Three Towns Locality Partnership

Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership Three Towns ‐ What the Profile will cover

• Priorities from workshops & People’s Panel 2015

• Population change –from 2012 to 2026

• Life expectancy

• Household Incomes

• Education ‐ results at key stages

• Housing –average house prices

• Key strengths and challenges Priorities from People’s Panel & workshops (2015 ) People’s Panel

• 2000 North Ayrshire residents surveyed every 2 years with follow‐up focus groups. • Question “What are the most important aims for partnership working in North Ayrshire” • The aim “We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger” was selected by the greatest number of respondents as one of their top 5 priorities. This was the case for both North Ayrshire as a whole and for respondents within the Three Towns Locality. • In the Three Towns locality 47% of respondents selected it as one of their top 5 aims Percentage of Three Towns respondents selecting 50 47 priority as a top 5 aim 45

40 39 37 36 35 34

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 We live our lives safe Our young people We realise our full We have strong, Our children have from crime, disorder are successful economic potential resilient and the best start in life and danger learners, confident with more and supportive and are ready to individuals, better communities where succeed effective employment people take contributors and opportunities for our responsibility for responsible citizens people their own actions and how they affect others Locality Planning workshops

• The workshops generated 943 comments from over 150 people who participated.

• Workshops consulted on the membership, role and responsibilities of new Partnerships:

– Are these the right people? Anyone missing?

– Are these a fair set of responsibilities? Anything missing?

– What should be the role of Partnerships in the development and delivery of Locality Plans? Fig 1. Distribution of comments by Locality & Outlook

Youth Groups 91.3 0.0

Third Sector Interface 59.5 4.0

Cumbrae 43.6 30.8

North Coast 38.5 36.1 Overall Positive Garnock Valley 60.9 17.3 Neutral Overall Negative Three Towns 53.2 26.6

Kilwinning 70.9 9.3

Irvine 61.2 21.6

Arran 47.9 19.7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Population Change Locality Area ‐ Population estimates 2014 45,000

40,000 39,085

35,000 32,981

30,000

25,000 21,090 21,450 20,000 17,255 15,000

10,000 4,589 5,000

‐ Arran Garnock Irvine Kilwinning North Three Valley Coast Towns Three Towns Population Projection 2012‐2026 25,000 ‐10%

20,000

15,000 0 to 17 33% 18 to 64 10,000 Population 65+

5,000 ‐11%

0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Change in the key age groups 2012 and 2026 - Three Towns

Three Towns Three Towns 2012 2026 0‐17yrs Over 0‐17yrs Over 65s 18% 19% 21% 65s 25%

56% 61%

Working Age Working Age 18‐64yrs 18‐64yrs

Source: National Records of Scotland, Population Projections 2016 Population change to 2026 summary

Between 2012 and 2026 the population of: • North Ayrshire is projected to decrease by -4% • Three Towns will decrease -2% •Over 65s are the only age group projected to increase in size in Three Towns locality (up by 33%), similar to North Ayrshire which will increase by 31% • Under 18s in North Ayrshire are projected to decrease by 9% while this group will decrease by -11% in Three Towns • Working age residents will decline by more than -13% across North Ayrshire compared with a -10% fall in the Three Towns Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland and North Ayrshire Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland & Ayrshire 2014 79.0

78.2 78.0

77.0 77.1 76.5

76.0 75.9 Scotland 75.0

74.4 East Ayrshire 74.0 North Ayrshire 73.8 73.5 73.2 South Ayrshire 73.0

72.0

71.0

70.0 2002‐2004 2007‐2009 2012‐2014 Life expectancy ‐ Scotland / North Ayrshire

North Scotland Three Ayrshire 1 Towns 76.6 76.5 75.0 years years years

MALES

Three North Scotland Towns1 Ayrshire 80.8 years 79.0 years 81.0 years

FEMALES

Source: NRS Life expectancy 2009‐2013 estimates 1 Based on median of life expectancy for relevant Three Towns intermediate zones Male Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside Skelmorlie and Rural Fairlie and Rural Arran Ardrossan North West 80.7 Three Towns Largs South Springside and Rural areas are in Largs North Saltcoats North West 78.6 Yellow Kilbirnie North West Kilbride and Seamill Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer 77.0 Kilwinning Central and North Dalry West Scotland 76.6 Beith West Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Ardrossan North East 75.6 Kilwinning Pennyburn Irvine Tarryholme Beith East and Rural Stevenston Hayocks 75.0 Largs Central and Cumbrae Kilbirnie South and Longbar Dalry East and Rural Saltcoats North East 73.0 Irvine East Saltcoats Central 72.9 Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Central Ardrossan Central 72.1 Irvine Broomlands Kilwinning West and Blacklan Stevenston North West 70.5 Irvine Castlepark South Irvine Fullarton Irvine Castlepark North 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Female Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Fairlie and Rural 89.2 Skelmorlie and Rural West Kilbride and Seamill Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside Irvine Broomlands Three Towns Largs North Springside and Rural areas are in Irvine Tarryholme Arran Yellow Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Dalry East and Rural Kilbirnie North Largs South Ardrossan North West 82.3 Beith East and Rural Dalry West Kilwinning Central and North Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Irvine Central Scotland 80.8 Largs Central and Cumbrae Saltcoats North West 80.3 Irvine East Beith West Kilwinning Pennyburn Stevenston North West 79.9 Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer 79.7 Ardrossan North East 79.0 Irvine Castlepark North Kilbirnie South and Longbar Stevenston Hayocks 78.4 Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Castlepark South Saltcoats Central 76.9 Irvine Fullarton Ardrossan Central 76.1 Kilwinning West and Blacklan Saltcoats North East 75.5 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 Education

Household Income Gross Average Household Income (2015) (North Ayrshire) £36,402 £34,625 £35,000 £30,537 £30,000

£25,000

£20,000

£15,000

£10,000

£5,000

£0 North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain Gross Household Income (% of households by locality ) 35.0

30.0 28.6

25.0 22.7 19.8 20.0 19.0 households 17.0 17.2 of

15.0 13.4 13.9 12.2 12.2

Percentage 10.2 10.0 8.5

5.0 4.0 1.3

0.0 £0 to £10k £10 to £20k £20 to £30k £30 to £40k £40 to £50k £50 to £100k £100k+ Arran Garnock Valley Irvine Kilwinning North Coast & Cumbraes Three Towns North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain House Prices Median House Price 2014 ‐ North Ayrshire Settlements 250,000

200,000 193,000 (£)

150,000 Price

92,000 100,000

Median 84,500 70,000 67,500 60,000 50,000

‐

Source: NRS Registers of Sasines 2015 Median House Price % Change 2004 ‐ 2014 100.0 87.5

80.0

60.0 2014

‐ 48.4

37.3 2004 40.0

20.0 Change

% 4.3 0.0

‐20.0 Summary

Strengths & Challenges Summary –Three Towns

Strengths Challenges • Stable younger age population • Over 65s projected to increase by to 2026 one‐third over next 15 yrs • Pockets of above average male • Female life expectancy clustering life expectancy in all three below the Scotland and North settlements Ayrshire average • Examples of educational • Lower attainment rates among attainment in Ardrossan S5 pupils at SCQF Level 6 • Highest house price growth in (Highers) North Ayrshire over last 10 • Some of the lowest household years in Stevenston incomes in North Ayrshire Next steps

• Six summary Locality Profiles • Comparator tables across 6 areas • Profiles made available on CPP web pages • Downloadable PDFs on new website