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Nepal's Political Rites of Passage

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Nepal's Political Rites of Passage NEPAL’S POLITICAL RITES OF PASSAGE Asia Report N°194 – 29 September 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 A. TURBULENT TRANSITIONS ........................................................................................................... 2 B. POLARISED PERSPECTIVES ........................................................................................................... 2 C. QUESTIONS AND CULTURES ......................................................................................................... 3 II. THE WAR THAT WAS ................................................................................................... 4 A. PEACE, PROCESS .......................................................................................................................... 4 1. The compulsion to collaborate ..................................................................................................... 4 2. Unfinished business ..................................................................................................................... 5 B. STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATIONS ............................................................................................... 6 1. Entering the game ........................................................................................................................ 7 2. The wary embrace ........................................................................................................................ 7 3. Form and substance ...................................................................................................................... 9 4. Transforming or transformed? ................................................................................................... 11 C. RISKS OF A RETURN TO WAR ..................................................................................................... 11 III. THE CONFLICTS TO COME ...................................................................................... 13 A. THE LIE OF THE LAND ................................................................................................................ 13 1. Emerging prominent actors ........................................................................................................ 13 2. Learning from the Maoists? ....................................................................................................... 15 3. Recruitment, risks and results .................................................................................................... 16 B. ORDER IN CHAOS ....................................................................................................................... 19 1. Parties, patronage and the uses of violence ................................................................................ 19 2. Mafia market .............................................................................................................................. 21 3. Fighting for political space ........................................................................................................ 23 4. Rites of protest ........................................................................................................................... 24 5. Bounded disorder ....................................................................................................................... 25 C. ANARCHY OR ACCULTURATION? ............................................................................................... 26 IV. THE ENDURING STATE .............................................................................................. 29 A. PUBLIC SECURITY, POLICING, POLITICKING ............................................................................... 29 1. A tiger with no claws ................................................................................................................. 30 2. Stepping back ............................................................................................................................. 33 3. The politics of policing .............................................................................................................. 34 4. Crime-fighting, in-fighting ........................................................................................................ 34 5. The cancer and the cure ............................................................................................................. 36 B. A NECESSARY EVIL ................................................................................................................... 37 1. Not set in stone........................................................................................................................... 37 2. Sovereign or subaltern? .............................................................................................................. 38 3. The state’s servants .................................................................................................................... 39 4. Political parties: can’t live with them, can’t live without them ................................................. 40 5. Of the people, by the people, for the people? ............................................................................ 41 C. RESILIENCE AND RESISTANCE .................................................................................................... 42 1. Pressures and prospects for transformation ............................................................................... 42 2. The demand for dysfunction ...................................................................................................... 43 3. More flexible than fragile .......................................................................................................... 44 Nepal’s Political Rites of Passage Crisis Group Asia Report N°194, 29 September 2010 Page ii V. CONCLUSION: REVOLUTION, RITES .................................................................... 45 APPENDICES A. MAP OF NEPAL ................................................................................................................................ 47 B. GLOSSARY ....................................................................................................................................... 48 C. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .................................................................................... 50 D. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA SINCE 2007 ........................................................ 51 E. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ................................................................................................ 53 Asia Report N°194 29 September 2010 NEPAL’S POLITICAL RITES OF PASSAGE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Nepal’s transition from war to peace appears chaotic. The picture, however, is not so simple. None of the new Many commentators warn of coming anarchy; the estab- groups challenges the state in the way the Maoists did. lishment fears a collapse of the social order and the frag- They offer no existential threat to the political system but mentation of the nation. But such fears are misguided. largely work within it; their cadres have often joined under Nepal is not in chaos; its transitions may be messy and low risk conditions for immediate benefits and lack the confusing but they are not anarchic. There is an order dedication of hard-core Maoists. Opportunism is the name within the political change, albeit one that can be mysterious of the game, and groups are making the most of the weak and unappealing to outsiders; the resilience of Nepal’s po- law and order situation during the transition. litical processes acts against fundamental transformations. The ways violence is used are ordered and bounded by This report attempts to understand the country’s political political and economic structures. The involvement of main- processes and cultures and reassess the state of the peace stream parties, police and administration officials in prof- process by examining three major questions. iting from violence and offering protection is becoming institutionalised. Political culture as a whole has not been Has Nepal put its civil war with the Maoists behind it? transformed but has become more tolerant of overt use of The shift from war to peace was rapid and remains in- force; the patterns that are being consolidated will be hard complete. But the peace process is much stronger than it to uproot. often seems. There have been significant structural trans- formations of the Maoist movement since the 2006 cease- The only real risk of serious unrest stems from the gather- fire. For example, the shift to “quantity rather than quality” ing backlash against federalism and programs for political for electoral politics broadened the movement but diluted inclusion, such as quotas and reservations. Powerful elites its revolutionary core. Still, the Maoists remain highly are not keen on dismantling the unitary state and are even organised and disciplined – and the most effective political less happy to relinquish their privileged access to jobs, force in Nepal. money and political power. The transition to federalism will present the most serious challenge, and conflict risk, The political atmosphere is more polarised than ever.
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