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Access to Clean Cooking Technologies in Uganda: Model Analysis Based on Empirical Data

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Access to Clean Cooking Technologies in Uganda: Model Analysis Based on Empirical Data Die approbierte Originalversion dieser Dissertation ist in der Hauptbibliothek der Technischen Universität Wien aufgestellt und zugänglich. http://www.ub.tuwien.ac.at The approved original version of this thesis is available at the main library of the Vienna University of Technology. http://www.ub.tuwien.ac.at/eng Access to clean cooking technologies in Uganda: Model analysis based on empirical data ausgeführt zum Zweck der Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der technischen Wissenschaften Yu Nagai Fakultät für Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik Technische Universität Wien Betreuer: Univ.Prof. i.R. Dr. Dr.h.c. Nebojša Nakićenović Prüfer: Dr. Keywan Riahi Prüfer: Univ.Prof. Dr. Reinhard Haas Wien, April 2017 Abstract Energy deeply influences people’s lives and is an engine for social development and economic growth. Limited access to energy, and therefore energy services, contributes significantly to poverty. In sub‐Saharan Africa, in spite of growing economies, the rate of those gaining access to clean cooking technologies (e.g. cooking with modern fuels) continues to be outpaced by population growth. In energy transition evaluations, models are often developed to analyse scenarios and pathways. However, because most energy models are designed in industrialised countries that have long overcome the energy access issue, the transition mechanisms from biomass fuels to modern fuels in cooking, a crucial step in energy access development, are often been overlooked in energy models. The core objective of this thesis is to answer the following question: How can the determinants of household cooking technology choices be modelled, especially in Uganda, such that the choices made by heterogeneous consumers can be better represented, and the model results be used to quantitatively assess policies to achieve universal access to clean cooking technologies and the impacts of climate change policies? In order to answer this question, a cooking technology choice model was developed, which generates cooking choice demand curves using the concept of revealed preference for household groups of different income levels and locations. The model contributes to filling the gap between existing cooking models and cooking situations in developing countries by adding consumer heterogeneity and cooking technology choice, reflecting both fuel and stove preferences in cooking energy transition analyses. Analyses performed using the model indicate that with a combination of support to purchase modern fuels and clean stoves, universal access to clean cooking technologies in Uganda can be achieved by 2030. If the amount of support is provided based on the level of consumers’ needs, universal access can be achieved for 8.14 billion USD, or about 550 million USD per year over 15 years. However, if a climate change policy limiting emissions is also implemented, increasing the price of LPG in Uganda by 0.23 USD/kg, the same policy would only achieve an access rate of 64%. Replacing the current technology of earth kiln by casamance kiln could reduce yearly firewood consumption in Uganda from 84 million tonnes to 52 million tonnes in 2030. Given this, it is recommended for Uganda to prioritise policies for improving charcoal production technology over policies increasing fossil fuel prices, which can limit deforestation and impacts on climate change without hindering cooking energy transition. i Kurzfassung Der begrenzte Zugang zu Energie und damit Energiedienstleistungen trägt wesentlich zur Armut bei. Energie beeinflusst das Leben der Menschen tiefgreifend und ist ein Motor für soziale Entwicklung und Wirtschaftswachstum. Trotz wachsender Volkswirtschaften in Afrika südlich der Sahara wird die Rate derjenigen, die Zugang zu sauberen Kochtechniken erhalten (z. B. Kochen mit modernen Brennstoffen), weiterhin durch die Rate des Bevölkerungswachstums übertroffen. Zur Bewertung von Energiesystemwandel werden häufig Modelle herangezogen, um Szenarien und Entwicklungspfade zu analysieren. Allerdings sind die meisten Energiemodelle für Analysen in Industrieländern konzipiert und betrachten deshalb implizit nur die Arten von Energiebedarf und Entscheidungen in diesen Regionen. Weil in den Industrieländer die Energiezugangsfrage längst gelöst ist, wurden die Übergangsmechanismen von Biomasse zu modernen Brennstoffen zum Kochen oft in Energiemodellen nicht berücksichtigt. Die zentrale Frage dieser Arbeit ist nun, wie die Determinanten des Einsatzes von Haushaltskochgeräte mit einem Fokus auf Uganda, modellmäßig so erfasst werden können, so dass die Entscheidungen von heterogenen Verbrauchern besser abgebildet werden können und die Modellergebnisse zur qunatitativen Bewertung über Zugang zu sauberen Kochtechnologien und die Auswirkungen von Klimapolitik herangezogen werden können? Um diese Frage zu beantworten, wurde ein Kochgeräteeinsatzmodell entwickelt, das basierend auf dem Konzept der offenbarten Präferenzen für Haushaltsgruppen unterschiedlicher Einkommensstufen und Standorte Kochgeräte‐Nachfragekurven erzeugt. Das Modell trägt dazu bei, die Diskrepanz zwischen bestehenden Kochgeräteeinsatzmodellen und realen Kochsituationen in den Entwicklungsländern zu reduzieren, indem es die Heterogenität von Verbraucher und die Kochgeräten, sowohl in Bezug auf Brennstoff‐ als auch auf Herdpräferenzen bei der Analyse von Energiesystemwandel besser widerspiegelt. Analysen, die mit dem Modell durchgeführt wurden, zeigen auf, dass mit einer Kombination von Unterstützung für den Kauf moderner Brennstoffe und sauberer Öfen der Zugang aller Menschen zu sauberen Kochtechniken in Uganda bis 2030 erreicht werden kann. Wenn die Höhe der Unterstützung sich auf der Grundlage der Bedürfnisse der Verbraucher berechnet, kann Zugang für alle Menschen für 8,14 Milliarden USD oder rund 550 Millionen USD pro Jahr über 15 Jahre erreicht werden. Auf der anderen Seite, wenn eine Klimapolitik den Preis von LPG in Uganda um 0,23 USD/kg erhöht, würde eine Zugangspolitik, die zuvor einen Zugang für alle Menschen erreicht hätte, nur eine Zugangsrate von 64% erreichen. Daher empfiehlt es sich, eine Politik zur Verbesserung ii der Holzkohleproduktionstechnologie in Uganda anstatt einer Politik, die die Preise für fossile Brennstoffe addressiert, umzusetzen. Wenn die derzeitige Technologie des Erdofens durch Casamance ersetzt wird, kann der jährliche Verbrauch von Brennholz in Uganda im Jahr 2030 von 84 Millionen Tonnen auf 52 Millionen Tonnen reduziert werden, was den Umweltschutz unterstützt, ohne den Übergang zu modernen Kochgerätenzu behindern. iii Acknowledgements This dissertation could not have been completed without the great support that I have received from so many people over the years. First, I would like to express my great appreciation for my advisor Univ.Prof. i.R. Dr. Dr.h.c. Nebojša Nakićenović for his support throughout this dissertation and for his patience, motivation and immense knowledge. Without his guidance and persistent help this dissertation would not have been possible. I would like to thank my committee members, Dr. Keywan Riahi, Univ.Prof. Dipl.Ing. Dr. Reinhard Haas and Univ.‐Prof. Dipl.‐Ing. Dr. Arnulf Grübler for their encouragements and helpful inputs. I wish to offer many thanks to the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for giving me an opportunity to conduct a part of my research at the institute. I express my heartfelt gratitude to Dr. Shonali Pachauri, Mr. Mathis Rogner, Dr. Shilpa Rao, Dr. Narasimha Rao, Dr. Sebastian Busch, Mr. Peter Kolp, Ms. Pat Wagner and all my colleagues in ENE and TNT groups, for supporting me through the research and providing me countless recommendations and suggestions to improve the quality of my work. You have not only been brilliant advisors and collaborators but also wonderful friends. My appreciation goes also to Dr. Kenneth Arinaitwe and Mr. Godfrey Muhwezi at the Center for Integrated Research and Community Development Uganda (CIRCODU) for generously offering me feedback and support of this dissertation. Lastly, I would like to thank my family for all their love and encouragement. For my parents and sisters who have supported me through this exciting and challenging journey. And most of all I give my sincere appreciation to my loving, supportive, encouraging, and patient wife Yui, whose support during the final stages of this dissertation is so appreciated. Thank you. iv Table of Contents Chapter 1. Introduction ........................................................................... 4 1.1 Motivation .......................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Aim of the dissertation ....................................................................................... 6 1.3 Thesis structure .................................................................................................. 7 Chapter 2. Biomass and development ..................................................... 8 2.1 Biomass consumption and poverty .................................................................... 8 2.2 Vicious cycle of biomass use .............................................................................. 9 2.3 Biomass combustion and health ...................................................................... 10 2.4 Environmental issues........................................................................................ 11 2.5 Cooking technology choices ............................................................................. 13 Chapter
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