Protest without Repression: Protest policing and nonviolent resistance in the US by Nicolas K. Dumas B.A., Washington University in St. Louis (2014) Submitted to the Department of Political Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY September 2020 ○c Nicolas K. Dumas, MMXX. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Author................................................................ Department of Political Science August 20, 2020 Certified by. Adam J. Berinsky Mitsui Professor of Political Science Thesis Supervisor Accepted by . Fotini Christia Professor of Political Science Chair, Department Committee on Graduate Theses 2 Protest without Repression: Protest policing and nonviolent resistance in the US by Nicolas K. Dumas Submitted to the Department of Political Science on August 20, 2020, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Abstract Activists often identify violent repression, and ensuing backlash, as a key mechanism through which peaceful protests can successfully achieve political change. This view has been affirmed by a body of research showing that the violent repression of protest can raise awareness of and build support for the protesters. And US history has many examples of these repression backlash benefiting protesters, from the Birmingham bus boycotts to the “Bonus Army" March on Washington, to the Kent State shootings. However, in the United States, and in other western democracies, the probability of violent police repression of protests has varied significantly over time, as a result of a multitude of institutional factors. While the impacts of repressed protest have been documented, how peaceful protests fare in the absence of repression is less well- understood. This dissertation explores whether the absence of repression impacts protests’ ability to capture attention and persuade the public, and whether the absence of repression impacts the types of protests that are successful. To answer these two questions, I draw on a wide array of data sources, including a novel dataset of local protests coded from protest permit applications, geo-referenced Google search data, Wikipedia page-view data, New York Times coverage data, historical archives of an activist group’s internal communications. I show that, while repression makes it easier for protests to garner news coverage, command public attention, and persuade the public, it is not a necessary condition. Peaceful protests can achieve these outcomes without repression if they can become newsworthy in other ways, such as by increasing the scale of the protest. I also show that in the absence of repression, the types of protests that achieve success are similar in background to the protests that achieve success in the presence of repression. Unlike some other forms of political participation, the resources needed to succeed without repression do not appear to be skewed towards individuals or groups with higher socio-economic status. Although the probability of violent repression changes over time, protests continue to serve as an effective tactic for a relatively small group to capture attention and 3 build broader support. Thesis Supervisor: Adam J. Berinsky Title: Mitsui Professor of Political Science 4 Acknowledgments Inferring counterfactuals is a difficult task, but I can say with confidence thatthis dissertation would be nowhere near complete (nor would it likely even have been started) without the kindness, support, and encouragement of an enormous number of people. There are far many to enumerate, and I’m sure that I have benefitted from the help and kindness of people that I was unaware of. I have been lucky to have phenomenal teachers my entire life, from the late Karen Robinette in pre-school, to Kiyomi Masatani in third grade, to Kaye Paugh in high school, to name just a few. I also benefited from a fantastic college education at Washington University in St. Louis. I had wonderful mentors in college, including Michael J. Nelson, Andrew Martin, Matthew Gabel, John Patty, Maggie Penn, Jacob Montgomery, and Gary Miller, without whom I would not have gone to graduate school. And I have learned so much from the entire faculty at MIT Political Science, who are a testament to the idea that one can be both a world-class researcher, and a great mentor and colleague and person. Taken classes with, or collaborating with, Charles Stewart, Lily Tsai, Danny Hidalgo, Teppei Yamamoto, In Song Kim, Ariel White, Chris Warshaw, Rich Nielsen, Gina Bateson, to name a few, has been an extraordinary opportunity. Throughout my time in graduate school, my fellow graduate students, includ- ing Marsin Alshamary, Kacie Miura, Guillermo Toral, Nicholas Intscher, Rachel Es- plin Odell, Olivia Bergman, Ignacio Puente, Kyle Shohfi, Meg Goldberg, Justin de Benedictis-Kessner, and Dan de Kadt, have been an invaluable source of support, friendship, and inspiration. I remember our first two years, when we spent hours ev- ery day poring over notes and problem sets, quizzing each other to prepare for exams. I remember spending a delightful Thanksgiving together in Boston. I remember fas- cinating arguments both in and out of the classroom. These memories are as valuable to me than the degree itself. I’m enormously grateful to have gotten the chance to spend my twenties with such a wonderful, brilliant group of people. I would like to thank the administrative staff at the Political Science department. 5 I’m confident that 50% of Susan Twarog’s time the past six years has been answering emails from me. The entire staff, including Zina, Paula, Diana, Janine, Kate, and Maria, have been invaluable sources of support and assistance throughout the years. They were always there to help me in those scatterbrained months leading up to the new school year, and in the scatterbrained months ever since. I have also been fortunate to have an extraordinary committee. Devin Caughey was the instructor for my two-person American Political Institutions class, and he’s one of the most well-read people I’ve ever met. His knowledge of historical facts, and debates and questions is something I had never seen in a political scientist, but it has inspired me to always keep an eye for how my research speaks to history. Andrea was my instructor in my first semester of graduate school and I couldn’t imagine a warmer welcome to the world of political science and academia. I’ve always admired how her research is always grounded in the practical impact it has on the lives of real people. She’s the kind of researcher I aspire to be. Adam is the most attentive advisor I could imagine. He’ll respond to work often within a day or so, with detailed feedback. He has an ability to immediately identify the weaknesses or strengths in an argument that is unparalleled. Not every advi- sor responds graciously when their student tells them they are planning on leaving academia, but Adam was not just supportive but actively helpful in helping me secure an internship and full-time position. He has also been a supportive mentor as I try to navigate research in the private sector. He and his wife Deirdre were the faculty residents for my graduate dorm, and were my very first introduction to life in Boston. At a time when I was far away from my home, in a foreign, new, and extremely cold place, they were a source of warmth and support. In the interest of reducing stigma around these things, it’s important for me to note that invaluable role that mental health care, including medication, had on both my general well-being, and my ability to work on this dissertation. My brain works differently and it wasn’t until grad school that I finally understood why some things seemed insurmountably difficult for me that were easier for others. I’m learning how to cope with these challenges and I deeply appreciate the support and care of my 6 providers along the way leading to this point. Finally, I’d like to acknowledge my family. I’d like to thank my grandparents, Kazem and Nazireh; my uncles Farid and Farshid; and my cousins Nikki, Nousha, and Keyon. I’d like to thank my parents, Firoozeh and Francois, who are more excited about my earning this degree than I am, and who have been role models for me in so many ways; my brilliant, insightful, and kind sisters, Sophie and Eloise, who have been such a joy to grow with; and my infinitely patient partner, Michael. 7 8 Contents 1 Introduction 17 2 Protest Repression and Media Coverage 35 3 (How) Can Contemporary Protests Capture Attention? 61 4 Is Protest News Coverage Persuasive Without Repression? 79 5 Repression and Representation 99 6 Appendix 131 9 10 List of Figures 1-1 Peaceful protests in DOCA were more likely to be violently repressed during the 1960s, and when they supported black civil rights . 25 1-2 ANES Feeling Thermometer Scores for different protest movements from 1970 to 2016. While there is variation, no protest movement has scored over 80, and most score below 60. 27 2-2 Repressed and non-repressed protests in the DOCA dataset. There was a particularly large spike in repressed protests in the 1960s. More re- cent decades saw a much greater proportion of non-repressed protests. 42 2-3 The distribution of page numbers and number of paragraphs for re- pressed and non-repressed protests. On average, repressed protests received longer coverage, earlier in the paper. 45 2-4 NYT coverage of countries with repressed protests was greater, over a longer period of time, than countries with non-repressed protests.