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The Determinants of Neighborhood Change Across Space and Time Diverging Paths: The Determinants of Neighborhood Change Across Space and Time DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Hee-Jung Jun Graduate Program in City and Regional Planning The Ohio State University 2010 Dissertation Committee: Professor Hazel A. Morrow-Jones, Advisor Professor Donald R. Haurin Professor Jennifer S. Evans-Cowley Copyright by Hee-Jung Jun 2010 Abstract The principal research question is “Why do some neighborhoods in U.S. urban areas stay economically healthy and others do not?” This study proposes three hypotheses on diverging paths of neighborhood change: first, neighborhood change is produced by interactions of factors at the metropolitan, municipal, and neighborhood scales; second, “the politics of scale”—city size and the homogeneity level of household interests in a municipality—is an important factor leading to different paths and outcomes of neighborhood change; and third, factors of neighborhood change have altered over time. The primary data set used in this study is the Neighborhood Change Data Base by GeoLytics that includes the decennial census data across the country from 1970 to 2000 at the census tract level. This study examines the proposed hypotheses with a random sample of 35 metropolitan areas and analyzes the data set using multilevel modeling. Using per capita income and average housing value in neighborhoods, this study develops an index of neighborhood economic condition and uses the change of this index as the dependent variable in the empirical analyses. The explanatory variables included in the model are based on the theories on neighborhood change and the comprehensive model of neighborhood change proposed in this study. This study finds clear evidence to support the proposed hypotheses. First, neighborhood change is produced by interactions of factors at the metropolitan, municipal, and neighborhood scales. Secondly, the politics of scale matters in ii neighborhood change in that neighborhoods are more likely improve economically in smaller and more homogeneous cities. Finally, factors affecting neighborhood change have altered over time. Based on the findings, this study suggests that it is essential to take metropolitan, municipal, and neighborhood contexts into account together in setting public policies for community development. With regard to the politics of scale, larger and more heterogeneous cities should learn from smaller and more homogeneous cities by, for example, working to increase community interaction, which is positively related to city growth. Finally, because the factors associated with neighborhood change were different in different time periods, local governments should plan in preparation for housing market change. By taking the municipal and metropolitan contexts as well as the neighborhood context into account, this study helps improve our understanding of diverging paths and determinants of neighborhood change. If we know why neighborhoods undergoing changes move in different directions and how the influences of neighborhood change have altered over time, we can do a better job of designing policies to ameliorate different conditions. In a more theoretical vein, this study contributes to the literature by providing a comprehensive model of neighborhood change over space and time. iii Dedication To my parents and Byungwon iv Acknowledgments I am deeply indebted to my advisor, Professor Hazel Morrow-Jones, who has guided me in each step to complete this dissertation. She helped me to refine my topic, read my theory and empirical analysis carefully, gave me invaluable advice, and was willing to edit my dissertation. I also would like to thank her for providing constant emotional encouragement. She is the role model for me. I thank Professor Donald Haurin, who generously served as a committee member in my candidacy exam and dissertation committees. His insightful comments and suggestions from an economist’s perspective made this dissertation much stronger. My appreciation also goes to Professor Maria Manta Conroy, who provided me with a research collaboration opportunity. The research opportunity allowed me to be more familiar with sustainable development and small town planning. I would like to extend thanks to Professors Jennifer Evans-Cowley, who was willing to serve on my dissertation committee. Many thanks also go to my colleagues in the Department of City and Regional Planning, who shared rounds of academic, policy related, and professional discussions with me. I especially thank Moon Jeong Kim and Yanmei Li, who gave me invaluable advice on a variety of topics during my years in the doctoral program. v The research for this dissertation was financially supported by a grant from the Center for Urban and Regional Analysis at the Ohio State University. The research funding allowed me to focus on writing this dissertation for six quarters. I thank Jamie Greene, the principal of ACP-Visioning and Planning, for generously offering me an internship position from 2005 to 2007. The internship not only provided financial support to me but also gave me a good understanding of practical planning. I owe many thanks to Mr. Dae Kee Yun and his family, who generously donated for the Dual Degree Program between Chung-Ang University and Cleveland State University. I could not have begun to study abroad without participating in the program. I thank Dr. Richard Bingham, who was my advisor when I was an exchange student at Cleveland State University. His warm-hearted support helped me proceed to the doctoral program. Professor Seong-Kyu Ha was a great advisor when I was an undergraduate and a graduate student at Chung-Ang University. My advisors in my undergraduate and master’s programs had made me become interested in housing in planning and without their guidance, the inception of this dissertation would not have been possible. In a more personal note, I cannot be thankful enough to my parents for all their endurance and love they have offer me over all these years and to all of my friends. I also thank my parents-in-law for their continuous prayers and love. Special thank is reserved for my husband, Byungwon Woo, who was incredibly supportive in keeping me on doctoral track. His criticisms helped me build a firmer vi foundation of this dissertation. At the same time, his constant encouragement and love allowed me to finish this long journey. vii Vita 2000................................................................B. A. in Economics, Chung-Ang University 2002................................................................Master of Urban and Regional Planning, Chung-Ang University 2003................................................................Master of Science in Urban Studies, Cleveland State University 2007................................................................Master of City and Regional Planning, The Ohio State University 2004-2007 ......................................................Intern, ACP-Visioning & Planning 2007-present ...................................................Graduate Associate, The Ohio State University Publications Ha, Seong-Kyu and Jun, Hee-Jung. 2002. The characteristics of mixed-use buildings in the Seoul Metropolitan Region, Housing Studies Review 11(1): 27-48. Fields of Study Major Field: City and Regional Planning viii Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................... ii Dedication .......................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgments............................................................................................................... v Vita ................................................................................................................................... viii Publications ...................................................................................................................... viii Fields of Study ................................................................................................................. viii Table of Contents ............................................................................................................... ix List of Tables ................................................................................................................... xiv List of Figures ................................................................................................................... xv Chapter 1: Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 1. 1. The Nature of the Problem ...................................................................................... 1 1. 2. Objectives of Research ............................................................................................ 2 1. 3. Research Questions ................................................................................................. 3 1. 4. Research Scope ....................................................................................................... 4 Chapter 2: Literature Review .............................................................................................. 6 2. 1. Conceptualization of Neighborhood Change .......................................................... 6 ix 2. 2. Theories
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