The only (other) poll that matters? Exit Polls and Election Night Forecasts in BBC General Election Results Broadcasts, 1955-2017. Authors Stuart Wilks-Heeg, Reader in Politics, University of Liverpool,
[email protected]. Peter Andersen, PhD student, University of Liverpool,
[email protected]. Funding declaration The research for the paper was partially supported by a North West Doctoral Training Centre studentship. Declaration of conflicting interests None. Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Isla Glaister of Sky News for providing historical information about the seat forecasts used in BBC election night broadcasts. We would also like to thank the two anonymous referees for their very helpful comments on our original submission. 1 Abstract This paper examines the role of results forecasts and exit polls in BBC general election night broadcasts from 1955 to 2017. Despite the substantial role played by academics in results programmes, in devising forecasts and analysing results as they emerge, academic literature on election night broadcasts is scant. This paper charts the development of election night forecasting over time and its implications for the structure and content of election night broadcasts. It draws on a unique new data set of verbatim transcripts of the first hour of every BBC election night broadcast from 1955-2017 to quantify the attention paid to forecasts and exit polls and assess how they frame discussion of the likely outcome and its potential political consequences. The paper concludes that the function of election night broadcasts as ‘the first draft of psephology’ merits closer attention for both the political narratives and the academic research agendas they generate.