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POPGROUP User Group POPGROUP - user group meeting- Dr Peter Boden analytics John McCarthy edge POPGROUP User Group (Scotland) Ladywell House, Edinburgh January 2012 Slide 1 POPGROUP Presentation content - user group meeting- • Introduction • POPGROUP developments • User issues • Derived Forecast Module • Housing-led forecasts • Q & A Slide 2 POPGROUP Introduction - user group meeting- • Edge Analytics provides expertise in geographical modelling and research with a specialism in demographic forecasting and scenario planning • This expertise is based upon 20 years experience in the application of modelling methods to support investment, planning and policy development in the public and private sector, both in the UK and internationally • Edge Analytics is contracted by the Local Government Association (LGA) to support and develop POPGROUP ‐ a suite of demographic forecasting used by local planners across the UK Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 3 POPGROUP POPGROUP - Demographic Forecasting - user group meeting- Aberdeen City Cornwall Herefordshire North Ayrshire Salford City The Vale of Glamorgan Aberdeenshire Cumbria Highland North Yorkshire Leeds University Torfaen Argyll & Bute DenbighshireDenbighshire Kent Northamptonshire Sheffield U.S. Census Bureau Birmingham City Derbyshire Leeds City Northern Ireland Statistics & Shropshire University of Manchester Blackburn with Darwen Dorset Leicestershire Research Agency South Lanarkshire University of StrathclydeStrathclyde Blaenau Gwent Dudley Luton Northumberland Southern California University of West of Bournemouth East Sussex Marja‐aho Arkkitechdit Oy One North East Association of Governments England Bradford Fife Merseyside Information Oxfordshire South West Observatory Warwickshire Brighton & Hove Flintshire Service Pembrokeshire Staffordshire West Northamptonshire JPU Buckinghamshire General Register Office for Midlothian Pima Association of Stirling West Sussex Caerphilly Scotland Milton Keynes Governments Stoke on Trent Wiltshire Cardiff Glasgow & Clyde Valley Monmouthshire Poole Swindon Worcestershire Carmarthen Glasgow City Nathaniel Lichfield & PowysPowys . TamesideTameside Wrexham Ceredigion Gloucestershire Partners Renfrewshire Teeside Valley JSU Yorkshire & Humber Public Cheshire West & Chester Greater London AuthorityAuthority National University of Rochdale Telford & Wrekin Health Observatory City of Edinburgh Gwynedd Singapore Royal Borough of Windsor & The National Assembly for Conwy Hampshire Neath Port Talbot Maidenhead Wales edge analytics • Model development Key demographic issues • Configuration & calibration Population Growth Smaller households • Distribution Population ageing Ethnic change • Technical support Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 4 POPGROUP - user group meeting- POPGROUP Developments Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 5 POPGROUP Developments - user group meeting- • Derived Forecast model • Data Modules – Household projections – Limiting long-term illness – Disability • Excel 2007 compatibility • Excel 2010 compatibility • Consultation on PopGroup version 4 developments Slide 6 POPGROUP - user group meeting- User issues Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 7 POPGROUP The planning context - user group meeting- • A decade of change (2001-2007) – Housing boom – High mobility – EU expansion – Rising fertility • A decade of change (2008-2012) – Financial crisis – Economic recession – Low mobility – Housing development decline Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 8 POPGROUP The planning context - user group meeting- • A new administration • Decentralisation - localism • Demographic uncertainty – Fertility rise peaked? – Significantly reduced mobility – Reduction in EU migration – Points Based System – impact? • ONS revisions to MYE, new SNPP – new Census data still 2 years away • RSS targets now redundant • Robust and local demographic statistics are key to renewed planning efforts Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 9 POPGROUP Example 1 – scenario development - user group meeting- Change 2006‐2026 Average per year2 Scenario Population Households1 Net Dwellings Jobs Change % Change % Migration Employment ‐ Scenario A 110,990 35% 56,534 43% 2,912 3,052 3,403 High SNPP (WAG 2008‐based) 106,448 33% 55,193 42% 2,443 2,920 3,214 Employment ‐ Scenario B 93,458 29% 49,346 37% 2,061 2,617 2,688 Max CR 83,696 26% 45,242 34% 1,532 2,368 2,304 Medium Migration‐led recalibrated 79,365 25% 43,484 33% 1,330 2,261 2,133 Growth Employment ‐ Scenario C 73,974 23% 41,360 31% 1,112 2,133 1,893 SNPP (WAG 2006‐based) 61,174 19% 36,081 28% 600 1,860 1,602 Population Low 5yr CR 57,939 18% 34,677 26% 314 1,728 1,275 10yr CR 56,006 18% 33,885 26% 222 1,680 1,198 Natural Change 46,814 15% 33,069 25% 0 1,631 561 15yr CR 49,484 15% 31,211 24% ‐88 1,518 938 Trend‐led 1 Household totals for 2006‐2007 were supplied by Cardiff Council. 2 For consistency across all scenarios, the average per year is taken from 2009/10 ‐ 2025/26. Historical population statistics are Jobs‐led available to 2008/9 so no additional constraints are applied in these years. Trend scenarios begin in 2009/10 and dwelling and Dwelling‐led employment constraints apply from 2009/10. Slide 10 POPGROUP Example 2 – scenario development - user group meeting- 410,000 390,000 370,000 350,000 330,000 Population 310,000 290,000 270,000 250,000 SNPP Migration‐led ‐ R Net‐Nil Migration‐ R Draft Review RSS ‐ R Approved RSS ‐ R AMR Dwelling Trajectory ‐ R Economic ‐ R Change 2010 ‐ 2033 Average per year Population Population Households Households Scenario Net Migration Dwellings Jobs Change Change % Change Change % SNPP 75,315 24.5% 41,502 32.0% 2,499 1,855 1,250 Migration‐led ‐ R 56,885 18.5% 37,730 29.9% 2,135 1,688 934 Economic ‐ R 54,150 17.6% 36,735 29.1% 2,035 1,642 803 Draft Review RSS ‐ R 25,630 8.3% 25,134 19.9% 937 1,120 262 Approved RSS ‐ R 25,515 8.3% 25,086 19.9% 933 1,118 261 Net‐Nil Migration‐ R ‐2,384 ‐0.8% 8,976 7.1% 0 399 ‐581 AMR Dwelling Trajectory ‐ R ‐4,672 ‐1.5% 12,363 9.8% ‐301 550 ‐413 Slide 11 POPGROUP - user group meeting- Derived Forecast Module Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 12 POPGROUP Household Type - user group meeting- The GROS 2008-based household projections define 8 household types. The table below lists the full labels for each household type, which can be used within the Derived Forecast input and output files. Household Type 1.1 adult 2 + children 1.1 adult, 1 child 1.1 person female 1.1 person male 1.2 person all adult 1.2 + adult 1 + children 1. 3 + person all adult 1.Non‐heads Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 13 POPGROUP Derived Forecasts - method - user group meeting- Population Forecast Derived Category Rates Population forecast by age and sex Rates by age and sex (e.g. headship rates, disability rates) Derived Category Forecast Forecast for Derived Categories (e.g. Households, disability) D a,s,u,y,d,g = P a,s,u,y,g * R a,s,u,y,d,g / 100 D =Derived Category Forecast a = age-group s = sex P =Population ‘at risk’ Forecast u = Sub-population y = year R =Derived Category Rates d = derived category g = group (usually an area, but can be an ethnic group or social group) Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 14 POPGROUP DF Model - structure - user group meeting- Start DFSetup Make choices on model configuration DFSetup Run Setup to create‘skeleton ’ files Skeletons DFPop DFPopAdjust DFSubPop DFRates DFFactor DFCons DFScenario Population of skeleton files by user to create model‘input’ files Inputs: Population Inputs: Rates Inputs: Constraints DFPop DFPopAdjust DFSubPop DFRates DFFactor DFCons Configure Model scenario DFScenario.xls Run Model to produce output files Outputs DFForecastDetail_ID DFRatesOut_ID DFRiskPop_ID DFReporter_ID DFForecastTotal_ID Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 15 POPGROUP - user group meeting- Housing-led forecasts Jobs-led forecasts Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 16 POPGROUP POPGROUP & policy scenarios - user group meeting- - Not in households Population Households x Headship rates x Activity rates Revised migration vs. Housing supply Sharing,Vacancy rates, Second homes, Labour Housing land force vs. Jobs supply Unemployment, Commuting, Jobs creation Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 17 POPGROUP - user group meeting- Questions & Answers Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 18 POPGROUP - user group meeting- End Edge Analytics 2012 Slide 19.
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