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Hele Rapporten Og Dens Enkelte Deler Øystein Engebretsen Anne Gjerdåker TØI rapport 1057/2010 Regionforstørring: Lokale virkninger av transportinvesteringer TØI rapport 1057/2010 Regionforstørring: Lokale virkninger av transportinvesteringer Øystein Engebretsen og Anne Gjerdåker Transportøkonomisk institutt (TØI) har opphavsrett til hele rapporten og dens enkelte deler. Innholdet kan brukes som underlagsmateriale. Når rapporten siteres eller omtales, skal TØI oppgis som kilde med navn og rapport- nummer. Rapporten kan ikke endres. Ved eventuell annen bruk må forhåndssamtykke fra TØI innhentes. For øvrig gjelder åndsverklovens bestemmelser. ISSN 0808-1190 ISBN 978-82-480-1046-3 Papirversjon ISBN 978-82-480-1045-6 Elektronisk versjon Oslo, mars 2010 Tittel: Regionforstørring: Lokale virkninger av Title: Local labour market effects of transport investments transportinvesteringer Forfattere: Anne Gjerdåker Author(s): Anne Gjerdåker Øystein Engebretsen Øystein Engebretsen Dato: 03.2010 Date: 03.2010 TØI rapport: 1057/2010 TØI report: 1057/2010 Sider 105 Pages 105 ISBN Papir: 978-82-480-1046-3 ISBN Paper: 978-82-480-1046-3 ISBN Elektronisk: 978-82-480-1045-6 ISBN Electronic: 978-82-480-1045-6 ISSN 0808-1190 ISSN 0808-1190 Finansieringskilde: Samferdselsdepartementet Financed by: Ministry of Transport and Communications Prosjekt: 3448 - Regionforstørring: Etterprøving Project: 3448 av faktiske virkninger av infrastrukturinvesteri Prosjektleder: Anne Gjerdåker Project manager: Anne Gjerdåker Kvalitetsansvarlig: Jon Inge Lian Quality manager: Jon Inge Lian Emneord: Arbeidsmarked Key words: Commuting Infrastruktur Infrastructure investments Intercitytog Intercity trains Pendling Regional integration Regional integrasjon Sammendrag: Summary: Regionforstørring gjennom infrastrukturinvesteringer er et Improvements in infrastructure may facilitate commuting between viktig regionalpolitisk mål. Formålet er å skape et mer variert neighbouring regions, which in turn may stimulate the regional og effektivt arbeidsmarked, gjennom å bedre integration of local labour markets. In Norway, the average travel tilgjengeligheten. På nasjonalt nivå har gjennomsnittlig time to work has increased, which may be interpreted as a reiselengde til arbeid økt, med størst økning i regional integration of labour markets. The increase has been utkantkommunene. Vi har fått et mønster med mer pendling largest in the peripheral municipalities. Studies of three på kryss og tvers, som er et tegn på økt regional integrasjon. Norwegian infrastructure investments demonstrate how the Studier av Korgfjelltunnellen, Trekantsambandet og Rv5 investments have led to reduced travel time and increased (Førde-Florø) viser at infrastrukturinvesteringene har redusert commuting. This in turn results in a more varied and effective reisetiden og skapt større rekkevidde. Dette bidrar igjen til å labour market, providing greater opportunities for employment skape en større region med et bredere og mer variert and economic growth, and a better matching of skills. The arbeidsmarked, som gir økt fleksibilitet mht regional integration of labour markets may therefore ideally serve sysselsettingsmuligheter og bedrifters mulighet til å skaffe den three aims: reducing unemployment, improving access to labour, kompetanse de behøver. Opplevelsen av en større region and securing a decentralised settlement structure. med et bredere tilbud styrker et områdes attraktivitet når det gjelder bosetting og tilflytting. Ulempen er økt trafikk, og noen bedrifter vil også merke negative omfordelingseffekter av økt konkurranse. Language of report: Norwegian Transportøkonomisk Institutt Institute of Transport Economics Gaustadalleen 21, 0349 Oslo Gaustadalleen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway Telefon 22 57 38 00 - www.toi.no Telefon 22 57 38 00 - www.toi.no Copyright © Transportøkonomisk Institutt Denne publikasjonen er vernet i henhold til Åndsverkloven av 1961 Ved gjengivelse av materiale fra publikasjonen, må fullstendig kilde oppgis Forord Det er et mål innenfor regional- og samferdselspolitikken at veiutbygging mellom sentre og mellom senter og omland skal medvirke til regionforstørring. Hensikten med regionforstørring er å utvide og styrke lokale arbeidsmarkeder og tilgang på tjenester for befolkning og næringsliv. Formålet med dette prosjektet har vært å foreta en empirisk etterprøving av sammenhengen mellom regionforstørring og endringer i regionale tilpasninger. Prosjektet har tatt utgangspunkt i konkrete veiinvesteringer i tre regioner med ulik befolkningsstruktur, næringsstruktur og avstand til nærmeste regionale sentrum. Undersøkelsen har bestått av statistiske undersøkelser basert på detaljerte pendlingsdata og andre geodata, og kvalitative intervjuer med næringsliv og kommuner. Undersøkelsen inkluderer også en analyse av pendling langs intercitytog- strekningene på Østlandet. Prosjektet er finansiert av Samferdselsdepartementet. Anne Gjerdåker har vært prosjektleder. Øystein Engebretsen har gjennomført de statistiske undersøkelsene, og intervjuene er utført av Joachim Rønnevik og Anne Gjerdåker. Forskningsleder Jon Inge Lian har vært ansvarlig for kvalitetssikring av arbeidet, og Tove Ekstrøm har tilrettelagt rapporten for publisering. Intervjumaterialet utgjør en viktig del av rapporten, og vi retter en stor takk til alle som har latt seg intervjue i den forbindelse. Oslo, mars 2010 Transportøkonomisk institutt Lasse Fridstrøm Tone Haraldsen instituttsjef avdelingsleder Innhold Sammendrag Summary 1 Innledning ....................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Regionforstørring, pendling og arbeidsmarkeder .................................... 1 1.2 Metode og fokus for undersøkelsen ......................................................... 4 1.3 Innhold ..................................................................................................... 4 2 Regionforstørring og regional integrasjon .................................................. 6 2.1 Økning i pendlingsavstandene ................................................................. 6 2.2 Problemstillinger ...................................................................................... 9 2.3 Datagrunnlag .......................................................................................... 10 2.4 Pendlingsmodell ..................................................................................... 12 3 Trekantsambandet ....................................................................................... 16 3.1 Prosjektet og regionen ........................................................................... 16 3.2 Utvikling i befolkning, service og sysselsetting .................................... 19 3.3 Regional integrasjon (Økt pendling) ...................................................... 28 3.4 Regionforstørring ................................................................................... 30 3.5 Intervjuer avdekker stor betydning for enkeltbedrifter .......................... 38 3.6 Oppsummering ....................................................................................... 43 4 Rv 5 mellom Førde og Florø ....................................................................... 45 4.1 Prosjektet og regionen ........................................................................... 45 4.2 Utvikling i befolkning, service og sysselsetting .................................... 46 4.3 Økt pendling gir regionforstørring ......................................................... 52 4.4 Oppsummering ....................................................................................... 59 5 Korgfjelltunnelen ......................................................................................... 61 5.1 Prosjektet og regionen ........................................................................... 61 5.2 Utvikling i befolkning, service og sysselsetting .................................... 63 5.3 Regionforstørring og regional integrasjon ............................................. 66 5.4 Oppsummering ....................................................................................... 69 6 Intercitytogenes betydning for regional integrasjon på Østlandet ......... 71 6.1 Innledning .............................................................................................. 71 6.2 Lang dagpendling til Oslo ...................................................................... 72 6.3 Et mer fleksibelt arbeidsliv .................................................................... 75 6.4 Intercitytogenes betydning ..................................................................... 76 6.5 Oppsummering ....................................................................................... 81 7 Østfoldbanen og Fredrikstad ...................................................................... 82 7.1 Pendling og trafikk på Østfoldbanen ..................................................... 82 7.2 Flerkjernet bystruktur og arbeidsmarkedsinteraksjon ............................ 84 7.3 Areal- og transportplanlegging i Fredrikstad ......................................... 85 7.4 Knutepunkt og stasjonsnærhet ............................................................... 87 7.5 By- og eiendomsutvikling ...................................................................... 90 7.6 Pendling til Oslo eller etablering i Fredrikstad? .................................... 91 7.7 Miljøperspektiv: Tog som avlastning for biltrafikk ............................... 92 7.8 Oppsummering ......................................................................................
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