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Monthly Bulletin Department of Statistics and Economic Research January 2018 MMONTHLY BBULLETIN Number 284 HIGHLIGHTS (Percentages refer to year-on-year variations unless otherwise specified) The BDL coincident indicator reached 309.4 in January 2018, compared with 318.3 in the previous month and 297.2 in January 2017. The balance of payments posted during the month a surplus of USD 236.9 million. Year-on-year, the consolidated balance sheet of commercial banks rose by 8.9%, and the deposit dollarization rate stood at 68.4% at end-January. Bank interest rates increased on both USD and LBP debit and credit accounts. The balance of payments posted a surplus of USD 236.9 million in January 2018. This was reflected in an increase in the net foreign assets of Banque du Liban of USD 985.9 million, and a drop in those of banks and financial institutions of USD 749.0 million. It is to be noted that the BOP registered a surplus of USD 166.7 million in January 2017 and a cumulative deficit of USD 155.7 million for the year 2017. According to figures released by the Ministry of Finance, net total public debt went up in January 2018 by LBP 402 billion, totaling LBP 104,902 billion at the end of the month. This increase stems from a rise in both the LBP-denominated net public debt of LBP 123 billion to LBP 58,824 billion, and the foreign-currency- denominated public debt of USD 185 million to USD 30,566 million. Year-on-year, the net total public debt, the LBP-denominated debt and the foreign-currency-denominated debt grew by 6.5%, 5.1% and 8.4% respectively. Foreign-currency reserves of Banque du Liban reached USD 43,821.3 million at end-January 2018, with an annual increase of USD 811.3 million or 1.9%. Total foreign assets, including gold, totaled USD 56,208.8 million. The average US dollar exchange rate remained stable on the domestic market, standing at LBP 1,507.50. Interest rates remained unchanged in January 2018 on all categories of Treasury bills and bonds. Accordingly, at the end of the month, yields stood at: 4.44% on the three-month, 4.99% on the six-month, 5.35% on the one-year, 5.84% on the two-year, and 6.50% on the three-year. On the Lebanese pound, bank interest rates rose to 6.53% on credit accounts (+12 basis points) and to 8.56% on debit accounts (+47 basis points). On the US dollar, these rates registered the same movement. Accordingly, the USD weighted average lending rate reached 7.74% (+7 basis points), and the USD average deposit rate 3.91% (+2 basis points). The monetary aggregate M3 reached LBP 208,793.1 billion at end-January, rising annually by 4.23%, compared with 4.21% in December 2017. Bank credits to the private sector remained the main factor in money creation, along with credits to the public sector. Regarding money stock components, LBP-denominated deposits fell by 3.5%, while foreign-currency deposits expanded by 10.0%. The consolidated balance sheet of commercial banks reached LBP 335,548 billion in January 2018, with an annual rise of 8.9%, compared with 7.6% in December 2017. Resident and non-resident private sector deposits, as well as credits to the private sector, grew by 3.9% and 4.7%, respectively. The dollarization rate of bank deposits stood at 68.4%. Trade deficit deepened by 3.5% and totaled USD 1,421.8 million at end-January 2018, as imports and exports progressed by 6.3% and 23.5%, respectively, to USD 1,705.2 million and USD 283.4 million. Compared to January 2017, the volume of cement deliveries, indicator of the construction sector’s current activity, and the area of construction permits, indicator of its potential activity, shrank by 10.6% and 4.1%, respectively. Power production went up by 5.4% and reached 1,254.3 million kWh during the month. At Beirut International Airport, total plane traffic and passenger flow improved by 0.7% and 10.9%, respectively, as the number of incoming and outgoing passengers went up by 10.8% and 11.0%, respectively; while that of transiting passengers dwindled by 41.9%. Compared to January 2017, airfreight expanded by 24.2%. In January 2018, the number of ships and the volume of maritime freight at the Port of Beirut witnessed a 19.5% and 1.3% respective increase. 1 its potential activity, shrank by 10.6% and 4.1%, DIAGNOSIS respectively. THE BDL COINCIDENT INDICATOR The BDL coincident indicator reached 309.4 in January Cement Deliveries 2018, compared with 318.3 in the previous month and 700 297.2 in January 2017, registering an annual increase of 600 4.1%. 500 Coincident Indicator (Average 1993=100) 400 Monthly Annual 300 Index Changes (%) Changes (%) tons of Thousands 200 Jan-2017 297.2 1.7 6.2 100 Feb-2017 305.3 2.7 3.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mar-2017 306.2 0.3 3.3 2016 2017 2018 Apr-2017 317.6 3.7 6.6 Source: Cement companies May-2017 308.6 -2.8 3.5 Year-on-year, real estate fees collected in January 2018 June-2017 290.1 -6.0 6.0 improved by 13.9%, reaching LBP 72.3 billion. July-2017 304.0 4.8 11.6 Aug-2017 302.0 -0.7 6.0 Sep-2017 291.2 -3.6 2.3 Oct-2017 306.0 5.1 6.5 Nov-2017 323.9 5.9 4.0 FOREIGN TRADE Dec-2017 318.3 -1.7 8.9 F T Jan-2018 309.4 -2.8 4.1 Trade deficit deepened by 3.5% and totaled USD 1,421.8 million at end-January 2018, as imports and exports Coincident Indicator 350 progressed by 6.3% and 23.5%, respectively, to USD 1,705.2 million and USD 283.4 million. 325 Customs duties collected during the month went down by 300 1.8%, and stood at LBP 176.6 billion in January. 309.4 275 Trade Deficit 250 2,500 225 2,000 200 1,500 01/10 04/10 07/10 10/10 01/11 04/11 07/11 10/11 01/12 04/12 07/12 10/12 01/13 04/13 07/13 10/13 01/14 04/14 07/14 10/14 01/15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 10/16 01/17 04/17 07/17 10/17 01/18 1,000 MillionsUSD of 500 CLEARING HOUSE ACTIVITY 0 In January 2018, the total value of settled checks went up Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec by 3.8%. The value of checks in Lebanese pound rose by 2016 2017 2018 13.6%, while that of checks in foreign currencies fell by 0.5%. From the total of settled checks, the share of Source: Customs Higher Council foreign-currency-denominated checks stood at 66.8%, In January 2018, import shares from major source declining by 4.1%. countries were as follows. Year-on-year, the share of returned checks rose by 6.6% Imports by Origin (millions USD) and accounted for 2.0% of the total value of checks at end-January 2018. Jan 17 % of total Jan 18 % of total China 140.4 8.8 247.0 14.5 Italy 86.2 5.4 155.4 9.1 REAL SECTOR Greece 156.0 9.7 133.0 7.8 Germany 92.7 5.8 101.5 6.0 CONSTRUCTION AND REAL ESTATE C R E United States 116.3 7.2 81.1 4.8 Compared to January 2017, the volume of cement Other countries 1,012.2 63.1 987.3 57.9 deliveries, indicator of the construction sector’s current Total imports 1,603.7 100 1,705.2 100 activity, and the area of construction permits, indicator of 2 Main Indicators (Year-on-year changes, in %) Avg-2015 Dec-2016 Avg-2016 Jan-2017 Dec-2017 Avg-2017 Jan-2018 Settled checks in Lebanese pounds 1 (in millions of LBP) 2,350,902 2,832,953 2,498,761 2,611,718 3,213,052 2,722,943 2,965,825 Variation in % 3.65 9.99 6.29 1.37 13.42 8.97 13.56 Settled checks in foreign currencies 1** (in millions of LBP) 4,234 3,875 4,012 3,973 4,127 3,881 3,955 Variation in % -9.48 -9.12 -5.26 -2.23 6.50 -3.25 -0.45 Total settled checks ** (in millions of LBP) 8,734,313 8,674,416 8,546,351 8,601,051 9,434,437 8,574,252 8,928,292 Requests for information at the "Centrale des Risques" 1 Total 27,057 26,754 30,757 34,228 29,293 35,511 36,907 Variation in % 13.48 17.88 13.68 30.19 9.49 15.46 7.83 Construction permits 2** (in square meters) 1,028,296 903,923 1,019,492 848,967 901,259 977,532 815,575 Variation in % -8.92 -16.22 -0.86 2.87 -0.29 -4.12 -3.93 Cement deliveries 3** (in tons) 420,239 296,521 438,622 307,491 426,543 429,051 274,856 Variation in % -8.59 -33.77 4.37 22.64 43.85 -2.18 -10.61 Collected real estate fees 4 (in millions of LBP) 69,510 107,394 71,908 63,477 101,163 84,866 72,297 Variation in % -9.43 8.41 3.45 -0.18 -5.80 18.02 13.89 Total Imports 5** (in millions of LBP) 2,336,729 2,386,383 2,402,620 2,418,371 3,434,980 2,460,824 2,571,515 Variation in % -9.27 -17.14 2.82 6.02 43.94 2.42 6.33 Total Exports 5** (in millions of LBP) 368,436 368,223 374,059 345,990 378,177 357,338 427,383 Variation in % -11.50 13.15 1.53 23.68 2.70 -4.47 23.52 Trade Deficit ** 1,968,292 2,018,159 2,028,560 2,072,382 3,056,803 2,103,486 2,144,132 Variation in % -8.84 -21.00 3.34 3.55 51.46 3.69 3.46 Customs receipts 5* (in millions of LBP) 179,633 187,193 183,950 179,856 190,429 187,405 176,551 Variation in % 1.71 4.99 2.40 -1.83 1.73 1.88 -1.84 Electricity production (EDL network) 6 (in millions of KWh) 1,043 1,156 1,094 1,190 1,303 1,253 1,254 Variation in % -0.02 8.42 4.87 13.30 12.71 14.49 5.41 Imports of petroleum derivatives 7*** (in metric tons) 638,280 630,398 667,298 864,837 586,586 701,530 684,720 Variation in % 12.09 9.73 4.55 19.31 -6.95 5.13 -20.83 Freight at the Port of Beirut 8** Total 685,220 670,824 730,866 631,208 706,871 688,617 639,189 Variation in % -0.79 -9.96 6.66 -7.60 5.37 -5.78 1.26 Freight incoming (tons) 594,521 584,423 644,215 557,024 615,894 594,241 559,690 Freight outgoing (tons) 90,206 86,126 86,333 74,056 90,222 94,132 79,323 Transit and free zone (tons) 493 275 319 128 755 243 176 Flow of passengers (B.I.A.) 9 Total 603,667 598,009 634,180 539,169 626,866 686,307 597,768 Variation in % 10.27 -2.96 5.05 -1.36 4.83 8.22 10.87 Arrival 293,179 316,212 314,971 246,572 333,273 341,936 273,128 Variation in % 9.17 0.92 7.43 1.41 5.40 8.56 10.77 Departure 307,323 281,297 318,483 292,136 293,270 343,959 324,372 Variation in % 10.67 -5.44 3.63 -2.09 4.26 8.00 11.03 Transit 3,164 500 725 461 323 412 268 Variation in % 163.35 -90.80 -77.09 -90.94 -35.40 -43.19 -41.87 * Since July 1995, the customs dollar (LBP 800) is replaced by the official dollar exchange rate.
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