sign in sign up
<<
Home , Gila Gamliel, Likud, The Closer

www.ssoar.info

The dynamics of a right-wing coalition: how the failure of the peace process encourages domestic populism in Lintl, Peter

Veröffentlichungsversion / Published Version Stellungnahme / comment

Zur Verfügung gestellt in Kooperation mit / provided in cooperation with: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)

Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation: Lintl, P. (2016). The dynamics of a right-wing coalition: how the failure of the peace process encourages domestic populism in Israel. (SWP Comment, 45/2016). Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit. https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-48905-0

Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Dieser Text wird unter einer Deposit-Lizenz (Keine This document is made available under Deposit Licence (No Weiterverbreitung - keine Bearbeitung) zur Verfügung gestellt. Redistribution - no modifications). We grant a non-exclusive, non- Gewährt wird ein nicht exklusives, nicht übertragbares, transferable, individual and limited right to using this document. persönliches und beschränktes Recht auf Nutzung dieses This document is solely intended for your personal, non- Dokuments. Dieses Dokument ist ausschließlich für commercial use. All of the copies of this documents must retain den persönlichen, nicht-kommerziellen Gebrauch bestimmt. all copyright information and other information regarding legal Auf sämtlichen Kopien dieses Dokuments müssen alle protection. You are not allowed to alter this document in any Urheberrechtshinweise und sonstigen Hinweise auf gesetzlichen way, to copy it for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the Schutz beibehalten werden. Sie dürfen dieses Dokument document in public, to perform, distribute or otherwise use the nicht in irgendeiner Weise abändern, noch dürfen Sie document in public. dieses Dokument für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke By using this particular document, you accept the above-stated vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, aufführen, vertreiben oder conditions of use. anderweitig nutzen. Mit der Verwendung dieses Dokuments erkennen Sie die Nutzungsbedingungen an.

Introduction

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Comments

The Dynamics of a Right-wing Coalition WP How the Failure of the Peace Processes Encourages Domestic Populism in Israel

Peter Lintl S

Israel has been increasingly criticised for violating substantive democratic principles. The trigger was a series of decisions and initiatives. In July 2016, the adopted a stricter transparency law for non-governmental organisations (NGOs) financed from abroad, as well as a law empowering it to divest its members of their mandate. For weeks and months, government had made various suggestions for closer oversight of cultural and media institutions (for instance). There has also been repeated disapproval of Su- preme Court judgements, which went hand in hand with calls for Parliament to be en- abled to overrule its verdicts. These advances have had negative repercussions not just in Israel, but internationally as well.

The parties of the ruling coalition – , time at the moment. However, what is often Yisrael Beitenu, , , Torah Judaism overlooked is that these legal initiatives and Jewish Home – are located on the right tend to come from a part of the govern- of the , with the partial ment which is seen as populist or radical, exception of Kulanu. International and and is located on the right fringe of the Israeli media are calling the government political spectrum. Moreover, the forays are “the most right-wing government of all rarely successful since they fail to obtain time”. While this is a comment referring a majority even within government. None- to the parties’ basic political orientation, theless, they are having an influence on it also points to their political work. Cer- the coalition, especially where its agenda- tain laws and draft bills in particular are setting is concerned. drawing critical attention from the point This puts especially Prime Minister and of view of substantial democracy and its Likud chair in a tight premises, such as minority rights, freedom spot since it forces him to compete for elec- of expression and the separation of powers. toral votes with these currents. Because of Israel, it is claimed, is moving closer to- this constellation, political discourse in wards a formal democracy, in which sub- Israel as a whole is moving to the right. The stantive rights can be curtailed by majority strength of the political right wing, how- decision. Debates on such proposals cer- ever, can also be explained by Israelis’ dis- tainly take up much of the government’s illusionment with the peace process, and

Peter Lintl is a researcher in the project “Israel and its regional and global conflicts: Domestic developments, SWP Comments 45 security issues and foreign affairs”. The project is conducted within the Middle East and Africa Division of SWP and October 2016 funded by the German Federal Foreign Office.

1 the weakness of the opposition parties, they strive for a “state for all citizens” in- in particular the . A party’s stead of a Jewish state. And yet even for stance on the Middle East conflict and its them, that binary pattern forms the politi- possible solutions continues to be a decisive cal frame of reference. criterion in elections. Thus, widespread With the partial exception of Kulanu, all scepticism in Israeli society about the pros- parties in government are from the right of pects of the peace process has handed a po- the political landscape (see diagram). Never- litical advantage to those right-wing parties theless, there is a certain bandwidth of posi- that have always rejected it. Since an almost tions within the coalition, which ranges from flawlessly right-wing government is at the liberal conservative to strictly religious to helms for the first time, its populist compo- a populist or . The latter wants nents are gaining more traction, and are to annexe all settlements in the , trying to push political discourse further something a majority of the Liberal Con- to the right using legislative forays. This dy- servatives is sceptical about. Similar differ- namic is reinforced by the fact that Netan- ences exist on constitutional issues. While yahu depends on votes from the right-wing the right-wing populists of several parties fringe and is therefore willing to adopt their are pressing for substantive liberal-demo- positions at times. What counts as “left- cratic rights to be curtailed in favour of wing” or “right-wing” in Israel, however, is Jewish group rights, the Liberal Conserva- determined by specific lines of conflict in tives are making more of an effort to bal- Israeli society. ance individual and group rights. This constellation has become particu- larly explosive since Netanyahu realised “Right” and “Left” in Israel during the last elections of 2015 (which he Two major topics determine a party’s posi- nearly lost) that his only hope of remaining tion on the right/left divide. In first place is in office as Prime Minister was to consoli- its stance on whether the Middle East con- date his position inside the Right and en- flict can be peacefully settled through the sure that Likud provides the largest of the creation of a Palestinian state or whether Knesset fractions. Given the coalition’s nar- such a state would increase Israel’s threat row majority (67 out of 120 seats), several levels (or whether to go as far as to annexe of its members would be able to topple the the West Bank). The second issue concerns government. This forces the Prime Minister the normative identity of state and society on occasion to adopt populist right-wing in Israel. What is the correct balance be- stances. Over the past few years, he has tween Jewish and liberal-democratic norms repeatedly proved his ideological flexibility in the state, and what does this mean for and shown that he will not shy away from the rights of non-Jewish minorities? The fur- populism when he deems it opportune. The ther to the “right” a party positions itself, therefore finds itself the more emphasis it places on the ethnic in a sort of permanent election campaign and/or religious component of Jewishness for the votes of the right-wing fringe. Poli- in the Israeli state. The further to the “left”, ticians feel obliged to prove that they are the more importance it attributes to uni- the true representatives of the Israeli Right. versal and pluralistic values. When repre- Members of Jewish Home, Likud and Yisrael sentatives of the right fringe of the political Beitenu in particular try to outbid each spectrum highlight the significance of the other in political motions, statements and collective, they are also saying that diver- legislative bills. Most of these are incapable gent opinions are virtually unacceptable of obtaining a majority and are only in- and that non-Jewish parts of the population tended to force their topics onto the agenda do not belong. Arab parties, on the other so as to shift the political discourse. Only hand, are outside the left-right divide since rarely are populist initiatives successful

SWP Comments 45 October 2016

2 Heuristic diagram: Parties’ positions within the Israeli parliamentary system

Liberal democratic

United Arab List* (13)

Meretz (5)

Yesh (11)

Kulanu (10)

Zionist Union (24) Reject two-state settlement

In favour of two-state settlement Yisrael Beitenu (6)

Likud * In many regards, the Arab List escapes this (30 seats) divide, partly because the parties it consists of adopt divergent points of view. None supports the idea of a Jewish state, and each has a dif- Shas (7) Jewish ferent stance on the two-state settlement. Home (8) Torah Judaism (6)

Parties in government As of August 2016 are shown in italics. Jewish republican

enough to be cast into law, for instance as to be bulldozed. Equally controversial was a transparency law for NGOs funded from a proposal by culture and sports minister abroad or a law that regulates the exclusion (Likud) that would make fund- of parliamentarians from the Knesset. ing of cultural and artistic facilities depend- ent on their loyalty towards the state. It is no secret that Regev denies that left-wing Right-wing populist forays or Arab artists possess such loyalty. She One of the best-known attempts is the re- sent questionnaires to artists asking them current demand put forward by justice whether they would be willing to appear minister (Jewish Home) that in West Bank settlements. If not, their state the powers of the Supreme Court, seen as funding would be cut. All Jewish Home par- too liberal, be curtailed. In this matter, liamentarians – but also many of Likud’s she has support of several Likud members (including , Miri Regev, Danny (including Ze’ev Elkin and ). At Danon und Yariv Levin) – de facto demand the start of the legislative period, Shaked the annexation of the Jewish settlements submitted a draft bill that would have in the West Bank. Shaked currently spear- empowered the Knesset to overrule Su- heads this movement by tenaciously draft- preme Court verdicts. Moti Yogev (Jewish ing laws in support of its efforts. As recently Home) even called for the court building as May 2016, she proposed to extend Israeli

SWP Comments 45 October 2016

3 civil law to the settlements to legally har- coalition politicians – including many Kula- monise them with Israel. Education minis- nu parliamentarians, but also Likud mem- ter (Jewish Home) deleted bers such as or – the short story “Borderlife” from the state- have been registering their objections, at school syllabus because it revolves around times strongly. Defence minister Moshe the romantic relationship between a Jewish Ya’alon (Likud) and environmental pro- Israeli woman and a Palestinian man. Knes- tection minister Avi Gabai (Kulanu) stepped set members and Nissan down in May 2016 in protest against grow- Slomiansky (both Jewish Home) submitted ing right-wing populism. a law proposal to make Jewish religious law (Halakha) the main reference point for judges in cases where the legal position is The successes of populist politics unclear. Defence minister Avigdor Lieber- The political dynamic described above not man () has also made his only alters discourses, it also produces name with a series of similar initiatives. tangible political results, as two recently His party has submitted a draft law for the adopted laws demonstrate. reintroduction of the death penalty. Lieber- The first is the high-profile “NGO law”, man also summoned the head of program- which in actual fact is only a change to an ming of Galei Zahal, the , and existing law. It stipulates that NGOs deriv- insisted that poems by the prize-winning ing more than half of their funding from Palestinian poet Mahmoud Darwish – foreign governments or international which had previously (and remarkably) organisations must state so at all official been broadcast by the network – should appearances and in all official correspond- be categorised as seditious. ence. Whilst a clause requiring representa- As mentioned above, most of these pro- tives of such NGOs to wear a corresponding posals are incapable of gaining a parlia- sticker in Parliament was dropped, the law mentary majority from the outset. Shaked’s is nonetheless explosive: 25 of the 27 orga- draft law on the Knesset overruling the Su- nisations expected to be affected are preme Court, for instance, was doomed to considered regime critics. It is true that failure, if for no other reason than Kulanu’s right-leaning Israeli NGOs also receive large veto on this point, which is guaranteed by parts of their funding from abroad, espe- the coalition agreement. Regardless of such cially the US. However, these monies mostly facts, these initiatives often shape national come from private donations, which are and international reporting. Clearly the not covered by the law. The new legislation populist right-wing, which makes up about thus seems tailor-made for publicly branding a third of the coalition, is in a position to organisations that are critical of the govern- drive the rest of the government before it. ment as being controlled from abroad and The aim of these forays is not to write new ‘un-Israeli’. It is also having socio-political legislation, but to open up social discourse repercussions. The nationalist NGO Im to views that have hitherto been considered Tirtzu, for instance, has openly described unacceptable. the organisations concerned as “foreign The conflict between education minister agents” and drawn a direct connection Bennett and Prime Minister Netanyahu between their work, the funding from in late July 2016 was an expression of this abroad and terrorist attacks. Whilst politi- development. The two politicians repeated- cians consistently criticise this and similar ly insulted each other for being “left-wing”, statements as being exaggerated, that can- as each tried to present himself as the bet- not change the fact that, only a few years ter representative of the Israeli Right. How- ago, a contribution of this sort to the politi- ever, there is also opposition to this popu- cal discourse would have been completely list right-wing discourse. More moderate out of the question.

SWP Comments 45 October 2016

4 A second example is the revision of the because in 2012 the Supreme Court had Basic Law ‘The Knesset’. It has enabled Par- criticised a law exempting the ultraortho- liament to vote to exclude individual mem- dox from military service, demanding that bers for perpetrating racist hate crimes or it be revised. This left their parties, Shas supporting the armed fight against Israel. and , no option but The catalyst was a visit of condolence by to resign from government. The ensuing three parliamentarians from the United elections brought in a coalition of parties Arab List to the families of Palestinians who from different ideological stripes, including had been killed while carrying out a terror centrist parties. Irrespective of personal – a visit no doubt also intended to animosities, it was obvious that sooner or provoke. In the original draft bill, a simple later the two major social faultlines – the majority of 61 of the 120 members would peace process and national identity – would have sufficed to justify any exclusion. The play a material role in keeping the peace version that was finally adopted, however, within the coalition. The government col- stipulates that at least 70 Knesset members lapsed after only two years, halfway into its have to agree just to trigger the process, term, over at times violent disagreements. including at least ten from the opposition. It is not surprising, therefore, that, wher- Any exclusion would require the consent ever possible, coalitions are created out of of at least 90 parliamentarians, a number parties that are ideologically close to each unlikely to be reached in Israel’s multi- other. party system. And yet the situation is more complex The law nevertheless remains democrati- than it might at first appear. In the current cally questionable in both theoretical and right-wing coalition, stances on the peace practical terms because it merges the tasks process, for instance, vary greatly. Whilst of the judiciary and the legislative, and all parties share a certain scepticism, Jewish waters down fundamental political rights Home and parts of Likud categorically in favour of majority decision-making. It is reject a two-state settlement. Other Likud another expression of the tendency (typical members see such as settlement a theoreti- of populist politics) towards a majoritarian cally possible, but not feasible for the time democracy, which attempts to remove legal being. Foreign minister Lieberman formu- or constitutional barriers to parliamentary lated his own proposal for a two-state solu- decisions. Having said that, these laws have tion, which called for Arabs living in Israel certainly also shown that populist motions to be resettled. The topic is not a top prior- are attenuated by the parliamentary pro- ity for the ultra-orthodox parties, Shas and cess, especially by resistance by parts of the United Torah Judaism. However, they tend coalition. Still, these examples do indicate a to be critical of the idea, and especially rightward dynamic in Israeli politics. They the division of . In the governing were only made possible by the situation coalition, only Kulanu’s chairman, Moshe in the Israeli parliament, which in turn is Kahlon, has recently called for a resumption directly linked to parties’ positions on the of peace negotiations. peace process: the more closely parties The picture becomes more complicated agree on this subject, the more likely they still if one takes in the rest of the political are to form a coalition. landscape. With the exception of a few voices from the Arab List, all parties sup- port a two-state settlement, although there The peace process with the Palestin- are different estimations of whether and ians and coalition-building in Israel how it might be realised. What is not con- The last two governments exemplify mecha- tested is that steps towards a two-state nisms of coalition-building in Israel. In 2013 settlement are overdue. The closer a party parliamentary elections became necessary is to the political centre (, parts

SWP Comments 45 October 2016

5 of the Zionist Union), the more strongly it but the representatives of Israel’s security campaigns for unilateral action, meaning a mentality believe – and probably not entirely withdrawal from some of the areas without without cause – that PA President Abbas is negotiation. The further left (other parts of unable to commit the Palestinians bindingly the Zionist Union, , Arab List), the on this issue. more it demands negotiations. Even if Netanyahu was a keen enthusiast The situation is, then, as follows: most of a two-state settlement – which he is not – Israeli members of parliament fundamen- his political career would be unlikely to sur- tally regard the two-state settlement as vive a change of policy on this issue. The the best hope for resolving the Middle East departure of any party with more than six conflict (as compared to a one-state settle- seats would be enough to deprive the cur- ment, for instance). At the same time, a rent coalition of its majority. A coalition majority believes that the process cannot that includes opposition parties, however, currently be realised with the Palestinians. would also be difficult for Netanyahu. Since It does not trust the ability or willingness they would in all probability push for mak- of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to prevent ing progress on the peace process, such a attacks from within Palestinian territory. constellation would mean the end of either This largely concurs with the views of the coalition or Netanyahu’s mandate as Israeli society: while there is still a (narrow) prime minister. A substantial section of the majority in support of the two-state settle- Likud parliamentary party categorically re- ment, only 11 percent believe that it can jects two states as a solution to the Middle be brought about in the next ten years. East conflict. Should this possibility be dis- Both Israel’s coalition-building mecha- cussed seriously in future peace negotia- nisms and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s tions, opponents within Likud would pre- changeable position on the peace process – sumably splinter off from the rest of the which oscillates between a cautious first- fraction, as happened under Sharon in time support of the theoretical possibility 2005 when Israel withdrew from Gaza. (2009 keynote address) and a categorical Should that occur, Netanyahu would no rejection of a Palestinian state (2015 elec- longer have the largest parliamentary party tion campaign) – must be viewed against in the Knesset behind him and would be this backdrop. There are a number of forced to resign as prime minister. reasons for his unsteadiness on this matter. These circumstances express the dilemma On the one hand, as prime minister, he of Israeli politics. Whilst a majority of cannot ignore the majority of the popula- Knesset members argues in favour of a two- tion, which is prepared to consider a two- state settlement at least in principle, the state settlement, at least in theory. Inter- party-political constellation only produces national pressure has surely played a role coalitions that work against it. here as well. On the other hand, a number Netanyahu’s current position is there- of factors argue against such a settlement fore relatively clear: he does not reject the from Netanyahu’s point of view. As a rep- principle of a peace process, but he certainly resentative of the classical school of thought does not believe that it can be successful on Israeli security, he proceeds on the either. This is reflected in his attitude to the premise that Israel is locked in a perma- current drive for a new round of the peace nent battle for survival, which requires process. He rejects ’s initiative of pur- military strength, above all else. In addi- suing negotiations on the basis of UN Secu- tion, he is deeply suspicious of the Pales- rity Council Resolutions 242 and 338. In- tinians and has – at least at the moment – stead, he is demanding direct negotiatons substantial doubts about the possibility of with the Palestinians, without any param- a peace agreement with them. Any peace eters being fixed in advance. However, such would have to guarantee Israel’s security, an approach would enable each side to put

SWP Comments 45 October 2016

6 forward maximum demands, complicate at the expense of the other right-wing par- finding compromises, and facilitate break- ties. This forces him to compete with the ing off the talks – a scenario that is abso- right-wing fringe for electoral votes – a lutely in Netanyahu’s interests at this time. game he is prepared to play. Second, the He skilfully headed off Egyptian President coalition only has a narrow majority. Most Sisi’s call for direct negotiations with a sug- of its parties could topple the government. gestion of his own. He welcomed Sisi’s chal- Actors on the fringes of the political spec- lenge in principle, but tied it to the broader trum thus have greater room for manoeuvre perspective of the so-called Saudi Peace because the coalition is difficult to disci- Initiative. Under this, if Israel reaches an pline. Third, Israeli society’s frustration at agreement with the Palestinians on a two- the persistent failure of the Middle East state settlement, the majority of Arab states peace process is a significant factor. The will in return recognise the state of Israel. crucial criterion in Israeli politics continues However, Netanyahu reversed the order. In to be the politicians’ stance towards a con- a keynote address, he talked of peace nego- flict resolution. The Right benefits greatly tiations with the Arab states needing to from the present hopelessness because it come first. Only thereafter would he be has always been sceptical about the peace willing to negotiate with the Palestinians. process. And the opposition is currently not Netanyahu is thus trying to kill two birds in a position to submit credible proposals with one stone. First, he is linking Israel’s for resolving the conflict. Not that the coali- greater regional integration in security tion government would be able to make matters with the remote chance of its being any kind of final decision in regard to the recognised by the Arab states. Second, he is solution of the conflict: the right fringe trying to postpone indefinitely any attempt lacks the majority for annexing the settle- at solving the conflict with the Palestinians. ments, and there is currently no other solu- tion in sight. The approach that has long been Netanyahu’s therefore remains the Prospects and recommendations order of the day: conflict management. The Has Israel moved to the right? In the short- prime minister appears to have no political term at least, the answer is yes. The mod- vision outside of his security dogma. erate Israeli Right currently has less and This is a leverage point for European less influence on the nation’s politics, the policy, which is anxious about the peace populist right-wing more and more. This process and also wants to further substan- state of affairs can be seen in the way tive democracy in Israel. A firm endorse- ministers carry out their duties, in indi- ment of a Palestinian state remains the vidual laws, and above all in the efforts only option for settling the Middle East to define basic social norms according to conflict, not least because there are no ethnic or religious criteria. It is accompa- viable alternatives. The EU could be espe- nied by an attempt to curtail liberal-demo- cially active in the context of Netanyahu’s cratic principles, such as minority rights, attempted rapprochement with the Arab and to limit the room for manoeuvre states, which is intended to exclude the for any opposition within civil society. In Palestinians. In concert with those states, general, the Israeli government is visibly it needs to make it clear to the Israeli gov- distancing itself from a substantive under- ernment that it cannot abandon peace standing of democracy in its policies and talks with the Palestinians. moving closer to a pure majoritarian prin- At the same time, future peace negotia- ciple. The growing strength of the populist tions must also aim to guarantee Israel’s Right has a number of causes. First, Prime security – this continues to be Israelis’ main Minister Netanyahu needs to unite as many concern. A variety of measures are conceiv- right-wing voters as possible behind Likud, able, such as UN peacekeeping troops along

SWP Comments 45 October 2016

7 a future border, or a demilitarised . For despite Israel’s military dominance, there is a need to rebut the widely believed argument that it has been attacked after every withdrawal from ter- ritories controlled by Israel since the start of the peace process. Otherwise, a majority for reviving the peace process will never be found. Given these factors and given that Israeli politics is currently blocking itself, mainly through its coalition-building mechanisms, good counsel from outside Israel appears crucial. This way forward also offers the oppor-

© Stiftung Wissenschaft und tunity of consolidating democratic insti- Politik, 2016 tutions that have come under pressure. A All rights reserved commitment to liberal democratic values These Comments reflect and support for a two-state settlement are the author’s views. clearly not the same thing, but they are SWP linked. In Israel, the notion of a legitimate Stiftung Wissenschaft und Palestinian state is above all a liberal idea. Politik German Institute for With the stagnation of the Middle East peace International and process, the concept of a liberal democracy Security Affairs is losing ground domestically in favour of Ludwigkirchplatz 3­4 national-collectivist views of the state of 10719 Berlin Israel. A solid new peace process will be dif- Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 ficult to achieve with the Netanyahu gov- www.swp-berlin.org ernment, but it could bring renewed hope [email protected] if it is set in motion together with the ISSN 1861-1761 stable Arab states in the region, with Saudi Translation by Tom Genrich Arabia leading the way.

(English version of SWP-Aktuell 60/2016)

SWP Comments 45 October 2016

8