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ABSTRACT the YOUNG AMERICAN VOTER Michael J. Pomante II, Ph.D

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ABSTRACT the YOUNG AMERICAN VOTER Michael J. Pomante II, Ph.D ABSTRACT THE YOUNG AMERICAN VOTER Michael J. Pomante II, Ph.D. Department of Political Science Northern Illinois University, 2016 Scot Schraufnagel, Director Since Converse’s work in 1971, political scientists have noted the abysmal level of participation by young Americans on Election Day. One possible reason for the negative comments by academics is their assumption that young people will react to socio-political and economic contexts in the same manner as other segments of the voting population. A second possible explanation for the negative reports is that not all relevant variables, which explain deviation in youth mobilization levels, have been uncovered. The research reported herein explores potential American voters between the ages of 18 to 24 with an eye toward uncovering unique explanations for their lower levels of mobilization and possible new variables that others have failed to consider. Specifically, the research demonstrates three ways in which younger voters are different from the voting population 25 years of age and older. For instance, it is widely recognized that economic hardship can influence democratic participation rates, this research uncovers evidence to suggest a traditional definition of unemployment is not the best measure for capturing the “economic hardship” of young Americans. With a new measure of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and the underemployed, I learn that the youngest age group is mobilized to vote. Older individuals, on the other hand, continue to associate with lower participation rates when economic hardship is higher. Second, the research uncovers the overall detrimental effects of state laws which raise the relative costs of voting. The research develops a wholly new Cost of Voting Index (COVI) to capture these effects. Surprisingly, it does not appear that the COVI places any additional burden on young Americans, but it is clear that everyone participates less when the costs of voting increase. Third, using a classic experimental research design, and in-depth analyses of a dozen real world elections, I uncover evidence in support of a previous unconsidered variable. Explicitly, I learn that the age of candidates running for public office is a sufficient condition to mobilize youth to cast a ballot on Election Day. NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY DEKALB, ILLINOIS MAY 2016 THE YOUNG AMERICAN VOTER BY MICHAEL J. POMANTE II ©2016 Michael J. Pomante II A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE Doctoral Director: Scot Schraufnagel ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I want to thank the individuals who volunteered their time, expertise, and resources in helping me complete this project. No one invested more time in me and my work, than my dissertation chair and mentor, Dr. Scot Schraufnagel. His knowledge, experience, and guidance were invaluable throughout this work. Without him, my success in this program would have been limited. Additionally, Dr. Quan Li helped tremendously in the creation of the COVI. His expertise in statistical methods were imperative to me learning the correct techniques for the construction of the index. Next, I want to thank Dr. April K. Clark. Even before she knew me and agreed to be a member of my committee, her feedback on my research proved valuable for both a publication and this dissertation. I also want to thank Dr. Mitch Pickerill for agreeing to sit on my committee. DEDICATION To my wife, Rebecca, without her support this degree would have been unobtainable TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES…………………………………………………………………..….…… vii LIST OF FIGURES………………………………………...………………………..….…… x LIST OF APPENDICES………………...…………………………………………..….…… xi Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION.………………….…………………………….……..……………….. 1 State Laws Regarding Registration and Voting.……………………………….……. 4 Incomplete Youth Mobilization.…………………………......………..….…..……... 7 Education and Media Effects on Youth Political Knowledge and Mobilization....…. 9 The Role of Family and Geography on Youth Mobilization……………….….…….. 11 The Life Cycle and Life Events: Effect on Voter Turnout……………………….…... 13 Change the Definition of Political Participation?……………………………..…........ 15 Defining Youth, Data Sources, and the Dissertation Outline……………………..…. 18 2. UNEMPLOYMENT: A MOTIVATING FACTOR TO CAST A BALLOT AMONG VOTING ELIGIBLE YOUTH?……………………………….………………………… 23 Previous Research on “Economic Voting”................................................................... 27 Testing for the Effects of Unemployment on Voter Turnout…….……………....….. 29 Testing a Different Measure of Unemployment…………………………...….……... 37 Conclusion………………………………………………………………....……….... 44 v Chapter Page 3. THE COST OF VOTING IN THE AMERICAN STATES: CREATING A COMPREHENSIVE INDEX……………………………………………………….…… 46 Previous Work on the Cost of Voting……………..………………………….……... 48 A Comprehensive Cost of Voting: Examining the Variables Included in the Index.…………………………………………………………………………….….... 50 Voter Registration Restrictions…………………….…………………..……. 51 Registration Drive Requirements……..……..…………………...………….. 54 Absentee Voting…………………………………………..…...…………….. 55 Identification Restrictions…………………….…………...………………… 56 Poll Hours………………………………………..……………………..……. 58 Constructing the Cost of Voting Index (COVI)……………..…………………..…... 59 Construct Validity Check…………………………..……………….……...………... 65 Using the COVI to Predict Aggregate Voter Turnout in the American States: 1996-2012….…..…………………………………………………….. 65 Using the Cost of Voting to Predict Individual Voter Turnout: 1996-2012…. 69 Examining the Effects of the Cost to Vote on Different Age Groups…..………….... 75 Conclusion………...………………………………………………...…………..…… 79 4. CANDIDATE AGE AND YOUTH VOTER TURNOUT: AN EXPERIMENT AND ANALYSIS OF PRESIDENTIAL, SENATORIAL, AND GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS……………………………………………...………………..…………….. 83 An Experimental Test of Youth’s Commitment of Vote and Candidate Age.......…... 85 An Examination of Real World Races…………………..……………...………….... 92 Presidential Elections…………………………………………………..……. 94 Midterm Elections……..……………………………….………...………….. 107 vi Chapter Page Conclusion……………………………………………………...………………...….. 113 5. A CULMINATION OF EFFECTS: A MORE COMPLETE ANALYSIS OF YOUTH VOTER TURNOUT ………………………………………….…………..……….…….. 116 Conclusion….…………………………..……………………...………………..…… 125 6. THE FUTURE OF THE YOUNG AMERICAN VOTER……………………………….. 127 Areas for Future Research………………………..……...…………………..………. 135 Automatic Voter Registration………………………....………………………..……. 137 Youth Voter Turnout in the 2016 Presidential Election……………………….….… 138 WORKS CITED………………………………………..………………………..…….……. 145 APPENDICES…………………………………………………………………...…….……. 160 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Overall Voter Turnout and Unemployment for Midterm and Presidential Elections: 1994-2012………………………….………..……………………….……...…………… 35 2. Voter Turnout and Unemployment by Age Group for Midterm and Presidential Elections: 1994-2012…….………………………...………………………………..…… 38 3. Comparison of the New Measure of Unemployment against the Traditional Measure of Unemployment on Overall Voter Turnout: 1994-2012…………………..……...…….… 40 4. A New Measure of Unemployment and Voter Turnout by Age Group in Midterm and Presidential Elections: 1994-2012…………………………………………………..…… 42 5. List of Variables Included in the Cost of Voting Index and ‘Allowances’……........…… 52 6. Multiple Correspondence Analysis Statistics: Principle Inertia (Cumulative percentage of explained variance)……...……...………………………………………...…………... 61 7. Descriptive Statistics of Sub-Indicators for the Final Index: Minimum Value/Maximum Value (Mean Value)….……...…………………………………………………………... 62 8. Cost of Voting Index Rank and Voter Turnout Rank by State: 2012……...………….… 64 9. The Cost of Voting and Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections: 1996-2012……...…… 68 10. Model Estimates and Model Summary for COVI and Individual Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections: 1996-2012………….…………………………….……………… 74 11. Pairwise Correlation between Voter Turnout of Different Age Groups and the Cost of Voting Index Values.………………………………………………….……………… 77 12. The Cost of Voting and Voter Turnout of Various Aggregate Age Groups in Presidential Elections from 1996-2012...……………………………...………………… 79 viii Table Page 13. Summary Data Youth Commitment to Vote Experiment………………..……...…….… 88 14. Bivariate Relationships between a Commitment to Vote and Different Groups……...… 89 15. Youth Commitment to Vote and Young Candidates: An Experiment…...................…… 92 16. Youth Voter Turnout and Candidate Age Difference in Presidential Elections: 1976- 2008……………………………………………………………………………..……….. 94 17. Newspaper Article Results and Search Terms for the 1992 Presidential Election .……... 97 18. Newspaper Article Results and Search Terms for the 2008 Presidential Election.…....… 100 19. Newspaper Article Results and Search Terms for the 1996 Presidential Election….…… 102 20. Newspaper Article Results and Search Terms for the 2000 Presidential Election….…… 104 21. Qualitative Summary of Presidential Elections Examined……………………………… 107 22. Youth Voter Turnout Compared to Other Ages and Previous Elections: Young Candidate Running……………………..……………………………...………………… 110 23. Youth Voter Turnout in Midterm Elections and Key Explanatory Variables from Previous Chapters……...……,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.… 122 A1. Voter Turnout and Different Unemployment Measures of 18 to 29 Year-olds in Midterm and Presidential Elections…..…………………………………...………..……
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