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Israel and the Middle East News Update

Wednesday, June 29

Headlines:  Cabinet Approves Turkey Reconciliation Deal  International Community Condemns ‘Despicable’ Istanbul Attack  ’s Security Figures Take Aim at Hard-Line Netanyahu  MKs Banned from Entering Temple Mount Due to Riots  MKs to Ban: Eliminate ‘Poisonous’ Anti-Israel Discrimination from UN  Egypt Foreign Minister to Visit Ramallah for Peace Plan Powwow  Lieberman Wants Carrot and Stick Policy in the West Bank  Jordan Widens ISIS Crackdown Amid Signs of Home-Grown Extremism

Commentary:  Yedioth Ahronoth: “The Fantasy of Replacing Netanyahu”  By Amnon Abramovich, Israeli journalist and Political Commentator, Israel Channel 2 News  Al-Monitor: “Israel and Turkey Have Reconciled, Now What?”  By Ben Caspit, Israel Pulse Columnist, Al-Monitor

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts June 29, 2016

Ynet News Cabinet Approves Turkey Reconciliation Deal Government ministers approved the Israel-Turkey reconciliation deal on Wednesday afternoon following a heated four-hour cabinet discussion on a deal which was already signed on Tuesday. As expected, Education Minister , Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked and Defense Minister opposed the agreement. Prior to the cabinet discussions, Bennett and Shaked exited their vehicles to speak to the families of IDF officer Hadar Goldin, IDF soldier Oron Shaul, and Israeli citizen Avra Mangisto directly. See also, “Despite Protests, Ministers Give Go-Ahead to Turkey Reconciliation Deal” (Times of Israel)

Times of Israel International Community Condemns ‘Despicable’ Istanbul Attack The international community hastened to condemn Tuesday evening’s triple suicide bombing and gun attack at Istanbul’s Ataturk airport that killed 36 and wounded more than 140. Though there was no immediate claim of responsibility for the carnage, Turkey’s prime minister said initial signs pointed to an assault by the Islamic State jihadist group. See also, “Istanbul Airport Bombings Kill 41 People, Leave 239 Wounded” (Ha'aretz) See also, “Istanbul Ataturk Airport Reopens After Deadly Attack” (NBC News)

Fox News Israel's Security Figures Take Aim at Hard-Line Netanyahu Long-serving Prime Minister faces a potentially formidable challenge to his hardline rule — not from Israel's civilian politicians but instead from its revered security establishment. An extraordinary array of former top commanders are criticizing Netanyahu in increasingly urgent terms, accusing him of mishandling the Palestinian issue and allying with extremists bent on dismantling Israel's democracy. On Tuesday, a group representing more than 200 retired leaders in Israel's military, police, Mossad spy service and Shin Bet security agency presented a plan to help end the half-century occupation of the Palestinians through unilateral steps, including disavowing claims to over 90% of the West Bank and freezing settlement construction. See also, “Israeli Generals Offer New Peace Initiative” (The Media Line)

Israel Radio News MKs Banned from Entering Temple Mount Due to Riots MKs will not be permitted to visit the Temple Mount until further notice due to the disturbances that have taken place in the compound in the past few days. This was decided last night by Prime Minister Netanyahu and Public Security Minister . Visits by MKs to the Temple Mount were barred upon the start of the wave of terrorism eight months ago, but in recent days it was planned to permit Arab MKs to visit the Mount on the occasion of Ramadan. The matter will be discussed again next week. See also, “After Days of Riots, PM Renews Ban on MKs at Temple Mount” (Times of Israel)

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Jerusalem Post MKs: Eliminate ‘Poisonous’ Anti-Israel Discrimination from UN The UN must rid itself of anti-Israel bias and engage honestly with Israelis, Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee members (Kulanu) and Omer Bar-Lev (Zionist Union) wrote in a letter to visiting UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon Tuesday. The MKs asked Ban to take advantage of his trip to reach out to Israelis to regain their confidence in the UN. According to Oren and Bar- Lev, 70 percent of Israelis do not have confidence in the intergovernmental organization, though they did not cite a source for the statistic. See also, “UN Chief Calls on Bibi to Prevent One-State Reality” (Ha'aretz) See also, “Quartet to Avoid Branding Settlements as 'Illegal'” (Arutz Sheva)

Times of Israel Egypt Foreign Minister to Visit Ramallah for Peace Powwow Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry will travel to Ramallah on Wednesday to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, and discuss his country’s role in the Israel- Palestinian peace process. Shoukry will discuss Egypt’s part in achieving a two-state solution and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, the Palestinian news site Wattan reported. He is reportedly carrying a personal message from Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi to Abbas. While in Ramallah for the rare visit, the Egyptian foreign minister will reportedly discuss the results of a Paris summit earlier this month.

Jerusalem Post Lieberman Wants Carrot and Stick Policy in the West Bank The IDF should pursue a “differential” security policy, by which it would act with a “firm hand” in Palestinian areas from which many terrorist attacks originate, and ease conditions in areas that have not generated many attacks, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said Tuesday. He spoke after touring Central Command, where he received a briefing from OC Central Command Maj.-Gen. Roni Numa and other senior officers. In areas that have been quiet, the military should ease conditions on a larger level and for individual Palestinian civilians, Liberman said. “This way, everyone will know that there are consequences for both directions,” the defense minister said.

Ynet News Jordan Ups ISIS Crackdown Amid Signs of Home-Grown Terror Two dozen men charged with supporting ISIS are squeezed into a cage in Jordan's state security court. After brief questioning from a judge, they file back out, and guards usher in the next group of accused militants. The court's heavy load is part of a widening domestic crackdown on the extremist group. Hundreds have been sentenced to prison, are awaiting trial, or are being held for questioning about links to ISIS. Under toughened anti-terror laws, even liking or sharing the group's propaganda on social media can land someone a prison sentence. Some say the crowded court rooms - along with recent attacks - signal that the pro-Western kingdom has a more serious problem with home- grown extremism than it has acknowledged in public. See also, “Islamic State Claims Jordan Suicide Bombing” (Long War Journal)

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Yedioth Ahronoth – June 29, 2016 The Fantasy of Replacing Netanyahu By Amnon Abramovich  No one knows when elections are going to be held. But one thing that is certain it is that the is going to be headed by Netanyahu once again. That is to be the case despite the fact that his fellow party members and many of his voters believe that he has run his course. It seems to me that even he is even beginning to grow tired of himself. And yet, there is no one in the Likud who will run against him, and nor is there a party that can defeat him. Unless a new party is formed. A party of that kind is going to have to organize well in advance. It is going to have to emerge from the right wing and position itself in the center, and it is going to have to be national and liberal in nature. A new Kadima. Its leadership can be filled by Moshe Yaalon, , Gidon Saar, , Gabi Ashkenazi.  Yaalon embodies the values of the rule of law and of working Israel. But he is lacking in sex appeal and political skills. He moves from one insult to the next. As the director of military intelligence and OC Central Command he was exposed to Yasser Arafat’s lies and took them personally. As chief of staff he was offended by being kept out of the loop on disengagement. As defense minister he was mortally insulted by being replaced with Lieberman, which was the ultimate shaming of his career—thus far. We’ve now had an opportunity to see him soothing his sense of insult on a trip to India—playing the flute, practicing meditation—and looks more like a man who is focused on making his way to an ashram than to the national leadership; it’s as if he has sublimated his withdrawal from his political party with a spiritual withdrawal from the physical world.  Lapid created a party out of thin air and stabilized its standing admirably. But his record as finance minister is thin and truncated. His experience in the realm of foreign policy and security is limited to his membership in the security cabinet. He is well-liked by the Israeli center. He is the center’s favorite. His veer to the right wing, to the traditionally-observant sector, has been deemed a success. But Lapid does not yet have the requisite experience to be a candidate for prime minister. He might have a future, but that future is probably not particularly close at hand [ means “there is a future”]. He is likely to be very reluctant to part ways with the party he gave birth to and to enroll it in a major secondary school—in other words, to integrate it in a larger bloc.  Moshe Kahlon would do well not to run on an independent list since the results of doing so are entirely predictable. Joining the Likud in one form or another is not an option as far as he is concerned. He didn’t quit the Likud only to revert to being Bibi’s lackey. Joining a new party would be the preferred option for him, particularly since he doesn’t aspire to be prime minister. He is going to want to serve another term as finance minister in order to leave the mark he hasn’t been able to make until now.  Gidon Saar was born in the Likud and comes from its midst. That is an advantageous starting position. The goal, ultimately, is going to be to win over people who voted for the Likud in the past. He was the most senior Likud minister and served as education minister, interior minister and as a member of several security cabinets. If he is augmented by Yaalon and Gabi Ashkenazi, that will make up for his lacking background in security.

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 It will be important for a party of that kind to bring on, for example, Gila Gamliel and Orly Levy- Abekasis. The most salient sign that a party of that sort is going to win the elections will be the day when Zeev Elkin decides to join it.  For a generation, the Labor Party has been driving at an irritatingly slow speed in the left-hand lane of the highway, blocking the emergence of a real left wing party. It is has also been preventing a center party from overtaking. What is the solution? There are several politicians, first and foremost , who aspire to form a large center-left bloc. Livni evidently is intent on building that bloc around herself. The establishment of a center-left bloc is doomed to fail. The establishment of a center-right bloc, with a separate left wing bloc, is what is needed at present.  The left wing of the Labor Party needs to join forces with : Shelly Yachimovich, , Stav Shaffir and Yossi Yona. They will be able to enhance Meretz and make it thrive, restoring it to its past glory when it won a dozen seats.  The Labor Party itself will stand one step to the left of the new Kadima. It needs to elect as its leader someone like Erel (kibinimat!) Margalit or . Margalit is a good embodiment of the current zeitgeist, and can be a more tempered Israeli version of Donald Trump, one who is suited to the local climate. Peretz is right when he says that he can defeat Bibi and the Likud in the communities in the periphery.  If that political parceling is achieved, and the political landscape is redivided and reunited along those lines, Netanyahu and the Likud will be trounced and defeated. But a development of that kind appears at present to be a mere fantasy, a children’s fairytale, because to achieve that will require a reengineering of human nature, the castration of emotions and a quashing of a great many politicians’ egos. Amnon Abramovich is an Israeli journalist and political commentator for Israel Channel 2 news.

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Al-Monitor – June 27, 2016 Israel and Turkey Have Reconciled, Now What? By Ben Caspit  The teams of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finally agreed today on the details of a bilateral reconciliation agreement. But why didn't this happen three years ago? On March 22, 2013, US President Barack Obama left Israel after a successful three-day visit to Jerusalem and Ramallah. At the time, the United States and Israel were exerting considerable efforts to ensure the visit’s success. It was supposed to mark a turning point, setting Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on a new and better path. It was intended to turn back the four disastrous years that preceded it.  The cherry on top was presumed to be the last few minutes of the visit. After considerable softening by the Americans, Netanyahu was supposed to call Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to apologize for the Mavi Marmara incident, in which Israeli naval commandos killed 10 Turkish citizens, who tried to break through Israel’s blockade of Gaza three years earlier, in May 2010. Obama was set to play the patron of this conversation, which would take place within hearing of a special media trailer installed at Ben Gurion Airport, just moments before Air Force One was scheduled to take off for home.  In the runup to that phone call, everything that could go wrong did, including Israeli telephone technicians not being able to get through to the Turkish leader’s office. Obama and Netanyahu were forced to wait several long minutes until Erdogan finally got on the line. That’s how it has been all along in this soiled and fickle relationship between the two former allies. In the end, the phone call took place, Netanyahu apologized and Obama was convinced that Turkish- Israel reconciliation was right around the corner.  The problem is that more than three years have passed since then. The two sides dragged their feet, pushing off the final closure of their reconciliation for as long as possible. They pondered and struggled with the painful acceptance that despite the mutual antagonism, neither country had a choice: Israel and Turkey need each other, now more than ever. Both Erdogan and Netanyahu preferred to hold their noses and ignore the background noises and the rumblings in their bellies by pursuing normalization and renewing diplomatic relations between the two countries. The alternative was worse.  No one in Israel was fooled. The relationship would never be what it once was. A close military and intelligence alliance between the two countries is no longer possible. The Turkish army is not what it once was; Erdogan stripped the Turkish generals of their authority and made them subject to his Islamic government. The chance that Israeli air force pilots would be allowed to fly “reconnaissance missions” over Turkey’s eastern border with Iran still tends toward zero. Even the tight and prolific intelligence cooperation that was once par for the course between the two nations would not repeat itself. What we should expect is an ad hoc partnership based on common interests, shared suspicions and the kind of bargaining that one would expect to find in the Turkish bazaar. Israel and Turkey are equally worried about Iranian influence in Syria. They both share the same concerns regarding an Iranian Shiite state pressed up against the border fence on the Golan Heights and Idlib. 6

 Having many fronts and challenges to deal with, Erdogan had to cut his losses and reduce the number of unnecessary fronts. The one he opened against Israel was the most superfluous of all. And so, he climbed down from his tree, taking with him his demand that Israel lift its naval blockade of Gaza. That being said, he did receive a candy in return, with the possibility of sending goods to the Gaza Strip through the Israeli port in Ashdod, and of developing projects in Gaza. This is a win-win situation, at least as far as Israel is concerned. These kinds of projects would make life easier for Hamas and reduce the overall pressure in Gaza. This, in turn, could postpone the next Hamas-Israel round of fighting.  For its part, Israel was forced to swallow quite a few bitter pills. It apologized and committed itself to paying some $20 million in compensation for something that every Israeli considers a pure act of terror by the Turkish government. It is enabling the Hamas command center to remain in Istanbul, and it made no progress in getting back the bodies of two Israeli soldiers — Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, who were killed during Operation Protective Edge in the summer of 2014 — still held by Hamas. It is true that as a last-minute gesture, Erdogan sent Netanyahu a letter in which he committed himself to doing what he can to see the two corpses returned to Israel, along with two other Israeli citizens who disappeared in Gaza. This letter was sent following a secret visit by the director of Israel’s Mossad, Yossi Cohen, to Ankara about a week ago. Nonetheless, that letter is far from consolation for the families of the missing soldiers. On June 26, they launched an open campaign against the government, the first since their loved ones fell in Operation Protective Edge.  No country is as sensitive to the fate of its soldiers as Israel, regardless of whether they are alive or dead. Shaul and Goldin fell in Operation Protective Edge, and their bodies were seized by Hamas. The Israel Defense Forces declared them casualties, even though their bodies were not found in the field. They relied instead on forensic evidence collected at the site of the fighting; they were declared dead despite the absence of bodies, with the agreement of the chief rabbi of the IDF. The families conceded to this and even sat shiva, the seven-day Jewish period of mourning, for their lost sons. The government’s leadership had hoped that by doing this, they could “skip” the stage in which a public campaign is launched to return the soldiers, just as happened with Gilad Shalit, who was abducted by Hamas and only returned after five years in captivity, in 2011.  This hope held strong until news of the reconciliation agreement between Israel and Turkey made the news. The fact that Israel allowed the Turks to send supplies to Hamas without receiving the bodies of its missing soldiers in return enraged the soldiers’ families. On June 26, a protest tent occupied by the Shaul family was set up outside the prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem. The family of Goldin shared similar feelings. Goldin was the nephew of former Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, who opposed reconciliation with Turkey all along. His successor, Avigdor Liberman, is not thrilled about the reconciliation either, but he is forced to show restraint. Liberman promised that he would not obstruct the agreement, during his discussions with Netanyahu over his appointment as defense minister.  The reconciliation began with no celebrations whatsoever. It was treated as a necessity, practically imposed on the two leaders. There is no joy at this wedding, but there is no alternative either. Ben Caspit is a columnist for Al-Monitor's Israel Pulse and columnist for other Israeli newspapers. 7