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18February 2021 India Daily INDIA DAILY February 18, 2021 India 17-Feb 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Sensex 51,704 (0.8) 5.4 17.6 Nifty 15,209 (0.7) 5.4 18.1 Contents Global/Regional indices Dow Jones 31,523 0.2 2.3 5.8 Special Reports Nasdaq Composite 14,048 (0.3) 8.1 18.1 Strategy FTSE 6,732 (0.3) (0.1) 5.8 Strategy: Day 2 takeaways from Chasing Growth 2021 Nikkei 30,292 (0.6) 6.2 16.4 Hang Seng 31,085 1.1 8.8 17.7 The second day of our meeting track picked momentum as the corporate KOSPI 3,134 (0.9) 1.5 23.4 line-up burgeoned with 42 companies from across India. Before the day Value traded – India ended, 533 institutional investors from 176 funds across India, Singapore, Cash (NSE+BSE) 818 842 428 Hong Kong and London and New York met 95 senior managers in more 14,65 Derivatives (NSE) 36,608 22,758 than 1,250 meetings. 5 Daily Alerts Deri. open interest 6,264 5,532 4,320 Results Schaeffler India: Automotive segment outperforms Forex/money market Change, basis points 4QCY20 EBITDA 21% above estimates 17-Feb 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Expect 16% revenue CAGR over CY2020-23E due to strong recovery in Rs/US$ 72.7 5 (53) (171) select segments 10yr govt bond, % 6.5 1 28 28 Net investment (US$ mn) Increase our CY2021-22E EPS estimates by 7-8%; maintain SELL on 16-Feb MTD CYTD expensive valuations FIIs 304 414 23,258 Results, Change in Reco MFs (154) 1,382 (7,038) Sunteck Realty: In the price Top movers Change, % ODC and Naigaon continue to remain mainstay for sales; no sales in BKC in Best performers 17-Feb 1-day 1-mo 3-mo past one year TTMT in Equity 330 0.3 26.8 109.0 Lower rating to REDUCE with revised FV of Rs345/share TTMT/A in Equity 132 (0.9) 29.9 90.8 Company alerts VEDL in Equity 193 1.4 9.8 79.6 BOB in Equity 84 5.6 12.0 77.1 Bharti Airtel: Renewed focus MSS in Equity 227 6.4 39.8 73.9 Bharti to buyback 20% stake in DTH business for cumulative consideration Worst performers of Rs31.3 bn PLNG in Equity 240 (1.0) (7.5) (4.4) BRIT in Equity 3,364 (0.8) (6.8) (4.2) Special Committee of Directors to renew focus on digital and non-telecom DRRD in Equity 4,601 (2.0) (11.7) (3.8) businesses BIOS in Equity 419 0.3 (8.4) (2.2) Calibrated approach in shaping up digital businesses to drive growth in the INDIGO in Equity 1,610 (0.0) (1.3) (2.0) medium term [email protected] Contact: +91 22 6218 6427 For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES. REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. INDIA Strategy FEBRUARY 18, 2021 NEW RELEASE BSE-30: 51,704 Day 2 takeaways from Chasing Growth 2021. The second day of our meeting track picked momentum as the corporate line-up burgeoned with 42 companies from across India. Before the day ended, 533 institutional investors from 176 funds across India, Singapore, Hong Kong and London and New York met 95 senior managers in more than 1,250 meetings. Day 2 – February 17 companies at KIE’s Chasing Growth conference 1. Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail 22. ITC 2. Alembic Pharma 23. J K Cement 3. Ashok Leyland 24. JSW Steel 4. Aurobindo Pharma 25. Lupin 5. BPCL 26. Mahindra & Mahindra Financial 6. Cipla 27. Mindspace REIT 7. City Union Bank 28. Muthoot Finance 8. Coforge 29 Oberoi Realty 9. Dabur India 30. Petronet LNG 10. Dalmia Bharat 31. Prestige Estates Projects 11. Embassy Office Parks REIT 32. SBI Cards 12. Federal Bank 33. SBI Life Insurance 13. Graphite India 34. SRF 14. Grasim Industries 35. Tata Chemicals 15. Gulf Oil Lubricants 36. Tata Communications 16. Havells India 37. Tata Power 17. HCL Technologies 38. Tech Mahindra 18. Hero Motocorp 39. Titan Company 19. ICICI Prudential Life 40. Torrent Pharmaceuticals 20. IndusInd Bank 41. Varun Beverages 21. Infosys 42. Zee Entertainment Enterprises Sanjeev Prasad [email protected] Contact: +91 22 6218 6427 For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. Strategy India ABFRL: FEBRUARY 17, 2021 Key takeaways ABFRL highlighted that it has taken measures (rights issue, Flipkart equity raise) to improve its net debt position, which is expected to reach Rs2.5 bn by March 2021 excluding the Sabyasachi transaction of ~Rs4 bn. 92% of sales through the retail channel were back and LTL recovered to -16% for Lifestyle brands in 3QFY21. Online sales from retail stores are also included in this 92% sales recovery. However, they only form a small part of overall sales. Brands business (LP, VH, PE, AS) have grown to Rs45 bn (FY2020) with 11-12% EBITDA margin over the years and the company expects 12% growth rate over the next five years. Strategy has always been to extend brands as per consumer preferences so launched club wear, loungewear, denims, casuals within the existing brands. Hence, it has been able to capture shifts through various product categories. Franchisee puts capital, fixtures, brings local knowledge but the company controls inventory as they have a better grip on consumer preferences. It has moved to shorter cycles which help capitalize on fast-changing trends. Lifestyle brands. A little less that 50% is work wear rest is other categories and so Covid impact was not harsh. Innerwear. Innerwear business’ profitability improved due to reduction in expenses, but investments in marketing and advertisement are expected to pick up going ahead. Current profitability is temporary and the business will continue to deepen its distribution. The company believes that 75-80% of the product portfolio for innerwear is already present with it but a range around lower price points also needs to be added to the existing lines to cater to the vast set of customers. International brands. They have shown tremendous growth for the past three years with every single store format being profitable. Young fashion. People brand was shut last year. F21 is a Rs1.6-2 bn business which was scaled down in past two years. Ethnicwear. The company has blockbuster brands in men’s formal and casualwear. But has limited presence in the largest category of ethnic wear (10% Men, 90% Women). It wants to complete the portfolio which already has Jaypore, S&N and Sabyasachi now under its umbrella. It has recently acquired 51% stake in Sabyasachi at attractive valuations. Sabyasachi had Rs2.7 bn of topline in FY2020, 20-25% EBITDA margins, RoCE of 40-50% and has generated FCF over the past 15 years. Flipkart investment. There is no favorable treatment from both company and Flipkart’s perspective. Flipkart has access to store inventory of 800 offline stores in Lifestyle brands and 150 stores in Pantaloons. ABFRL does not share any sales data other than the sales that happen through the platform. Value retail. Pantaloons sees opportunity to expand further in the top 30-40 cities itself. However, the company has expanded to 30 stores of Style-up in tier II/III locations over the past two years to learn about consumer behavior and merchandize. Focus areas. Innerwear and ethnic wear are key focus areas. Innerwear is a large market with significant part still unorganized. Jockey is in basic segment; positioning VH as aspirational, always price ~10% higher than Jockey. KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3 India Strategy ALEMBIC PHARMA: FEBRUARY 17, 2021 Key takeaways: View on US investments: While analysts and investors kept saying that US business no longer remains attractive from time to time, the company believes US always presents opportunities and it is up to players to capitalize on those, manage costs and maintain a nimble supply chain. Alembic does not want to compete aggressively on pricing and is ready to even give up shares in products where returns are too low (for instance sartans where the company gave away market share in 3Q). Injectables: Alembic’s US injectable facility got inspected recently as there was shortage of a product which has been filed from this site. Alembic is pursuing a basket approach to injectables as that provides better entry into GPO contracts and will be sourcing APIs from outside as most of the injectable APIs are available in the market. India business: After a period of weak growth, overall growth across products has recovered and from here on chronic will continue to grow faster than acute. Alembic’s India portfolio is also starting to get skewed towards chronic gradually. Rhizen JV and umbralisib: Unlike other companies which have massively spent in the specialty segment, with few companies failing and a few still sustaining, Alembic’s specialty through Rhizen was a very lean cost structure company (no fancy R&D center etc). Dr Swaroop (JV partner) drives this business. Alembic has not invested much in this JV and now Rhizen has become self funded (through royalties and milestones of umbralisib) and sees a sharp increase in revenue. 4 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH Strategy India ASHOK LEYLAND: FEBRUARY 17, 2021 Key takeaways Demand is coming back strongly. The company is optimistic about recovery prospects going into FY2022E led by (1) a rebound in economic activity aided by favorable government policy resulting in higher freight demand and (2) recovery in tipper and multi-axle truck segments due to strong construction segment demand.
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