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Our World in Data Access the Data Entries In the future the heading should look like this (showing the ‘featured image’ on top and the title overlayed) War and Peace after 1945 War has declined over the last decades, this data-entry shows you the evidence and explains why. Cite this as: Max Roser (2015) – ‘War and Peace after 1945’. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: http://ourworldindata.org/data/war-peace/war-and-peace-after-1945/ [Online Resource] I have split up the data presentation on war and peace in two sections: the very long-term perspective and wars since 1945. There are two reasons to split the presentation this way: First, the availability and quality of data for wars after World War II is much better than for the time before and secondly, as I show below, there are good reasons to think that the observed decline in wars since 1945 are driven by a number of forces that grew much in their influence since 1945. There are four <h2> headings in each data entry: 1) Empircal View # Empirical View 2) Correlates, Determinants, & Consequences 3) Data Quality & Definition 4) Data Sources # The Absolute Number of War Deaths is declining since 1945 The absolute number of war deaths has been declining since 1946. In some years in the early post war post-war era around half million people died in wars; in 2007 (the last year for which I have data) in contrast the number of all war deaths was down to 22.139. The detailed numbers for 2007 also show which deaths are counted as war deaths: Number of State-Based Battle Deaths: 16773 Number of Non-State Battle Deaths: 1865 Number of One Sided Violence Deaths: 3501 The total sum of the above is: 22139. This is the number of all war deaths on our planet in 2007. Data Entries should be structured into charts with accompanying image. The chart is at the bottom and between the <h3> heading The decline of the absolute number of battle deaths is visualized in the following graph that shows global battle deaths per year and the chart is a short text explaining: by world region. There are three marked peaks in war deaths since then: The Korean War (early 1950s), the Vietnam War (around 1970), and the Iran-Iraq and Afghanistan wars (1980s). – (if necessary) what you have to know to understand the chart – (if necessary) how to read the chart # Number of annual war battle deaths by world region, 1946-2007 – Max Roser – some interpretation of what there is to see, highlighting some important facts that are in the chart. – References to papers & books & web resources that tell you more about it Click to open in Full Screen # The Share of War Deaths is declining even stronger The previous graph showed absolute numbers, but as the world has seen rapid population growth (here is the Our World in Data entry on global population growth) it is more appropriate to look at relative numbers. The following graph therefore shows All headings to graphs (either static images or interactive in the battle deaths per 100,000 people per year. Now the figures are shown by type of conflict. iframes) are <h6> # Rate of battle deaths in state-based armed conflicts by type of conflict, 1946-2013 – Max Roser Full screen view of the interactive chart Download the data visualized in the chart # The Number of Wars has been increasing until the End of the Cold War As we have seen, the number of war victims varies hugely between di erent wars; whereas 1,200,000 died during the the Korean War (1950–1953) other wars had ‘just’ 1,000 victims. For this reason statistics on the number of wars should not be considered without information on the size of these conflicts. The following figure shows that the number of wars increased until the breakdown of the Soviet Union and has been decreasing since then. Extrastate conflicts are colonial conflicts that ended with the end of colonialism. Interstate conflicts – wars fought between countries – have almost ceased to exist. As other wars are becoming rare it is intrastate conflicts (civil wars) in some parts of the world that are left. # Number of state-based armed conflicts by type, 1946-2007 – Max Roser 1 The increase in the number of wars shown before is predominantly an increase of smaller and smaller conflicts. This follows2 from the previously shown facts that the number of war victims declined while the number of conflicts increased. The decreasing deadliness of conflicts is shown in the following graph. # Deadliness of Wars – Average Battle Deaths per Conflict by Decade (1950-2007) – Max Roser # Ongoing Wars Information on ongoing wars that is always up-to-date can be found at Wikipedia’s List of Ongoing Military Conflicts. 3 After the documented decline of war, large parts of the world have now been peaceful for an unprecedented long period and although wars are still fought the world is now more peaceful than ever. # Correlates, Determinants, & Consequences Email Address # Data Quality & Definition Definition of War Most data are taken from the PRIO/UCDP dataset. The following definitions quoted from the website of the Human Security Report Project apply: A conflict is coded as a war when the battle-death toll reaches 1,000 or more in a given calendar year. An extrastate armed conflict is a conflict between a state and an armed group outside the state’s own territory. These are mostly colonial conflicts. An interstate armed conflict is a conflict fought between two or more states. An intrastate armed conflict (also known as a civil conflict) is a conflict between a government and a non-state group that takes place largely within the territory of the state in question. An intrastate armed conflict becomes an internationalized intrastate armed conflict when the government, or an armed group opposing it, receives support, in the form of troops, from one or more foreign states. For more information on definitions visit the website of the Human Security Report. # Data # Data on child mortality in early cultures and hunter gatherers A still often cited early text is Acsádi and J. Nemeskéri (1970) – History of human life span and mortality. Other texts on early cultures and hunter gatherers are: Andrew T. Chamberlain (2006) – Demography in Archaeology-Cambridge University Press (Cambridge Manuals in Archaeology) Gurven, H Kaplan (2007) – Longevity Among Hunter Gatherers: A Cross Cultural Examination. Population and Development Review. Volume 33, Issue 2, pages 321–365, June 2007. Online Preston (1995) – Human mortality throughout history and prehistory. In Simon (1995) – The State of Humanity. Wiley. Johnston, F. E., and C. E. Snow (1961) – The Reassessment of the Age and Sex of the Indian Knoll Skeletal Population: Demographic and Methodological Aspects, American Journal of Physical Anthropology, vol. 19. Brothwell, D. (1975) – Paleodemography, in Biological Aspects of Demography, ed. W. Brass. London: Taylor and Francis. Hopkins, M. K. (1966) – On the Probable Age Structure of the Roman Population, Population Studies, 20, 2. Howell, N. (1979) – The Demography of the Dobe !Kung. New York: Academic Press. # Long-Run Data The Human Mortality Database Data: Child mortality estimates and more mortality data Geographical coverage: More than 35 countries. Mostly European but also Taiwan and USA. Time span: For some countries data is available since the 19th century. Few data available for the 18th century. Available at: Online at www.mortality.org. This very comprehensive source is maintained by the University of California, Berkeley (USA), and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). All headings to sources are <h5> Gapminder.org Data: Child mortality estimates Geographical coverage: Global – by country Time span: From 1800 onwards (data on Sweden go back to 1751) Available at: Online at Gapminder.org The sources of Gapminder are the Human Mortality Database and Child Mortality Estimates Info. Some of the data on child mortality is estimated from data on infant mortality (see the documentation which is online here). # Post 1950 Data ‘Child Mortality Estimates Info’ (CME Info) Data: The latest estimates based on the research of the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation List of available data: Under-five mortality estimates, Infant mortality estimates, Neonatal mortality estimates (for all three rates and deaths) Estimates of: Sex-specific under-five mortality rate, Sex- specific infant mortality rate, Annual rate of reduction of under-five mortality. Geographical coverage: Global – by country. Time span: Data availability varies but for some countries it goes as far back as the 1930s. Available at: Online at www.childmortality.org This very good source is published by UNICEF. It is possible to explore the trends country by country and to visualise the data on a map. World Development Indicators (WDI) published by the World Bank Data: ‘Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)’ Geographical coverage: Global – by country and world region Time span: Annual data since 1960 Available at: Online here The Worl Bank data is based on the estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, UN DESA Population Division) at childmortality.org. Stay up to date by subscribing to the newsletter SUBSCRIBE and follow here MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS PROJECT CAN BE FOUND AT THE ABOUT PAGE. CLICK HERE TO FIND THE RELEVANT INFORMATION ON COPYRIGHTS, THE DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND THE LIMITATION OF LIABILITY . MAX ROSER (WWW.MAXROSER.COM) IS THE AUTHOR OF OURWORLDINDATA.ORG OURWORLDINDATA IS BASED AND SUPPORTED BY THE INSTITUTE FOR NEW ECONOMIC THINKING AT THE OXFORD MARTIN SCHOOL: OURWORLDINDATA IS ALSO FUNDED BY THE NUFFIELD FOUNDATION: THE NUFFIELD FOUNDATION IS AN ENDOWED CHARITABLE TRUST THAT AIMS TO IMPROVE SOCIAL WELL-BEING IN THE WIDEST SENSE.
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