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China and the World: Inside a Changing Economic Relationship

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China and the World: Inside a Changing Economic Relationship China and the world: Inside a changing economic relationship As flows of trade, technology, and capital have shifted, China’s exposure to other countries has declined, while the world’s exposure to China has increased. Jonathan Woetzel, Jeongmin Seong, Nick Leung, Joe Ngai, James Manyika, Anu Madgavkar, Susan Lund, and Andrey Mironenko DECEMBER 2018 © Qianli Zhang/Getty Images China has changed itself—and changed the world. in this article, we focus on China’s economic By 2017, China accounted for 15 percent of world relationships with the world. GDP. It overtook the United States to become the world’s largest economy in purchasing-power-parity China’s growth story is far from over terms in 2014, according to International Monetary There is every prospect of China continuing its Fund (IMF) data—for the first time since 1870.1 In impressive growth path with powerful domestic nominal terms, China’s GDP was 64 percent that tailwinds, including urbanization and plenty of of the United States in 2017, making it the second scope to boost per capita GDP and productivity largest economy in the world. China is a considerable (Exhibit 1). player on a global stage—and the strategic choices it makes could be pivotal for global growth. We freely Comparison with Japan as it stood in the 1990s— acknowledge that there are many other dimensions when it was the world’s second-largest economy than the economic to China’s global impact; however, behind the United States—is instructive. At that Exhibit 1 China has strong domestic tailwinds to propel economic growth. evolution by country 121 United States = 100; current $ basis 100 United States 80 China 60 40 Japan 20 Germany 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Per capita GDP, 96 151 15 % of United States Urbanization rate, % 73 78 58 Germany 1979 Japan 1995 China 2017 Source: World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 2 China and the world: Inside a changing economic relationship point, Japan’s per capita GDP was already around There are concerns, as noted, about the “China 50 percent above that of the United States (about shock” displacing manufacturing jobs in advanced 20 percent lower on a purchasing-power-parity economies such as the United States, although basis); China’s nominal per capita GDP remains only automation technologies have also played a role.3 around 15 percent of the US level (28 percent on a One study estimates that at least two million purchasing-power-parity basis). In addition, Japan’s US manufacturing jobs were displaced between urbanization rate was already 78 percent; China’s 1999 and 2011, a period when imports from China today is 58 percent, still 20 to 30 percentage points were surging.4 However, correlation should not below that of high-income economies. Since the mid- be confused with causation. When China joined 1990s, Japan has struggled to achieve significant the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the growth momentum. China is different. It has a large dynamics of US trade with Asia changed. The United population on relatively low incomes, and plenty States has historically run large trade deficits with of room for further urbanization and productivity Asia. After China’s accession to the WTO, a great deal gains enabling further income growth. If realized, of assembly and trade was consolidated in China. By these gains could propel China to become not only importing inputs from other Asian economies and the world’s largest economy and manufacturer, but exporting finished goods to the United States, China also its largest investor and market. became the consolidated trading hub for the US– Asia trading relationship.5 China and the world are not as close as they once were More fundamentally, the past decade appears to China’s relationship with the world seems to be at have ushered in a new context for China and the a turning point. The changing dynamics of global world. China’s exposure to the world (measured by political leadership are pivotal, but beyond the scope the magnitude of flows with the rest of the world of this article. relative to its economy) has declined over the past decade. At the same time, the world’s exposure to Consumers around the world have been benefiting China (the magnitude of flows with China relative to from trade with China. For example, it is estimated the global economy) has increased since 2000. that Chinese imports have cut US consumer-goods prices by an estimated 27 percent.2 China is today The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) analyzed a major market for multinational companies seeking the mutual exposure of China and the rest of the new growth—the revenue of foreign invested world on trade, technology, and capital. On trade, enterprises increased 12-fold between 2000 and we measured the importance of China as a market 2017, according to China’s National Statistics Bureau. and as a supplier of goods and services to the global economy.6 On technology, we measured the However, the nature of China’s rise is coming under importance of Chinese technological exports to scrutiny. Criticism has been voiced about, for global R&D spending.7 On capital, we measured the instance, China’s policies to support technology importance of China as a supplier of financing and transfer from foreign to local firms, weak as a destination for investments.8 We found that intellectual-property (IP) protection, and industrial from 2000 to 2017, the world’s exposure to China has policies that favor domestic players. And China’s increased on all three dimensions, and the aggregate foreign investment is being examined closely index rose from 0.4 in 2000 to 1.2 in 2017.9 In amid fears that foreign deals are facilitating large- contrast, China’s exposure to the world peaked at 0.9 scale technology transfer. in 2007 and had declined to 0.6 by 2017 (Exhibit 2).10 China and the world: Inside a changing economic relationship 3 between 5 and 8 percent of GDP. Between 2010 and Exhibit 2 2014 (the latest available data), China’s gross exports China has been reducing its exposure to amounted to 34 percent of real GDP growth; using the the world while the world has been domestic value-added measure (measuring exports increasing exposure to China. by subtracting imports used in the production of goods and services that are subsequently exported), China and the world exposure indices over time,1 the share was about 25 percent. index 1.2 On technology, China has been increasing domestic Rest of world exposure R&D capacity and is now the second largest R&D to China spender in the world, after the United States. China 1.0 Weighted average today leads key segments of the digital economy such exposure of 7 large as e-commerce and on-demand services. However, it 0.8 2 economies is not yet a major technology supplier and exporter of R&D. China’s intellectual property exports account 0.6 China exposure to for about 1.8 percent of R&D spending by the rest rest of world of the world. China’s imports of technology in the 0.4 form of IP and tech services and equipment grew significantly from just over $11 billion in 2007 to 0.2 $48 billion in 2017, according to the IMF. However, these imports declined as a share of domestic R&D 0 spending from 24 to 16 percent. 2000 2007 2012 2017 1Includes trade, technology, and capital exposure metrics. 2China, France, Germany, India, Japan, United Kingdom, and On financing and capital, China has become an United States. increasingly important source of global capital and Source: IHS Global Insight; International Monetary Fund; remained a significant destination for investment. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; World Input-Output Database; McKinsey Global Institute analysis China accounted for about 10 percent of global outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2017, up from just about one percent in 2000. However, relative to the domestic economy, FDI has been relatively stable and may even have declined China has increased its role in global trade since its somewhat. In 2007, inbound FDI amounted to accession to the WTO. Consider that 2.6 percent of 9 percent of domestic investment; by 2017, that consumption in the rest of the world is imported from number had shrunk to 8 percent. Although exposure China today, compared with only 0.8 percent in 2000. to Chinese capital is growing abroad, growth in Chinese imports now account for 2.0 percent of the domestic investment has reduced China’s exposure gross output of the rest of the world, compared with to overseas capital and investment opportunities. 0.4 percent in 2000. However, China has become far more reliant on its domestic economy to drive China’s declining exposure to the world is also growth. As recently as 2008, China’s net trade surplus evident in its trade policies related to imports. Since accounted for 8 percent of GDP; by 2017, that figure joining the WTO, China has halved tariffs from an was only 1.7 percent—less than either Germany or average of 16 percent in 2000 to 8 percent in 2008. South Korea, where net trade surpluses amount to But since then, the average tariff rate has edged 4 China and the world: Inside a changing economic relationship up to 9.6 percent as of 2016—which is more than Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization double the US and EU average. China has opened Act expanded the jurisdiction of the Committee on up doors to foreign capital, but barriers still persist.
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