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Press Release PRESS RELEASE Peter MacKay Benefits from Greater Name Recognition to Establish Early Dominance in Race to Lead Conservative Party Four in Ten (40%) Canadians would Consider Voting Tory with MacKay at the Helm, while Fewer Would Consider Voting for Party Led by Gladu (31%), O’Toole (31%) or Sloan (29%) Toronto, ON, February 4, 2020 — If the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada was awarded based on name recognition among the general population alone, Peter Mackay would waltz to an easy victory. But Conservative Party members may have different selection criteria when they vote for their leader on June 27th in Toronto. This is what makes predicting the outcome of leadership contests notoriously difficult to do. According to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News, more Canadians – both current Conservative voters and voters who would vote for other parties – would consider voting Conservative in the next election if the party were led by Peter MacKay than any of the other declared candidates. • Four in ten (40%) would be likely (15% strongly/25% somewhat) to consider voting Conservative if Peter MacKay were leader, while 29% wouldn’t be very likely and 31% would never vote for the Conservatives if led by him. • One in three (31%) would be likely (8% very/23% somewhat) to consider voting Conservative if Erin O’Toole were leader, while 38% wouldn’t be very likely and 31% would never vote for the Conservatives if led by him. • Similar proportions (31%) would be likely (8% very/23% somewhat) to consider voting Conservative if Marilyn Gladu were leader, while 36% wouldn’t be very likely and 33% would never vote for the Conservatives if led by her. • Three in ten (29%) would be likely (7% very/22% somewhat) to consider voting Conservative if Derek Sloan were leader, while 37% wouldn’t be very likely and 34% would never vote for the Conservatives if led by Derek Sloan. Among current Conservative voters, Peter MacKay (84%) has the highest vote consideration in the next federal election, ahead of O’Toole (73%), Gladu (69%) and Sloan (67%). Peter MacKay also bests his rivals in consideration among current Liberal (31%), NDP (27%) and Bloc (22%) voters, with a double-digit lead in consideration over his other rivals in most cases. At this early stage in the leadership race, it appears that Peter MacKay has the greater ability to attract new voters into the Tory camp. 160 Bloor Street East, Suite 300 Contact: Darrell Bricker, PhD Toronto, ON M4W 1B9 CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs +1 416 324-2900 Email: [email protected] Tel: +1 416 324-2001 PRESS RELEASE His present lead is largely a function of stronger name recognition than that of other leadership contestants. Moreover, Peter MacKay is the only leadership hopeful who has made a net-favourable impact on Canadians and Conservatives. The chart below demonstrates the percentage of Canadians favourable towards each candidate, unfavourable, and the percentage who don’t know enough about each candidate to have an informed opinion either way. Impressions among all Canadians % don’t know enough Leadership Contestant % favourable % unfavourable about them to have an informed opinion Peter MacKay 30% 17% 53% Erin O’Toole 11% 13% 77% Marilyn Gladu 8% 13% 79% Derek Sloan 7% 12% 81% Impressions among Conservative voters % don’t know enough Leadership Contestant % favourable % unfavourable about them to have an informed opinion Peter MacKay 47% 11% 42% Erin O’Toole 13% 12% 75% Marilyn Gladu 9% 11% 80% Derek Sloan 7% 8% 85% For O’Toole, Gladu, and Sloan, they haven’t made much more of an impression among Tory voters than the general population. But for Peter MacMay, favourable to unfavourable impressions among the general population are 2:1, and 4:1 among Conservative voters. 160 Bloor Street East, Suite 300 Contact: Darrell Bricker, PhD Toronto, ON M4W 1B9 CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs +1 416 324-2900 Email: [email protected] Tel: +1 416 324-2001 PRESS RELEASE About the Study These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between January 24th and 27th, 2020, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. For more information on this news release, please contact: Darrell Bricker, PhD CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs +1 416 324-2001 [email protected] About Ipsos Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people. Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi- specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD). ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com 160 Bloor Street East, Suite 300 Contact: Darrell Bricker, PhD Toronto, ON M4W 1B9 CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs +1 416 324-2900 Email: [email protected] Tel: +1 416 324-2001 .
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