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The Refining Sector in Greece: Contribution to the Economy and Prospects FOUNDATION FOR ECONOMIC & INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH 11 Tsami Karatasou, 117 42 Athens, Greece, Tel.: +30 210-9211 200-10, Fax: +30210-9233 977 The Refining Sector in Greece: Contribution to the Economy and Prospects Svetoslav Danchev and George Maniatis May 2014 <Contents 2 The Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research is a private, non-profit, public benefit research organization. It was established in order to promote scientific research on the current and emerging problems of the Greek economy and to provide reliable information and generate proposals useful to policy makers. The views on policy issues and proposals contained herein express the views of the researchers and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the IOBE members or its administration. Copyright 2014 Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research This study may not be reproduced in any form or for any purpose without the prior knowledge and consent of the publisher. Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) 11, Tsami Karatasou Str, 117 42 Athens Tel.: (+30 210 9211200-10), Fax: (+30 210 9228130 & 210 9233977) E-mail: [email protected] - URL: http://www.iobe.gr Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research 3 The refining sector in Greece: Contribution to the economy and prospects Contents Contents ................................................................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 5 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 9 2. Market environment ................................................................................................ 10 2.1. The cost of crude oil supplies ................................................................................... 10 2.2. Refining capacity ...................................................................................................... 12 2.3. Demand of petroleum products in Europe ............................................................... 13 2.4. Refining margins ...................................................................................................... 15 2.5. Domestic demand and production ........................................................................... 16 2.6. Financing costs ......................................................................................................... 20 2.7. Energy cost ............................................................................................................... 21 3. The contribution of the refining sector to the Greek economy .............................. 25 3.1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 25 3.2. Main structural statistics ......................................................................................... 26 3.3. Exports and contribution to trade balance .............................................................. 29 3.4. The total contribution of the refining sector to the Greek economy ....................... 32 3.5. The contribution of the sector of trade of petroleum products ............................... 36 4. EU policies and their impact on the competitiveness of the refining sector ........... 41 4.1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 41 4.2. Emission trading scheme .......................................................................................... 41 4.3. Industrial Emissions Directive ................................................................................... 44 4.4. Fuel Quality Directive ............................................................................................... 46 5. Conclusion and policy implications .......................................................................... 47 5.1. Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 47 5.2. Policy implications .................................................................................................... 49 References ............................................................................................................................... 51 Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research <Contents 4 List of Figures Figure 2.1: Crude oil import cost in Greece, 1980-2012 ......................................................................... 11 Figure 2.2: Brent price evolution and volatility, Jan 2010-Jan 2014 ....................................................... 11 Figure 2.3: Change in refining capacity, 2008-2012 (in thousand barrels per day) ................................ 12 Figure 2.4: Refining capacity additions worldwide, 2013-2018 (in thousand barrels daily)................... 13 Figure 2.5: Gasoline and diesel oil demand in the European Union ...................................................... 14 Figure 2.6: Demand for gasoline and diesel oil in countries of South Europe ........................................ 15 Figure 2.7: Benchmark refining margins, Mediterranean region (Q1:2005 – Q4: 2013) ........................ 16 Figure 2.8: Production, demand, imports and exports of petroleum products in Greece, 1990-2012 .. 17 Figure 2.9: Decomposition of the change in petroleum products’ sales in domestic and international markets, 2008-2013est. (in percentage points) .................................................................. 18 Figure 2.10: Trade balance (in volume) and extroversion of refining sector in Greece, 1990-2012 ...... 19 Figure 2.11: Projected final energy demand and oil products’ demand based on existing EU policies . 20 Figure 2.12: Interest rate differentials of business loans in Greece vs Eurozone................................... 20 Figure 2.13: Energy price indeces in Industry, 1993-2012 (2010=100) .................................................. 21 Figure 2.14: Excise duty rates for natural gas and electricity in Industry ............................................... 23 Figure 3.1: Supply chain of oil from the Greek market perspective ....................................................... 25 Figure 3.2: Gross value added and employment in petroleum refining sector, 2005-2012* ................. 27 Figure 3.3: Industrial production and turnover index of the Greek refining sector, 2000-2013 ............ 27 Figure 3.4: Refining sector’s position in domestic manufacturing, 2011 ............................................... 28 Figure 3.5: Exports and imports of petroleum products and their share in total trade of goods, 2002- 2012 (in billion euros) ......................................................................................................... 30 Figure 3.6: Evolution of the exports of Greek petroleum products ....................................................... 31 Figure 3.7: Level and composition of exports of Greek petroleum products in 2012 ............................ 31 Figure 3.8: Input-Output tables and types of impacts to the economy ................................................. 32 Figure 3.9: Direct, Indirect and Induced impact of refining sector on GDP and Employment, 2012 (in million euros) ...................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 3.10: Evolution of excise duties on gasoline and diesel oil .......................................................... 38 Figure 3.11: Excise duty rates on gasoline and diesel oil in the EU ........................................................ 39 Figure 4.1: Projection of the balance of CO2 emission allowances for the refining sector, 2013-2020 . 43 Figure 4.2: Trade intensity index of the refining sector, 2005-2012 ...................................................... 44 List of Tables Table 2.1: Sales of petroleum products in domestic and international markets, 2007-2013p (in thousand tones) ..................................................................................................................... 17 Table 2.2: Indicative estimation of the benefit for the refining sector by reducing taxes and other charges on electricity tariffs .................................................................................................. 24 Table 3.1: Capacity of Greek refineries, 2013......................................................................................... 26 Table 3.2: Main structural statistics of the Greek refining sector, 2005-2011 (in million euros) ........... 26 Table 3.3: Economic impact of the refining sector in Greece, 2012 (in million euros) .......................... 34 Table 3.4: Economic impact of the refining sector by economic activity, 2012 ..................................... 35 Table 3.5: Key figures for the fuel trade sector ...................................................................................... 37 Table 3.6: Estimation of the impact on the financial results of fuel trade companies from the provision of 30 credit days for the excise duty payment ...................................................................... 40 Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research 5 The refining sector in Greece: Contribution to the economy and prospects Executive Summary The present study analyses the market environment of the Greek refineries,
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