www.policy-network.net e: [email protected] +44(0)2073402211 f: t: +44(0)2073402200 United Kingdom London SW1P3QB 11 Tufton Street Third floor Policy Network policy network paper why its politicians must respond How the country is changing and future cosmopolitan Britain’s Jeremy Cliffe Contents

Introduction: More entangled and less attached 3 1. The Londonisation of Britain 4 2. The emerging cosmopolitan majority 11 3. Keep building those bridges 15 Conclusion: Lean in 19 paper policy network

Summary In the wake of Britain’s general election, its political parties are taking stock and looking to their futures. As they do so, they need to consider the megatrends convulsing and transforming the country at large. Its ethnic minority population is booming; its cities are sucking in ever-more people, jobs and investment; its university-educated population is growing fast; its links with the outside world are becoming closer and more numerous. This paper describes these and other trends that together point to a “cosmopolitan” future for the country. It discusses their impact on lifestyles, attitudes and party politics; drawing a series of conclusions about how politicians should adapt to them. It argues that, for all the challenges that they present, and the turbulence that the upcoming period of transition will entail, Britain’s cosmopolitan future is a bright one.

About the Author Jeremy Cliffe is the Economist’s UK politics correspondent and is due to become its “Bagehot” columnist in July. He studied at Oxford and Harvard universities. He also writes and presents BBC Radio 4 documentaries and produces occasional op-eds for the Guardian and the London Cover image credit: Moyan Brenn Evening Standard. https://www.flickr.com/photos/ aigle_dore/15571080188/in/ photostream/

2 | Britain’s cosmopolitan future: How the country is changing and why its politicians must respond | Jeremy Cliffe | May 2015 www.policy-network.net Introduction: More entangled and less attached

“The chief characteristic of the modern world is the scope and speech of change. It imposes on countries, corporations and people the need to adjust fast. The same is true of political parties. […] So not just in vision and attitude but in policy and programme, ask one question: does this really fit the way the world is changing?” – Tony Blair.1

Darkness falls. Upstairs in a suburban house a mixed-race young woman prepares for a night out, and

downstairs her mother peers out of the window. Outside a hoard of clubbers writhes and bounces, paper policy network neon-clad limbs thrusting electronic devices into the night air. Her daughter rushes outside to join them. They spin, whirl and photograph themselves to anthems of youth, rebellion and the city; from the Rolling Stones to David Bowie, from Soul II Soul to Blur. Text and social-media messages whizz through the ether. Dizzie Rascal, the hip-house voice of 2000s London, bestrides the heaving mass outside singing his best-known song. “Some people think I’m bonkers / But I just think I’m free / Man, I’m just livin’ my life / There’s nothin’ crazy about me.”

The picture is one of a young, urban, multi-coloured, technological, consumerist, permissive Britain at ease with itself and in the modern world. The year is 2012. The event: the opening ceremony of the London Olympics. Designed by the cineaste Danny Boyle, the spectacle may be best-known for its account of Britain’s story to date, encompassing Shakespeare, the Industrial Revolution and the first world war. But its most incisive and resonant part is perhaps this latter segment: a vision of the country in all its contemporary modernity. Jonathan Freedland of the Guardian called this “a shorthand for a new kind of patriotism that does not lament a vanished Britain but loves the country that has changed”.

The ceremony embodied not just the country that has changed but the one that is still changing; the one in which people are becoming more relaxed in a churning world of difference and diversity, less rooted (perhaps even less sentimental), simultaneously more at home in the mass and more truly themselves; or, as the philosopher Michael Sandel puts it: “more entangled, but less attached”.2 The Britons it describes are indeed slipping their institutional, ethnic, geographical and social moorings. This change expresses itself in a number of trends: the growing comfortableness in an ethnically diverse society, the live-and-let-live attitudes of young Britons, the new self-confidence and swagger about Britain’s cities. Some disparage these with the term “metropolitan”. Others go with “liberal” or even “libertarian”. But no word quite captures the sum of the changes convulsing and deracinating the country as neatly as “cosmopolitan”.

These developments are more relevant today than ever before. As they emerge from the election the two main political parties are looking to the horizon. Labour now faces a fight on three fronts: against the Scottish National party (SNP) in Scotland, against the United Kingdom Independence party (Ukip) in parts of the north and against the Conservative party in swathes of England and Wales that it tried and failed to win (and in some cases even lost). The Conservatives, though delighted at their unexpected win, risk years of acrimony over Europe, and have a majority narrow enough to put David Cameron at the mercy of his most right-wing, isolationist and socially conservative MPs. 1. Cited in Philip Gould, The Unfinished Revolution: How New Despite its win, the party remains relatively weak in the fastest-growing bits of Britain: London and Labour Changed British Politics Forever, Abacus, 2011, pxiii the northern cities. As they size up their tasks, both parties would benefit from a sense of how the 2. Michael Sandel, ‘The procedural republic and the country is evolving; of its cosmopolitan future. unencumbered self’, Political Theory, February 1984, pp81-96, https://www.theihs.org/sites/ default/files/wysiwyg_images/ Seminars_and_Workshops/ Summer_Seminars/Travel_PDFs/ Sandel,%20Michael%20 ’The%20Procedural%20 Republic%20and%20the%20 Unencumbered%20Self’.pdf

3 | Britain’s cosmopolitan future: How the country is changing and why its politicians must respond | Jeremy Cliffe | May 2015 www.policy-network.net to come.” Revolt of authors the on Right. Ford Goodwin, –Rob Matthew and and culturally diverse, more white-collar and more cosmopolitan, and this will only accelerate in the years ethnically more becoming is Britain generation. past the of changes social great the of one is – outlook liberal more and security relativefinancial degrees, university its with class– middle new the of rise “The 1. The Londonisation ofBritain thatinsights, is to author, down the matter. his not choice subject of applicable internationally some contain not does it If create. changes such that chances and risks political the and – flux attitudinal and demographic is accountan rapid infollowing nation a of The industrial service economy may be of more relevance to readers from other Anglo-Saxon economies. and trends, population what they inmean for an politics, increasingly discussing diverse country. cities about The points and the post- paragraphs the in resonance of points find may particular, in readers, European northern Other well. as countries western other to apply many examples, and concentrate of thisonBritish the arguments paper circumstances although firmly Second, England. in decided be will government British next the lead Labour or Conservatives the whether whole, a as Britain for implications big has surge this Moreover,though analysis. dedicated own its requires as border well as south of it, the rise stratospheric of the SNP there is that a phenomenon distinctive While the and demographic attitudinal changes in described the following pages apply of north the Two finalnotes. First, thispaper does not set out tosay much about recentpolitical shifts inScotland. it. dissect even them to help perhaps and is happening, to seek I that this (and change others) paper understand mainparties who many the inboth individuals embolden this in all, of Most segments. growing other, of exclusion the at electorate the of segments declining to themselves attached who parties and individuals of tombstones the with littered all, after is, careers political of graveyard The irrelevance. to parties their condemning risk out to warn who those thinkin they parties can still play from the thatsong 20th sheet century they set does account this But gradually. and way, own her or his in changes country’s the to respond might some what embrace suddenly politicians will future). all Each the resembles vision that much (however Britain of that vision hyper-liberal a consider insist to not is paper this of point The imperatives. light in the these of parties main the of each for recommendations some out set I conclusion, Finally,the in them. to hostile or are, by and large, good for the country without alienating or abandoning those who feel shut out by that changes embracing of challenge the at looks three part Ukip’sSo rise. explains This pace.even an at future that towards moving not is country the future, Britain’s is cosmopolitanism Although society. multi-ethnic plural, country’s the with comfortable and liberal socially world, the to open relatively one: cosmopolitan a is government of party majority-winning big, a as future only the why, politics: short, British in on havingare that these effect the describe I two to contributing this part In change. thataretogether developments social and economic various the enumerate I one part In paper. this for specifically a in and ones additional and Guardian, pieces, these for the conducted I that and interviews on draws Standard It programme. Evening4 Radio the Economist, the in least, at part in expressed, the result) election have the I which of of some year, context past the over the development this in about gathered (andhave I that place arguments one in out set to paper this written have I

4 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 3

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policy network paper Migration Observatory at Oxford University, Britain will be majority non-white. majority be will University, Britain at Oxford Observatory Migration have a roughly 40 per cent-minority population. cent-minority per 40 roughly a have will countries both outright; America as diverse as be will it Webber, Richard and TrevorPhilips to United States. around By 2025 asis as will about diverse now.be America Britain according 2040, By of the total, as isconvergingpopulation, a actually proportion with minority its that of the diversity: of levels American towards heading Europe in country only the is Britain that growth this of pace and white Britons will become much more mixed. This trend has two engines. has two trend This mixed. muchmore white Britonsbecome and will reasons discussed in (for part two) hasbut particularly important political implications, is well-known that ethnic less minority Britons perhaps is that one years, coming the of development Another places more in Diversity decade over past growth cent allpopulation of per accounted 80 groups for BME whole. a as Britons than children more have and younger are Britons non-white average, On diversity More in turn: each briefly The Londonisation of Britain involves a number of overlapping social trends and it is worth examining the in suggest Ukip, unusual. increasingly above quote, such are places in fact of rise the on study definitive the on authors the Goodwin, and Ford as But where Thanet programme Meet the Ukipers) people reject “the existing parties and their attitude”. South London-centric and Clacton BBC the like on activists Thanet party’s the places of one (toquote where and Ukip vote to inclined are about voters (rightly) written been has much Recently them. about adash atLondon of least with places –in short, are internationallyand minded university to been have residents many where eyebrows, raising without hand-in-hand street the down walk can couples same-sex where common, are faces non-white where metropolitan, even urban, as described be thatcould somewhere hit isever-more will it thatyoulikely and country the of map a widely.in Stick pin more a hold taking are characteristics London-like these of various But London-ish it). (placeswithout “UnLondon” and a outlook) with places is, (that “London” between that is today country the in divide defining the that 39”) the of 34 county on was I (“when concluded Engel, Matthew writer, Times Financial the England, in county every toured Having example. for Cambridge, and Leeds Manchester, like outposts metropolitan in country: the of parts other in present already is liberalism economic and cultural both and diversity youth, of mixture distinctive Its nonetheless. blurring isgradually Britain of rest the and it between distinction The be. always will and Britain in unique course, of is, London to thiscountry”. affinity “do astrong that many feel not Londoners in December an interviewer door,telling the of out foot one has already city the that suggested even Farageashas Nigel London. Known Formerly Country The called programme 4 Radio a in fantasy that of version gloomier a entertained Guardian, the of Chakrabortty, state, Aditya city England. Little own of its conservatism the be from free to capital the for called tongue-in-cheek, somewhat only Times, Financial the of Stephens Philip year Last London. of separateness growing the commentary: economic and political of trope favourite a with collides it as curious, is Britain of cosmopolitanism growing The nine per cent of the population in 2001in 14to 2011,population centin the cent of per per nine census). accordingthe to

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policy network paper f rts Ftr, h pit ot ht atog te rda sraigot ok qie lw [for slow, quite looks reasons] muchfaster.” to get demographic is it about spreading-out gradual the “although that out points who Future, British of that this group grew more than any other over the preceding decade, doubling to around 1.2 million. Atlantic). 2011the across is The it than here faster growing census actually showed is population race race Britons. Again following in America’s footsteps, Britain is truly becoming a melting pot (the mixed- The second engine of an increasingly mixed population is the remarkable rise in the number of mixed- thanks to the age of structure existing ethnic Britons. minority Rees adds that these trends would occur “even if you closed our national borders” to new immigrants, Britons to 2051: minority ethnic for trends projecting index” “diversity a produced has who demographers, leading country’s the of according of tothis Philip one great the spreading-out, start Rees, hasAnd Britain experienced only writes: across country, isthe trend occurring This Hamnett “suburbanisation” was pronounced particularly among Asian Britons, noted who Hamnett, also observes: This Merton. Croydonand leafy but Birmingham, or Tower Newham diverse traditionally Hamlets, in not There’s a process of suburbanisation.” The increases biggest in the ethnic pupil werepopulation minority areas. small in ghettoised or trapped being minorities at “We’relooking centres: not city to confined not was this which to extent the by struck was London College Kings of Hamnett Chris 2009, in cent 17 per to 1999 in cent 11.5 study per from pupils, a school In minority ethnic suburbs. of and proportion the towns in rise cities, the documenting smaller into and areas these of their out and spreading immigrants are but descendants Birmingham), and Manchester London, cent of per (those 50 over conurbations just three moment in the At are cities. inner the of out minorities ethnic of move the is first The population, it is also leading its spread out of the cities. As the Economist noted last year: year: last Economist noted the As cities. the of out spread its is it also leading population, and the radio presenter Jameela Jamil. And just as it is spearheading the growth in the ethnic minority Hamilton, Lewis driver racing the Malik, Zayn singer the herself, athlete celebrated the including life, As British Future notes, there are many prominent examples of this “Jessica Ennis generation” in public

6 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 Edgbaston, Moseley and Harborne.” and Moseley Edgbaston, of suburbs white middle-class largely the in mixed common too, especially are Birmingham, children white Within and Asian capital. the in working while or university at met have may five yearsold wereAsianmixed andwhite in 2011 –more than in most ofTheirparents London. […] In Chiltern, an affluentcommuter district inBuckinghamshire, five per cent of children under “Their [mixed couples’] children are quietly transforming Britain’s suburbs and commuter towns. other districts.” other so ethnic minorities are to a certain extent moving away from their areas of concentration into now, populations small have that those are change most the experience will that places The roll it toforward 2051 about half of the local authorities in the country move into that class […] you when Bradford, like and cities Leicester big other some and conurbations bigger the and “If you use the index diversity and you colour a map and all the high value areas are in London minorities typically still doubled or trebled from 1-3 cent from in adecade.” per cent trebled or to per 4-5 doubled still typically minorities ethnic of concentrations the areas, these in even percentage Yet low. the very is where pupils country minority ethnic the of of areas rural more typically and large still are “there is, trend a economically.” and socially both whole, as a the for country beneficial I believe, Such opportunities. employment and ownership, aspiration, home of and attainment levels diffusion, educational greater display and that dispersal areas suburban outward affluent towards more is into often trend clear the country whole the “Across 11 15

13 12 His view is echoed by Sunder Katwala 9 10 14

neighbourhoodsand-perplexing mixed-race-britain-changing- britain/21595908-rapid-rise- www.economist.com/news/ Economist, 8/2/2014,http:// 15. ‘Into themeltingpot’, The pot-generation.pdf uploads/2012/12/The-melting- britishfuture.org/wp-content/ December 2012,http://www. Relaxed OnRace, Future, British MoreHow Became Britain The Pot Melting Generation: andBinitaMehta, Sunder Katwala Ford,14. Rob Jolley, Rachael Katwala withSunder 13. Author interview 12. Cliffe and Proctor, 2015 11. Cliffe and Proctor, 2015 10. Hamnett, 2011 monoculture david-starkey-britain-white- commentisfree/2011/nov/23/ www.theguardian.com/ Guardian, 23/11/2011,http:// a white monoculture’, The iswrongStarkey to call Britain Hamnett, 9. Chris ‘David www.policy-network.net

policy network paper competitive clusters, which mean more jobs, which mean yet bigger cities. yet bigger mean which jobs, more mean which clusters, competitive auatrn, i cte ae hr te ok n opruiis are. opportunities and work the where are cities big manufacturing, niche and industries creative services, business like things in specialises that country a in because, in cent. growing cities that sevenis Population per in region growth outpacing areasother Humber 2011Yorkshire/ overall2021, between the 11.8and cent grow with will per Leeds Likewise,whole). a as region north-west the for cent per 4.2 just 2011 with (compared and 2001 between cent per to It hit is10 expected million by the 2030s. Likewise, the ONS records that grew Manchester by 18.9 of revised).this Around the year,start next London’s 1939crossed its population of million. peak 8.6 are boundaries constituency parliamentary when reflected be to bound development (a whole a as population the than faster expanding are which also themselves, cities are these of economy growth the service driving cluster-based new this of emergence the propelling trends same The service urban post-manufacturing of nexus values. social university-influenced liberal, and industries the about theory Judis-Teixeira the to conform to seem certainly jobs, office plentiful and outlook cosmopolitan their with cities, British but politics, will be that the bigger a city is, the more liberal it will be when taken as taken awhole.” when be will it liberal more is,the cities acity that bigger the be will which in links global and diversity the specialise). Freddie of to Sawyers YouGov, quoted bypoints out McDermott, that: general pattern “The exposed be to likely (and views cosmopolitan hold to likely share larger a means broadly cities big the in living population the of share larger A class.” working white the values and liberal concerns socially Their including of with the life the population, permeate quality society. post-industrial of live according who ethics to professionals the new bythe [...]peopled are of the university graduates who dominate their economies: new “These post-industrial metropolises 2008). pointed out They that the new urban areaspost-industrial characteristics the exhibit political 2004 book that predicted many of the trends that would sweep Barack Obama to the White House in a trend byfirstJohnobserved Judis andRuy Teixeira, authorsof The Majority DemocratEmerging (a This sharpening of the big cities’ identities live-and-let-live appears to be the British manifestation of notes: McDermott As EU the immigration. legislation, and cannabis marriage, gay and on keener utilities liberal: socially more nationalised also are both about But Briton. sceptical average the than more railways are Mancunians and Londoners both inclined, (especially conurbations Labour- though whole: a as country the than Britain’sliberal economically more are places suchthat shown in are areashas poorly Times Financial urban the of McDermott large John data, YouGov Using because performed cosmopolitan. is disproportionately That areas. broadly peripheral more has country’s the to Ukip relative London), that telling is It cities of Growth that: concluded article same The

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16 20.Cited in McDermott, 2015 20.Cited inMcDermott, and-migration---north-west.html migration---2013/population- country-profiles/population-and- rel/regional-trends/region-and- http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/ for National Statistics, 2013 and Migration -North West, Office 19. Regional Profiles: Population 802-people-in-cities-numbers.pdf attachment_data/file/321814/14- uploads/system/uploads/ www.gov.uk/government/ Science,Office for 2014, https:// Cities: The Numbers, Government 18. Tony Champion,People In Majority, Scribner, 2004,p8 The Emerging Democratic 17. JohnJudisandRuy Teixeira, englands-liberal-cities/ off-message/2015/01/27/ 27/01/2015, http://blogs.ft.com/ liberal cities’, Financial Times, 16. JohnMcDermott, ‘England’s www.policy-network.net

policy network paper twice twice as likely to be university educated (they are also twice as likely to be about from an are ethnic minority). and capital cultural more have but pots, savings smaller and wealth housing less much have They sector. low-paid largest the workers)as factory electricians, drivers, (lorry class” working “traditional the overtaken have workers) centre call carers, staff, (bar workers” service “emergent between the that example, distinguishing for found, It capital. measure) worldliness economic of and (a by sort capital cultural categories class new the devised Survey Class British Great the Thus such factors as level of place education, of residence (urban or rural), as well of as employment. type views and at the other are authoritarian ones. Where an individual stands on this depends on cultural other [libertarian/authoritarian] issues have in a sense become more important to people.” important issues more have [libertarian/authoritarian] other become in asense these people, to important less become have issues those […]as And important. less become they’ve income and their classsocial and things like of thattheir voteare still predictors quitechoices, but good when time a at happening is cultural this outlook is becoming a of more definingpart of people’sall political identity. As Tilley And puts it: “People’s population. the and economy the of sectors growing in class” bear that cultural characteristics we might consider “middle class”. groups These are concentrated “working considered have scale)been traditionally would economic that(measured purely groups a on Britain, of that like economy service post-industrial hollowed-out, a in That us? tell this all does What University. Oxford of Tilley James says one, right left- old the across cuts divide that emerged has axis new,second a ideological narrowed, has right and the left between As status. cultural from status economic of detachment a represents This 39just cent describing of population. per the class”) working class” “traditional and working class divide has become a seven-way split, with the traditional categories (“established middle Great British Class the Survey commissioned, to and partly According run, by the system. BBC in class 2013, old the Britain’s old upper-middle- fragmented have automation) and digitisation by propelled those (particularly activity economic of forms new of rise the and industry heavy of decline the But was politics decades, a materialisticpostwar bargaining these process two monolithic blocs. between (and people who hold them) is tied to the decline in the traditional white collar-blue collar divide. In the the As Judis-Teixeira argument “post-industrial about the rise areas” of values suggests, cosmopolitan system class the of Fragmentation London.” of that is muchapart living so cosmopolitan and diverse of kind the is an engine that economic living side-by-side for provides enough all […] It and encourages fosters communities of group different a or community a of the wheels the from oils “what emanating adds: he metropolises, prosperity of corridors the along travel values Cosmopolitan city].” big [of values the liberal the values, of kinds different with place of kind so different a out, of spreads notion city some a does of notion that “as says, he whole, the On peripheries. cities’ their big into out spreading values ones, political centrifugal as act forces economic centripetal these growth, According to Mike Emmerich, a former senior Downing Street adviser and policy on an urban expert as cities well). regional of of and is this,Croydon examples are true London of but the pattern good the same outside outskirts (Reading dormitories become suburbs and towns self-sufficient economically the once in, of sucked are focus the jobs become As areas. surrounding increasingly on pull gravitational they greater a As exert they regions, their effect. of life economic secondary a has cities the of growth The Metropolitanisation of the mix, each combining certain middle-class with certain working-class characteristics. working-class certain with middle-class eachcombiningcertain mix, the of the “technical middle class”, “new affluentworkers” and workers”service ‘“emergent are now also part

8 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 23 On one end of this new spectrum are libertarian libertarian are spectrum new this of end one On 21 22 New groups likegroups New 25 24

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policy network paper having “outgrown crude collectivism and left it behind in the supermarket car park”. car supermarket in the behind it left and having “outgrown collectivism crude as voters working-class describing Revolution, Unfinished The book his bible, modernisers’ Labour the in point similar a makes Gould Philip afternoons.” weekend on gastropubs middling and parks car Ikea in but Corner, Speakers’ in reside not does nation the of […] soul unimpressed. The ironic, cynical, is It post-modernity. into decades is It evolved. extraordinarily is Britain standards, western next the byin “Even it: movement puts Times Financial union the of Ganesh trade Janan YouTube As Facebook. years),entiresport, and few the of that overtake to track on is rate, current the at membership, (whose Trust National the like organisations membership volunteering, television, pub, the shopping, diversions: take-it-or-leave-it with institutions totalising old, the replaced have trends These are more in pronounced Britain than elsewhere and show sign little of abating. Britons far. terribly ever gets agenda” to “Britishness politicians upthe whip gimmick-seeking 3-million-strong Conservative 3-million-strong party). once the of members than Jedis registered (theremore now are period centsame over the per one and relatively easy-going about heterodox lifestyles. lifestyles. heterodox about easy-going relatively and one in 10 said they would fly the national flag in their garden. their in flag national the fly would they said 10 in one only and day George’s St of date the knew people English of third a 2010 only in that found survey a nationhood: and nation about things, of scheme grand the in relaxed, strikingly also are Britons their feet”. their beneath “changing it) puts Economist the (as is society – example for neutrality”, of veil the under the of of family the “cloakedgovernment thatneglect SmithLabour warning last vision the – Iain Duncan family static provincial, a brandish still politicians Though marriage. gay and partnerships the labour-market waning patterns, norms power and of changes legal marital likeand lifestyle civil changing by driven household; nuclear traditional, the of decline the story: bigger a of part is This to 1million 7.1increasing by about rose; country in 2011, million the of according to census data. rest the in that there), prices house skyrocketing of product a 2011 (possibly and 2001 between flat remained London in families such of proportion the whereas But all. or at not life, in later children have and down settle to choosing professionals) female particularly (and professionals of partly more least at housed product a long country, the has of parts capital other than The households” “singleton mores. metropolitan London’s on converging is whole a as country the too, Here, refrain. conservative socially that of part “family” the on pausing worth is It family post-nuclear The “family,flag”. of and dose faith paternalistic a for clamouring are Britons ordinary that claims of mockery a makes also today. It Britain in life of side attached” of Sandel’s “more entangled, but less formulation attached” is such an apt description “less why the toexplain helps and people consumerist individualistic, peculiarly a thisAll makesfor since 1980. halved has membership union Trade decline. in are kinds all of collectivisms west, wider the in as Britain, In phenomenon. isolated an been not has blocs class monolithic big, the of break-up The institutions monolithic of decline The of people declaring themselves todeclaring adherents of “nopeople religion” rose from 14.8 centper to 25.2 cent.per

9 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 32 26 All this contributes to a future Britain that looks more like London today: multifarious multifarious today: London like more looks that Britain future a to contributes this All Membership of political hasparties fallen from 3.8 per cent of the population to around 27 Between 2001Between and 2011, according to the census, the number 29 None of the periodic attempts by attempts periodic the of None 31 30 28

three-distinct-models-associated traditional-family-there-are-now- britain/21573548-forget- www.economist.com/news/ Economist, 16/03/2013,http:// 32. post-nuclear age’,‘The The wales-2001-11.html composition-in-england-and- households-and-household- england-and-wales-2001-2011/ and-household-composition-in- census-analysis/households- ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011- Statistics, May 2014,http://www. Wales 2001-11,Office for National Composition inEnglandand 31. HouseholdsandHousehold 30. Gould, 2011,p4 patriotic-country.html uknews/7608125/England-least- www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ Telegraph, 19/04/2010,http:// patriotic”“least country’, Daily Collins,29. Nick ‘England religion.html in-england-and-wales/sty- key-statistics-for-local-authorities- uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census/ 04/04/2013, http://www.ons.gov. Office for National Statistics, increased inEnglandand Wales’, population withnoreligion has 28. percentage ofthe ‘The uk-political-parties papers/SN05125/membership-of- publications/research/briefing- www.parliament.uk/business/ Note, 301/01/2015,http:// Standardof Commons Library of UKpoliticalparties’, House 27. RichardKeen, ‘Membership business-19521535 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ 1980’, BBCNews, 07/09/2012, membership hashalved since 26. JohnMoylan, ‘Union www.policy-network.net

policy network paper than even the capital (with big investments from the likes of Deutsche Bank and Jaguar Land Rover). one per cent of babies born in Britain in 2011 in Britain born cent babies of per parent. one foreign-born one at had least the the recession, it is once more rising fast: to 238 million in 2014. was up 112from through Britain’s airports million in 1993 to 240 million in 2007. it fell during Though passing passengers of busier. number becoming are hubsThe grow, world transport wider to the its moderate, pro-immigration often as well – all these kind of things.” of kind as well –all these often pro-immigration moderate, economically pro-EU, internationalist, liberal, socially … […] So associated. university more much It’s a education. huge increase university and that means the values thatare these younger cohorts, a with it of end the at up end will that cent per 40-45 like more it’s university, this through coming cohort, current The educated. after university being immediately cent 5-10 per at decade looking were the you war, second in the born were who people pensions, their drawing now are [that] 10,000 took Erasmus programme places at European universities in 2007, but 15,000 did in 2012.in did 15,0002007, in but universities European at places programme Erasmus took 10,000 increasing numbers of young Britons are considering are Britons young of numbers increasing airports, Heathrow and Gatwick, both posted record passenger numbers in 2014. numbers passenger record posted both Heathrow Gatwick, and airports, of their parents’ generation. parents’ their of of by10, age the abroad gone had ratethe truth: 63twice cent of children per the of boomers baby airline has thanmore a of ring low-cost by the the about eponymous term put “generation easyJet” slogan, marketing a Though more. abroad going are generally more people young seems it And constituency. year every by almost about 50,000, toequivalent the voting of parliamentary population the typical grew institution education higher a at degree first a for enrolling students of number the example, 2007, from for half-decade the In last. the than education higher undertaken have to likely more is even than the country’s growing – diversity is the rise of education. Each university of cohort Britons But perhaps the single biggest behind Britain’sfactor growing cosmopolitanism – greater, arguably, graduates the of march The 11 rose London centyear-on-year per outside England in projects destination, main the remained London Though began. records since the past three decades). In 2013-14 it hosted the largest number of foreign investmentdirect projects than any (withother European country the inflowratefastergrowing than formostof therich-world investment foreign much more economy.is of the also true attracts pattern Britain outwards-in That capital. the beyond place taken mostly hasEU, the of parts other from arrivals new by (from in 11 one residents of foreign-born to number the in eight in one 2012), in 2004 in driven increase largely dramatic The too. London outside Britain on impinging increasingly is world the And 2006. in 15 to 1990 five in than four more from serving rose Manchester destinations and international Birmingham London, outside airports of number The countries. other the with connections throughout direct spreading new establishing are are cities Regional links large. at international population of breadth and depth new the that suggests evidence much But city. global leading world’s the as emergence London’s reflects this all Partly, 2010 rising toand again 58m in 2013, is year which data last available).the for in 55m to (falling 2006 in 70m 1993to 37min from doubled roughly pleasure) for and business for (including residents UK by abroad trips of number the Statistics, National for AccordingOffice the to Increasing numbers of Britons are experiencing contact with the world outside their country’s borders. links global More residents between residents 1995 between foreign-born and 2013in (up increase by 50 percentage per cent, compared with lowest 90 per cent the nationally). saw London inner Observatory, Migration the to

10 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 45 Ford cites this as a crucial driver of attitudinal change: “If you look at the cohorts cohorts the at look you “If change: attitudinal of driver crucial a as this cites Ford 39 43 and Greater Birmingham saw a greater increase (57 increase cent)greater a saw per Birmingham Greater and 37 and opting to study at foreign universities: universities: foreign at study to opting and 34 The country’s two main international 46 36 hr i as eiec that evidence also is There 33 As the country’s links links country’s the As 35 42 40 According 41 Thirty- 44 38

46. Cliffe and Proctor, 2015 UKHigherEducation2013.pdf PatternsAndTrendsin Documents/2013/ ac.uk/highereducation/ http://www.universitiesuk. 2013, 2013, Universities UK, Education in UKHigher 45. Patterns and Trends investment-surge/ birmingham-leads-uk-foreign- midlands/119926-greater- www.insidermedia.com/insider/ 25/07/2014,http:// Media, Insider UK foreign investment surge’, 44. ‘Greater leads Birmingham report-2013-2014--2 ukti-inward-investment- investment-report-2013-2014/ publications/ukti-inward- www.gov.uk/government/ Investment, July2014,https:// 2013-14,UK Report Trade & Inward Investment43. UKTI foreign-born-parent.html children-born-in-England-has- uknews/10029547/Third-of- www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ Telegraph, 01/05/2013,http:// foreign-born parent’, Daily children inEnglandhas born Hall,42. Melanie of ‘Third in%20the%20UK-Overview_0.pdf sites/files/migobs/Migrants%20 migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/ December 2014,http://www. Migration Observatory, An Overview, the UK: The Vargas-Silva, Migrants in 41. CinziaandCarlos Rienzo birth.html sty-population-by-country-of- birth-and-nationality/2012/ population-by-country-of- gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/ 29/08/2013, http://www.ons. Office for National Statistics, UK population were abroad’, born 40. ‘1 in8oftheusuallyresident by-younger-brits.html highlights-increase-in-air-travel- www.adsadvance.co.uk/easyjet- Advance, 24/10/2013,http:// in airtravel by younger Brits’, 39. ‘Easyjet highlights increase 2014.pdf the%20road%20carbonell%20 default/files/Further%20up%20 go.international.ac.uk/sites/ November 2014,http:// International, Go in theUK, for Outward Student Mobility Six Up theRoad: Years ofGrowth 38. Joan-Anton Carbonell, Further fees-british-students-abroad education/2014/apr/24/tuition- http://www.theguardian.com/ The Guardian, 24/04/2014, students to study abroad’, fees encourage British 37. RichardAdams, ‘Tuition CAP775ExecutiveSummary.pdf www.caa.co.uk/docs/589/ November 2007,http:// Civil AviationAirports, Authority, at UKRegional 36. Air Services business-30775021 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ 2014’, BBCNews, 12/01/2015, record passengernumbersin 35. ‘Heathrow report andGatwick er+growth+in+2015.html ports+optimistic+about+passeng Articles/2015/04/10/53785/uk+air www.travelweekly.co.uk/ Weekly, 10/04/2015,http:// growth in2015’, Travel optimistic aboutpassenger 34. Phil Davies, ‘UK airports visits-abroad Commentary--UK-residents-- rpt-travel-trends--2013.html#tab- ons/rel/ott/travel-trends/2013/ 2014, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ for National Statistics, May 33. Travel Trends 2013,Office www.policy-network.net

policy network paper ht ey rcs apas o e apnn i Bian Te hr below chart The Britain. in happening be to appears process very That accelerate. suddenly differences dramaticgenerational and diversity ethnic growing urbanisation, of trends which at join, periods historical two which at one – point” “hinge a calls University) Princeton of Dyson (quotingFreeman director political Clinton’s Bill former Sosnik, to about is just asbecome and liberal internationalist as that whole it London, seem does isthe country at what Doug a as Britain that claim to wrong be would it Although section. this in explored are which manifestations, political and attitudinal various have trends economic and social These Union Flag will surely to domore inspire than any political words.” Sun –The the in wrapped Olympians three these of sight the Yet seen. be to remain Games these of ramifications social liketoday...hislong-term war-ravaged theseshores from The Britainiswhat This looks homeland. A ginger bloke from Milton Keynes, a mixed-race from Sheffield, anbeauty ethnicSomali given shelter on “It was 46 golden Olympic minutes when three young Britons showed the watching world just who we are. 2. The emerging cosmopolitan majority majority cosmopolitan emerging The 2. school with their children). their with school to go to likely more also are children (his Britain outside born people know, otherwise or with, work to university; to been office; to an have in 1997work toin non-white; counterpart his was be tothan likely more is were, it as Man, box).Mondeo (see England middle on The advancing is tide cosmopolitan whole. a as country the in than faster most, in and – decade past the over rapidly progressed have trends socioeconomic big the each, the Tories).In to lost it seats the of one is fifth the take, to failed party the that targets Labour are four first (the constituencies marginal Conservative-Labour in recent presidential elections. in recent presidential Florida, Colorado and Virginia into Ohio, ‘purple’ swing states, like which have states trended towards ‘red’ the Democrats Republican solidly former turned have they predicted, Teixeira and Judis as America, In elections. decide that places of sorts the into and country a of parts latte-sipping the of out spread can – eco-system economic post-industrial a of emergence the population, minority the how shows also America Yet trends in described one part of places. this paper – the rise of four education, university the growth of the ethnic all values; in vote cosmopolitan conservative of the of cradles decline been the long witness have Manchester) and London read York, New and California (for areas certain here, like There, Britain. in happening is what of foretaste a is America

11 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015

Wales and England Change between between Change Central Croydon Swindon South Nuneaton 2011 and 2001 in: West Bolton South Warrington British” Non-“white share of population, % population, of share +153% +88% +58% +56% +59% +79% Manufacturing jobs jobs Manufacturing as proportion of total, % total, of proportion as -40% -40% -60% -44% -42% -39% 47 48

Share of population population of Share born outside UK, % UK, outside born 49 shows five typical typical five shows +44% +46% +80% +49% +65% +65% neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/ and 2011Census, http:// 2011Census Constituency; Westminster Parliamentary StatisticsNeighbourhood by 49. Office for National Statistics, VR639lpH1sP clinton-116480.html#. predictions-americas-sosnik- magazine/story/2015/03/2016- http://www.politico.com/ moment’, Politico, 29/03/2015, Sosnik, 48. Doug ‘America’s hinge melting-pot-generation.pdf content/uploads/2012/12/The- www.britishfuture.org/wp- Future, December 2012,http:// More Relaxed OnRace, British Generation: How Became Britain Binita Mehta, The Pot Melting Jolley, and SunderKatwala Ford,47. Quoted inRob Rachael www.policy-network.net

policy network paper East Ham and BrentNorth. and Ham East abroad: born was electorate the of cent per 50 over where seats two were there time, first the For million people eligible to vote in the 2015 were election born outside UK, up from 3.5 million in 2010. election.” the of effect the 3million who electors tellpollsters that theymight Ukip support in theforthcoming as significant as least at be to out turn could behaviour voting minority in “Changes year: last it put be to dramatically on the significant” rise – and those “very where it is or “minimal” to be “significant” declining fast. As Phillipsis and Webber impact BME the where seats of number the shown also damage as this electorate is only going to become more significant.” more become to going only is electorate this as damage lasting face they then that to respond not do parties the If alienating. profoundly rhetoric of kind debate: millions of British hard-working citizens who came to this country from abroad who find this this to side another is there “But Ford. notes migrants,” on line harder a offer to looking parties the have made all the running “Ukip with the immigration debate Ukip. in the to, past few exclusive years and we means have seen all no of by albeit with, associated most rhetoric nativist the by off put are voters ever-more population, minority Britain’s ethnic of rise the with that, is obvious most The voters minority ethnic More headings. several under fall main answers The in outlook? cosmopolitan more What do these changes mean for politicians? What evidence is there that Britain, overall, is becoming Worcester, South Swindon, Rugby, Stroud and Warrington South. Warrington and Rugby,Stroud Swindon, Worcester, South in the 2015 OBV listed election, classic middle England marginals like Keighley, Milton Keynes South, election (up from 99 in the 2005 election). Among the “constituencies where the BME vote can win it” vote BME the notes, in 186 (OBV) than candidate’swas winning larger the at majority 2010the seats and will grow. results Black As Simon Operation election oninfluence oftheir VoteWoolley Ham Brent North, East like seats diverse traditionally of out spread descendants their and immigrants As

away.” yourself segregate of kind to need anythere’s think don’t really.I Europe, of part being for all “I’m and bringing a separate skill set to the country, I really can’t see that there’s a problem with it at all.” are We’re coming world. whole to the as move wepeople like. live long and free where “There’s As motorway.” things and the off Spencer and Marks big the Ikea, stores, department big got later,we’ve until open shopping’s Wednesday. Now a on day half- closed everywhere Warrington, to moved first we When modern. more become “Definitely live.” Live let and it. with […] comfortable being not year people hear I don’t every town the in event pride gay a have we mean I liberal. fairly is Warrington say “I’d voters Comments from there ordinary give a flavouron of the riseattitudes across middle England. bellwether. electoral an been long has constituency South Warrington The economy. industrial” increasingly diverse population, a growing population university-educated and an ever-more “post- an cities, big the to links closer paper: this of section first the in discussed trends the of number a experiencing is it Manchester, and Liverpool between Midway ground. the on them examine to Warrington visited I 4, Radio BBC for developments these of some on programme a making While England middle Voices cosmopolitan of 12 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 50 54 52 That trend is only going in one direction. direction. in one going is only trend That 53 The organisation’s research has researchorganisation’s The 51 He has a point: around 4 around point: a has He tories-missing-half-million/ demos.co.uk/article/issue-2/the- 2014,http://quarterly.April million voters, Quarterly, Demos Phillips, ‘The Tories’ missinghalf 54. Richard Webber and Trevor the-Black-Vote-OBV com/doc/159511648/Power-of- August 2013,http://www.scribd. Face ofEnglandand Wales, OBV, Black Vote in2015: The Changing 53. Lester Holloway, Power ofthe 52. Taylor, 2015 voters-born-overseas politics/2015/jan/29/surge-in- http://www.theguardian.com/ The Guardian, 29/01/2015, vote inkeyUKconstituencies’, in migrant voters could swing 51. Cited inMatthew Taylor, ‘Surge 50. Cliffe and Proctor, 2015 www.policy-network.net

policy network paper proportion of proportion immigrants in Britain is about twice as high as it actually is. ot omny soitd ih h peoeo ws “illegal”. was phenomenon the with associated commonly most word 2012,2010 the and between media print the of study Observatory Migration a to according British, rather than whether they are Christian, were born in Britain or have or in Britain British ancestry. are they Christian, were born than whether British, rather someone make what are life, public its in participation and values, and institutions country’s the for respect that assumption growing the Britain: in population diverse a of spread and growth the one. What these point to caused by shift is immigration attitudinal and the perhaps most important “civic” a of rise the and nationhood of sense “ethnic” an of decline the documents similarly which reflect that. They tend to be much more comfortable with diversity. They tend to regard it as an as life.” everyday of it part unremarkable regard to tend They diversity. with comfortable more much be to tend They nationalismthat. and reflect identity and ethnicity with do to issues about views their and cohorts older the growing up cohorts more argues:recently have“The grown up in a thanmuch more diverse society issue, Britons are less likely to call it a personal one. personal a it call to likely less are Britons issue, national a as it describe to Europeans other than likely more though Indeed, whole). a as country (as issues toand families their them that the facing is of immigration Mori the biggest one opposed Ipsos tell Few them. mind not do least, at or, – immigrants individual like broadly, do, Britons But more on civic values.” civic on more based one to Britishness of understanding ancestral an from move a of is discerned, be can one as such time, over trend “The cohesion: social on report government-commissioned a to According Britishness civic of emergence The years. pre-war the of Britain homogeneous the in born those are as country the facing issue important an as immigration describe to likely immigrants as half roughly are – of schoolmates their among children the with area, diverse a in up grown have to likely more much are who – in evident already is differentage on groups. among immigration polling According after born toMori, thoseIpsos 1980 trend attitudinal That “immigration”). personal less and negative more the than (rather “immigrants” of terms in think to Britons more many expect can we towns small and move Thus asand their descendants of immigrants out areas of concentration and into the suburbs in the newspapers. read they stories lurid the with does, it as clashing, reality the ebbs; hostility their immigrants, biggest two the are what country. the voters facing issues asks Mori Ipsos when answers top the among appeared has often subject the and lot”, a “reduced be should it say Most immigration. like much not do Britons content breeds familiarity immigrants: and Diversity propensity to say that there are “too many” immigrants. many” “too are there that say to propensity greater a with correlates immigration with familiarity of lack by that shows Fund study Marshal German A the fade.” to starts hostility our know, to come have we that world the of parts particular and London like immigration of levels high it: with about comfortable are, according most Manchester to polls, the areas why explain to helps it) puts Kellner as that the less voters know about immigration, the more hostile to are. they it hostile more the immigration, about that voters less know the

13 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 world mix perfectly happily. The stories of division and hostility are striking for their rarity.”their for are striking happily. and hostility of division stories The perfectly mix world from allthe round people pubs and offices inand muchschools, Britain, ofurban the streets […] In soccer study Premiership play or companies, takeaways cook build shops, corner to run patients, Britain treat science, in settle who people by offended are us of many “Not 60 As Peter Kellner of YouGov asked the about it: puts “When men and women from 65 This is in line with the findings of the British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey, (BSA) Attitudes Social British the of findings the with line in is This 55 It seems this is, at least partly, the product of negative media coverage; media negative of product the partly, least at is, this seems It 64 59 When voters have personal experience of of experience personal have voters When 61 That trend (“familiarity breeds content,” breeds (“familiarity trend That 56 Moreover, Britons think the the think Britons Moreover, 57 Ipsos Mori has also shown 58

63 As Ford As 62 January 2012, January Committee,Migration Advisory CohesionSocial andIntegration, ofMigration on The Impact FordRob Sobolewska, andMaria 65. Shamit Saggar, Will Somerville, 64. Cliffe and Proctor, 2015 Smith, 2014,p17 63. Bobbyand Duffy Tom Frere- 62. Kellner, 2015 im.html are_we_so_concerned_about_ markeaston/2011/02/why_ co.uk/blogs/legacy/thereporters/ 03/02/2011, http://www.bbc. immigration?’, BBCNews, we soconcerned about Easton, 61. Mark are‘Why content/ immigration-familiarity-breeds- yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/02/ YouGov, 02/02/2015,https:// breeds content’,familiarity 60. Peter Kellner, ‘Immigration: Smith, 2014,p88 59. Bobbyand Duffy Tom Frere- on11/5/15 Mori 2015 by Ipsos taken between February andMay 58. Private presentation ofpolling aspx Things-the-world-gets-wrong. Perceptions-are-not-reality- researcharchive/3466/ com/researchpublications/ https://www.ipsos-mori. wrong, 29/10/14, Mori, Ipsos reality: Things theworld gets 57. ‘Perceptions are not Smith, 2014,p87 56. Bobbyand Duffy Tom Frere- immigration-report-2013.pdf p16 perceptions-and-reality- DownloadPublication/1634_sri- https://www.ipsos-mori.com/ 2014,p16, Institute, January Research Social Mori Ipsos Public Attitudes to Immigration, Smith, Perception andReality: 55. Bobbyand Duffy Tom Frere- www.policy-network.net

policy network paper older. +24 per cent among 25-39s, -1 per cent among the 40-59s and per cent-6 among those aged 65 and 18-24, aged those among membership for support cent per +43 net a with young, country’s the by for spearheaded support was rise cent). This per 35to centlargest (45 per began records its the since union the in staying posted YouGov February, in rise; the on clearly the now is during it understandably, crisis, dipped, eurozone have to appears this Though EU. the for support in growth the in manifest is this referendum), impending the given relevantly, perhaps (and obviously Most so. less former the and common, more is becoming poises these of latter the sea, across the links new isas that, Britain’sforging isevidence population electorate has become increasingly libertarian over has increasingly the become libertarian last electorate 25 years,” says Tilley. the that case the clearly is “It swansong. its like more is it is that suggests research academic and Ukip’s rise is sometimes characterised as the resurgence of social conservatism in Britain. The polling live let Live and on. goes time as referendum a such win to easier steadily become will it equal) being else (all that means me, to cohort drift towards a more cosmopolitan outlook,” agrees Ford. agrees outlook,” towards cosmopolitan amore drift cohort a variety of a bracing possibilities, both variety and good bad. Britain has the of politics an island.” even encircled, feel can claustrophobic. Turnisland to face an the waves and sea, an island feels likeopen a point, starting a the place surrounded by to back your 2012:“With in observed columnist Bagehot Economist’s the as world, outside the relationshipwith bifurcated a alwayshashad Britain turn A pro-European 51 are muchcloser: 65 cent over and 24 and numbers aged per the cent.those per among uncomfortable; are cent per five and relationships mixed-race with comfortable 18-24are of streets Britain.” Yet again, the generational gap on this question is 70stark. per cent of those aged the on reaction caused have would backgrounds ethnic different from couple a ago, decades few “A writes: Future, British of formerly Jolley, Rachael As families. mixed-race of acceptance growing the be might Another women. non-white professional, well-off, of population growing Britain’s to idea: to make tights in a much than range wider of are skin-tones commonly available and sell them business compelling her to thanks won almost these of last the trends, demographic country’s the of revealingly similarly detail a In woman. British black a and Spaniard a Australian, an on cheered viewers which in Apprentice, The show, reality business-based popular the of season latest the be might Another 2012Olympics. the at Farah Mo and Ennis like athletes British for enthusiasm the is example One practice? in like look it does What nationhood. of sense Dream’-like ‘American an towards moving is Britain that suggesting implications, its in cosmopolitan profoundly is shift This traditions.” and customs sharing and ancestry birth, as such factors on dependent as Britishness of think to arelikely less who by generations are replaced and out die generations may as older well decline, identity national about thinking in factors ethnic ascribed to attached importance the time, over apply, 40 per cent of those born 1964after do. As the BSA concludes: findings“These suggest that, factors civic only 1945think before born those of cent 13 per only whereas but factors, civic and ethnic of mix a by defined is Britishness think Britons Most generational. sharply is too, shift, This the EU in any in-out referendum. in-out any in EU the in remain to Britain for vote probably or definitely would they said cent per Sixty-seven “bad”. or bad” “very said who cent 15 just per with “good”, compared or good” “very generally membership

14 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 69 Polling of first-time voters by Opinium last December found that 62 per cent thought EU thought cent per 62 that found December last Opinium by voters first-time of Polling 66 70 This generational shift, as more than one interviewee observed observed interviewee one than more as shift, generational This 72 71 “There is a steady “There 67 68 But there 72. Cliffe and Proctor, 2015 Tilley withJames 71. Author interview labour#img-1 voters-eu-2015-election-farage- politics/2014/dec/27/first-time- http://www.theguardian.com/ The Observer, 27/12/2014, liberal –andnofansofFarage’, time voters: pro-EU, socially 70. Toby Helm, ‘Britain’s first- eu-referendum-record-lead/ yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/24/ YouGov, 24/02/2015,https:// for staying intheEU’,support 69. William Jordan, ‘Record node/21543529 http://www.economist.com/ The Economist, 28/01/2012, 68. Bagehot, ‘Great SOS’, Britain 67. Ford etal, December 2012 identity.aspx national-identity/defining-british- british-social-attitudes-31/ bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/ Attitudes,Social http://www. Attitudes Social British 31, 66. identity’, British ‘Defining www.policy-network.net

policy network paper need for them to embrace the country’s more cosmopolitan future, some caveats deserve an airing. caveats deserve some future, cosmopolitan more country’s the to them embrace for need the and parties political main the for make-up changing Britain’s of implications the discuss I Before voters. urban and minority, ethnic young among greater support its of form the in edge an has successfully, most Labour tide if even cosmopolitan the with pace keep can government of this). changing parties main the of which clear is less it Britain In party Republican rejuvenated a imagine to possible Clinton and it is Obama even there, (though of party the benefited “emerging Democrat majority”, as the name suggests, has for deep reasons structural overwhelmingly these can changes. Neither take to its thisability meet imperative for granted. In the United States the nation- required tospanning support majorities the secure in big parliamentary the future, it will obtain have to toadapt to wants parties Labour and Conservative the of either if mistake: no make And strengths. these of most the the make to it welcome enable will – and outlook urban world and spirit the live-and-let-live increasingly to its diversity, open country’s door Britain’s keep that ones – governments cosmopolitan internationally its connections, Confidently cities. assertive successful, increasingly diaspora its and universities its industries, international service oriented and talents their harness and arrivals new to successfully the ability integrateworld (not remarkable its own its least European neighbourhood), of parts different with links and partnerships of web its are strengths greatest country’s the Among A cosmopolitan politics is not just electorally advisable. It is progressive, liberating and good for Britain. 3. Keepbuildingthosebridges business).of out firms small driving to opposed (as want they that what thinkpeople gives it to because big likely so is example, more Tesco, for and packets cigarette of regulation government about sceptical more utilities, of privatisation the of supportive more NHS, the about elders their than sentimental less The other main of aspect this individualist trend is the rise of economic liberalism. Young are people any and overchange aggregate differences time.” age associated are driving values in changes generational that appears it plausibly more much attitudes; libertarian in sees one that data sectional cast doubt on the are idea effects responsiblethatfor thelife-cycle largeage disparities shifting, generation by generation, in a more relaxed direction. Tilley continues: “Both panel and cross- whole a as society is It liberalism. typical people’s young just than more this is suggest, figures the As cent atit was per not all. wrong said In 2012 figures were per 28centthe equivalent and per 47cent. concerning homosexuality. In 1987 74 per cent was said homosexuality always or mostly wrong and those 11 been have changes such dramatic most the Among cent. per 62 to cent per 37 from risen has sex opposing pre-marital has dropped from 28 per cent to 11 per cent; for support the ‘right to choose’ cent; per 48 haswho want 70from fallen children to those should marry saying people centper to 42 cent cent;per those per 74 from fallen has penalty death the supporting people of proportion the of thisOne aspect is the dramatic rise of social liberalism since the 1980s. According to the BSA survey, “over […] time again”such on matters. liberal more become will they that survey,says the runs that organisation research the NatCen, of executive PennyYoung, chief the – Rob Ford Goodwin. – Rob Matthew and hearing from our political class and a responseproper to problems that have festeringbeen for decades.” respectful a to right a have they but haircuts, or clothes right the have not may Clacton of people “The

15 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 76 Britain, in short, is becoming a more live-and-let-live place. live-and-let-live amore is becoming in short, Britain, 77

74 75 73

77. Ford 2014 andGoodwin, are-89 next-years-general-election-we- voters-not-ukipers-will-decide- britain/21625880-moderate- www.economist.com/news/ Economist, 28/10/2014,http:// 76. ‘We are the89%’, The James Tilley with 75. Author interview 74. Cliffe and Proctor, 2015 http://www.bsa-data.natcen.ac.uk Attitudes Social 73. British Survey, www.policy-network.net

policy network paper qualifications are less likely to turn out than older ones with the fewest qualifications. fewest with the ones older less arethanqualifications out likely to turn cosmopolitan tide. tide. cosmopolitan to that, accommodate while seeking older, voters, also more toconservative adapts the liberalising, politics viable electorally an forge parties main both help would level turnout that Raising large. at country the sweeping challenges, policy attendant and changes, attitudinal and social the behind among young Britons is not just undesirable in principle; it also creates the risk that Westminster lags A smart political party would seek to do something serious about this. Disproportionately low turnout the voters. protect older of to interests 2010-15 government the of efforts disproportionate the to unrelated not trend a for the 2015 had not election yet figures published.) This been gap generation has increased overdefinitive the years, published was paper this (As cent. per 55 little-better a was 34 and 25 between aged those among Turnout above. and 65 aged those among cent per 76 with compared voted, At change That is, in the 2010any needed. case, cent badly 18-24per of those aged 44 only election comparison. global by poor poorly does (related) country the which their on measure a and welfare, child Britons for bad is of balance work-life consumerism growing The strain. vast under infrastructure country’s the putting are developments these commuting, in rise subsequent the with Along be. to want people where places to) connected efficiently least, at (or in housing decent of shortage growing population and rapidly the concentration A of economic in activity challenges. the cities are policy fuelling an new appalling create that and aside brushed or ignored be simply cannot that side-effects generates it positive, clearly balance, on is, shift cosmopolitan Britain’s although First, but but right now it ishard.” very [cosmopolitan]direction, that in moved have will everything because answer to question strategic easier much a be will it again, discussion this we’rehaving now, if from other.[…] years the Fifteen […] to youof one with alienating anyproposal groups these cannot appeal without concrete policy transition: “As this cosmopolitan group grows and the socially conservative group gradually declines of period a experience will country the meantime the in but Ford, says time, with decline gradually fringes of the cities, the booming metropolises can seem alien and unsettling. This phenomenon will rapidly changing country around them. Viewed from the remote towns and some of the “left behind” with the Britain’s createsSecond, istensions. political shift comfortable Not everyone cosmopolitan other country’s trends. cosmopolitan the with keeping of out is that conservatism social a Britain to bring immigrants some areas: certain in failures belie not does integration on record overall good country’s the And transition, as Katwala puts it, by appealing to younger voters. to younger by appealing it, puts astransition, Katwala this to in” “lean to to electorate cosmopolitan growing the to trying appeal to and change national to parties adapt for sense makes thus It present. the also are they Britons younger many for but a spirit, live-and-let-live internationalism Britain’s may for these be – preference future, a and a population majority-graduate identity, national civic a population, diverse A experiencing. is Britain of thistwo Ipaper sections have Over the first notedageon gradientstark themany of the changes voters young on focus A new themselves. Two suggest advice of pieces broad very The question therefore is: how should politicians and policy makers navigate this period of transition? thing overall).good a is transition that if (even becoming is Britain country the in ill-at-ease is it because simply group

16 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 78 The rise in the number of people living alone contributes to the problem of loneliness. 81 It is even larger than the educational one: young Britons with the most most the with Britons young one: educational the than larger even is It 79 It would toand be pernicious undemocratic ignore or disparage that 80 82 82. Fisher 2014 andHillman, 2015-election-long-register-vote/ hepi-students-tip-balance-power- www.hepi.ac.uk/2014/12/01/ December 2014,p15,http:// Education Policy Institute, Full-Time Students, Higher and Voting Behaviour Among Registration, Elections? Turnout Students Do SwingHillman, 81. Stephen DFisher andNick 80. Fisher 2014 andHillman, 2015-election-long-register-vote/ hepi-students-tip-balance-power- www.hepi.ac.uk/2014/12/01/ December 2014,p15,http:// Education Policy Institute, Full-Time Students, Higher and Voting Behaviour Among Registration, Elections? Turnout Students Do SwingHillman, 79. Stephen DFisher andNick Katwala withSunder 78. Author interview www.policy-network.net

policy network paper live far from their place of study, placeof stations. their from polling live thus and designated far their of outside held term time, ratesfor can example, mean much for votersstudent lower who turn-out Elections institution. educational an and home family a between time their split or basis, informal per cent of whom were not registered this spring): this registered not were whom of cent per 20 voters, minority ethnic of true also is incidentally, same, (the group churning rapidly footloose, that “would seek to manage the pressures brought by immigration while securing its too”.benefits minority”, that “would close the or borders, even send all immigrants back”, and an “anxious middle” its excellent guide, How In to Talk About Immigration, British Future non-cosmopolitanism. distinguishes a between “rejectionist ‘soft’ and non-cosmopolitanism ‘hard’ distinguish should they First, to navigate these. attempts tensions. Two policymakers and politicians’ guide should principles But they are not enough. Some subjects, like immigration and its effects, clearly createmore complicated elected other or MP an to writing politician”. as such engagement, political of methods traditional use to more voters older than likely “much less Observer, whole the voters)toaccording and, older among 10cent per a as politics with compared cent per (three make party a join to to likely less both are more who people, young to do appealing also can politicians easier, voting making Beyond argued. has Economist the as difference, big a make also surely, would this, ; has suggested) Adonis Andrew (as colleges education further and schools in booths polling with combined 16,to age voting the ether lower to proposals the Democrat Liberal in and Labour point. already starting a suggestions provide together promising of number A now. start should election 2020 the in Doing so would require overconcerted effort a numberof to years.efforts Indeed, youthlift turnout themselves, themselves, deserve attention. stations polling at day election on possible be registration that and institution, higher-education their by registered be students that Proposals register. to voters young for easier be also should It effective. dramatically to so, them do could be encouraging togeneration cast their ballots through a secure website, with an integrated social media campaign about it. about investment in skills both respond to this change and help allay the concerns of those uncomfortable and infrastructure improved house-building, likePolicies straightforward. is so doing Toextent, some not. should it Indeed, not. of are that parts those and between change cosmopolitan divide experiencing the country bridge the to efforts out rule not does approach forward-looking This divide the Bridging any referendum. European upcoming for decisions in the cosmopolitan future. country’s long-term, It is relevant in particularly the light of change dramatically would 35, British under propelling politics, it through the coming aged age of transition and providing Britons a stronger mandate of turnout the lifting but easy, be not may It Obama the campaign. yes to Scottish the independence and campaign 2008 people: young engaging in succeeded have that movements political recent two of and citizens, as well That isof campaigns. assupporters the associated lesson single-issue networks broader looser, cultivating instead distinction, member/voter constituency-centric the from away per cent on Instagram and 33 per cent on The Student 33 Room. and cent The on cent per Instagram on per on Twitter, 55 cent per 68 Facebook, on active were 2015 the election in voters first-time potential Morris, a public opinion expert at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. Rosner Quinlan Greenberg at expert opinion public a Morris, 17 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 90 “Young people are used to more fine-grained choice” in their lives, observes James James observes lives, their in choice” fine-grained more to used are people “Young 83 83 may all help. BercowJohn has that onlinesaid should offer Britain voting by 2020 87 Here, too, online voting would help. Young people are an especially 88 88 many rent accommodation on a short-term, short-term, a on accommodation rent many 86 Enabling this obviously web-centric web-centric thisEnabling obviously 91 So parties need to move to need parties So 89 85 Some 92 per cent of of cent per 92 Some 84 84 92

About-Immigration-FINAL.pdf uploads/2014/11/How-To-Talk- britishfuture.org/wp-content/ Future,British 2014,http://www. How to Talk About Immigration, Rhodes,Ballinger andMatthew Steve92. SunderKatwala, James Morris with 91. Author interview 90. Helm,2014 89. Fisher 2014 andHillman, community?CMP=share_btn_tw voters-life-get-better-bame- feb/06/million-missing- com/commentisfree/2015/ 06/02/2015, www.theguardian. communities?’, The Guardian, life getbetter for Britain’s BAME million missingvoters, how can 88. Doreen Lawrence, a ‘With 87. Fisher 2014 andHillman, 86. Helm,2014 electorate-apathetic-fallacy could-transform-britains- britain/21648712-online-voting- www.economist.com/news/ Economist, 18/04/2015, http:// 85. ‘Apathetic fallacy’, The html speaker-john-bercow-10001782. to-vote-online-by-2020-says- politics/britons-should-be-able- independent.co.uk/news/uk/ 26/01/2015,www.Independent, says SpeakerJohnBercow’, The be ableto vote onlineby 2020, 84. Oliver Wright, ‘Britons should Web_3_.pdf?1374245389 DemosAnniv_08notimeline- demos.co.uk/files/477zzzm_ of Ideas, Demos, 2013,www. (eds) Goodhart Twenty Years often’ ScottandDavid inRalph Tyndall, ‘Vote and vote early 83. Andrew Adonis andAdam www.policy-network.net

policy network paper to follow. primaries) as example the Democratic to Obama’s points Barack in Philadelphia in (during speech March Katwala 2008 the and belonging. nation about talking of way cosmopolitan peculiarly a developed have politicians American Some toexhibit. iscoming Britain west, the in any than other more mix, multicoloured successful broadly British wholesale, imported be cannot politicians should take inspiration from the great melting pot across the Atlantic, register the whose country and speech political American although Again, background. personal thanrather above):asparticipation discussed and values by defined is Neither should Britishbe discussed constructive. in identity civic terms (as to ethnic opposed ones, to patronise them as it is to pander to anti-immigration sentiment that some of their residents harbour. Ukip voters. It is broadly fair to call places like Clacton economically behind”,“left but it is as unhelpful today’s of children the of pensions and healthcare the for paying months), not be (if decades within will, immigrants today’s of grandchildren the that example, for noted, be might It children. friends’ and grandchildren children, their of interests the in are changes the that persuaded are they if least, be may at extent some votersto this, to reconciled be may they but Older changing, is Britain how about problem. uncomfortable the not solution, the of part be should language and tone Finally, ‘flexicurity’ Danish successful the by model, should become the inspired norm, helping inpeople depressed areas develop new, perhaps marketable skills. infrastructure, learning life-long fuller A a churning economic and social future increasingly susceptible to change. and global technological give way to the acquisition of capabilities, particularly resilience and adaptability, preparing pupils for The education system, too, has a role to play. focus An should knowledge-acquisition old-fashioned, mayors, metro an area inis this help which the pioneer,Manchester clearly process. would certainly commuter towns the serving cities. travel-to-work Unifying areas through combined authorities and which, industrial areasas former toEmmerich argues, can moribund, enable reinvent themselves as improvements, road workaday to project Crossrail vast the from ranging general, in links transport better are So solution. the of part are unemployed the and isolated the elderly, the the of improve skills digital to programmes and broadband Expanding increases. country the of parts to outlying them linking of importance the so dominant, increasingly become economies booming post-industrial their and cities the As becoming. is Britain that country the in them for place a is there that feel broadly, more and, benefits these experience people number ensure possible greatest can the that policies public good overall, positive are trends cosmopolitan the although Second, counterparts. European northern its of some like footing, insurance-based contributory, more a onto state welfare the moving long-term, the in and, schools for regime the provision of Englishby expanding teaching,inspection a rigorous more while at the same time being more insistent that they embrace liberal values. This can be backed up between clearly more distinguish welcoming of new arrivals and immigration (good) lack to of integration (bad); whole-heartedly being is middle” “anxious the over winning for strategy Another for example) for pressures, aproxy. are they which often service public and housing (about issues bread-and-butter the into immigration about anxieties translate politicians if especially so, less much are latter the of views The racist views of the former are very difficult toreconcile with cosmopolitanBritain. The non-racist

18 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 then another one. And nothing will change. will nothing And one. another then And one. then another And other distraction. some about we’ll talking be election, in the next in regardless of the his election general Wepolicies. can do that. But if we do, I can tell you that McCain John to flock all will men white whether on speculate can we or card, race the playing she’s that evidence as supporter Hillary a by gaffe some […] on cynicism. pounce and can We “For we have a choice in this country. We can accept that division and conflict a breeds politics 93 It is It hard to disagree:

Sunder Katwala with 93. Author interview www.policy-network.net

policy network paper • to following: the recover in mind keep over should it coming months the years, and seeks party the of thatgovernment in 21stcould advantage potentially make it the natural party As Britain. century an from off Labour error,cutting grave a be would corner that into itself Yet boxing them. of some in rise the on undoubtedly is Ukip places. such in roots deep has all, after Labour, argument: this of appeal the see to easy is It communities. working-class white, small-town, with “reconnecting” it about talk much been has there result election dismal young party’s the of minority, wake the In ethnic voters. urban and among lead its about complacency of risk real at is It politics. Scottish of dominance its about inevitable wasnothing as just there voters, young and minority ethnic among Conclusion: leanin Conservative Conservative 11.8 million, Labour 12.3 million.” Conservative was Wales million;change]9 in2050 10.5 we estimate that could be [followingit demographic Labour million, and England in vote popular the in balance the 2010 “In it: put Webber and Philips As rejoice. to grounds Labour give paper this in described changes the glance, first At party Labour The about hard think should parties political the is things asketch the of following thatBritain’s may they some of The want to consider: changes. term, parliamentary new the for prepare they As to convene, to soon ahead. time over plan parliament ideal anew the and election the with reflect that indicators” divisions, debates and events that are intoalready receding the distance. “lagging That makes times like this, it, terms Sosnik as are, They records. other’s each and own their define to seek opponents and governments way,as that fought certainly are Elections backwards. understood often is Politics here. situation the about important something captures quote above Britain may be at a differentplace on the road to afuture thancosmopolitan is America. YetSosnik’s ae o te mrc o te uue ahr hn h Aeia f h ps i ms lkl t b or 45th our be to likely most is past the president.” Sosnik –Doug of America the than rather future the of America the on based campaign a runs and changing is country the how understands 2016 best in who president for running the 2016“While presidential is election likely to thereflect last remnantsof this bygoneera, the candidate

19 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 that give “left behind” parts of the country a share the rise of the incities. of the country the trends fuelling parts behind” that give “left policies require will so doing three, part in discussed As England. middle in voters swing Labour in areas, working-class urban hyper-cosmopolitan voters and the increasingly cosmopolitan Tory- voters together 20-30 binding bolder: (and be to has place),Labour taken ahead has change boundary seats once more 100 now party Conservative a with Faced voters. working-class white must do in Scotland). But it is not remotely it enough for to the as consolidateparty among its support (just moribund become has it where country the of parts in organisationally rebuilding by in well areasshould to course seek Of Labour in head off the thatelection. some northern, threat did undoubtedly Ukip leadership. strong and inclusion unity, through Ukip Tackle century economy.century this Not time.” 21sta in behind fall them let not will we and kids, our are they kids, those not are America of children The problem. else’s somebody are us like look don’t who kids those that learn; children. American This time, we Native want to the thatcynicism reject tells us and that these kids can’t children Hispanic and children Asian and children white and children black of this time.’ This time, we want thatto the schools crumbling aretalk about stealing the future say,‘Not and together come can we election, this in moment, this atOr, option. one is That 95

94

96 Yet there is nothing inevitable about the party’s lead 96. Phillips and Webber, July2014 2015 95. Sosnik, php?storyId=88478467 npr.org/templates/story/story. Radio, 18/03/2008,http://www. Speech onRace, National Public 94. Transcript: Barack Obama’s www.policy-network.net

policy network paper • • •

20 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 United Kingdom make anecessity. it United Kingdom trends make winning such places again a of possibility,Scotland apart the and drift the rest of the cosmopolitan If not. has it But majority. a command to ability party’s the to threat a such posed have not need Scotland in SNP the of rise 1997, inthe then took it that seats England middle of the Liberal party. Liberal the rival, left-leaning its does than voters such from support more enjoys party Conservative the a sudden tilt in their political affiliation. That is precisely what has in happened Canada, where producing voters minority ethnic of ladder economic the up and cities the of moveout rapid figure, Sajid Javid)such as the and even or anminority ethnic Johnson Boris the under down, steps Cameron David once (especially, leadership Tory reformist a of combination the shift: 2010 in cent per 16to is 2005 in cent Britons per 10 from such rose them on among support grip Conservative slipping. party’s the Already groups). cosmopolitan other as well (as voters a minority ethnic betrays among This lead its one. about class complacency patronising working debatably, white, and, dangerous its is vulnerable is party the which on flank the only if as talk Labour in some Moreover, granted. for voters minority ethnic take not Do than electors.” working-class middle-class more million 6 has Today, Britain million. 2 by electors middle-class outnumbered of a “Half As Kellner ago, voterscentury observes: two-thirds were class. working In 1997, they still traits. middle-class certain with groups least at or class, middle the of rise the isas fragmentation voters as there are Another working-class” wayones. atworker” “emerging of this looking service “traditional many as half about now are there one, part in discussed As was. it what not is class” “working of meaning is classvery that the base working its with to complicating reconnect Labour callsfor the factor second A bloc. static monolithic, a as class” working “the treat not Do an approach. behind such of electorate to the and enough persuasive unitesegments different drastically charismatic leadership Labour a demands it of most But society). civil and reform political the world) with the best of Blue Labour (a communitarian approach to things like democracy, It will mean melding the best of New (aLabour aspirational, modern, open vision of Britain in boundary review). boundary next the at seats parliamentary of numbers greater in reflected be will growth population (their march the on are they when time the precisely at cities big the on grip hard-won its lose rapidly, quite perhaps and time over will, voters mobile upwardly cosmopolitan, with touch loses that party Labour A effect. similar a have would parties, main the all of parts in in such places. representation in Proportional a local elections, measure increasingly popular Leeds or Manchester a electing charismatic, Toryindependent-minded imagine mayor, toproviding with the a party foothold possible entirely is It sinecure). Labour a be towas created, assumed when that, post (a mayoralty London the to elections lost has party the row a in Twice Green. Golders & Finchley and Hendon East, Harrow Southgate, Enfield Central, Croydon likeBattersea, seats target crucial win to failed it favourable, are demographics the and formidable organisationally is party the where London, in Even granted. for cities the Pay the cities heed. For the same reasons, it would be wrong to assume that Labour can take  writes, the Tories are “breaking Labour’s monopoly on ethnic diversity in parliament” in diversity ethnic on monopoly Labour’s “breaking areTories the writes, seats.” safe for candidates non-white new select to likely most been have Conservatives “The that: two major parties”. major two the between representation’ for ‘race competitive increasingly an captures 2015intake “the 99 (at the time of writing definitive figures for 2015 were not yet available). As Katwala Katwala As available). yet not were 2015 for figures definitive writing of time the (at 102 It is quite easy to imagine these early steps forward by the Tories heralding a bigger Toriesbigger a the by heralding forward steps early these imagine to easy quiteis It 101 A report by his thinktank, British Future, before the election reported reported election the before Future, British thinktank, his by report A 97 Had Labour kept up with this trend, and kept winning the numbers 98

100 and and minority-MPs.Final_.23.3.15-1.pdf uploads/2015/03/Ethnic- britishfuture.org/wp-content/ Future, March 2015,http://www. Normal’ Politics, inBritish British the Diversity Became ‘New Representation: How Ethnic Steve Ballinger, The for Race and 102. SunderKatwala diverse-parliament/ org/articles/class-of-2015-most- 8/5/15 http://www.britishfuture. ever parliament’, Future, British 2015 enter Britain’s mostdiverse 101. SunderKatwala, classof ‘The html ethnic-diversity-in-parliament. breaking-labours-monopoly-on- katwala-the-conservatives-are- com/platform/2015/03/sunder- http://www.conservativehome. ConservativeHome, 24/03/2015, diversity inparliament’, Labour’s monopolyonethnic Conservatives are breaking 100. SunderKatwala, ‘The 99.Crossley, 2014 cant-just-appeal-its-heartlands english-marginal-seats-its-peril-it- politics/2014/11/labour-neglects- www.newstatesman.com/ Staggers, 25/11/2014,http:// appeal to its “heartlands”’, The seats at–itcan’t itsperil just Englishmarginalneglects 98. Patrick Diamond, ‘Labour election-europe-immigration co.uk/features/labour-voters- http://www.prospectmagazine. voters’, Prospect, November 2012, 97. Peter Kellner, ‘Labour’s lost www.policy-network.net

policy network paper do to adapt the Conservatives to cosmopolitan Britain. The party’s to-do list includes the following: the list includes to-do party’s The Britain. to cosmopolitan to Conservatives do the adapt and his eventual successor, else, can or someone May, Osborne it Theresa be George Johnson, Boris he that much is There Davis. David under been have would it where than21st the century in be to needs it where to closer much party the moved it but incomplete, be may project modernisation Cameron’s David hopeful. be to reasons have ToriesYet problem. a is this mainstream, becoming iscountry more becoming more non-white, urban and when the values of Y Generation are steadily the when time a At old. and rural white, disproportionately are supporters Its party. Conservative the from soul-searching some require obviously most paper this in described developments The party Conservative The • • •

21 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 show that it can help them get on: acquire skills, find a well-paying job and own a home. a and own job on: a acquirefind well-paying get skills, them show help that can it form and substance) its ispolitics and open, youth-focused cosmopolitan. Most of all, it must they areabove, insufficient.alone but ensuremust Labour that (in totheseappeal To voters, discussed werethis doing of means electorate).Some total the to voters Labour-supporting aged 18-24 to the national voters average of could that add as many(lifting as majority 2 million a of these winning disproportionately of prospects its improve drastically would ballots their cast to propensity their raising voters, younger among advantage structural its retains party the If change. Britain’scosmopolitan to adapt to Labour help best would that mission Youth turnout, youth turnout, youth turnout. The above measures should all serve the one knocking. door some with candidates local their even will help people time, those election come perhaps, knows; who And campaigning. issue-specific into energy their channeling themes, specific in interested supporters Labour engage and coordinate to or level national regional a at work could These prefer. they if parties, issue-based constituency join than to rather members groups, new enable should party the So inevitable. also is it extent some to but reversible, cases some in even and regrettable, be may That neighbourhood. their to allegiance little owe some Britain, churning today’s In live. they where to area the in supporters) (or candidates members party electing become to commitment blanket a to as than rather cause, wish specific a pursue may some that election. accept the should before it doing Second, already were candidates proactive most its as and organisations, individuals affiliated formally not but associated with links build and primaries more hold should party the So races. electoral specific in and causes, international campaigns, and national local on party the with work to happy are members become to unwilling are Many who network. supporter its couldit build this. First, things about could two do Labour dangerous. is approach top-down this causes, such to adherence voters’ on less ever count can parties when time a at But thing. one diversions),was alternativethis fewer had frankly, (and, causes monolithic big, to themselves devote to happy were people When envelopes. deliver or stuff to instruction an and tea of cup a or, best, at meeting, committee lifeless a in process debating old-timers is party the of experience first the joiners, new some For time. its of mores the to adapt to more does it unless voters, urban young, among strength its to on hang to hope cannot party Labour The century. 21st the into structures party Drag it. willelse attack someone flank, cosmopolitan its nurtures and protects Labour Unless middle-class. urban the of party green European-style moderate, a become done manyLabour favours by erring towards their own radical wing, could yet see sense and The Liberal Democrats could yet reinvent themselves as such party. an Theoutfit. insurgentGreens, who have savvy, a by appropriation to vulnerable as just are places, minority and ethnic urban young, strongholds, other party’s the Yet that. in truth much is There granted. took them of for England areLabour turning tobecause parts the SNP and respectively Ukip Fear the ‘cosmopolitan party’. It is often said that voters in Scotland and ageing, blue-collar www.policy-network.net

policy network paper • • • •

22 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 footholds. In light of Britain’s demographic and social trends, Osborne’s enthusiasm for the the investments. long-term for wisest his of as party’s one may cities seen to come be enthusiasmnorthern Osborne’s trends, social and demographic Britain’s of light In footholds. metropolitan Tories with the provide yet may referenda, in rejected initially Mayoralties, there. set their own courses and can create a constituency for a pro-business, fiscallyprudent approach to them trust they thatshow both can power, Conservatives more the cities the giving By take. Tories should the route the to precisely points Exchange, Policy of director former the O’Brien, Neil aide his by championed metropolises, northern the of) integration (andthe to devolution have success case, the as to Osborne’son Johnson’sshows. recent be focus in London electoral have Premiership League teams, of which there are 20, in their constituency). their in 20, are there which of teams, 2012 League Premiership have MPs in Conservative two only Lights, that out (pointing Northern party the Exchange, for areas” Policy “no-go as by these described report obviously excellent most An things cities. those Britain’s where out: places play the in poorly remarkably do Conservatives the of For the the cities. Become of supposedly party a aspiration party and economic dynamism, Tory agenda. compassionate, amore promote toand one-nation develop Exchange, Policy of director deputy former a Skelton, David by launched one Renewal, and conservatism, liberal pushing group ginger a Blue, Bright both to look should party the this, on guidance For can be just as moderate, optimistic and, most of all, in comfortable modern Britain as can Labour. that Conservatives sense the it: of best the retaining without not but project, Cameron early the parliament. As the new government Conservative to gets then, it work, should avoid the flawsof today). They party simply lacked his a living-standards element, embarrass a gap so that Ed that Miliband exploited stunts in counter-intuitive the last the conducting was he when years the in toattempts hiswere detoxify entirely party sensible, and not Cameron’sunsuccessful (his soared accurate.popularity partly only is this Yet Britain.” of government the join to invitation styled “an asmanifesto society big clever-clever a with crisis economic an of midst the in won have should if that election an into went party the when apart fell project the view this Accordingto director. strategy blue-collar hardly but cerebral, hippyish, leader’s then-opposition the Hilton, Steve by influenced heavily too wonkish, too metropolitan, too was said, is Hill it modernisation’,‘Notting This party. authoritarian an was his that sense the combat toof talk hoodies” his “hugging to credentials environmentalist his prove to Arctic the to trip his from leadership party: Cameron’s the of of years early the at cringe Tories Many modernisation. ditch not Do seats.” Thus Michael Ashcroft introduced a study of the matter, Degrees of Separation, in 2012. Separation, of Degrees matter, the of study a introduced Ashcroft Michael Thus seats.” voters. minority ethnic among performance party’s your improve to priority top your it Make minority voters).minority ethnic among cent per 40 by party his out-performs Johnson Crosby,Lynton to according (indeed, of the country young parts in liberal, performance poor his party’s about inevitable Learn from Boris. The mayor’s two election victories in the capital show that there is nothing get usto intotime unpick.” get take will It along this mess. to years taken has “It adviser. the added dramatically, appeal its increase to fails it if threat” or beyond will not just squeeze majorities but crush the party.” faces The party an “existential senior Tory adviser told the Guardian: “Securing 16 one per cent As of this becoming. growing is vote in Britain 2020,that 2025 country the likes it that show to changes substantive and gestures bold makeand immigration on some language its moderate to further: go it needs Tories).are seven But MPs, ethnic-minority elected 16 newly the (of achievements proudest number of ethnic minority Conservative MPs and candidates should count among the party’s so quickly, it. To that should terrify fair,be Tories in havethe the boom forward: made strides much, so growing voteis minority the which in country a In white. not are they that is party 103 In fact, the single trait that most reliably predicts that someone will not vote for the the for vote not will someone that predicts reliably most that trait single the fact, In “Bluntly, the Conservative party’s problem with ethnic minority voters is costing it it costing is voters minority ethnic with problem party’s Conservative the “Bluntly, 105

104 106 That does not not does That

attitudes-in-britain-today. and-the-geography-of-political- northern-lights-public-policy- publications/category/item/ www.policyexchange.org.uk/ Exchange, 27/04/2012,http:// of Political Attitudes, Policy Policy andtheGeography Wells, Lights: Public Northern andAnthony106. NeilO’Brien party-2010.html Caribbean-Africans-support- finds-collapse-numbers-Indian- voters-abandon-Labour-Poll- article-2886649/Ethnic-minority- http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ 2010’, DailyMail, 24/12/2014, since theparty who support Caribbean andAfricans Indian, Poll finds collapse innumbersof voters minority abandonLabour: Crossley,105. Lucy ‘Ethnic minority-appeal david-cameron-tories-ethnic- commentisfree/2014/aug/17/ http://www.theguardian.com/ The Observer, 17/08/2014, appeal’,by theirlack ofminority ‘The Tories’ future isthreatened Asthana,104. Cited inAnushka Ashcroft Polls, 2012 April and theConservative Party, Lord Separation: Ethnic Minority Voters Ashcroft, Degrees103. Michael of www.policy-network.net

policy network paper mongrel, messy island-people is turning outwards to face the waves. And where, despite the the despite where, And waves. the face to thing. good balance itthoroughly –aparadoxes, on is all – and difficulties and contradictions outwards turning is island-people messy mongrel, and atomised, where cities are gobbling up investment, fields, towns and suburbs,where a churning, interdependent, more more narcissistic and and less judgmental, themselves where their unto lives more are more electronic, attached, personalised, consumerist less and entangled more are citizens where country a in home at – increasingly its on, goes and time as past and, – Britain’s proudly being bridge while allto present, them for take will it what is subjectivity constructive willing, That connect. and empathise nowto than crucial ever: articulate, are more but its most essential. toThey need do things taken too often for granted, or mocked as shallow artifice, and tone and mood at politics is indeed politics, with colour,and vision about human ineffable and that with which is tactile, shift cosmopolitan great the to respond to need politicians all, above But does. country the as change will else much and policy economic policy, foreign policy, social immigration, of politics the Yes, adjustments. technocratic and policies hard than more demands just not change this that did process, 2012 the in demonstrated, in also It going. is ceremony Britain which in direction opening the point Olympic The paper. this of implications long-term the about seriously think willing to politicians and parties help might that observation final one is Here have avoice. ensuring that and Britonsall of sorts future and present past, country’s the on perspectives different representing distinct, and themselves are that parties without weaker be would politics British favours. no politicians does Inauthenticity right. is That values. and traditions which will act in which way. Each, if it chooses to adapt, will need to do so in ways stage thisthatat predict to drawhard is It it. against on themselves position will its others so, do own will Some change. Britain’s with cosmopolitan keeping in agenda an develop to itself within it has party each short, In business. of out party the put to eventually expect might one that change demographic of period a beyond and throughout force political significant a remaining and emerging elements, conservative socially nationalist, its of some of shorn Ukip, libertarian truly a imagine to possible entirely is It immigration. like things on views comrades’ new his of some about uncomfortable former distinctly looked has who free-thinking Conservative the Carswell, Douglas and members younger its of some in expressed best anti-cosmopolitan party, can adapt to a changing Britain. The hasparty a significant libertarian seam, the centrist economically but socially liberal centre ground. Even Ukip, currently the most obviously intowell appeal their extend and modernise to need ‘cosmopolitanparty’, future a of kernel the to has Britain the closest though Greens, instead. The identity their liberal honing they now should try outfit, ‘split-the-difference’ a parties, main two the of excesses the in rein to party the as abysmally failed Having cosmopolitanism. natural their “weaponise” to more do could Democrats Liberal the toapply variously broad suggestions too.These the Toother parties, that the extent they possess it, •

23 |Britain’s cosmopolitan future: ischanging andwhy How thecountry itspoliticiansmustrespond |Jeremy CliffeMay | 2015 finding themselves completely on the margins.” on the completely themselves finding unless happen we that. didn’tabout do They something and then they were, all of a sudden, Now, it took 20 years to get there, but was everyone saying at the time: this is what’s going to structure. power the of out locked completely They’re more. any there elections statewide they have less than in one-third the California House of Representatives and they cannot win where situation a in they’re now and vote Latino the of chunk significant a capture to able on the were firmly of all of And as“anti” side that. a resultRepublicans havethey been never in the 1980s and ethnic diversity migration to changes from the California and 1990s started big the when but board, the across Republican was it 1960s the in California at looked you “If out: points Ford As California. of party Republican tothe is it change, Britain’scosmopolitan adapt to fails that party Conservative a of foretaste a is there If California. Remember 107 107. Cliffe and Proctor, 2015 www.policy-network.net

policy network paper