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CQR Future of The Published by CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. www.cqresearcher.com future of the GOP Can Republicans gain more minority support? he immediate future appears promising for the Re - publican Party: It is in strong shape to reclaim the majority in the Senate in November, gaining control T of both chambers of Congress, and it commands many state governments. But political observers say the GOP should be concerned about the longer term, developing policies that can entice greater numbers of women, minorities and young people. Analysts also say the party must resolve its internal battles between the moderate Republican establishment and more conser - vative tea party wing. At the same time, nonpartisan scholars say, Rep. Rand Paul, R-Ky., a potential 2016 GOP Republicans must shed the identity they have acquired as the un - presidential candidate, has courted black voters in an attempt to expand the party’s appeal. He criticizes Republicans who support voting restrictions that compromising and confrontat ional “party of no.” The party’s grow - affect minority voters. At left is tea party advocate Rep. Michelle Bachmann, R-Minn., who ing conservative bent has driven away many independent voters, unsuccessfully sought the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. who are crucial to winning presidential elections. The 2016 contest for the white House is seen as critical in determining whether Re - I publicans can assemble a diverse coalition beyond their traditional THIS REPORT N base of older whites. THE ISSUES ....................891 S BACKGROUND ................897 I CHRONOLOGY ................899 D CURRENT SITUATION ........904 E CQ Researcher • Oct. 24, 2014 • www.cqresearcher.com AT ISSUE ........................905 Volume 24, Number 38 • Pages 889-912 OUTLOOK ......................906 RECIPIENT Of SOCIETY Of PROfESSIONAL JOURNALISTS AwARD fOR BIBLIOGRAPHY ................910 EXCELLENCE u AmERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION SILvER GAvEL AwARD THE NEXT STEP ..............911 fUTURE Of THE GOP Oct. 24, 2014 THE ISSUES SIDEBARS AND GRAPHICS Volume 24, Number 38 MANAGING EDITOR: Thomas J. Billitteri • will the tea party and other Republicans Expected to [email protected] 891 conservative groups take con - 892 Take Control of Senate Eight seats are expected to ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITORS: maryann trol of the GOP? Haggerty, [email protected], • Can Republicans shed their switch from Democratic to Republican on Nov. 4. Kathy Koch , [email protected], image as the “party of no”? Scott Rohrer, [email protected] • Can the GOP gain more support among minorities and Rise of Minorities Could SENIOR CONTRIBUTING EDITOR: 893 Hurt Republicans Thomas J. Colin young people? The share of white Ameri - [email protected] cans is projected to shrink CONTRIBUTING WRITERS: Brian Beary, to 43 percent by 2060. marcia Clemmitt, Sarah Glazer, Kenneth Jost, BACKGROUND Reed Karaim, Peter Katel , Robert Kiener, Mutual Dislike Grows Barbara mantel, Tom Price, Jennifer weeks Extremism “Is No Vice” 896 The share of party members 897 SENIOR PROJECT EDITOR: Olu B. Davis Today’s GOP grew out of who see the opposition as Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater’s “very unfavorable” has doubled. EDITORIAL ASSISTANT: Ethan mcLeod defeat in the 1964 presidential election. FACT CHECKERS: Eva P. Dasher, GOP Support for Tea michelle Harris, Nancie majkowski 898 Party Plummeted 898 Hardening Party Lines Support declined by one- The tea party has shifted the third in the past three and a GOP to the right. half years. 902 Tea Party Movement Chronology The tea party’s reputation 899 Key events since 1964. An Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. suffered after 2010. VICE PRESIDENT AND EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, Republicans Struggle to HIGHER EDUCATION GROUP: 900 Revitalize California Party michele Sordi CURRENT SITUATION “we are not the masters of our own destiny.” EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, ONLINE LIBRARY AND Congressional Contests REFERENCE PUBLISHING: 904 Todd Baldwin Republicans are expected to Ronald Reagan Remains regain control of the Senate. 902 GOP Icon Copyright © 2014 CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Pub - “Anybody who did those things lications, Inc. SAGE reserves all copyright and other State Races today would be pilloried.” 906 The outlook is uncertain for rights herein, unless pre vi ous ly spec i fied in writing. GOP governors. No part of this publication may be reproduced At Issue: electronically or otherwise, without prior written 905 Do tea party groups have Judicial Shifts permission. Un au tho rized re pro duc tion or trans mis - 906 too much influence over the sion of SAGE copy right ed material is a violation of The next president’s party GOP? could have a significant influ - federal law car ry ing civil fines of up to $100,000. ence on the Supreme Court. CQ Press is a registered trademark of Congressional FOR FURTHER RESEARCH Quarterly Inc. OUTLOOK CQ Researcher (ISSN 1056-2036) is printed on acid- For More Information free paper. Pub lished weekly, except: (march wk. 4) 909 Organizations to contact. Crucial Election (may wk. 4) (July wk. 1) (Aug. wks. 3, 4) (Nov. wk. 906 4) and (Dec. wks. 3, 4). Published by SAGE Publications, The 2016 presidential elec - Bibliography tion is critical to the future 910 Selected sources used. Inc., 2455 Teller Rd., Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Annual of the GOP. full-service subscriptions start at $1,077. for pricing, The Next Step call 1-800-818-7243. To purchase a CQ Researcher report 911 Additional articles . in print or electronic format (PDf), visit www.cqpress. com or call 866-427-7737. Single reports start at $15. Citing CQ Researcher Bulk purchase discounts and electronic-rights li - 911 Sample bibliography formats. censing are also available. Periodicals postage paid at Thousand Oaks, California, and at additional mailing offices . POST mAST ER: Send ad dress chang es to CQ Re search er , 2300 N St., N.w., Suite 800, wash ing ton, DC 20037. Cover: Getty Images/Alex Wong 890 CQ Researcher future of the GOP BY CHUCK MCCUTCHEON ’70s: radicalizing its image and THE ISSUES standing in the way of revi - talization,” said Andrew Kohut, xperts say the Repub - founding director and former licans are likely to re - president of the nonpartisan E gain the majority in Pew Research Center, who is the Senate in November, giv - now director of Pew’s Global ing them control of both Attitudes Project. 3 houses of Congress. But many conservatives say But conservative pundit the GOP has been too prone David frum is still worried. to compromise and that it He urges the GOP (for Grand hasn’t moved far enough to Old Party) to focus on the the right. “what it takes is future beyond the upcoming backbone, the willingness to midterm elections. stand and fight for [one’s] prin - A former speechwriter for ciples in the face of opposition President George w. Bush, and derision,” said Texas Sen. frum wrote in Foreign Affairs Ted Cruz, a potential 2016 about problems he felt were presidential candidate. 4 l i “weakening [the Republican p Kohut and other analysts u s Party’s] ability to win presi - a say the growing influence of p i D dential elections and gravely . anti-compromise Republicans D inhibiting its ability to govern / exemplifies how ideological s e effectively.” The party can g the GOP has become. Ac - a m overcome the obstacles, he I cording to a June Pew poll, y t said, but “the ominous ques - t the typical Republican voter e tion for Republicans is, how G today is more conservative much time will the overcom - Prominent Republicans such as Wisconsin Rep. Paul than 94 percent of Democrats, ing take?” 1 Ryan say the GOP has to revive the “big tent” concept compared with 70 percent 20 of welcoming both genders and all races. The party’s 5 frum is not the only po - 2012 vice presidential nominee and a possible 2016 years ago. litical analyst warning about presidential candidate, Ryan says, “We have to be The Pew study also found the Republicans’ long-term a party for everybody.” that Democrats have become health. To thrive in a more more ideological as well. But diverse country weary of polarizing with the rise of the tea party move - scholars Norman Ornstein of the Amer - rhetoric and government shutdowns, ment and its adherence to tax cuts ican Enterprise Institute and Thomas he and others argue, the party must and limited government, none of Pres - mann at the Brookings Institution think resolve battles between its establishment ident Obama’s most prominent legisla - tank blame washington’s political grid - and tea party wings and develop poli - tive initiatives has received more than lock squarely on the Republican Party. cies that attract more women, minorities a handful of GOP votes. In a stare- The GOP, they said, has become “con - and young people. meanwhile, they down with the president last fall, ardent temptuous of the inherited social and say, Republicans must shed their image House conservatives helped force a economic policy regime; scornful of as the uncompromising and confronta - federal government shutdown that was compromise; unpersuaded by conven - tional “party of no.” unpopular with the public. And tea tional understanding of facts, evidence The future of the GOP is important party Republicans have publicly called and science; and dismissive of the le - 2 to both Democrats and Republicans be - for Obama’s impeachment. gitimacy of its political opposition.” 6 cause the two-party system is at the “The outsize influence of hard-line Republicans say that critique over - root of American democracy. A healthy elements in the party base is doing to looks Democratic partisanship, citing party serves as a credible check on the the GOP what supporters of [presi - Obama’s refusal to embrace the 2011 opposition, promoting ideas and can - dential candidates] Gene mcCarthy and recommendations of the bipartisan didates different from the other party George mcGovern did to the Demo - Simpson-Bowles commission on reduc - in order to reach unaligned voters.
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