The behavioral challenge to economics: Understanding normal people Colin F. Camerer Div HSS 228-77 Caltech, Pasadena CA 91125
[email protected] June 4, 2003. This paper was prepared for the Federal Reserve of Boston meeting on “How Humans Behave”, June 8-10, 2003. Comments welcome, especially before June 8 (meeting date). Note that references are to be added. 1 Economic behavior begins and ends in the brain. Like economics, astronomy is about complex systems composed of simpler components— double stars, solar systems, planets and their satellites. While astronomical theories abstract from detailed descriptions of stars and planets, these theories are also sharply constrained by lower- level concepts from chemistry and physics, like Newtonian mechanics and gravity. In a similar way, economics should be constrained by facts about how people think, feel and behave. Behavioral economics takes this constraint seriously-- very seriously—and grounds economic models in psychological regularity. This essay is about what behavioral economics has established, what the new research frontiers are, and what can be said about welfare and consequently about policy. The idea that people are boundedly rational has been around for a long time (e.g., Herb Simon) and is not in genuine dispute. Since Simon defined bounds on rationality as the antithesis of hyperrationality, and hyperrationality was never taken seriously as a cognitive model, the concept of bounded rationality should not be controversial. The debate is therefore not about whether people are hyper-rational or not. The debate is about precisely how ideas from psychology can inform economic models of savings, unemployment, consumer demand, market-clearing, organizational design, financial market fluctuations, economic growth, and so on.