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Buy MOL, Tupras, Motor Oil 3 September 2018 | 10:24PM MSK CEEMEA Refining Bright outlook for CEEMEA Refining; Buy MOL, Tupras, Motor Oil We expect CEEMEA refiners’ margins to increase in coming years as: the global S/D Geydar Mamedov +7(495)645-4041 | balance in the oil products market remains tight, driving global utilization rates [email protected] OOO Goldman Sachs Bank higher, pushing cracks up; and their high complexity will allow the CEEMEA refiners Georgii Gorbatov to benefit from expansion of light-dark product spreads and heavy-light crude +7(495)645-4222 | [email protected] spreads as IMO 2020 approaches. OOO Goldman Sachs Bank 1. High complexity (NCI of c.10) allows CEEMEA refineries to process heavier crudes. This is an advantage as we expect light/heavy crude spreads to expand with IMO 2020 as heavy crude has a higher sulphur content. 2. Product mix: high diesel yields and low fuel oil yields. Three of the five refiners we cover have a fuel oil yield <10% and most have a diesel yield >50%. With IMO 2020 approaching, we expect diesel cracks to expand, and HSFO cracks to collapse bringing parity between fuel oil and coal prices. Overall, we expect the price of CEEMEA refiners’ products basket to increase between now and 2020. 3. High FCF and dividend yields (2017-20E sector dividend CAGR of c.15%): CEEMEA refiners trade at average 2018-20E FCF/dividend yields of 10%/5% vs. US refiners on 7%/3% and Asian refiners on 5%/3%. Key investment ideas: Among the CEEMEA refiners we prefer MOL, Tupras and Motor Oil as: (1) their FCF and dividend yields are the highest in the sector on our estimates; (2) they trade at a discount to historical average valuations; (3) our 2018 EBITDA estimates are c.10% above Bloomberg consensus on average; and (4) we For the exclusive use of [email protected] forecast the highest positive margin impact from expansion of light-dark oil product spreads in coming years. MOL (Buy, CEEMEA Focus List) trades on yields of c.16% (FCF) and c.6% (DY) in 2018-20E on average. We forecast a 2018-20E EBITDA CAGR of 7% and see scope for a special dividend this year. We expect Tupras (Buy) and Motor Oil (Buy) to be the main beneficiaries of expansion in light/heavy crude spreads given the high share of heavier Middle Eastern crude in their feedstock mix. We expect average 2018-20E FCF yields for Tupras and Motor Oil of c.17% and DY of c.17% & c.8% (c.9% if buyback added). We initiate coverage of Neste Oil and PKN with Neutral ratings. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html . Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Goldman Sachs CEEMEA Refining Table of Contents CEEMEA refining in 12 charts 3 PM Summary 5 Macro snapshot: Oil demand growth & IMO 2020 to push utilization rates higher 6 What does it mean for product cracks? 8 What does it mean for light-heavy crude spreads? 9 High complexity refiners able to process heavier crudes with low fuel oil yield and higher diesel output are best positioned 10 What about petrochemical exposure? 13 Attractive on FCF and DY vs. global peers; Tupras, MOL and Motor Oil stand out 16 MOL: Strong FCF generation to provide financial capacity to increase dividends; Buy (CEEMEA Focus List) 18 Tupras: Industry-leading dividend yield, supported by strong FCF generation; Buy 25 Motor Oil: Strong FCF generation and growing dividends; Buy 31 PKN: Flattish FCF generation outlook, no near-term dividend growth; Neutral 36 Neste: Renewables capex growth to put pressure on FCF generation, dividend increase is priced in; Neutral 42 Valuation 48 Disclosure Appendix 49 For the exclusive use of [email protected] 3 September 2018 2 Goldman Sachs CEEMEA Refining CEEMEA refining in 12 charts Exhibit 1: We expect global refining S/D to remain tight in the Exhibit 2: IMO 2020 likely to further increase global diesel demand mid-term Marine fuel mix, mbpd Global refining S/D (mbpd) and utilization rate (%) 2.0 85.0% 1.8 84.0% 1.6 1.4 83.0% 1.2 d 82.0% p % b 1.0 m 0.8 81.0% 0.6 80.0% 0.4 79.0% 0.2 0.0 78.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Refining demand Supply from new refinery Utilization rate Source: IEA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: IEA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 3: Higher diesel production will require (1) switching Exhibit 4: Given the scale of demand shift for HSFO we estimate it against gasoline, (2) higher coker runs and (3) higher refining will have to compete with coal in the power sector to clear the utilization rates market Diesel SD bridge, mbpd HSFO destruction 2020, mbpd Source: IEA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: IEA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research For the exclusive use of [email protected] Exhibit 5: We expect light-dark spread to widen into 2020E Exhibit 6: We expect heavy crude spreads to widen into 2020E NWE diesel and fuel oil cracks and light-dark spread, US$/bbl Heavy-light crude spreads, US$/bbl 80.0 10.0 l 9.0 b 60.0 b / 8.0 $ S U 7.0 40.0 , s d 6.0 a e l r b 20.0 5.0 p b s / $ y 4.0 v S 0.0 a U e 3.0 h 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E - t h 2.0 -20.0 g i L 1.0 -40.0 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E -60.0 Iran light-heavy spread Basrah light-heavy spread Diesel crack Fuel oil crack Clean-dirty spread Arab light-heavy spread Brent-Urals spread Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3 September 2018 3 Goldman Sachs CEEMEA Refining Exhibit 7: CEEMEA refiners have high complexity allowing them to Exhibit 8: ...and relatively low fuel oil yield process heavier crudes... CEEMEA refiners 2017/20E fuel oil yields, % CEEMEA refiners NCI (Nelson Complexity Index) 16.0 NEGATIVE Exposure to IMO regulation POSITIVE 14.0 11.5 11.4 12.0 25% 10.1 9.9 10.0 9.5 I C 8.0 % N 20% 6.0 , d l 4.0 e i 15% y 2.0 l i o 0.0 23% l ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) c c y y y y y y a d e d a d a 10% i i e i i i r r l l t e e e c e t n n n n a a b b k k k k a a e a a u a l r r r l r a l g g u u o e o 16% u o u u u n n u r n r n r p p F i i h T u T T T u P e e C C F G F t ( ( ( ( ( i ( ( ( ( ( H H R R 12% 12% L ( ( t r ( i i o k n i e k l a h h l h 5% c o t a k a a c a c a a m m t v u o n 8% s v e i e n z e i l k z r m i j n I r I t i k z z a k u o P i l i a S o a r 5% R 5% 5% C s C e i P D a i 4% 4% ( ( C B t z K N a a v y r o p 0% M B n u i l v a t r i Motor Oil PKN Tupras Neste MOL K L Motor Neste MOL Tupras PKN 2017 2020E Oil Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 9: CEEMEA refiners have higher FCF yields vs. Asian and US Exhibit 10: ...as well as higher dividend yields peers... 2018-20E average dividend yield, % 2018-20E average FCF yield, % 12.0% 6.0% 5.2% 10.0% 9.5% 5.0% % % , , d d l l e 8.0% 4.0% e i i y y 6.9% F v i C d F 6.0% g 3.0% 2.7% g v v 2.5% 4.9% a a E E 0 0 2 2 - - 4.0% 2.0% 8 8 1 1 0 0 2 2 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% CEEMEA refiners US refiners Asian refiners CEEMEA refiners Asian refiners US refiners Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet Exhibit 11: Among CEEMEA refiners Tupras, MOL and Motor Oil Exhibit 12: ...and dividend yield; Tupras, Motor OIl and MOL trade at For the exclusive use of [email protected] stand out both on FCF yield... a discount vs. history 2018-20E average FCF yield, % 2018-20E average dividend yield, % 2018-2020E average FCF yield, % Mid-cycle historical average 2018-2020E average dividend yield Mid-cycle historical average 20.0% 18.0% 16.6% 17.4% 18.0% 16.6% 16.3% 16.0% 16.0% 14.0% 14.0% % 12.0% , % d l , 12.0% e i d l 10.0% y e 8.4% i 10.0% d y 8.6% n 8.0% F e d C 8.0% i F v 5.5% i 6.0% 5.2% D 6.0% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% TUPRAS MOTOR OIL MOL PKN NESTE TUPRAS MOTOR OIL MOL PKN NESTE Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet 3 September 2018 4 Goldman Sachs CEEMEA Refining PM Summary Global macro environment is supportive for the refining industry.
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