridge and Skerton do not yet exist and represent the proposed creation of new local centres as part of strategic growth plans for South, North and East Lancaster. We provide further an assessment of the nature of these proposed centres below.

Forthcoming Projects and Schemes 2.35 We set out below details of forthcoming project and schemes in the Lancaster local authority area which have the potential to encourage growth in the commercial retail and leisure sector in the District and particularly within the city centre.

Lancaster Canal Corridor North Scheme 2.36 The Canal Corridor North Scheme is a key regeneration priority, as set out in the Core Strategy. The Canal Corridor North relates to an area of land between St Leonard’s Gate, Moor Lane and the Lancaster Canal. The Canal Corridor North site has a long history, with previous plans for the delivery of large scale retail-led regeneration scheme being delivered on the site. However, because of a range of factors including the refusal of an initial application in 2009 (application ref. 09/00002/CALLIN - largely on built heritage grounds), the economic recession and changes to the retail environment, there has been slow progress in relation to the plans for the regeneration of the site. However, in January 2016, the Council made the decision to continue to work with developers British Land in relation to the development of the city centre site.

2.37 We are aware that plans are currently being developed with the aim of delivering an alternative scheme on the site. Given the current retail climate, it is anticipated that leisure uses including food and beverage uses will form a substantial element of the revised scheme. It is aimed that by providing an improved leisure offer within the city centre, additional visitors will be attracted to the centre because of the strong overall offer. Such leisure users, combined with the city’s retail offer, could assist in improving dwell times in the city, thus improving the overall vitality and viability. Whilst no scheme has yet been finalised or an amended application submitted, we understand that the revised scheme will seek a different scheme to that which has been previously progressed, seeking increased number of residential properties and complementary uses for university students.

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Morecambe Bay Retail Park (Former Frontierland) 2.38 Lancaster City Council has granted planning permission for the redevelopment of the former Frontierland site on Marine Road, Morecambe (Application: 14/00388/FUL). The proposal is predominantly for comparison goods retailing but also includes a significant proportion of food and beverage (the creation of 1,432sqm of A3 / A4 uses).

2.39 There remains an expectation that development on this site will commence through 2017 / 2018 and, whilst the final operators for this floorspace are yet to be announced, it is expected that the development of this site will raise the standard of commercial leisure in Central Morecambe, both directly through the redevelopment of the Frontierland site but also the indirect impacts on commercial leisure premises on the promenade (most notably the cinema and bowling offer).

2.40 Opus Land North (the applicant) has subsequently applied in 2016 to vary conditions attached to the 2014 permission, to amend the approved plans and to widen the permitted use across the site (application ref. 16/00159/VCN). It is envisaged that the applicant is keen to attract a high quality retail and leisure offer and we understand discussions with specific operators are ongoing. However, work on Bay Retail Park (named by the applicant) has yet to commence, and it is unclear when precisely the development will be implemented.

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3.0 Local Centre Healthchecks

Introduction WYG undertook a site visit to each of the 13 existing local centres as set out within the draft Policy TC1 within the emerging Strategic Policies & Land Allocations Development Plan Document (DPD). The site visits also involved a more general site search for other potential new local centres in areas which may be deficient of a defined centre or overall retail and service offer. A plan showing the existing distribution of the centres as designated by policy TC1 is shown in figure 3.1 below and the full plan is provided at Appendix 2.

Figure 3.1: Existing Distribution of Defined Centres in Lancaster

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Draft Policy TC1 provides the proposed retail hierarchy for the Lancaster District, including the city centre, Morecambe town centre, Carnforth district centre and a range of urban local centres (in Morecambe, Lancaster and Heysham) and the rural local centres. The draft policy defines the local centres as:

▪ Urban local centres – these centres will maintain their roles in providing key services to the residents of Morecambe, Lancaster and Heysham; and ▪ Rural local centres – these centres will maintain their roles in providing key services to the rural communities within the district.

The on-street review of the local centres ensured that up-to-date fascia and floorspace data of the units at ground floor level could be collected and analysed. Reviews of the city and district centres were undertaken by WYG on behalf of the Council separately in 2014.

The baseline information enabled WYG to assess the composition of each centre, by categorising it against the Goad classification and class use (namely convenience, comparison, financial and business service, retail service and leisure service) system. A record was also taken of the vacant units in each centre. A full analysis of the centres is provided in Appendix 4, including the diversity of use plans showing the split of uses in each of the centres.

In addition to obtaining the diversity of use of the units within the centres, the site visits also enabled WYG to undertake a ‘mini’ qualitative health check assessment of each of the centres and parades, using several of the indicators outlined in the former Planning Policy Statement (PPS) 4: Planning for Sustainable Economic Growth (2009), now identified within the National Planning Practice Guidance (‘NPPG’).

The NPPF does not provide a list of indicators to be used to assess the health of a centre, however the NPPG (Ensuring the vitality of town centres) sets out several key indicators which should be monitored on a regular basis to judge the health of a centre and its performance over time. Due to the limited size of most the centres/parades, it should be noted that several of the indicators could not be reviewed as there is no information available. The indicators considered for this assessment were as follows:

▪ diversity of uses; ▪ proportion of vacant street level property; ▪ commercial yields on non-domestic property;

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▪ customers’ views and behaviour; ▪ retailer representation and intentions to change representation; ▪ commercial rents; ▪ pedestrian flows; ▪ accessibility; ▪ perception of safety and occurrence of crime; and ▪ state of local centre environmental quality.

The commentary below provides an overview of the analysis of the health of the local centres, drawing on the information gathered from the sites visits and supplemented by desk-based research.

The commentary is based on the more detailed appraisal of the relevant available information for the 13 local centres, alongside a site plan, which is provided in Appendix 4. We have also included an assessment of the vitality and viability indicators of Halton, which as we discuss in more detail below, is a centre which the Council and WYG consider could suitably meet the policy requirements and provide the necessary facilities and amenities of a local centre.

It is on the above basis that WYG has undertaken the review and provided our conclusions in respect of the ‘health’ and overall performance of each of the centres.

Health Check Indicator – Diversity of Main Town Centre Uses Table 3.1 shows the total number of outlets and amount of floorspace within each of the 13 established centres, with the data obtained from the WYG site visits undertaken in February 2017. It is evident that Bare, Torrisholme, West End and Heysham Road are the key retail and service locations in the area, with higher numbers of units and floorspace than the other locations. West End is the largest local centre by some margin, with over double the number of units of Bare, the next largest local centre.

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Table 3.1: Summary of the Local Centres

Total Amount of Gross Centre Total No. of Outlets Floorspace (Sq.m)

Bare 29 2,108 Torrisholme 20 2,031 Westgate 11 3,187 West End 126 12,439 Bowerham 15 1,770 Lancaster University 13 3,327 Heysham Road 19 2,425 Heysham Village 5 326 Caton 5 905 Hornby 4 981 Galgate 1 186 Bolton-le-Sands 10 769 Silverdale 8 861 Total 264 31,315

Tables 3.2-3.6 provide the proportion of the number of outlets, as well as the proportion of floorspace (gross) based on the Goad sub-categories within each of the centres surveyed. This is presented as both the number and the percentages. The floorspace figures are derived from the master map base map provided by the Council and provide indicative gross figures for the size of each unit. It should however be noted that this is not reflective of the net sales area.

Table 3.2: Diversity of Use by Units (No. Units)

Local Centre Provision (No. Units) Centre No. Units Convenience Comparison Service Leisure Financial Vacant Bare 29 5 12 5 5 2 0 Torrisholme 20 2 6 4 7 1 0 Westgate 11 4 1 2 4 0 0 West End 126 14 32 12 20 2 46 Bowerham 15 3 2 5 3 1 1 Lancaster University 13 2 2 4 3 2 0 Heysham Road 19 4 1 4 7 1 2 Heysham Village 5 0 1 1 3 0 0 Caton 5 1 1 2 1 0 0 Hornby 4 1 0 1 2 0 0 Galgate 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 Bolton-le-Sands 8 2 2 2 2 0 0 Silverdale 8 2 1 2 2 1 0

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Table 3.3 Diversity of Use by Units (Percentage)

Local Centre Provision (%) Centre No. Units Convenience Comparison Service Leisure Financial Vacant Bare 29 17.2% 41.4% 17.2% 17.2% 6.9% 0.0% Torrisholme 20 10.0% 30.0% 20.0% 35.0% 5.0% 0.0% Westgate 11 36.4% 9.1% 18.2% 36.4% 0.0% 0.0% West End 126 11.1% 25.4% 9.5% 15.9% 1.6% 36.5% Bowerham 15 20.0% 13.3% 33.3% 20.0% 6.7% 6.7% Lancaster University 13 15.4% 15.4% 30.8% 23.1% 15.4% 0.0% Heysham Road 19 21.1% 5.3% 21.1% 36.8% 5.3% 10.5% Heysham Village 5 0.0% 20.0% 20.0% 60.0% 0.0% 0.0% Caton 5 20.0% 20.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hornby 4 25.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% Galgate 1 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bolton-le-Sands 8 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% Silverdale 8 25.0% 12.5% 25.0% 25.0% 12.5% 0.0% Lancaster Average 25.1% 16.7% 21.9% 28.0% 4.1% 4.1% National Average 8.7% 31.6% 14.2% 23.6% 10.5% 11.2%

Table 3.4: Diversity of Use by Floorspace (Amount sq.m)

Local Centre Provision (amount of sq.m) Centre Floorspace Convenienc Compariso Service Leisure Financial Vacant (Sq.m) e n Bare 2,108 312 754 288 628 126 0 Torrisholme 2,031 588 460 245 638 100 0 Westgate 3,187 2,372 74 139 602 0 0 West End 12,439 1,297 2,670 692 2,917 106 4,757 Bowerham 1,770 379 218 367 508 110 188 Lancaster 3,327 690 290 954 921 472 0 University Heysham Road 2,425 682 84 330 944 79 306 Heysham Village 326 0 88 45 193 0 0 Caton 905 282 36 128 459 0 0 Hornby 981 95 0 84 802 0 0 Galgate 186 186 0 0 0 0 0 Bolton-le-Sands 769 194 164 108 303 0 0 Silverdale 861 243 52 157 318 91 0

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Table 3.5: Diversity of Use by Floorspace (Percentage)

Local Centre Provision (%) Centre Floorspace (Sq.m) Convenience Comparison Service Leisure Financial Vacant Bare 2,108 14.8% 35.8% 13.7% 29.8% 6.0% 0.0% Torrisholme 2,031 29.0% 22.6% 12.1% 31.4% 4.9% 0.0% Westgate 3,187 74.4% 2.3% 4.4% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% West End 12,439 10.4% 21.5% 5.6% 23.5% 0.9% 38.2% Bowerham 1,770 21.4% 12.3% 20.7% 28.7% 6.2% 10.6% Lancaster University 3,327 20.7% 8.7% 28.7% 27.7% 14.2% 0.0% Heysham Road 2,425 28.1 3.5 13.6 38.9 3.3% 12.6% Heysham Village 326 0.0% 27.0% 13.8% 59.2% 0.0% 0.0% Caton 905 31.2% 4.0% 14.1% 50.7% 0.0% 0.0% Hornby 981 9.7% 0.0% 8.6% 81.8% 0.0% 0.0% Galgate 186 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bolton-le-Sands 769 25.2% 21.3% 14.0% 39.4% 0.0% 0.0% Silverdale 861 28.2% 6.0% 18.2% 36.9% 10.6% 0.0% Lancaster Average 29.1% 12.7% 13.1% 36.5% 3.6% 4.9% National Average 15.2% 35.5% 6.8% 24.7% 7.9% 9.3%

West End contains the highest number of convenience units (14), although these units are all small format (less than 100 sq.m gross) and only account for 11.1% of the total floorspace, significantly lower than the national average of 15.2%.

The largest convenience goods unit across the local centres is Lidl, located in the Westgate local centre, comprising a floorspace of 1,549 sq.m (gross). Given the low proportion of units present in many of the centres, the number of convenience goods outlets is greater than the national average for all the centres, excluding Heysham Village which does not accommodate a convenience goods offer. The average convenience goods offer for Lancaster District is 25.1% for the number of units and 29.1% for the provision of floorspace, on both accounts greater than the respective national averages of 8.7% and 15.2%.

The provision of comparison goods units is consistently low across the local centres, excluding Bare where the provision exceeds the national average figures in terms of both the number of comparison goods units and proportion of floorspace. Whilst the other centres are underrepresented, for local centres, a strong comparison goods offer is not required to achieve their required function of meeting the basic day to day needs of residents. There are two national multiple comparison goods retailers across the thirteen centres which are WH Smiths located at Lancaster University and Boots the Chemist in Caton.

Unsurprisingly, given their role and local function, there are a good proportion of retail service units in the centres in comparison to the national average, with Bowerham accommodating a

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high level of retail service operators. Torrisholme, Westgate and Heysham Village all have a good provision of leisure service units in comparison to the national average, whilst Bare and West End have a shortfall of this type of use. The financial and business services sector is poorly represented, with several of the centres not accommodating any of this type of use, with limited provision present elsewhere.

It is worth noting that the rural local centres (Caton, Horby, Galgate, Bolton-le-Sands and Silverdale) all accommodate less than ten units and therefore limited weight should be attributed to the national average comparisons at these locations. The facilities at these locations serve significantly smaller catchments than the urban local centres but nevertheless play a key role in serving the day to day needs of residents of the rural communities within the district.

Health Check Indicator – Vacant Street-Level Property The proportion of vacant street-level property identified across the local centres was found on the most part to be low, with ten of the thirteen existing centres having no vacant outlets. Consequently, the average vacancy levels for the local centres in Lancaster District are significantly lower than the national averages in terms of both the number of vacant units and the proportion of floorspace as outlined in table 3.6.

Table 3.6: Vacant Units Total Amount of Total No. of Vacant % of Centre % of Outlets Vacant Outlets Floorspace Floorspace (Sq.m) Bare 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Torrisholme 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Westgate 0 0.0% 0 0.0% West End 46 36.5% 4,757 38.2% Bowerham 1 6.7% 188 10.6% Lancaster University 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Heysham Road 2 10.5% 306 12.6% Heysham Village 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Caton 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Hornby 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Galgate 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Bolton-le-Sands 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Silverdale 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Lancaster Local Centre Average 4 4.1% 404 4.9% UK Average* - 11.2% - 9.3%

West End local centre, which comprises a significantly greater proportion of retail and service outlets than any of the other local centres in Lancaster District has a substantial level of

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vacancies. Within West End, 46 of 126 of the surveyed units were found to be vacant. The area, which has been subject to long term vacancy issues is identified as a priority area for regeneration and has the effect of skewing the averages somewhat. The statistics in relation to vacancies show that, excluding West End, the proposed Local Centres are generally viable and subject to low vacancy levels and as such, are trading relatively well.

Average Centre Composition Following the health check appraisals, we have compiled the average number of units and average proportion of floorspace in each of the surveyed centres to provide the average local centre composition within the district. We have calculated the averages for the urban and rural local centres separately as it has been established that the urban local centres serve for significantly greater catchments than the rural local centres and consequently are generally greater in scale in terms of the number of units and the proportion of floorspace. Table 3.7 shows the average composition of the urban and rural local centres in the district. Whilst reviewing the averages across the centres is a useful tool for establishing the composition of centres across the district, the figures should be viewed with some caution due to the qualitative different nature of each of the centres, as we set out in some detail above and below. There may be some centres which skew the figures considerably due to a larger than average convenience store for example, or a higher than average vacancy rate due to other social and economic matters.

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Table 3.7: Average Centre Composition

Average Centre Composition (Urban Local Centres) No. Units % Floorspace % Convenience 4 14.3% 186 26.2% Comparison 7 23.9% 81 11.5% Retail Service 5 15.5% 83 11.7% Leisure Service 7 21.8% 141 19.9% Financial and Business Service 1 3.8% 110 15.6% Vacant 6 20.6% 107 15.1% Total 30 100% 709 100% Average Centre Composition (Rural Local Centres) No. Units % Floorspace % Convenience 1 26.9% 143 22.5% Comparison 1 15.4% 63 9.9% Retail Service 1 26.9% 68 10.8% Leisure Service 1 26.9% 269 42.4% Financial and Business Service 0 3.8% 91 14.4% Vacant 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Total 5 100% 634 100%

Table 3.7 shows that there is a significant difference in composition between the urban and rural local centres, the average urban local centre accommodating 30 units, whilst rural local centres accommodate 5 units. This is no surprise given the larger catchments supported by the urban local centres. However, as the Council acknowledges in defining the centres, whilst the rural local centres are substantially smaller and have fewer units than the urban centres, they still serve an important role and function and therefore, the designation within the local plan is important.

Table 3.8: Average Catchment Composition

Average Catchment Population Centre Category 5 Minute Walk Time Isochrone 10 Minute Walk Time Isochrone

Urban Local Centres 1,765 5,220

Rural Local Centres 986 2,195

Table 3.8 shows that the urban catchments on average support significantly greater populations within the five and ten-minute walk time catchments respectively. This corresponds with the average centre composition in that the urban local centres have a greater proportion of retail services to support the larger catchments. A full analysis of the walk time catchments is included within Section 6 of this report. These averages have also assisted in reviewing the required composition of new local centres at Section 5 of this report.

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The findings are generally consistent with what we would expect for local centres. It should however be noted that, when omitting the West End local centre, which is subject to significant vacancy levels from the average calculation, the average number of vacant units in the urban local centres is zero, demonstrating the strong performance of the defined local centres.

Socio-Demographics As part of our wider analysis of existing local centres and the scale and nature of the provision within these, we have also carried out an analysis of social demographic data based the 10- minute walk time catchments generated from each local centre point to assess the economic make-up of the immediate population of each centre. This can then be fed back into our analysis of the health and uses of the existing centres, to establish the nature and overall offer in comparison to the socio demographics of the surrounding population.

We identified several key indicators to inform the analysis and establish if the resident’s data corresponds with the findings of the health check assessments. Data was generated using Experian MMG3 software and based on Population Estimates for UK – 2015 Experian mid-year estimates (November 2016). We reviewed the following factors available within the data set:

▪ Car Ownership; ▪ Economically Active (Rate of Employment); ▪ Economically Inactive; and ▪ Health.

To interpret the results, our findings for each 10-minute walk time catchment have been averaged and compared against the statistics for the Lancaster District and UK wide. The tables outlining our findings can be found at Appendix 7.

Car Ownership In terms of car ownership, an average of 47.3% of households within the combined catchments own 1 car or van. This is slightly greater than the overall Lancaster District figure of 45.6% and national figure of 42.2%. An average of 22.5% of households within the combined catchments do not own at least one car or van. This statistic is lower than the Lancaster District average of 24.5% and national average of 26.1%. These figures indicate that households within the local centre catchments have greater access to at least one car or van that the Lancaster District as well as nationally. This finding is consistent with what we

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would expect for catchments served by local centres (or similar designations). Given the limited services provided at local centres, it is often necessary for residents to travel elsewhere to access some retail and service needs, particularly comparison goods retail.

When reviewing the findings from individual catchments, most notably we identified that car or van ownership within the five rural local centres is significantly greater than in the urban local centres, the centres representing the five lowest percentages for households with no cars or vans, the lowest being Hornby at 9.5%. This can be attributed to Hornby being the most remote of the five rural local centres, located approximately 15 kilometres from Lancaster city centre. It would be unusual if households within this catchment did not have an increased access to private vehicles due to the necessity to travel and the limited levels of public transport provision (typically concentrated on public bus services). There is also a higher proportion of households within the rural local centres that own 2 or more cars or vans. Again, this is to be expected given the limited access to services and employment within these catchments. The findings also emphasise the importance of the rural local centres in serving the needs of the small number of households that do not have access to a car or van.

In terms of the urban local centre catchments, at 42.9%, West End has a significantly greater proportion of households that do not have access to a car or van than the other centres. When cross referencing this statistic against the economic status of residents within the West End catchment, which has a population of 3,089 (the highest of all the local centre catchments), we have found the residents in and immediately surrounding West End (i.e. the ten minute walktime) have the highest unemployment rate amongst economically active residents, as well as the highest proportion of economically inactive residents. The lower proportion of car or van ownership within this catchment could be directly attributed to the above. Notwithstanding this, West End is well-connected and near Morecambe town centre, benefitting from good public transport links. Equally this could also be a factor attributing to the lower levels of car or van ownership within the catchment as well as the economic status of the residents.

It should be noted that the Experian population data does not account for student accommodation within the household projections. It has therefore not been possible to undertake a car ownership analysis for the Lancaster University catchment.

Economically Active Residents 3.03 Economically active residents are categorised by the following sub-categories:

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▪ Employee Part Time; ▪ Employee Full Time; ▪ Self Employed (With Employees) Part Time; ▪ Self Employed (With Employees) Full Time; ▪ Self Employed (Without Employees) Part Time; ▪ Self Employed (Without Employees) Full Time; ▪ Unemployed; and ▪ Student.

We found the combined local centre catchments to have an average unemployment rate of 3.2% for economically active residents. This is marginally lower than the overall Lancaster District average of 3.3% and lower than the national average of 4.4%, indicating that, on the most part unemployment is not a significant issue within the local centre catchments. The lowest levels of unemployment are present within the rural local centre catchments, in particularly within the Bolton-le-Sands and Silverdale catchments which have unemployment levels of 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, typically demonstrating the more affluent areas. Our health check assessments found Bolton-le-Sands and Silverdale to be relatively prosperous local centres and this statistic identifies a relationship between vitality and low unemployment within the district.

The highest levels of unemployment are present in Westgate (4.4%) and West End (7.3%). The figure for West End is considerably higher than the national average. Again, this supports the above findings linking the health of a centre to employment levels as our health check assessment found West End to be in poor health and subject to considerable vacancies.

Many economically active residents within all catchments excluding Lancaster University, Galgate and Silverdale, are in full time employment as an employee. Given that the university campus provides significant on-site accommodation, it is no surprise that over 80.0% of the Lancaster University catchment is accounted for by students. In terms of Silverdale, the slightly lower levels of residents in full time employment as employees can be attributed to relatively high levels of self-employed residents (without employees) working both full time and part time. Galgate is subject to a relatively high student population which accounts for over 20.0% of the catchment, which can be attributed to its location approximately 1 kilometre south of the Bailrigg Garden Village university campus.

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Economically Inactive Residents Economically inactive residents are categorised by the following sub-categories:

▪ Retired; ▪ Student (Including Full Time Students); ▪ Looking After Home or Family; ▪ Long Term Sick or Disabled; and ▪ Other.

We found most economic inactivity within the local centre catchments to be directly related to the proportions of residents in retirement and or those that are students. Firstly, Bowerham and Galgate local centres are both located near the University campus and the statistics reflect this with the student population of economically inactive residents accounting for 56.5% and 73.9% respectively. The catchment for the Lancaster University local centre also has a 98.0% student population.

The second sub-factor contributing predominately to economic inactivity within the local centre catchments is retirement, accounting for many economically inactive residents. The Silverdale catchment has the highest proportion of retirees (77.5%), with the Bare, Hornby and Bolton-le-Sands catchments also accommodating levels of retirees more than 70.0% (74.6%, 72.7% and 71.5% respectively). These findings show clearly that the rural settlements have the greatest proportion of retirees in the district. In West End retirement accounts for only 32.5% of the economically inactive population. This can be attributed to high numbers of economically inactive residents either looking after home or family (14.9%) or being long term sick or disabled (28.8%). The proportion of long term sick or disabled residents in West End is significantly greater than the Lancaster District average of 12.0% and national average of 14.5% respectively. This shows that the West End catchment is subject to unproportionate levels of residents suffering from long term sickness or disability. This supports the findings of the previous sections that there is a link between the health of centres in a retail context and negative population sub-category statistics, and the general lack of expenditure available to support ‘healthy’ local centres.

Health The health statistics are assessed against five sub categories which comprise; very good, good, fair, bad and very bad.

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We have found that within the local centre catchments, the highest proportion of residents are consistently categorised as having ‘very good health’. There are no instances where a catchment is subject to a majority of residents within the ‘very good’ sub-category. Furthermore, the average figure of 46.4% of residents within the local centre catchments categorised as having ‘very good’ health is lower, albeit marginally than the Lancaster District average of 46.8% and national average of 47.6%. Notwithstanding this, the ‘very good’ and ‘good’ sub-categories combined account for the majority of residents consistently across all of the local centre catchments.

When combining the proportions of residents categorised as having ‘bad’ and ‘very bad’ health, the Westgate and West End catchments are subject to the highest combined proportions of residents with poor health. This corresponds with findings of the economically inactive analysis, where these areas were found to have the highest proportion of residents suffering from long term sickness or disability.

Conclusion Overall, we have found that many of the 10-minute walk time catchments associated with the proposed local centres are subject to a social demographic make-up that is broadly consistent to national averages. The relatively high student population within the district does, to some extent, generate inconsistencies when assessing against the national averages. However, this is by no means an issue and represents local circumstances, the student population playing a key role in supporting the local economy, in particularly for the Bowerham, Galgate and Lancaster University local centres.

We found that West End was a consistent anomaly, in that it returned negative statistics across all four of the factors assessed. The West End catchment is subject to the lowest proportion of car and van owners, the highest unemployment rate, the highest proportion of long term sick or disabled residents and the second highest proportion of residents with poor health. It is clear, given the findings of our health check assessment that there is a direct correlation between the health of a designated centre in a retail context and its social demographic make-up, which in the case of West End has found to be poor on both counts.

As set out above, West End currently suffers from considerable vacancy levels and is not considered to be performing its proposed role as a local centre. The 10-minute walk time catchment for West End comprises a population of 6,257, which represents the highest proportion of residents located within a local centre catchment. This worsens the findings of

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the social demographic analysis as the percentages apply to the highest proportion of residents within the catchments analysed.

In respect of West End, the social demographic analysis supports the findings of the health check assessment and strengthens the case for action to be taken to improve the area through regeneration projects and initiatives. The findings of this analysis suggest that improving the physical environment could also help to improve the economic status of residents through job creation, and health.

Local Centres Summary This section briefly summarises the findings from the site visit to each of the centres and highlights several of the key findings from our surveys.

Table 3.9: Local Centres Summary Centre Summary Bare is an attractive and well performing local centre. It has a good mix of commercial units and provides a range of both retail and service provision for the surrounding local community. There are no vacancies and signs of new operators taking refurbished units, Bare including a micro-brewery bar. The centre is well maintained and the environmental quality is to a high standard. It is accessible and has readily available parking and had a good level of pedestrian movement on the day of the survey. Torrisholme local centre has a good diversity of uses, with convenience operators providing day-to-day needs for top-up shopping and a range of services to meet the local population’s

Torrisholme needs. The centre performs an important role in providing retail and service uses for the local population and to meet every day needs. There are also a good range of leisure service uses, including a public house. Westgate local centre has a good overall mix of uses, with a high number of national multiples. The format of the centre in a more traditional out-of-centre style retail park or shopping centre format, Westgate also adds to the overall modern environmental quality and health. The centre was busy on the day of the survey and the operators appeared to be popular, with the local cafe full of visitors. There is a good

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Centre Summary overall provision of operators serving local needs, and both main and top-up convenience requirements for residents. West End local centre appears to be struggling and has a substantial level of vacant units, which significantly adds to its poor overall health. There are few convenience operators and a high proportion of charity shops and takeaways, which do not improve the overall vitality and viability of the centre. However, due to its location, there are

West End opportunities to enhance the centre, whether that be through wholescale redevelopment or the consolidation of the existing uses to condense the centre and encourage residential uses elsewhere. This will need to be designed to be of a scale and function to successfully operate alongside the proposed retail and leisure scheme at Frontierland, due to its proximity to the site. Bowerham local centre has a good range of uses and a limited proportion vacant units. The centre serves an important role for the

Bowerham local resident population, which also consists of many students. The range of uses and overall environmental quality demonstrates the centre’s overall strength and positive health. Lancaster University has a well performing local centre serving the university campus, which has a significant residential population on

Lancaster site. The centre contains several national multiple retailers including University Spar, Greggs, WH Smiths, Costa Coffee and Subway. The centre performs an important role in meeting the needs of the local student population. Heysham Road local centre performs well, and consists of a range and mix of commercial operators plus key national multiples. It is well served by public transport and has a good level of on-street free car

Heysham Road parking. The centre performs an important role in meeting local resident’s needs and is the only local centre with more than one national multiple convenience operator, demonstrating its strength and popularity. Heysham Village local centre does not offer a range of retail and service uses typically found in defined local centres. The centre does Heysham Village not perform an important role for residents and does not have a convenience store to meet day to day needs. Overall, we do not

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Centre Summary consider that the Heysham Village centre performs a local centre function and is not contributing to the wider centre hierarchy in the District. Caton local centre provides a range of retailers and service operators in a relatively rural part of Lancaster. It serves a very important role for residents in meeting their everyday retail and service needs. The centre has a good level of free parking and the overall environmental quality is good. The Co-op convenience store provides residents with Caton a good top-up shopping facility, alongside the Boots pharmacy and Post Office, both also providing important services and facilities in an otherwise rural location. Providing local facilities will assist in reducing the need for residents to travel to meet their day-to-day shopping and service needs. Hornby local centre does not offer a wide range of commercial uses and was not busy at the time of the survey. There is a limited convenience provision and no comparison provision. The single convenience operator is also of a small size and therefore has a

Hornby limited overall offer for the surrounding residents. However, free car parking is available on the side of the streets and the overall environmental quality is good. Furthermore, the centre includes the Hornby Village Institute which is an important community facility serving the local population. Galgate local centre no longer performs as a local centre, in light of it consisting of just one single commercial unit, the Spar convenience outlet. Any previous commercial or service uses are no longer present in Galgate. Whilst the convenience operator is important for the local population, the centre does not perform as a local centre due to its Galgate limited overall provision and offer. Further, the centre has limited parking due to the busy nature of the road running through Galgate. As part of the wider analysis in this Study, we provide overall conclusions below in terms of the appropriateness of maintaining or creating a centre in Galgate. Bolton-le-Sands local centre is a small centre with a limited provision

Bolton-le-Sands of commercial operators. The Spar convenience store does perform an important role in serving the local catchment but there are limited

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Centre Summary other uses for residents to use. The centre was quiet on the day of the survey, which is unsurprising given the limited number of operators and the lack of overall provision. Silverdale local centre performs an important role in the northern periphery of the Lancaster District. The centre has a good range of commercial operators and the overall environmental quality is of a Silverdale high standard. The local community hall plays an important role in the centre, with weekly events such as health and fitness clubs, line dancing and bingo. There is a clear good sense of community spirit.

Recommended Boundaries 3.44 We have also considered the designation of local centre boundaries and, where appropriate provided a recommendation in respect of a suitable boundary taking account of national planning policy guidance. These can be found on the diversity of use plans at Appendix 4. In summary, we have recommended boundaries for all the existing local centres, excluding Hornby, Galgate and Lancaster University where it is not considered appropriate. The provision of, and distribution of services in both Hornby and Galgate (which only contains one retail and service unit) do not constitute the formation of a local centre boundary. Additionally, we do not consider it appropriate to designate a local centre boundary for Lancaster University as it is located within the campus and serves a qualitatively different function. Furthermore, the centre within the campus is not accessible to all (parking is not freely available and the campus is not within easy walking distance for any population outside of the university). We do consider it appropriate however to define the centre within the local plan, due to its important role it provides for the students in the campus. However, this role is a temporary function during term time and the centre is not accessible to all residents in Lancaster. We therefore recommend that the Council references the centre within the local plan but refers separately to the designation.

Conclusions 3.45 The assessment by WYG to analyse the health of each of the 13 existing local centres in Lancaster District has indicated that many of these are performing well, are vital and viable centres and perform a key role in serving the local population, whilst also continuing to complement the established centres of Lancaster city centre, Morecambe and Carnforth. This is particularly relevant for the centres defined as ‘urban’ within the Strategic Policies & Land

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Allocations Development Plan Document (DPD), with the ‘rural’ local centres serving more localised catchments.

3.46 It is apparent that West End local centre continues to struggle with high levels of vacancy and the poor environmental quality detracting from the overall health of the centre. There are positive signs (a new community/music facility on the edge of the centre and independent operators keen to open stores) but overall, the centre is vulnerable and requires serious intervention. We understand that the issues at West End are well established and that successes to date and future aspirations for the improvement in the area are set out in the West End Masterplan, which includes a section on the ‘commercial core’.

3.47 The Council continues to work with local traders to address the areas’ extensive issues, however, there is a more structural economic issue at play, which is due to socio-economic circumstances of the surrounding community which reflects the centres’ performance. We also consider it important for any future aspirations for West End to also fully have regard to the proposed retail and leisure development on the former Frontierland site. This is likely to meet some retail needs of residents in West End due to the proximity from the residential areas to the site. As such, any future plans for commercial uses in West End will need to be a of a scale and provision to be able to compete with the offer proposed at Frontierland.

3.48 WYG believe that, whilst the Spar convenience store at Galgate provides an important service for residents, the overall provision is so limited that the area is no longer performing its role as a local centre and as such, believe that its designation should be removed from the emerging Strategic Policies & Land Allocations Development Plan Document (DPD). A similar conclusion has been made regarding Heysham Village which also lacks in retail and leisure provision and no longer serves a typical local centre role. Furthermore, the location of Heysham Village in close proximity to Heysham Road local centre, ensures that residents have access to a range of services which are all very well provided for on Heysham Road. As such, we also recommend that Heysham Village local centres is removed from the emerging DPD.

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4.0 Distribution and Provision of Facilities Within Local Centres

4.01 The 13 local centres in the Study Area are distributed throughout Lancaster District. As an example, the distance of Carnforth district centre from the other settlements means that the services present here perform an important role in serving the needs of residents in the wider catchment area. The local centres perform a key supplementary role to Lancaster city centre and Morecambe and Carnforth district centres, for example Torrisholme and West End are located between Lancaster city centre and Morecambe district centre and therefore serve an important function for residents in this location. The location of the District’s foodstores are shown on the plan in Figure 4.1 below.

Figure 4.1: Location of Foodstores in Lancaster

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4.02 The quality and range of goods sold in the convenience stores in the District varies, with the term ‘convenience foodstore’ applying only to those units which sell a variety of food products, rather than general CTN (confectionery, tobacco and news) stores. In addition, the local centres often do not include large supermarkets within their boundary. The survey has identified the location of convenience stores within the district, considering units that have a net sales area of 500 sq.m or greater.

4.03 In terms of larger foodstores with a net sales area of 500 sq.m or greater, there are several gaps in the provision across the district. In particular, there are no larger-format convenience stores or supermarkets within the five ‘rural‘ local centres of Caton, Hornby, Galgate, Bolton- le-Sands and Silverdale. However, these centres are served by smaller convenience stores which provide a service suitable, and proportionate to meet the needs of the nearby population.

4.04 Heysham Village local centre does not currently accommodate any convenience goods stores. However, this is not considered to be a major issue given its location within a 10 minute walk time catchment of nearby Heysham Road local centre, which accommodates Co-operative Food and a Tesco Express convenience stores. Heysham Road is the only local centre that contains more than one national multiple convenience goods operator and is well served in terms of convenience provision, primarily meeting residents’ top-up shopping needs.

4.05 There is a clear deficiency of convenience stores to the south of the District, with just the Booths foodstore present. Whilst the resident population is currently less than the urban areas to the north and west of the city, the level of convenience provision is still deficient.

4.06 Residents to the south of the city centre are having to travel unsustainable distances to meet their main food shopping requirements, and the consumer choice (as promoted by the NPPF) is just not present. There is however, a wider selection of foodstores to the north west of the city centre, approaching Morecambe including both higher and lower end operators meeting the requirements of all residents and providing a range of consumer choice. It is also surprising that operators such as Lidl and Aldi are not currently absorbing a bigger proportion of the convenience market within Lancaster as a whole, particularly given their expansion plans. We discuss in more detail below the potential to increase the convenience offer to the south of the city in Section 6.

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Location of Pharmacies 4.07 The site visits identified that pharmacies are located within six of the thirteen existing local centres. However, it is important to note that there are a number of pharmacies across the district, which are not located in defined centres. As such, residents typically have a good access to pharmacies on foot. A high proportion are also located in close proximity to doctors’ surgeries, providing an accessible offer for those attending appointments.

Location of Post Offices 4.08 The review of local centres has demonstrated that there are Post Offices within eight of the thirteen local centres. In terms of the gaps in provision, two of the local centres that do not currently accommodate a post office are defined as ‘rural’ (Galgate and Bolton-le-Sands). There are however post boxes located within, or near all of these centres which allow for basic postal needs to be met by residents without travelling elsewhere. In terms of the urban local centres, there is no post office in Torrisholme. However, the wider area surrounding Torrisholme is well served, with nearby Bare and Westgate local centres both accommodating post offices. The same can be said for Heysham Village, which doesn’t currently accommodate a Post Office but is located within the 10 minute walk time catchment for Heysham Road which does. Overall, the locations of Post Offices are well distributed throughout the district. There are however some gaps in the provision, particularly around several the rural local centres although this is supplemented by the presence of post boxes.

Summary 4.09 The study has undertaken a detailed quantitative and qualitative assessment of the retail and service provision within the 13 existing local centres in the district. It is clear that the centres play a key role in supporting and enhancing the role of Lancaster city centre, as well as Morecambe and Carnforth district centres by providing a more localised day-to-day service for residents. In addition, the local centres enable the local population to travel shorter distances to access basic retail and service provision in their area.

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5.0 Assessment of Proposed Local Centres

5.01 At the outset it should be emphasised that the assessment which follows seeks to provide an indicative assessment of the type of retail facilities which could be supported at the strategic residential allocations of Bailrigg Garden Village, East Lancaster and North Lancaster, but the analysis has been undertaken in the absence of a detailed proposal in front of us.

5.02 The current allocations within the emerging local plan are strategic allocations only, with no specific designations in terms of where precisely the residential development will be located. Further, until detailed phasing of the residential elements of each of the strategic sites has been developed, the definitive plans in terms of scale and nature of local centres cannot be taken forward. We recommend that further advice is sought when detailed plans are brought together at future stages of the local plan preparation. We note that at this stage, the proposed locations of the local centres on the Council’s proposals maps are centrally located in relation to the residential allocations and therefore, the specific locations of the centres are likely to change dependent on how the strategic housing allocations proceed.

5.03 Accordingly, it may be the case that all three areas could, in practice, appropriately retain a greater level of expenditure than that which has been assumed in this assessment. Such a scenario may not be problematic as it would mean that residents at Bailrigg Garden Village, East Lancaster and North Lancaster were able to source and purchase a greater number of goods locally without travelling further afield.

Update of Retail Capacity Position 5.04 As part of the local centre study, WYG was also asked to revisit the quantitative capacity model as provided within the Lancaster Retail Review. As such, we have undertaken an update of the model to include the latest data available to us and added in any additional retail commitments which have come forward since the publication of the Study. The model has been updated to include:

▪ An update in population forecasts for the Study Area Zones; ▪ An update of the retail expenditure forecasts for both convenience and comparison goods retailing; ▪ An update of latest expenditure and sales efficiency growth rates as taken from the Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 14 (published in November 2016); and ▪ An update of retail commitments within Lancaster.

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5.05 The update has again utilised the original empirical research (shopping survey of 1,700 households), undertaken by NEMS Market Research Limited in April 2013. The Study Area is the same of that adopted by the 2006 and 2013 Retail Studies, which covers Lancaster, parts of South Lakeland, Barrow and Eden to the north; and parts of Wyre, Ribble Valley, Preston and Craven to the south and east of Lancaster. This update also draws upon current Experian population and expenditure data (published October and November 2016) in order to establish the up to date position with regard to both convenience and comparison goods capacity.

5.06 The population within each postal code sector has been calculated using Experian Micromarketer G3 data (2015 estimate, which was issued in November 2016). The baseline population data takes into consideration the findings of the recent 2011 Census release which has then been projected forward by Experian (using growth rates derived from ONS population projections) using the latest mid-year population projections from 2012 and are based on Experian’s ‘demographic component model’ which builds ONS population projects, age/gender bans and migration and death rates etc.

5.07 As was the case in the latest retail update produced by WYG for Lancaster Council, we have considered the retail growth based on the baseline position and the employment led position based on the figures contained in the Housing Requirements Study prepared by Turley Associates (dated August 2013).

5.08 Copies of the updated capacity model are included at Appendix 8. The findings of the updated capacity assessment have then been used to undertake the analysis and assessment of new local centres as set out below.

5.09 In terms of the three strategic sites of Bailrigg Garden Village, East Lancaster and North Lancaster, it is useful to establish that Bailrigg Garden Village is in Zone 3, and the allocations comprising East and North Lancaster are situated within Zone 1. We have not apportioned the level of growth of population to the capacity models included at Appendix 8 so as to ensure that the models appropriately reflect those previously adopted by the Council.

5.10 The Retail Study identifies convenience and comparison goods per capita expenditure across a defined Study Area, and also identifies patterns of retail behaviour across the same Study Area. As such, it is possible to estimate the likely additional future convenience and comparison goods expenditure which would be available in Lancaster District as a consequence of any population increase greater than that forecast by Experian (our preferred provider of population and expenditure data). As we note below, we are concentrating in this

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study on the three strategic allocations of Bailrigg Garden Village, East Lancaster and North Lancaster.

5.11 The tables below provide an approximation of the increased convenience and comparison expenditure which would result from each additional thousand persons increase in population (up to 9,000 persons).

5.12 Zones 1, 2, 3 and 6 which form part of the defined Study Area broadly equate to the Lancaster District authority area. As such, in estimating estimated expenditure increase associated with additional population growth, we have assumed that:

▪ the additional per capita expenditure growth equates to the mean average of the per capita expenditure figures for Zones 1, 2, 3 and 6 identified by the Retail Study; ▪ the convenience and comparison goods Study Area market share for Lancaster District would apply to any additional expenditure arising from increases in Study Area population (i.e. not all of it will be available to facilities within Lancaster); ▪ any additional convenience goods floorspace would trade at a sales density of between £6,993 per sq.m and £12,987 per sq.m at 2031 (considered to be reflective of the respective trading performance of discount foodstore operators and the ‘big four’ supermarket operators); and ▪ any additional comparison goods floorspace would trade at a sales density of between £3,927 per sq.m and £6,546 per sq.m at 2031 (considered to be reflective of the likely minimum and maximum trading performance of comparison goods floorspace in Lancaster District).

5.13 Table 5.1 indicates that every additional thousand persons would generate approximately £2.3m of additional convenience goods expenditure. Based on Lancaster District’s existing market share (of 34.7%), this would mean that around £0.8m of additional convenience goods expenditure would be available to retailers in Lancaster at 2031. A 6,000 person increase in population would result in approximately £4.8m of additional convenience goods expenditure being available to Lancaster which could support up to 700 sq.m of convenience goods floorspace.

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Table 5.1: Potential Additional Convenience Goods Expenditure Available to Lancaster District at 2031

Total Lancaster Lancaster Minimum Maximum Average Increase in Market Additional Convenience Convenience Increase Convenience Study Area Share Convenience Goods Goods in Goods Per Convenience Convenience Goods Floorspace Floorspace Population Capita Goods Goods Expenditure Requirement Requirement Spend (£) Expenditure Expenditure (£m) (sq.m) (sq.m) (£m) (%)

3,000 2,300 6.9 34.7 2.4 187 347

6,000 2,300 13.8 34.7 4.8 374 695

9,000 2,300 20.7 34.7 7.2 561 1,042

5.14 Table 5.2 indicates that every additional thousand persons would generate approximately £3.5m of additional comparison goods expenditure. Based on Lancaster District’s existing market share (of 31.3%), this would mean that around £1.1m of additional comparison goods expenditure would be available to retailers in Lancaster at 2031. Such a sum could support up to approximately 250 sq.m of comparison goods floorspace. A 6,000 person increase in population would result in approximately £6.6m of additional comparison goods expenditure being available to Lancaster which could support up to 1,500 sq.m of comparison goods floorspace.

Table 5.2: Potential Additional Comparison Goods Expenditure Available to Lancaster District at 2031 Total Lancaster Lancaster Minimum Maximum Average Increase in Market Additional Convenience Convenience Comparison Study Area Share Increase in Convenience Goods Goods Goods Per Comparison Convenience Population Goods Floorspace Floorspace Capita Spend Goods Goods Expenditure Requirement Requirement (£) Expenditure Expenditure (£m) (sq.m) (sq.m) (£m) (%)

3,000 3,500 10.5 31.3 3.3 458 763 6,000 3,500 21.0 31.3 6.6 915 1,525 9,000 3,500 31.5 31.3 9.9 1,373 2,288

5.15 The above tables provide a broad-brush analysis of the potential increase in available expenditure across the District based on an overall increase of up to 9,000 persons. Whilst this is useful to establish what the increase could equate to in expenditure terms, this is assessed on a District-wide basis. The calculations below look more specifically at how WYG consider the three strategic housing allocations could function and what level of expenditure the residents in each case could retain.

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Bailrigg Garden Village (South Lancaster) 5.16 Draft policy SG1 of the Strategic Policies and Land Allocations DPD relates specifically the strategic allocation of Bailrigg Garden Village. The Policy states that once fully completed, Bailrigg Garden Village will accommodate approximately 3,500 dwellings by 2033, plus a number of opportunities for employment and economic growth. The Policy specifically refers to the need to provide a new commercial, community and retail centre on the land at Lawson’s Bridge, to meet the basic local needs of residents in South Lancaster. It is on this basis that we undertake the assessment. A copy of the proposals map showing the allocation is at Appendix 8.

Population 5.17 Policy SG1 states that over the plan period, Bailrigg Garden Village has the potential to deliver up to 3,500 dwellings. Based on an average of 2.4 persons per dwelling, we estimate that Bailrigg Garden Village could accommodate a population of approximately 8,400.

Table 5.3: Proposed Housing and Population Associated with Bailrigg Garden Village Proposal Bailrigg Garden Village Dwellings/Population Dwellings 3,500 Population 8,400

5.18 Taking the population of 8,400 and an average per capita convenience spend per person of £2,3211 (adjusted to exclude Special Forms of Trading (SFT) at 2031 in accordance with the Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 14), we estimate that within Bailrigg Garden Village, once fully completed, there will be an available convenience expenditure of £20.3m overall. We consider that 70% of this available expenditure will be spent on ‘main food’ shopping (i.e. the typical big weekly convenience shop), and 30% will be spent on the weekly ‘top-up’ shopping trips (i.e. the smaller basket shops, purchasing smaller day-to-day items such as bread, milk, butter etc), according with the findings of the Lancaster Retail Study. This equates to £13.6m available for main food shopping and £5.8m for top-up food shopping from residents in Bailrigg Garden Village. This does not take account of any potential phasing of residential development in Bailrigg Garden Village, which due to the scale and nature of the proposal, is likely to happen.

1 This is the average convenience per capita spend from the updated capacity model for Zones 1, 2, 3 and 6 www.wyg.com creative minds safe hands 42

Table 5.4: Estimated Available Convenience Goods Expenditure in Bailrigg Garden Village Estimated Estimated Per Capita Estimated Available Available ‘Main Convenience Available ‘Top Population at Convenience Food’ Expenditure at Up’ Convenience 2031 Goods Convenience 2031 without Expenditure at Expenditure at Expenditure at SFT (£)2 2031 (£m) 2031 (£m) 2031 (£m) 8,400 £2,321 £19.5m £13.6m £5.8m 1 Per capita convenience goods expenditure sourced from Experian MMG3 data report utilised in the Retail Study 2 Expenditure growth and allowance for special forms of trading sourced from Appendix 3 of ERPBN 14 In 2015 prices

5.19 Table 5.5 summarises the same exercise in respect of comparison goods expenditure (which we provide as a single estimate). Again, based on a total population of 8,400 and taking a per capita comparison expenditure of £3,5002, we calculate that the residential population within Bailrigg Garden Village could generate a total comparison expenditure of approximately £29.4m. Comparison expenditure covers all types of non-food goods, such as clothing and footwear, recreation goods, electrical goods and DIY goods.

Table 5.5: Estimated Available Comparison Goods Expenditure in Bailrigg Garden Village

Estimated Per Capita Available Comparison Comparison Population Expenditure at Goods 2031 without Expenditure at SFT (£)2 2017(£m)

8,400 £3,500 £29.4m 1 Per capita comparison is a WYG average based on the findings of the Retail Study from Zones 1 and 2 2 Expenditure growth and allowance for special forms of trading sourced from Appendix 3 of ERPBN 14 In 2015 prices

Proportion of Retail Expenditure Claimed by Local Centre Facilities 5.20 Given the scale of the proposed strategic site at Bailrigg Garden Village (relative to other settlements), it is inevitable that a significant proportion of the identified estimated expenditure within the settlement will be spent elsewhere. Accordingly, it is necessary to consider what proportion of the expenditure which would originate within Bailrigg Garden Village would be retained within it.

2 The average per capita comparison expenditure at 2031 is in fact much higher than £3,500 but we consider that the figure will be skewed due to the rural nature of Zones 3 and 6. We are of the view that the per capita comparison expenditure would be more in line with the UK average of £3,500 due to the mix of residents likely to be attracted to the strategic allocations www.wyg.com creative minds safe hands 43

5.21 In this regard, we have reviewed existing shopping patterns within the Retail Study Zone 3 (as identified by the Retail Study household survey) and have also given consideration to the particular characteristics of Bailrigg Garden Village (including its location). In reviewing Zone 3 shopping patterns, it is important to recognise that the zone covers a relatively large area and that it is likely that Bailrigg Garden Village residents are likely to exhibit different patterns of behaviour to those that are apparent across the zone as a whole. Notwithstanding this, the survey is a helpful starting point when considering Bailrigg Garden Village residents’ shopping patterns.

Convenience Goods 5.22 We have given consideration to existing shopping patterns and the general type of facilities which would be expected within the Bailrigg Garden Village settlement which seeks to provide for some degree of self-sufficiency. We believe that a settlement of circa 8,400 persons would be able to support a convenience grocery store which would meet most ‘top up’ food shopping needs most of the time and a relatively high proportion of ‘main’ food shopping needs.

5.23 When reviewing the existing convenience shopping patterns within Zone 3, high proportions of main food shopping trips are attracted to the Sainsbury’s on Cable Street (34.9%), the Asda in Morecambe (20.6%) and the Asda on Ovangle Road in Lancaster (11.6%). Zone 3 is currently a relatively rural zone, with limited existing convenience provision. As such, the retention rate of convenience spending is low within the zone and residents are having to travel to destinations outside of the zone to meet their main food shopping needs. We consider that the proposed population, which would substantially increase the population within Zone 3, could materially alter the overall retention rate for main food shopping trips within the zone, not only from the new residents but also for existing residents in the zone. We therefore consider there is a real potential to provide a convenience store that meets a high level of residents’ main food convenience needs, particularly due to the limited provision of main food stores otherwise.

5.24 Accordingly, in considering future shopping patterns, we have assumed that all such ‘top up’ convenience goods expenditure which originates within Bailrigg Garden Village can be retained there (we accept that, in actuality, a small amount of ‘top up’ expenditure would likely ‘leak’ from the settlement, but believe that this will be counterbalanced by inflow from beyond Bailrigg Garden Village).

5.25 In terms of main food shopping expenditure, we envisage that Bailrigg Garden Village could accommodate a medium sized foodstore to meet residents’ shopping needs due to the level of www.wyg.com creative minds safe hands 44

convenience expenditure likely to become available from the proposed residents in Bailrigg Garden Village. This is also of importance due to the lack of convenience provision in the south of the district as we noted in Section 4 above. Therefore, there is the real potential for a foodstore in Bailrigg Garden Village to attract expenditure from other residents in close proximity to but outside of the Garden Village, who otherwise do not have a good range of main food convenience operators in walking distance or even a short drivetime. A medium sized foodstore would provide sufficient space to accommodate an operator large enough to serve the residents in the Garden Village, along with other residents in close proximity, whilst being consistent with the types of operators likely to wish to serve such catchments.

5.26 However, it will be important to consider the phasing of any such scheme to ensure that the level of population will be sufficient to support a foodstore of this size. Therefore, it may be that the centre is not provided until a specified number of dwellings are completed (i.e. 40%).

5.27 Further, we consider that Bailrigg Garden Village could also provide additional food retailers (such as a butcher, baker and similar). Accordingly, we assume that around 60% of total main food expenditure originating within Bailrigg Garden Village could be retained there. On this basis, we set out our assumed convenience goods shopping pattern of the Bailrigg Garden Village residents below at Tables 5.6 and 5.7. We have multiplied the assumed market share with the available ‘top up’ and main food shopping expenditure at 2017 in order to calculate the convenience goods expenditure which could be claimed by Bailrigg Garden Village. Tables 5.6 and 5.7 set out our estimate that Bailrigg Garden Village could secure a total of £13.5m of convenience expenditure (i.e. £8.2m from main food shopping and £5.3m from top-up food shopping).

Table 5.6: Main Food Shopping Market Shares and Expenditure at 2031

Bailrigg Garden Destination Market Share Village

Bailrigg Garden Village 60.0% £8.2m Other Zone 3 Retailers 5.0% £0.7m Retailers within Lancaster Administrative Boundary 35.0% £4.8m Total 100.0% £13.6m Note: Assumed WYG market share multiplied by identified main food expenditure to generate expenditure estimate under each of the three scenarios

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Table 5.7: ‘Top Up’ Food Shopping Market Shares and Expenditure at 2031 Bailrigg Garden Destination Market Share Village Bailrigg Garden Village 90.0% £5.3m Other Zone 3 Retailers 5.0% £0.3m Retailers within Lancaster Administrative Boundary 5.0% £0.3m Total 100.0% £5.9m Note: Assumed WYG market share multiplied by identified ‘top up’ food expenditure to generate expenditure estimate under each of the three scenarios

Comparison Goods 5.28 In considering likely Bailrigg Garden Village comparison goods shopping patterns, we have once more reviewed existing shopping patterns and the general type of facilities which we would expect to be located within Bailrigg Garden Village. We believe that a settlement of circa 8,400 persons would only likely to be able to support a limited comparison goods offer, which would focus around the type of goods for which shoppers may only visit one shop to source (in our view, this type of comparison goods retailer includes pharmacies, florists, card shops and similar). We are of the view that the residents’ principal comparison shopping needs will be met in other existing large comparison retail destinations, due to the high level of operators present and the difficulty for local or district centres to compete with these existing large destinations.

5.29 Accordingly, in considering future shopping patterns, we have assumed that only 10% of all Bailrigg Garden Village comparison goods expenditure will be retained within the local area and the remainder will be spent elsewhere. In fact, we consider that a very significant proportion of comparison goods expenditure would likely be claimed by Lancaster city centre due to its very strong offer and relatively proximate location. As such, based on our calculations in Table 5.8 below, we estimate that Bailrigg Garden Village would retain £5.9m of comparison goods expenditure generated within the new settlement, with the remaining expenditure being drawn to facilities likely to be in Lancaster city centre and other out of centre retail park and solus retail warehouses. These shopping patterns are supported by the findings of the Lancaster District Retail Study.

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Table 5.8: Comparison Shopping Market Shares and Expenditure at 2031

Bailrigg Garden Destination Market Share Village

Bailrigg Garden Village 20.0% £5.9m Other Zone 3 Retailers 1.0% £0.3m Retailers within Lancaster Administrative Boundary 79.0% £23.2m Total 100.0% £29.4m

Retail Floorspace Requirement 5.30 The estimated expenditure which could be claimed by Bailrigg Garden Village retail facilities can be converted to a floorspace requirement to provide an indication of the need which should be planned for.

5.31 The floorspace requirement will vary dependent on the type of retailer proposed and the type of goods traded. For example, the ‘main four’ foodstore operators3 have traditionally achieved higher sales densities than most other food retailers. In the case of comparison goods, non- bulky goods retailers (i.e. clothing and footwear operators or specific tailored electronic operators) tend to achieve higher sales densities than bulky goods retailers. However, within the bulky goods sector itself there is significant variation, with electrical retailers tending to have a much higher sales density than those selling DIY or furniture goods. Accordingly, it is important to take account of the type of retailers which would likely take floorspace at Bailrigg Garden Village (and elsewhere) when considering the floorspace requirement, which are likely to be small format independent comparison operators. This is also based on the current comparison provision across other local centres in the District, which is limited. The district’s main comparison offer is located within the city centre, followed by the two district centres and out of centre provision. This is unlikely to change regardless of the creation of a new local centre at Bailrigg Garden Village and whether a wider range of comparison operators at Bailrigg could compete with the city centre in particular has to be considered. As such, whilst we note that there will be a substantial number of new residents within the Garden Village and the potential for the strategic allocation to create the need for a wider range of facilities, ensuring that such facilities are maintained in a viable manner is the key consideration. This is also of relevance when considering the Garden Village status and the emphasis apportioned to creating a sustainable and self-contained growth, promoting both residential and economic development.

3 Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Tesco www.wyg.com creative minds safe hands 47

5.32 Whilst on paper there may be a sufficient number of residents and level of expenditure to support a wider range of comparison goods retailers, consideration has to be given to the draw of the city centre and other key retail destinations both within and outside of the District in determining where residents will go to undertake their comparison shops. It is on this basis that we are not recommending a substantial quantum (i.e. a new retail park) of comparison floorspace within Bailrigg Garden Village as we do not necessarily consider that a higher level of floorspace could be viably supported.

Convenience Goods 5.33 In respect of convenience goods, the Retail Study converted the identified expenditure surplus into floorspace requirements based on occupation by either a ‘main four’ operator or by a discount operator. This is on the basis that substantial additional needs tend to be met by new large foodstores. However, the position at Bailrigg Garden Village is somewhat different as no provision currently exists in close proximity and that which will likely come forward is likely to be relatively modest in scale. In order to provide for a sustainable development, we consider that it is prudent to first plan for a general convenience grocery store and to then consider the level of additional floorspace which could be supported. We envisage that such additional floorspace could be occupied by a range of speciality food operators (such as a butcher, baker and so on).

5.34 Based on the above, we consider that there is the potential for the population at Bailrigg Garden Village to retain approximately £13.5m of convenience expenditure within the urban extension. Whilst this could accommodate a discount foodstore such as Lidl or Aldi, we do not consider that a store of this size (approximately 2,500 sq.m gross) would meet the requirements of the residents. Instead, we would advise that a store of up to 1,500 sq.m gross could be supported, with a range of smaller independent operators (butchers, bakers, newsagents) provided alongside. We also consider that a format of centre of that nature would better meet the needs of the residents in Bailrigg Garden Village. Based on an average sales density of £6,993 per sq.m at 2031 (use to include all potential types of convenience operators), we estimate that Bailrigg Garden Village could support up to 2,000 sq.m of convenience goods floorspace.

5.35 However, as stated above, it is useful to also consider the current deficiency in convenience stores and general floorspace to the south of the city centre. We are aware of the proposed relocation and expansion of the Booths store along Scotforth Road (permission reference 10/0025/FUL), which forms the northern section of the Bailrigg Garden Village strategic allocation. We consider that this, should it be delivered, would provide a much needed

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convenience facility in this part of the District. However, it has to be noted that the proposed operator (albeit we acknowledge that the operator could inevitably change) is high end and would not meet everyone’s requirements and that the Council should plan to encourage consumer choice. We consider that a foodstore as part of the Bailrigg Garden Village local centre allocation would increase that choice to the south of the city. We would advise that once the store and local centre has established itself and shopping patterns ‘bedded in’ at Bailrigg Garden Village, further work to establish whether there is a requirement for an additional store should then be established.

5.36 Looking at existing local centres in Lancaster, the only defined centre which includes convenience floorspace of this scale is Westgate local centre (due to the centre accommodating both a Co-op (679 sq.m gross) and a Lidl foodstore (1,549 sq.m gross)). This is an unusual circumstance for local centres, due to the size of the stores and the wider offer convenience stores of this size provide. All other centres (expect the West End local centre) have a convenience provision of 600 sq.m or less, which better reflects the typical local centre offer. We discuss this in more detail below.

Comparison Goods 5.37 Turning to comparison goods, our approach in converting the identified available expenditure to a floorspace requirement for Bailrigg Garden Village again departs from the general approach utilised in the Retail Study because of the nature of the local centres and the scale of comparison goods offer local centres typically provide.

5.38 Whilst our Retail Study methodology assumed that additional comparison goods floorspace would generally trade at a sales density of between £3,927 per sq.m and £6,545 per sq.m at 2031, we consider the former, lower figure to be of direct relevance to the quantum of floorspace that would be required in Bailrigg Garden Village itself (due to the likely limited scale and reach of Bailrigg Garden Village’s retail facilities).

5.39 As stated above, we consider that Bailrigg Garden Village would retain approximately £4.3m of the local comparison expenditure generated by the new residents in the urban extension. Based on an average sales density of £3,927 per sq.m at 2031 (which smaller local retailers are more likely to achieve), we envisage that the local centre could accommodate approximately 1,500 sq.m of comparison goods floorspace. It is important to note that a proportion of this capacity would be absorbed by a foodstore and we would not consider it viable or feasible to promote a substantial quantum of floorspace for comparison retailers as it is unlikely that the resident population in Bailrigg Garden Village would viably support such

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retailers, particularly given the strong comparison retailer presence elsewhere in Lancaster. We consider that small independent operators may seek representation in local or district centres but that the demand is unlikely to be high, particularly until shopping patterns are well established. Further, residents are likely to continue to travel to Lancaster city centre to meet their comparison shopping needs. There may be requirements from national multiples such as Boots, but we consider that the principal demand will be from local comparison operators.

5.40 Again, looking at the provision of commercial floorspace in existing centres, Bare provides 754 sq.m of comparison floorspace and Torrisholme provides 460 sq.m of comparison floorspace. Typical operators such as charity shops, florists, pharmacies and specialist sewing and dancewear shops were present in local centres, and are the types of operators Bailrigg Garden Village could seek to attract. It is unlikely that national multiple comparison operators (clothing and footwear etc) would be attracted to small defined centres which typically only serve a localised catchment, and any future provision needs to be considered realistically on this basis.

5.41 We also consider it necessary for the Council to consider whether the provision of two smaller local centres, rather than one large local or district centre may be more viable and better meet residents’ needs. This would ensure that local centre provision is also accessible to a higher proportion of residents, instead of providing one defined centre which has the potential to be less accessible to some residents.

Other Facilities 5.42 Table 5.8 below sets out the estimated number of households required to support other facilities such as a health centre library, post office and GP surgery. Based on the level of dwellings proposed, we consider that the centre could support a GP surgery, Post Office and potentially a community centre should the demand arise. We therefore consider it appropriate to plan for these three uses in particular but that it is unlikely that the extension could support a health centre or library.

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Table 5.9: Facilities and the Number of Households they Serve (as Amended from Integration of Parish Plans into the Wider Systems of Local Government report) Number of Households Facility Required to Support Specified Facility GP’s Surgery 1,000 to 1,200 Post Office 2,000 to 4,000 Community centre 2,800 to 6,000 Health centre 3,600 to 4,800 Library 4,800 to 12,000 Source: Extracted from Integration of Parish Plans into the Wider System of Local Government report (DEFRA, July 2007)

5.43 In addition, it is highly likely that the retail floorspace could also be supplemented by retail services (such as hairdressers and beauticians) and leisure services (such as pubs and restaurants). Such uses are not generally considered by quantitative need assessments but, in our experience, can often account for between a quarter and a half of commercial floorspace in a local parade or Local Centre. Leisure services, in particular, also often fall within an A1 Use Class bur are not accounted for in considering convenience and comparison goods need. Accordingly, any requirement for such floorspace is in addition to the above identified convenience and comparison goods needs. Comparing the provision in existing centres across the District, typical services include hairdressers, laundrettes, opticians and Post Offices. Again, it is these types of operators which will need to be sought to occupy units in the new local centres in the strategic locations.

East Lancaster 5.44 Draft Policy SG8 of the Strategic Policies and Land Allocations DPD relates to Land at Cuckoo Farm/Ridge Farm and East Lancaster states that the Council expect that once fully developed, the site will accommodate approximately 1,000 dwellings. A copy of the proposals map showing the allocation is at Appendix 8.

Table 5.10: Proposed Housing and Population Associated with East Lancaster Proposal Bailrigg Garden Village Dwellings/Population Dwellings 1,000 Population 2,400

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5.45 Taking the population of 2,400 and an average per capita convenience spend per person of £2,3214 (adjusted to exclude Special Forms of Trading (SFT) in accordance with the Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 14) at 2031, we estimate that within East Lancaster, once fully completed, there will be an available convenience expenditure of £5.6m overall, which is clearly considerably less than that available within Bailrigg Garden Village due to the smaller nature of the strategic proposal.

5.46 We consider that 70% of this available expenditure will be spent on ‘main food’ shopping (i.e. the typical big weekly convenience shop), and 30% will be spent on the weekly ‘top-up’ shopping trips (i.e. the smaller basket shops, purchasing smaller day-to-day items such as bread, milk, butter etc). This equates to £3.9m available for main food shopping and £1.7m for top-up food shopping from residents in East Lancaster.

Table 5.11: Estimated Available Convenience Goods Expenditure in East Lancaster Estimated Estimated Per Capita Estimated Available Available ‘Main Convenience Available ‘Top Population at Convenience Food’ Expenditure at Up’ Convenience 2031 Goods Convenience 2031 without Expenditure at Expenditure at Expenditure at SFT (£)2 2031 (£m) 2031 (£m) 2031 (£m) 2,400 £2,376 £5.6m £3.9m £1.7m 1 Per capita convenience goods expenditure sourced from Experian MMG3 data report utilised in the Retail Study 2 Expenditure growth and allowance for special forms of trading sourced from Appendix 3 of ERPBN 14 In 2015 prices

5.47 Table 5.12 summarises the same exercise in respect of comparison goods expenditure (which we provide as a single estimate). Again, based on a total population of 2,400 and taking a per capita comparison expenditure of £3,500, we calculate that the residential population within East Lancaster could generate a total comparison expenditure of approximately £8.4m. Comparison expenditure covers all types of non-food goods, such as clothing and footwear, recreation goods, electrical goods and DIY goods.

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Table 5.12: Estimated Available Comparison Goods Expenditure in East Lancaster

Estimated Per Capita Available Comparison Comparison Population Expenditure at Goods 2031 without Expenditure at SFT (£)2 2031 (£m)

2,400 £3,500 £8.4m 1 Per capita convenience goods expenditure sourced from Experian MMG3 data report utilised in the Retail Study 2 Expenditure growth and allowance for special forms of trading sourced from Appendix 3 of ERPBN 14 In 2015 prices

Proportion of Retail Expenditure Claimed by Local Centre Facilities 5.48 Given the scale of the proposed strategic site at East Lancaster (relative to other settlements), it is inevitable that a significant proportion of the identified estimated expenditure within the settlement will be spent elsewhere. Accordingly, it is necessary to consider what proportion of the expenditure which would originate within East Lancaster would be retained within it.

Convenience Goods 5.49 We have considered existing shopping patterns and the general type of facilities which would be expected within the East Lancaster settlement which seeks to provide for some degree of self-sufficiency. We believe that a settlement of circa 2,400 persons would be able to support a convenience grocery store which would meet most ‘top up’ food shopping needs most of the time, similarly to existing local centres across the District. Local centres such as Caton and Silverdale (i.e. rural centres) have a population of less than 2,000 in a 10 minute walktime. As such, we are able to establish that whilst these local centres are situated in typically rural areas, the local centres still include a top-up convenience operator (Co-op in Caton and Silverdale) which are both important functions of the centres, and act as anchors to the wider uses.

5.50 Accordingly, in considering future shopping patterns, we have assumed that all such ‘top up’ convenience goods expenditure which originates within East Lancaster can be retained there (we accept that, in actuality, a small amount of ‘top up’ expenditure would likely ‘leak’ from the settlement, but believe that this will be counterbalanced by inflow from beyond East Lancaster).

5.51 In terms of main food shopping expenditure, we do not expect that East Lancaster would likely accommodate a very large food supermarket or a food superstore. However, if East Lancaster provided additional food retailers (such as a butcher, baker and similar), we believe that there is potential for it to retain a limited proportion of the main food shopping

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expenditure which originates within the settlement. Accordingly, we assume that around 30% of total main food expenditure originating within East Lancaster could be retained there. Instead, we believe that residents will typically source food goods that can’t be sourced very locally from larger foodstores and centres elsewhere in the Lancaster administrative boundary.

5.52 On this basis, we have calculated that the East Lancaster residents could spend approximately £1.2m of the main food convenience expenditure in a local centre and £1.5m of top-up convenience expenditure, totalling in £2.7m of convenience expenditure available to support new floorspace in a local centre in East Lancaster.

Comparison Goods 5.53 In considering likely East Lancaster comparison goods shopping patterns, we have once more reviewed existing shopping patterns and the general type of facilities which we would expect to be located within Bailrigg Garden Village. We believe that a settlement of circa 2,400 persons would only likely to be able to support a limited comparison goods offer, which would focus around the type of goods for which shoppers may only visit one shop to source (in our view, this type of comparison goods retailer includes pharmacies, florists, card shops and similar).

5.54 Accordingly, in considering future shopping patterns, we have assumed that only 10% of all East Lancaster comparison goods expenditure will be retained within the local area and the remainder will be spent elsewhere. In fact, we consider that a very significant proportion of comparison goods expenditure would likely be claimed by Lancaster city centre due to its very strong offer and relatively proximate location. As such, based on our calculations above, we estimate that East Lancaster would retain £0.8m of comparison goods expenditure generated within the new settlement, with the remaining expenditure being drawn to facilities likely to be in Lancaster city centre.

Retail Floorspace Requirement 5.55 The estimated expenditure which could be claimed by East Lancaster retail facilities can be converted to a floorspace requirement in order to provide an indication of the need which should be planned for. The floorspace requirement will vary dependent on the type of retailer proposed and the type of goods traded. For example, the ‘main four’ foodstore operators5 have traditionally achieved higher sales densities than most other food retailers. In the case of comparison goods, non-bulky goods retailers tend to achieve higher sales densities than

5 Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Tesco www.wyg.com creative minds safe hands 54

bulky goods retailers. However, within the bulky goods sector itself there is significant variation, with electrical retailers tending to have a much higher sales density than those selling DIY or furniture goods. Accordingly, it is important to take account of the type of retailers which would likely take floorspace at East Lancaster (and elsewhere) when considering the floorspace requirement.

Convenience Goods 5.56 We have assumed that if a small convenience store was to be provided in East Lancaster as part of the local centre provision, it is likely to be operated by retailers such as Co-op, Costcutter or Londis, or as an express format of one of the main four (i.e. Tesco Express, Sainsbury’s Local etc). As such, we have applied an average sales density of £6,993 per sq.m at 2031 and we consider that the available convenience expenditure within East Lancaster could support approximately 380 sq.m of convenience goods floorspace, which suitably fits in with floorspace requirements of typical small format convenience operators (such as Co-op, Tesco Express, Sainsbury’s Local and so on).

Comparison Goods 5.57 Turning to comparison goods, as set out above for Bailrigg Garden Village, we have applied a sales density of £3,500 per sq.m due to the type of retailers likely to trade in small local centres. As such, we calculate that the estimated level of comparison expenditure could support approximately 200 sq.m of comparison goods floorspace. This would equate to approximately two or three small comparison retailers, again comparable to the level of provision in small local centres across the District.

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Other Facilities 5.58 Based on the estimated population of 2,400 residents, we calculate that the local centre in East Lancaster could support a GP Surgery and Post Office but is unlikely to be able to support any additional facility.

Table 5.13: Facilities and the Number of Households they Serve Number of Households Facility Required to Support Specified Facility GP’s Surgery 1,000 to 1,200 Post Office 2,000 to 4,000 Community centre 2,800 to 6,000 Health centre 3,600 to 4,800 Library 4,800 to 12,000

5.59 As was the case with Bailrigg Garden Village, it is highly likely that the retail floorspace could also be supplemented by retail services (such as hairdressers and beauticians) and leisure services (such as pubs and restaurants). Such uses are not generally considered by quantitative need assessments but, in our experience, can often account for between a quarter and a half of commercial floorspace in a local parade or Local Centre. Leisure services also often fall within an A1 Use Class bur are not accounted for in considering convenience and comparison goods need. Accordingly, any requirement for such floorspace is in addition to the above identified convenience and comparison goods needs.

North Lancaster 5.60 Policies SG10 and SG11 cover strategic sites in North Lancaster. Policy SG10 specifically covers Land at Hammerton Hall and states that the Council expects the site to accommodate approximately 500 dwellings and Policy SG11 covers Land at Beaumont Hall, which states that the Council also expects the site to accommodate 500 dwellings. Policy SG12 then specifically covers the required new infrastructure to support both strategic allocations, and states that the Council envisages that a new local centre on land within site SG11 will be provided, including a range of local services and community facilities for new residents in North Lancaster. It is on this basis that we have considered the potential requirements, i.e. that a total of 1,000 new dwellings could be provided. A copy of the proposals map showing the allocation is at Appendix 8.

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Population 5.61 Policy SG1 states that over the plan period, North Lancaster has the potential to deliver up to 1,000 dwellings. Based on an average of 2.4 persons per dwelling, we estimate that North Lancaster could accommodate a population of approximately 2,400.

Table 5.14: Proposed Housing and Population Associated with North Lancaster Bailrigg Garden Village Dwellings/Population Dwellings 1,000 Population 2,400

5.62 Taking the population of 2,400 and an average per capita convenience spend per person of £2,3216 (adjusted to exclude Special Forms of Trading (SFT) in accordance with the Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 14), we estimate that within North Lancaster, once fully completed, there will be an available convenience expenditure of £5.6m overall.

5.63 We consider that 70% of this available expenditure will be spent on ‘main food’ shopping (i.e. the typical big weekly convenience shop), and 30% will be spent on the weekly ‘top-up’ shopping trips (i.e. the smaller basket shops, purchasing smaller day-to-day items such as bread, milk, butter etc). This equates to £3.9m available for main food shopping and £1.7m for top-up food shopping from residents in North Lancaster.

Table 5.15: Estimated Available Convenience Goods Expenditure in North Lancaster Estimated Estimated Per Capita Estimated Available Available ‘Main Convenience Available ‘Top Population at Convenience Food’ Expenditure at Up’ Convenience 2031 Goods Convenience 2031 without Expenditure at Expenditure at Expenditure at SFT (£)2 2031 (£m) 2031 (£m) 2031 (£m) 2,400 £2,321 £5.7m £3.9m £1.7m 1 Per capita convenience goods expenditure sourced from Experian MMG3 data report utilised in the Retail Study 2 Expenditure growth and allowance for special forms of trading sourced from Appendix 3 of ERPBN 14 In 2015 prices

5.64 Based on a total population of 2,400 and taking a per capita comparison expenditure of £3,500 at 2031, we calculate that the residential population within North Lancaster could generate a total comparison expenditure of approximately £8.4m.

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Table 5.16: Estimated Available Comparison Goods Expenditure in North Lancaster

Estimated Per Capita Available Comparison Comparison Population Expenditure at Goods 2031 without Expenditure at SFT (£)2 2031 (£m)

2,400 £3,500 £8.4m 1 Per capita convenience goods expenditure sourced from Experian MMG3 data report utilised in the Retail Study 2 Expenditure growth and allowance for special forms of trading sourced from Appendix 3 of ERPBN 14 In 2015 prices

Proportion of Retail Expenditure Claimed by Local Centre Facilities 5.65 Given the scale of the proposed strategic site at North Lancaster (relative to other settlements), it is inevitable that a significant proportion of the identified estimated expenditure within the settlement will be spent elsewhere. Accordingly, it is necessary to consider what proportion of the expenditure which would originate within North Lancaster would be retained within it.

Convenience Goods 5.66 We have considered existing shopping patterns and the general type of facilities which would be expected within North Lancaster which seeks to provide for some degree of self-sufficiency. We believe that a settlement of circa 2,400 persons would be able to support a convenience grocery store which would meet most ‘top up’ food shopping needs most of the time.

5.67 In terms of main food shopping expenditure, we do not expect that the strategic sites in North Lancaster would likely accommodate a very large food supermarket or a food superstore due to the limited level of available convenience expenditure. However, if the two sites in North Lancaster provided additional food retailers (such as a butcher, baker and similar), we believe that there is potential for it to retain a limited proportion of the main food shopping expenditure which originates within the settlement. Accordingly, we assume that around 30% of total main food expenditure originating within North Lancaster could be retained there. Instead, we believe that residents will typically source food goods that can’t be sourced very locally from larger foodstores and centres elsewhere in the Lancaster administrative boundary.

5.68 On this basis, we have calculated that the North Lancaster residents could spend approximately £1.2m of the main food convenience expenditure in a local centre and £1.5m of top-up convenience expenditure, totalling in £2.7m of convenience expenditure available to support new floorspace in a local centre in North Lancaster.

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Comparison Goods 5.69 In considering likely North Lancaster comparison goods shopping patterns, we have once more reviewed existing shopping patterns and the general type of facilities which we would expect to be located within a local centre in North Lancaster. We believe that a settlement of circa 2,400 persons would only likely to be able to support a limited comparison goods offer, which would focus around the type of goods for which shoppers may only visit one shop to source (in our view, this type of comparison goods retailer includes pharmacies, florists, card shops and similar).

5.70 Accordingly, in considering future shopping patterns, we have assumed that only 10% of all North Lancaster comparison goods expenditure will be retained within the local area and the remainder will be spent elsewhere. In fact, we consider that a very significant proportion of comparison goods expenditure would likely be claimed by Lancaster city centre due to its very strong offer and relatively proximate location. As such, based on our calculations in Table X above, we estimate that North Lancaster would retain £0.8m of comparison goods expenditure generated within the new settlement, with the remaining expenditure being drawn to facilities likely to be in Lancaster city centre.

Retail Floorspace Requirement 5.71 The estimated expenditure which could be claimed by North Lancaster retail facilities can be converted to a floorspace requirement in order to provide an indication of the need which should be planned for.

5.72 The floorspace requirement will vary dependent on the type of retailer proposed and the type of goods traded. For example, the ‘main four’ foodstore operators7 have traditionally achieved higher sales densities than most other food retailers. In the case of comparison goods, non- bulky goods retailers tend to achieve higher sales densities than bulky goods retailers. However, within the bulky goods sector itself there is significant variation, with electrical retailers tending to have a much higher sales density than those selling DIY or furniture goods. Accordingly, it is important to take account of the type of retailers which would likely take floorspace at North Lancaster (and elsewhere) when considering the floorspace requirement.

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Convenience Goods 5.73 In respect of convenience goods, the Retail Study converted the identified expenditure surplus into floorspace requirements based on occupation by either a ‘main four’ operator or by a discount operator. This is on the basis that substantial additional needs tend to be met by new large foodstores.

5.74 However, the position at North Lancaster is somewhat different as no provision currently exists near and that which will likely come forward is likely to be relatively modest in scale. To provide for a sustainable development, we consider that it is prudent to first plan for a general small convenience grocery store and to then consider the level of additional floorspace which could be supported. We envisage that such additional floorspace could be occupied by a range of speciality food operators (such as a butcher, baker and so on).

5.75 We have assumed that the convenience grocery store could be occupied by either one of the ‘main four’ or by a more specialist convenience store operator (such as Co-op, Costcutter, Londis or Spar). Accordingly, we apply a sales density of £6,993 per sq.m at which we believe would likely be secured by a more specialist convenience store operator. Based on this sales density, we consider that the available comparison expenditure within North Lancaster could support approximately 380 sq.m of convenience goods floorspace, which suitably fits in with floorspace requirements of typical small format convenience operators (such as Co-op, Tesco Express, Sainsbury’s Local and so on).

Comparison Goods 5.76 Turning to comparison goods, as set out above for Bailrigg Garden Village and East Lancaster, we have applied a sales density of £3,500 per sq.m due to the type of retailers likely to trade in small local centres. As such, we calculate that the estimated level of comparison expenditure could support approximately 200 sq.m of comparison goods floorspace. This would equate to approximately three or four small comparison retailers, or one large retailer.

Other Facilities 5.77 Based on the estimated population of 2,400 residents, we calculate that the local centre could support a GP Surgery and Post Office but is unlikely to be able to support any additional facility.

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Table 5.17: Facilities and the Number of Households they Serve (as Amended from Integration of Parish Plans into the Wider Systems of Local Government report) Number of Households Facility Required to Support Specified Facility GP’s Surgery 1,000 to 1,200 Post Office 2,000 to 4,000 Community centre 2,800 to 6,000 Health centre 3,600 to 4,800 Library 4,800 to 12,000 Source: Extracted from Integration of Parish Plans into the Wider System of Local Government report (DEFRA, July 2007)

5.78 As was the case with Bailrigg Garden Village and East Lancaster, it is highly likely that the retail floorspace could also be supplemented by retail services (such as hairdressers and beauticians) and leisure services (such as pubs and restaurants). Such uses are not generally considered by quantitative need assessments but, in our experience, can often account for between a quarter and a half of commercial floorspace in a local parade or Local Centre. Leisure services, in particular, also often fall within an A1 Use Class bur are not accounted for in considering convenience and comparison goods need. Accordingly, any requirement for such floorspace is in addition to the above identified convenience and comparison goods needs.

Summary 5.79 We have undertaken an analysis of the type of provision which could be realistically achieved in each of the local centres within the strategic allocations of Bailrigg Garden Village, East Lancaster and North Lancaster. The assessment has been undertaken having regard to the existing shopping patterns of residents in Lancaster, the existing operators and centres within the District and other existing centres (and their respective provision) across the District. Whilst the levels of population which may be created in these strategic locations (and particularly at Bailrigg Garden Village) are of a substantial level, this does not automatically equate to the need to provide larger centres. This is due to the tradition for shoppers to travel to larger convenience stores to undertake their main food shop and larger centres and out of centre destinations to undertake their comparison shop.

5.80 The review of existing local centres in the District has provided us with a good basis upon which to assess the need and general requirements for the new local centres. By analysing which centres perform well, and which perform less well, we can establish what scale and type of operators the new centres should aspire to accommodate. Even the formation and function

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of the existing centres in terms of public realm, available and free parking and store facias are important considerations when planning for future new designated centres to serve the growing population.

5.81 We have provided a summary of our findings below with regard to the three strategic residential allocations of Bailrigg Garden Village, East Lancaster and North Lancaster. We’ve set out the levels of convenience and comparison expenditure which we consider to be realistically available to support new facilities in each of the strategic allocations in Tables 5.18 and 5.19 below, demonstrating that Bailrigg Garden Village, due to its potential size, will retain a higher level of convenience and comparison expenditure than East and North Lancaster.

Table 5.18: Summary of Available Convenience Spend in the Three Allocations Convenience Main Expenditure Available Top-up Strategic Dwellings Population Food Per Capita Expenditure Split Allocation Split Bailrigg Garden 3,500 8,400 2,321 19.5 13.6 5.8 Village East Lancaster 1,000 2,400 2,321 5.6 3.9 1.7 North 1,000 2,400 2,321 5.6 3.9 1.7 Lancaster

Table 5.19: Summary of Available Comparison Spend in the Three Allocations Strategic Expenditure Per Available Dwellings Population Allocation Capita Expenditure Bailrigg Garden 3,500 8,400 3,500 29.4 Village East Lancaster 1,000 2,400 3,500 8.4 North Lancaster 1,000 2,400 3,500 8.4

5.82 Table 5.20 below then sets out a summary of the convenience, comparison and other uses which we consider could feasibly be accommodated in the proposed local centres in each case. It is important to recognise here that we consider the proposed local centres in East and North Lancaster to reflect the existing provision in centres such as Bare, Heysham Road and Bowerham and due to the size of the proposed residential development at Bailrigg Garden Village, we consider a centre more akin to Westgate to be of an appropriate size. However, we do consider it necessary to also consider the potential for Bailrigg Garden Village to accommodate two smaller centres rather than one big one. It is useful here to refer back to Table 3.8 above which provides the average catchment composition for the urban and rural local centres within the District. The average catchment within a five minute walk time for urban local centres is 1,765 and within a 10 minute walk time catchment is 5,220. If we

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compare these averages to the level of the expected population in each of the three strategic allocations, we can see that each of the proposed centres will be served by a broadly comparable catchment in each case.

Table 5.20: Summary of Available Comparison Spend in the Three Allocations at 2031

Convenience Comparison Comparable Existing Strategic Floorspace Floorspace Other Uses Local Centres in Allocation Requirement Requirement Lancaster GP Surgery, Post Bailrigg Garden 2,000 sq.m 1,500 sq.m Office, Community Westgate local centre Village Centre Bare, Heysham Road, East Lancaster 380 sq.m 200 sq.m GP Surgery Bowerham local centres Bare, Heysham Road, North Lancaster 380 sq.m 200 sq.m GP Surgery Bowerham local centres

5.83 We are aware that plans are currently being developed with the aim of delivering an alternative scheme on the Canal Corridor site. Given the current retail climate, it is anticipated that leisure uses including food and beverage uses will form a substantial element of the revised scheme. It is aimed that by providing an improved leisure offer within the city centre, additional visitors will be attracted to the centre as a result of the strong overall offer. Such leisure users, combined with the city’s retail offer, could assist in improving dwell times in the city, thus improving the overall vitality and viability.

5.84 The Canal Corridor scheme will deliver a qualitatively different offer to any of the proposed local centres within the three strategic residential allocations as set out above. The local centres at Bailrigg Garden Village, East Lancaster and North Lancaster will each perform a local function, primarily serving convenience and service needs to local residents, thus reducing the need to travel long distances in particular to undertake their top-up food shop, and in Bailrigg Garden Village, their main food shop. Whilst we note that the level of floorspace that could be accommodate at Bailrigg Garden Village is substantially higher than both East Lancaster and North Lancaster, the centre will still perform a different role to any scheme coming forward within Lancaster city centre. Centres of this nature successfully complement the larger key retail destinations, offering a different scale and type of retail and service provision. Whilst there will inevitably be a degree of shifting in shopping patterns, particularly in terms of convenience shopping if a new foodstore is created at Bailrigg Garden Village in particular, this will not be to a level which could untenably impact on any future regeneration aspirations by the Council.

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6.0 Walk Time Catchments

Introduction 6.01 WYG has undertaken a walk-time analysis from each of the defined centres in order to understand their distribution and the composition of their catchment areas. The analysis helps to understand locations where there are gaps in the provision of facilities and where best any deficiencies may be addressed, and particularly if the proposed local centres at the strategic allocations could meet these potential requirements.

6.02 WYG has also carried out a broad assessment to establish whether the existing network of local centres is sufficient to meets the needs of the local community across the district. The plans contained at Appendix 5 show walk time catchments areas of 5 minutes and 10 minutes from around the Lancaster city centre and Morecambe and Carnforth district centre boundaries and from the centre points for the proposed local centres. This equates to distances of approximately 400 and 800 metres respectively.

6.03 WYG consider an 800m walk time to be a reasonable distance for people to travel to access retail and service uses, based on the Institute of Highways and Transportation in Guidelines for Journeys on Foot (2010), which states that 800 metres is a preferred maximum walking distance. However, given the smaller scale of some of the local centres in the district, WYG have also undertaken analysis of the 400m walking catchment areas.

Analysis 6.04 The isochrones have been generated using Experian MMG3 software which derives the catchments based on the road network. This should be noted as a limitation as it does not account for non-adopted highway and subsequently pedestrian routes such as public footpaths and cut throughs are not accounted for. However, the overall impact of this on the catchments generated is considered to be negligible. It should be noted that Appendix 5 and Figure 6.1 below only shows the 13 existing local centres contained within emerging Policy TC1 which have been assessed as part of this study. For example, whilst it appears that Hest Bank village is unsupported by retail and service facilities within an identified centre, it accommodates two hair & beauty salons, two takeaways, an antiques store, estate agent and dentist.

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Figure 6.1: Walktime Catchments of Existing Centres

6.05 The catchment plan indicates that there are large parts of the district where there is an existing shortfall of services within a 10-minute walk time catchment of a local centre. However, over 90% of the district is rural and the majority of the population concentrated within the urban areas. Therefore, in order to assist with identifying the extent of the deficiency, we have assessed the combined population within the catchments against the overall district population.

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Table 6.1: Population of Local Centre Walk Time Catchments Population Estimate 2015 5 Minute Walk Time 10 Minute Walk Time Centre Isochrone Isochrone Bare 2,112 4,486 Torrisholme 1,878 5,320 Westgate 1,394 5,114 West End 2,985 6,257 Bowerham 3,673 5,545 Lancaster Uni 2,908 5,600 Heysham Road 1,722 6,099 Heysham Village 885 3,340 Caton 1,085 1,747 Hornby 345 624 Galgate 1,842 2,630 Bolton-le-Sands 885 2,560 Silverdale 682 1,265 TOTAL 22,396 50,505 AVERAGE 1,723 3,891 LANCASTER DISTRICT 142,022

6.06 Table 6.1 shows that 50,505 people live within the combined 10-minute walk time isochrones for the existing local centres. This is more than one third of the districts population. The analysis included the locations of the proposed new local centres associated with major residential developments at Scotforth, Ridge and Skerton. However, given that these developments are yet to come forward, catchment figures do not relate to existing local centres and have therefore been deducted from the total.

6.07 The district has a low population density of 244 per sq.km. It is therefore likely that the remaining 91,517 residents of the district that do not live within a 10-minute walk time catchment of an existing local centre live within the urban areas to the east of the district, predominately the residential suburbs associated with Lancaster city centre and Morecambe and Carnforth district centres. Lancaster and Morecambe in particularly cover significant residential catchments within 5 and 10-minute walk time isochrones.

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Table 6.2: Population of City & District Centre Walk Time Catchments Population Estimate 2015 5 Minute Walk Time 10 Minute Walk Time Centre Isochrone Isochrone Lancaster 9,077 18,169 Morecambe 3,680 9,443 Carnforth 1,409 4,021 TOTAL 14,166 31,633

6.08 Table 6.2 shows that 31,633 residents live within a 10-minute walk time catchment of the city and district centres and subsequently have access to an increased provision of services than those provided by local centres in their immediate locality.

6.09 The findings therefore show that there is a population of 59,884 within the Lancaster District that do not live within a 10-minute walking catchment of a defined centre within the emerging retail hierarchy. It is clear that a high proportion of residents are concentrated within the urban areas comprising Lancaster city centre, Morecambe, Carnforth and associated suburbs.

6.10 WYG have defined a boundary for the urban areas of the district which can be viewed at Appendix 9. The boundary encompasses the eleven urban local centres as well as Lancaster city centre, Morecambe, Carnforth and associated 5 and 10-minute walk time catchments. The 2015 population estimate within this boundary is 112,148, showing that approximately 79% of the districts population live within the urban concentration.

6.11 This figure shows that 29,874 residents of the district (approximately 21%) live outside of the urban area within rural parts of the district. The five rural local centres support a combined population of 8,826 within ten-minute walk time catchments meaning that 21,048 rural residents are not supported by a local centre within a 10-minute walking catchment. It is acknowledged that not all of the districts’ rural population have access to a defined local centre within a ten-minute walking catchment. This is however justified because the population in these areas is not substantial enough to viably support a retail or service hub.

6.12 In terms of both urban areas and rural settlements, there are several areas in the district which support a residential population where there is an existing shortfall of services within a 5 and 10-minute walk time catchment of a defined centre. These areas comprise:

▪ Hest Bank/Slyne (South of Bolton-le-Sands); ▪ Residential areas to the north (Skerton), south (Scotforth); and

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▪ Halton.

6.13 The plan provided in Figure 6.2 below and provided at Appendix 5, shows the existing and proposed local centres, alongside the strategic allocations. We can see from Figure 6.2 that there are clear gaps in provision of local centres (annotated by the blue, orange and yellow circles).

Figure 6.2: Existing and Proposed Centres and Gap in Provision

6.14 Whilst these are the most obvious locations not located within a 10-minute walk time catchment of a designated centre, there are also several ‘fringe’ areas where there are ‘urban

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gaps’ that are also not covered within a 10-minute walk time catchment from a designated centre.

6.15 We have reviewed all the locations not covered within a 10-minute walking catchment of a defined centre to establish whether these locations do indeed represent a gap in retail and service provision, or whether there are services present that are not currently designated as a ‘protected’ centre for retail purposes.

Hest Bank/Slyne 6.16 Hest Bank has a limited provision of retail, service and other uses located on Marine Drive/Coastal Road. This includes a dentist, café, two takeaways, a beauty salon, hairdressers and estate agent. There is no convenience goods store at Hest Bank. Given the level of services present, we do not consider it appropriate to designate the retail and service provision at Hest Bank as a local centre. Furthermore, given the lack of a convenience goods store, the facilities are not considered to be consistent with a lower tier centre (e.g. neighbourhood parade). However, when assessing the wider Hest Bank area, which is adjoined by Slyne (forming the wider suburb), there is a Londis convenience store and pharmacy located on Manor Road, approximately 1 km south-east of the retail and services. Therefore, when viewing the area holistically, residents are catered for by basic retail and service provisions, suitable to meet some of their day to day needs. This limited provision is further supported by the relatively close proximity of Bolton-le-Sands local centre to the north. However, it may be that future proactive planning for additional retail uses at Hest Bank should be promoted and supported by the Council but at present, we do not consider it appropriate to designate Hest Bank/Slyne as a local centre.

Skerton 6.17 The Skerton area, whilst not currently accommodating a local centre, benefits from a number of stand-alone convenience stores supporting the surrounding residential population. This includes a Co-Operative food store on Barley Cop Lane, Londis on Noel Road and two Spars on Slyne Road (one of which is located at a PFS). Basic convenience services can therefore be met within the immediate locality for residents of Skerton and, given the size of its current population, and proximity of the suburb to Lancaster city centre, there is currently no need for further retail and service provision in the area. Section 5 assessed the scale of the new local centre that is required to come forward in close proximity to Skerton alongside the major urban extension to the north of the suburb (North Lancaster as allocated under Strategic Policy SG11). Once delivered, this will further support the retail and service needs of existing residents in the Skerton area.

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Scotforth 6.18 Scotforth lies to the south of the city centre, and the existing population is served by the Booths supermarket on Scotforth Road. There are also two Spars (within petrol filling stations) and a public house, also located on Scotforth Road. Basic convenience services can therefore be met within the immediate locality for residents of Scotforth and, given the size of its current population, and proximity of the suburb to Lancaster city centre and Bowerham local service centre, there is currently no need for further retail and service provision in the area. Section 5 assessed the scale of the new local centre that is required to come forwards in Skerton alongside the major Bailrigg Garden Village urban extension to the west of the suburb. Once delivered, we consider that this will further support the retail and service needs of existing residents in the Scotforth area.

Halton 6.19 Halton is a small village located to the north-east of the city centre, bounded to the south by the River Lune. There is a small parade of retail and service units serving the surrounding population, including a convenience store. This parade provides day to day service needs for residents that we consider to be generally consistent with level of services present at the other proposed rural local centres (excluding Galgate which does not function as a local centre). As such, we recommend that Halton is added to Policy TC1 as a rural local centre. In light of this an addition survey was undertaken to identify the current diversity of retail and service uses in Halton which is outlined in table 6.3 below.

Table 6.3: Halton Diversity of Use Halton - June 2017 No of Units % Floorspace % Convenience 2 33.3% 164 42.5% Comparison 1 16.7% 64 16.6% Retail Service 1 16.7% 34 8.8% Leisure Service 1 16.7% 82 21.2% Financial and Business Service 1 16.7% 42 10.9% Vacant 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Total 6 100% 386 Source: Lancaster CC Site Visit - June 2017

Further Areas 6.20 Further areas such as residential suburbs surrounding, most notably Westbourne Road (to the west of the city centre) and Quernmore Road (to the east) do not fall within 10-minute walking catchments of designated centres. However, whilst not located within 10-minute walk

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time catchments, these locations are well connected with the city centre and surrounding local centres and there is no requirement to establish retail and service facilities.

Conclusion 6.21 Having reviewed the walk time catchments associated with the retail hierarchy proposed under Policy TC1 of the emerging Strategic Policies & Land Allocations DPD, we have found that the majority of residents living within urban parts of the district live within a 10-minute walk time catchment of a designated centre. Furthermore, we have found that residents living outside of the catchments, on the most part have access to a convenience goods service in their immediate locality. In terms of the rural parts of the district, given the low proportion of the population in which these areas accommodate, we consider the designation of the five rural local centres (dropping the proposed designation of Galgate and replacing with Halton) to be appropriate. Residents living in rural locations are more likely to have access to a private vehicle and are able to travel further than their immediate locality to access amenities.

6.22 We are aware of key largescale retail schemes of Frontierland, Lawson’s Bridge and Canal Corridor and the importance of ensuring that any new local centre schemes do not impact on the delivery of the developments. Our assessment undertaken above assumes that the new local centres will appropriately serve the new population generated by the proposed strategic residential sites but will not be of a size which could impact on any committed scheme within Lancaster city centre in particular.

6.23 The proposed centres will simply not be of a size or scale sufficient enough to generate a turnover which could divert trade from the committed schemes. Our assessment of the proposed local centres as set out in Section 5 above, seeks to appropriately and sympathetically allocate expenditure to ensure that the centres provide for everyday local residents’ needs, whilst ensuring that the existing network of defined centres and existing retail provision across the District continues to function and is not adversely impacted upon. Furthermore, the locations of the proposed strategic sites are all accessible from Lancaster city centre, which will serve an important convenience and comparison retail function for residents. The purpose of the local centres in the strategic allocations is not to replicate the offer in the defined larger centres (Lancaster, Morecambe and Carnforth), but to provide complimentary facilities to meet residents’ every day shopping and service needs.

6.24 In terms of the convenience provision in south Lancaster, the proposed foodstore (Booths) at Lawson’s Bridge (which we understand has been implemented but there are no concrete plans

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to build out), would seeks to serve an important role in providing a main food destination for residents at Bailrigg Garden Village in particular. Whether this should also form part of a defined centre within the south depends again on the phasing of any future housing growth and whether a scheme could be drawn up which best reflects the site’s location and confines in terms of the adjacent railway line. It may be that a defined centre adjacent to the permitted foodstore would not best serve the needs of the new residents at Bailrigg Garden Village and that accessibility needs to be fully considered when further more formal plans are brought forward in respect of specific locations of dwellings. Whilst the Bailrigg Garden Village site is also situated in close proximity to Galgate and Lancaster University local centres, as our healthcheck assessments (summarised at Section 3 above) conclude, Galgate does not currently offer any provision other than a Spar convenience store for local residents, and as such, the offer is limited and does not function as a local centre. Further, Lancaster University serves the temporary population within the campus and serves a very different purpose which does not offer an overall accessible provision for wider residents, unless you are travelling by car (and even then, car parking is limited).

6.25 In light of the above, we conclude that new local centres are required to better serve the new population proposed to the south.

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7.0 Summary and Recommendations

7.01 WYG was appointed by Lancaster District Council to undertake a review of the defined local centres within Lancaster and provide strategic planning advice regarding the proposed new local centres within the strategic policy allocations of Bailrigg Garden Village, East Lancaster and North Lancaster.

7.02 Once adopted, Policy TC1 of the emerging Strategic Policies & Land Allocations Development Plan Document (DPD) will redefine the existing retail hierarchy for the Lancaster District. Policy TC1 proposes 16 local centres, split across urban and rural parts of the district and defined by their proximity to both Lancaster and Morecambe. Many of the local centres defined under Policy ER 4 of the core strategy remain under Policy TC1.

7.03 Many local centres provide access to shops but are also the ‘heart’ of the local community in some instances, with community halls and libraries. Due to the substantially different demographics of the populations surrounding the currently defined local centres, each centre is qualitatively different and have been structured and designed to meet specific needs. There are notably different offers in each centre, matching the specific requirements of local residents in each of the catchments.

7.04 Shopping and leisure provision within Lancaster is largely concentrated within the centres of Lancaster and Morecambe and to a lesser extent, Carnforth. These retail centres are characterised by a range of local and national retailers that predominately serve the local area.

7.05 Outside of these centres, additional retail facilities are offered within the smaller local centres. Lancaster has a network of local centres, which act as a focus for local life and successful communities. They provide shops, services and facilities to meet local day to day needs as well as providing opportunities for growth, investment and local employment close to where people live and in some cases, work.

Existing Local Centres 7.06 The assessment by WYG to analyse the health of each of the 13 existing local centres (as proposed by Policy TC1) in Lancaster District has indicated that many of these are performing well, are vital and viable centres and perform a key role in serving the local population, whilst also continuing to complement the established centres of Lancaster city centre, Morecambe and Carnforth. This is particularly relevant for the centres defined as ‘urban’ within the Strategic Policies & Land Allocations Development Plan Document (DPD), the ‘rural’ local centres serving more localised catchments.

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7.07 It is apparent that West End continues to struggle with high levels of vacancy and the poor environmental quality detracting from the overall health of the centre. We understand that the issues at West End are well established and that successes to date, and future aspirations for the improvement in the area are set out in the West End Masterplan, which includes a section on the ‘commercial core’. The Council continues to work with local traders to address the areas extensive issues, however, it is clear that there is a more structural economic issue at play, which is due to socio-economic circumstances of the surrounding community which reflects the centres’ performance. We also consider it important for any future aspirations for West End to also fully have regard to the proposed retail and leisure development on the former Frontierland site. This is likely to meet some retail needs of residents in West End due to the close proximity from the residential areas to the site. As such, any future plans for commercial uses in West End will need to be a of a scale and provision to be able to compete with the offer proposed at Frontierland.

7.08 Having reviewed the walk time catchments associated with the retail hierarchy proposed under Policy TC1 of the emerging Strategic Policies & Land Allocations DPD, we have found that the majority of residents living within urban parts of the district live within a 10-minute walk time catchment of a designated centre. Furthermore, we have found that residents living outside of the catchments, on the most part have access to a convenience goods service in their immediate locality. In terms of the rural parts of the district, given the low proportion of the population in which these areas accommodate, we consider the designation of the five rural local centres to be appropriate. Residents living in rural locations are more likely to have access to a private vehicle and are able to travel further than their immediate locality to access amenities.

7.09 Given its limited provision of retail and services, it is recommended that the proposed designation of Galgate as a rural local centre is removed. We have however found the retail and services present in Halton Village to be consistent with those present across the other four proposed rural local centres. As such, we recommend that Galgate is replaced with Halton under Policy TC1, retaining the proposed designation of five rural local centres.

7.10 Having reviewed the accessibility of nearby centres, and those areas which are not located within a ten minute walktime catchment of an existing local centre, we are of the view that there may be scope to look at promoting additional commercial uses at Hest Bank in order to strive to create new designated centres in this currently deficient area. Whilst there is some

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limited provision in this area meeting residents’ needs, the existing uses are not sufficient to constitute a defined local centre.

Proposed Local Centres (Strategic Allocations) 7.11 We have undertaken an analysis of the type of provision which could be realistically achieved in each of the local centres within the strategic allocations of Bailrigg Garden Village, East Lancaster and North Lancaster. The assessment has been undertaken having regard to the existing shopping patterns of residents in Lancaster, the existing operators and centres within the District and other existing centres (and their respective provision) across the District. Whilst the levels of population which may be created in these strategic locations (and particularly at Bailrigg Garden Village) are of a substantial level, this does not automatically equate to the need to provide larger centres. This is due to the tradition for shoppers to travel to larger convenience stores to undertake their main food shop and larger centres and out of centre destinations to undertake their comparison shop.

7.12 The review of existing local centres in the District has provided us with a good basis upon which to assess the need and general requirements for the new local centres. By analysing which centres perform well, and which perform less well, we can establish what scale and type of operators the new centres should aspire to accommodate. Even the formation and function of the existing centres in terms of public realm, available and free parking and store facias are important considerations when planning for future new designated centres to serve the growing population.

7.13 Table 7.1 below then sets out a summary of the convenience, comparison and other uses which we consider could feasibly be accommodated in the proposed local centres in each case. It is important to recognise here that we consider the proposed local centres in East and North Lancaster to reflect the existing provision in centres such as Bare, Heysham Road and Bowerham and due to the size of the proposed residential development at Bailrigg Garden Village, we consider a centre more akin to Westgate to be of an appropriate size. However, we do consider it necessary to also consider the potential for Bailrigg Garden Village to accommodate two smaller centres rather than one big one.

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Table 7.1: Summary of Available Comparison Spend in the Three Allocations Comparable Convenience Comparison Strategic Existing Local Floorspace Floorspace Other Uses Allocation Centres in Requirement Requirement Lancaster GP Surgery, Post Bailrigg Garden Westgate local 2,000 sq.m 1,500 sq.m Office, Community Village centre Centre Bare, Heysham East Lancaster 380 sq.m 200 sq.m GP Surgery Road, Bowerham local centres Bare, Heysham North Lancaster 380 sq.m 200 sq.m GP Surgery Road, Bowerham local centres

Recommended Local Impact Threshold 7.14 In accordance with the requirements of paragraph 26 of the NPPF, it is appropriate to identify thresholds for the scale of edge of centre and out of centre retail, leisure and office development which should be the subject of an impact assessment. Any such threshold policy applies only to the impact test (all planning applications for main town centre uses that are not in an existing centre and not in accordance with an up-to-date development plan should be subjected to the sequential test8). The assessment provided below is based on our extensive analysis of the existing local centres within the District, including the scale, nature and mix of uses in each.

7.15 Paragraph 26 of the NPPF states that:

‘When assessing applications for retail, leisure and office development outside of town centre, which are not in accordance with an up-to-date Local Plan, local planning authorities should require an impact assessment if development is over a proportionate, locally set floorspace threshold (if there is no locally set threshold, the default threshold is 2,500 sq.m).’

7.16 The Ensuring the Vitality of Town Centres Planning Practice Guidance provides further clarification in respect of the impact test and the setting of local thresholds. Paragraph 13 of the Practice Guidance states that:

‘The purpose of the test is to ensure that the impact over time (up to five years (ten for major schemes)) of certain out of centre and edge of centre proposals on existing town centres is not significantly adverse. The test relates to retail, office and leisure development

8 With the exception (in accordance with paragraph 25 of the NPPF) of small scale rural office proposals and other small scale rural development www.wyg.com creative minds safe hands 76

(not all main town centre uses) which are not in accordance with an up to date Local Plan and outside of existing town centres. It is important that the impact is assessed in relation to all town centres that may be affected, which are not necessarily just those closest to the proposal and may be in neighbouring authority areas.’

7.17 Paragraph 16 provides specific guidance in relation to floorspace thresholds and states:

‘The impact test only applies to proposals exceeding 2,500 square metres gross of floorspace unless a different locally appropriate threshold is set by the local planning authority. In setting a locally appropriate threshold it will be important to consider the:

• Scale of proposals relative to town centres • The existing viability and vitality of town centres • Cumulative effects of recent developments • Whether local town centres are vulnerable • Likely effects of development on any town centre strategy • Impact on any other planned investment.’

7.18 We do not consider that the imposition of a blanket threshold will usually be appropriate across all types of centre within an administrative area. For example, a convenience store with a net sales area of 250 sq.m (which could be operated by, for example, Tesco Express or Sainsbury’s Local) would have a significantly greater impact on a small centre than it would on a large town centre. Therefore, in implementing a local threshold policy, it is considered more appropriate to apply a range of thresholds in accordance with the type of centre the proposed development is proximate to. The thresholds should not only apply to new floorspace, but also to changes of use and variations of condition to remove or amend restrictions on how units operate in practice.

7.19 Furthermore, we also note that the threshold applies to individual application proposals and that it could be possible for an applicant to ‘circumnavigate’ the requirements of the test through the submission of multiple, small-scale applications which together would provide for a larger development.

7.20 This recommendation is reflective of the potential for existing nearby out of centre retail destinations to become even stronger in the future at the expense of the centre.

7.21 For the local centres within Lancaster, it is recommended that a lower policy threshold of 200 sq.m applies. This lower threshold is set at a level which ensures that the impacts arising

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from proposed convenience stores operated by ‘main four’ food retailers (which can have a have a substantial seven-figure turnover) can be appropriately considered, particularly when considering some of the performances of the existing local centres within the District.

7.22 We are aware of recent appeals where Inspectors have found that such convenience stores can have a significant adverse impact on smaller centres9. We believe that this type of development has the potential to divert expenditure and potential operators from the District’s smaller centres and that the setting of lower thresholds is therefore justified.

7.23 We believe that the proposed lower thresholds for local centres is appropriate as a consequence of their localised role and function, and the fact the opening of a small format convenience store outside of these smaller centres is likely to directly compete with type of local needs provision typically found within such centres. We therefore believe it is reasonable for applicants proposing developments of 200 sq.m gross floorspace for local centres and above, to demonstrate that their proposal will not have a significant adverse impact on smaller centres sharing part of the same catchment.

7.24 The proposed threshold at local centre level are considered to reflect the relatively small size of some of the centres at the lower end of the retail hierarchy and their consequent potential susceptibility to alternative ‘out-of-centre’ provision. In practice, it is envisaged that a proposal of just greater than 200 sq.m adjacent to a local centre would generally require an impact assessment of proportionate length (i.e. for development of such a scale, impact may on occasion be able to be dealt with as part of the covering letter accompanying the application). Where an application proposal is above the respective stated impact threshold, we would recommend that the applicant discusses and agrees the scope of the retail impact assessment with the Council prior to submission. The lower threshold of 200 sq.m for local centres is considered appropriate due to potential for convenience stores of even a relatively small nature could substantially impact upon the performance of existing operators, due to the potential higher sales densities of such proposals. This would ensure that particular protection of these smaller centres is considered appropriately.

7.25 We believe that it is appropriate to qualify the area to which each local impact threshold will apply. We recommend that the thresholds of relevance to Earlestown town centre and to the District’s district and local centres would be applicable within 800 metres of the boundary of

9 Such cases include the appeal against the refusal of planning permission for a Tesco Express at Luton (PINS reference APP/B0230/A/13/2203864) and the appeal against the refusal of planning permission for a Sainsbury’s Local (PINS reference APP/e59000/A/14/2217680) at Tower Hamlets www.wyg.com creative minds safe hands 78

the relevant centre. The distance of 800 metres is considered to be broadly commensurate with the potential walk-in catchments of smaller centres and is identified by Guidelines for Providing for Journeys on Foot (The Institution of Highways & Transportation, 2000) as being the ‘preferred maximum’ acceptable walking distance to a centre. We consider it to be appropriate for the higher threshold of 500 sq.m to apply District-wide (beyond 800 metres of these centres), due to the lesser likelihood of significant adverse impacts arising from retail, leisure and office development.

7.26 In our experience, it will only generally be development of a scale greater than these thresholds which could lead to a ‘significant adverse’ impact, which could merit the refusal of an application for town centre uses in accordance with the provisions of paragraph 27 of the NPPF.

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Glossary of Terms

Capacity Retail capacity in terms of this report refers to surplus/deficit of expenditure (£m) which represents the difference between the expenditure and turnover of the identified facilities.

Comparison Goods Comparison goods relate to items not obtained on a frequent basis, these include clothing, footwear, household and recreational goods. A more detailed breakdown of comparison goods categories is provided below.

Chemist Goods All consumer retail expenditure on prescription and non-prescription drugs, adhesive and non-adhesive bandages, first-aid kits, hot-water bottles, toilet shops, sponges, and so on.

Clothing & Footwear All consumer retail expenditure on shoes and other footwear, garments for men, women, children and infants either ready-to-wear or made-to-measure, underwear, ties, handkerchiefs, scarves, and so on.

DIY Goods Includes all consumer expenditure on hardware, DIY, decorators’ supplies and garden centre type goods. This category includes products such as hammers, saw, screwdrivers, wallpaper, plumbing items, floorboards, ceramic tiles, plants, pots, turf for lawns, and so on.

Electrical Goods All consumer retail expenditure on domestic electrical and gas appliances, such as washing machines, dryers, dishwashers, ironing and press machines, cookers, freezers and fridge-freezers, coffee makers, radios, televisions, DVD players, and so on.

Furniture Goods Includes all consumer expenditure on furniture, floor coverings and household textiles such as beds, sofas, tables , cupboards, bed linen, curtains, towels, lamps, mirrors, and so on.

Household Goods Includes household textiles and soft furnishings, china, glassware, jewellery and other miscellaneous goods such as greeting cards, notebooks, pens, pencils, and so on.

Recreational Goods All consumer retail expenditure on bicycles and tricycles (excluding toy bicycles), musical instruments, sports equipment, camping equipment, toys of all kinds including dolls, soft toys, and so on.

Convenience Goods Convenience goods relate to everyday essential items including confectionary, food, drinks, newspapers and magazines.

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District centre District centres will usually comprise groups of shops often containing at least one supermarket or superstore, and a range of non-retail services, such as banks, building societies and restaurants, as well as local public facilities such as a library.

Expenditure Per Capita The average spend of each person within the defined Study Area on a variety of retail goods.

Expenditure Expenditure is calculated by taking the population within a defined area and then multiplying this figure by average annual expenditure levels for various forms of goods.

Expenditure Forecasts This assessment has been undertaken using the ‘goods based’ approach as prescribed in the Planning for Town Centres Practice Guidance. Retail expenditure forecasts have been derived from Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 12.1 (October 2014).

Experian (MMG3) The database used to identify population, expenditure and socio- economic breakdown of the Study Area population.

Gross Floorspace Represents the level of total floorspace or footprint of a specific development (i.e. sales area, storage, checkouts, café, display, and so on).

GOAD Plans Provide accurate information on the composition of town centres, shopping areas, out-of-town retail parks and outlet villages in the UK. Identifies the fascia name, retail category, floorspace, and exact location of all retail outlets and vacant premises.

GOAD Reports Provide a snap-shot of the retail status or demographic make-up of Goad surveyed town centres. Provides a comprehensive breakdown of floorspace and outlet count for all individual trade types in the Convenience, Comparison, Retail Service, Leisure, Financial/Business Services and Vacancy sectors.

Local Centre Local centres include a range of small shops of a local nature, serving a small catchment. Typically, local centres might include, amongst other shops, a small supermarket, a newsagent, a sub-post office and a pharmacy. Other facilities could include a hot-food takeaway and launderette. In rural areas, large villages may perform the role of a local centre.

Net Floorspace Represents the level of internal area devoted to the sale of goods.

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Market Share Market shares derived from the household survey results, which are based on either the proportion of shopping trips or the proportion of expenditure attracted to a particular centre/facility.

National Multiple This is defined as a retail or service operator which is or part of a network of nine or more outlets.

Price Base The price base for the Study is 2015; all prices are or have been adjusted to 2013 in order to be consistent.

Rates of Productivity This takes into account the potential for existing retail floorspace to improve their turnover productivity (e.g. smaller goods could be sold from a smaller area for more money, increased opening hours, etc.).

Sales Density Retail capacity figures are expressed in term of floorspace, relying on the application of assumed sales density figures to the surplus expenditure identified. This is based on the typical turnover of a store by square metre/foot.

Special Forms of Trading Defined by Experian as expenditure not directed to traditional floorspace such as the internet, mail order, party plan and vending machines and other non-store activity such as market and road-side stalls.

Study Area This represents the household survey area, which is based on postal sectors.

Trade Draw This refers to the level of trade attracted to a particular facility/centre from a particular area.

Turnover The turnover figure relates to the annual turnover generated by existing retail facilities.

Town Centre A town centre will usually be the second level of centres after city centres and, in many cases, they will be the principal centre of centres in a local authority’s area. In rural areas they are likely to be market towns and other centres of similar size and role which function as important service centres, providing a range of facilities and services for extensive rural catchment areas. In planning the future of town centres, local planning authorities should consider the function of different parts of the centre and how these contribute to its overall vitality and viability.

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