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ADRS Model.Xlsx July 29, 2016 Tourism and insurance Company Rating (common and preferred shares) Adris Grupa Under review All segments delivered strong numbers Reuters: ADGR.ZA (ADGR_p.ZA) Bloomberg: ADRSRA CZ (ADRSPA CZ) ZSE: ADRS-R-A (ADRS-P-A) Adris' (ADRS) top line was cut by 27.9% yoy in 2Q16 to HRK985m, while overall sales in 1H16 fell by 28.7% yoy as TDR dropped out of Adris’ COMMON SHARES financials from 4Q15 onwards. As the company had these M&A Last price (HRK) 552 activities on both buy and sell sides last year, comparability is Price target (HRK) N/A limited. Nevertheless, all the three strategic business segments Previous target (HRK) N/A recorded positive performance in 1H16. Adris’ tourist arm Maistra saw 12-month range (HRK) 459-584 6.1% yoy higher sales in 1H16 thanks to 8% yoy higher ADR, despite 12-month volatility 29% tourist overnights down by 3%. Another strong tourist season is Free float 50% expected as current booking implies positive trends and ADR growth, mostly on the back of investments (HRK400m in 2016) in hotels in PREFERRED SHARES camps. Fish production segment (Cromaris) recorded 11% yoy higher Last price (HRK) 402 sales volumes in 1H16which along with 6% yoy higher average fish Price target (HRK) N/A prices led to 18% yoy higher top line. Meanwhile, export grew by 16% Previous target (HRK) N/A and is still the foot-hold of Cromaris’ business model as 80% of total 12-month range (HRK) 329-435 sales are exported mainly to Italy. Finally, insurance business Croatia 12-month volatility 22% Osiguranje delivered 0.7% yoy higher GWP of HRK1.8bn on the back of Free float 82% health insurance along with positive effects after the first phase of restructuring finished. At the same time, CO managed to maintain Total market capitalization (HRKm) 8.035 leading position in the Croatian insurance market with 0.4pp qoq higher market share of 32.9%. However, further price war in motor insurance segment is a major downside risk on financial results. Stock price performance 800 7000 ADRS -P-A (HRK, lhs) All said, recent M&A activities helped profitability as EBITDA improved 700 6000 ADRS -R-A (HRK, lhs) 600 by 12.2% yoy to HRK287m in 2Q16 while EBITDA margin went up by CROBEX (rhs) 5000 500 5.8pp to 21.9%. These numbers are easily translated in 1H16 figures as 4000 400 EBITDA soared 17.7% yoy which led to 5.1pp improvement in EBITDA 3000 300 2000 margin that stands at 14.2%. Finally, positive financial result of 200 HRK45m helped the net profit that managed to stay around last year’s 100 1000 Source: ZSE, HAAB Research level of HRK151m despite TDR sale. Finally, net profit managed to 0 0 Jan -07 May -09 Sep -11 Jan -14 May -16 stay around last year’s level of HRK151m despite TDR sale. Looking more closely at Adris unconsolidated financial reports we see cca HRK100m (+73.8% yoy) yoy higher other revenues implying this one-off largely helped net profit. Quarterly profits (HRKm) 400 EBITDA Source: Company data, HAAB Research Looking ahead, in the next three years Adris is planning to invest HRK 300 EBIT 4bn in tourism, health food and regionalization of insurance business. 200 All in all, we keep our target price and recommendation UNDER 100 0 REVIEW given the needed adjustments to the model after BAT’s -100 acquisition of TDR and inclusion of CO and due to changes of analyst -200 and development of new valuation model. -300 -400 -500 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 Hrvoje Stojić Analyst (+385) 1 603 0509 [email protected] SEE THE DISCLOSURES APPENDIX FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION July 29, 2016 Adris Grupa Quarterly Income Statement HRKm 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 All segments delivered strong numbers 594 482 695 1.026 511 447 1.141 1.710 1.152 1.138 1.366 1.791 863 801 985 Other revenues 33 12 23 22 35 23 111 145 175 201 220 110 192 90 325 Operating revenues 626 494 718 1.048 546 469 1.252 1.856 1.327 1.338 1.586 1.901 1.055 891 1.311 Operating expenses -533 -438 -561 -675 -522 -434 -1.093 -1.563 -1.520 -1.333 -1.326 -2.264 -1.300 -868 -1.026 EBITDA 91 56 158 373 32 35 164 298 -127 9 256 -354 -186 25 287 Depreciation -191 -96 -94 -92 -79 -70 -79 -84 -85 -82 -84 -86 -106 -71 -70 EBIT -100 -40 64 281 -47 -35 85 214 -212 -73 172 -440 -292 -47 217 Net financial result 106 87 -3 97 30 74 82 174 92 124 0 2.996 -497 -32 77 Associates & extraordinaries 20 0 0 0 23 0 2 3 22 3 4 3 -10 3 3 Pre-tax profit 28 47 61 378 -2 39 164 385 -164 49 180 2.551 -859 -77 294 Tax 22 -42 -28 -28 -1 -27 -21 -23 -2 -31 -49 125 -572 0 -66 Net profit 50 5 33 350 -3 12 143 362 -166 19 131 2.676 -1.431 -77 228 Growth (%, yoy) 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Sales n/a -0,8 -5,8 -3,3 -14,0 -7,3 64,1 66,6 125,6 154,7 19,7 4,7 -25,1 -29,6 -27,9 Other revenues n/a -37,5 1,4 -8,9 8,5 87,1 382,1 571,4 395,3 778,1 97,8 -24,2 9,5 -55,1 47,6 Operating revenues n/a -2,2 -5,6 -3,4 -12,8 -5,0 74,3 77,0 143,1 185,1 26,7 2,5 -20,5 -33,4 -17,4 Operating expenses n/a 2,7 -7,8 -3,5 2,1 0,8 -94,9 -131,7 -191,0 -207,0 -21,4 -44,8 14,5 34,9 22,6 EBITDA n/a -28,9 3,4 -3,1 -65,2 -37,7 4,2 -20,3 -499,6 -74,3 55,9 -218,9 -46,7 172,7 12 Depreciation n/a 48,5 43,4 33,1 58,7 27,4 15,4 9,0 -7,2 -17,6 -5,4 -3,0 -25,2 13,4 15,9 EBIT n/a -372,0 -26,7 -11,0 52,7 12,7 33,0 -24,0 -347,4 -110,6 103,1 -305,7 -38,1 36,4 26 Net income n/a -82,4 -68,0 9,3 -71,6 -14,7 3.378 78,7 204,5 67,0 -100,0 1.625 -642,6 -125,5 n/a Profitability (%, ttm) 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 EBITDA margin 23,8 23,2 23,7 23,6 21,8 21,2 17,8 12,4 6,0 4,6 6,0 n/a -5,8 -6,0 -5,8 EBIT margin 10,7 8,9 8,3 7,2 8,9 9,2 8,2 4,8 -0,5 -1,1 0,5 n/a -11,9 -12,4 -12,3 Net profit 16,9 16,2 14,0 15,2 13,7 14,1 15,2 12,5 7,2 6,2 5,7 43,2 23,7 23,9 27,1 ROA 5,6 5,3 4,5 4,7 4,1 4,2 4,5 4,0 2,4 2,2 1,9 14,3 7,4 6,8 7,2 ROE 6,8 6,4 5,4 5,7 5,0 5,0 6,3 6,2 4,1 4,1 3,8 28,1 14,6 13,5 14,3 Leverage (ttm) 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Assets/Equity 1,2 1,2 1,3 1,2 1,2 1,2 2,0 1,9 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,9 2,0 2,0 2,0 Net debt/Equity 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 -0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Net debt/EBITDA 0,5 0,4 1,0 0,7 0,6 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,6 1,0 0,0 14,0 0,0 0,2 -1,3 Valuation (ttm) 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 P/S 1,0 1,1 1,1 1,0 1,1 1,0 0,9 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,9 0,8 1,0 1,0 1,1 P/EBITDA 3,9 4,5 4,5 4,0 4,9 4,5 4,9 6,9 12,1 14,6 12,6 -15,2 -15,4 -15,2 -16,5 P/EBIT 8,6 11,7 13,0 13,3 11,9 10,4 10,6 17,6 n/a n/a 154,5 n/a n/a n/a n/a P/E 5,4 6,5 7,7 6,3 7,7 6,7 5,7 6,8 10,1 10,8 13,3 1,7 3,8 3,8 3,6 P/B 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,5 EV/Sales 1,1 1,2 1,4 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,0 1,0 0,8 0,8 0,9 0,1 1,0 1,0 1,2 EV/EBITDA 4,3 5,0 5,5 4,8 5,5 5,1 5,3 7,2 12,7 15,6 12,6 -1,2 -15,4 -15,0 -17,8 EV/EBIT 9,7 12,9 15,9 15,6 13,4 11,7 11,7 18,5 n/a n/a 154,3 n/a n/a n/a n/a Source: unaudited financial reports, HAAB research Page 2 July 29, 2016 Adris Grupa FY Financial Statements Income Statement (HRKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sales 2.879 2.714 4.462 5.158 Other revenues 99 92 426 723 Operating revenues 2.977 2.807 4.889 5.881 Operating expenses -2.268 -2.196 -4.610 -6.224 EBITDA 710 611 279 -343 Depreciation -391 -361 -351 -358 EBIT 319 250 -72 -702 Net financial result 259 212 410 2.623 Associates & extraordinaries 20 23 26 0 Pre-tax profit 599 485 365 1.921 Tax -95 -99 -43 -527 Net profit 504 386 322 1.394 Balance Sheet (HRKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Cash 61 46 221 167 Inventories 694 832 821 368 Accounts receivable 377 362 977 595 Intangible assets 162 169 1.040 873 Property, plant and equipment 3.010 2.971 4.105 3.394 Other assets 4.652 5.133 10.889 13.789 Total assets 8.956 9.512 18.054 19.185 Accounts payable 317 198 243 139 Short-term debt 333 336 259 29 Long-term debt 70 78 143 132 Equity 7.668 7.898 9.254 9.639 Net debt 343 368 180 -5 Cash Flow Statement (HRKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Operating cash flow 309 627 704 3.892 Net capital expenditures -334 -421 -353 -615 Net increase in debt -3 19 -107 141 Dividends paid -112 -101 -128 -954 Other investing/financing cash flow 43 -139 191 4.078 Net cash flow -97 -15 308 6.541 Change in working capital -528 -221 7.481 -6.597 Growth (%) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sales 64,1 -5,7 64,4 15,6 EBITDA 325,1 -13,9 -54,3 -223,1 EBIT n/a -21,8 -128,7 n/a Profitability (%) 2012 2013 2014 2015 EBITDA margin 23,8 21,8 5,7 -5,8 EBIT margin 10,7 8,9 -1,5 -11,9 Net profit 16,9 13,7 6,6 23,7 ROA 5,6 4,2 2,3 7,5 ROE 6,6 5,0 3,7 14,8 Leverage 2012 2013 2014 2015 Assets/Equity 1,2 1,2 2,0 2,0 Net debt/Equity 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Net debt/EBITDA 0,5 0,6 0,6 0,0 Source: unaudited financial reports, HAAB research Page 3 July 29, 2016 Disclosures Appendix The information and opinions in this report/investment research were prepared by Addiko Bank d.d.
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