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MERICAN FOREIGN POLIC THE NATION’S ONLY STUDENT-WRITTEN, STUDENT-EDITED FOREIGN POLICY NEWSPAPER Y AOLUME UMBER OUNDED BY THE RINCETON OMMITTEE GAINST ERRORISM V III, N 6 THURSDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2003 F P C A T WINGWING SSUPPLIERSUPPLIERS IIRAQRAQ’’SS RROLEOLE ININ RREPLACINGEPLACING SSAUDIAUDI CCRUDERUDE Page 2 AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2003 The Nation’s Only Student-Written, Student-Edited Foreign Policy Magazine IN THIS ISSUE: GABE COLLINS ‘05: SWING SUPPLIERS............................................. PAGE 3 KYLE MENG ‘05: DIRE STRAITS.......................................................... PAGE 4 PROFESSOR UWE REINHARDT: A SPECIAL LETTER..................... PAGE 5 DAVID KONIECZKOWSKI ‘06: A STUDENT RESPONSE.................... PAGE 7 JESSICA CASE ‘06: A VELVET REVOLUTION..................................... PAGE 8 MATT MACDONALD ‘07: P.R. PITFALLS IN IRAQ ............................... PAGE 9 PAT COOGAN ‘04: IRAQ AND THE “V” WORD .................................. PAGE 10 JESSICA CASE ‘06: BRUTALITY IN CHECHNYA ................................ PAGE 11 AFP MAILBAG: A LETTER FROM SEN. FRIST ................................... PAGE 12 AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY Thursday, December 4, 2003 IN BRIEF... Volume III, Number 6 Afghan Checkup With popular attention largely focused on Iraq, we shouldn’t Publishers forget the ongoing nation-building campaign in Afghanistan, where the Pete Ross ‘04, Gabriel Collins ‘05 situation seems to be quietly but surely deteriorating. New American Ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad faces numerous problems, Editors foremost among them surging poppy cultivation, increased attacks on Ray Yang ‘04, Elisabeth Henderson ‘06, UN and NGO aid workers, and a renewed groundswell of support for David Konieczkowski ‘06, Ryan Walsh ‘06 the Taliban among Afghans disillusioned by slow progress on the reconstruction front. Until the Afghan people take the bull by the horns Senior Writers and move in earnest to curb warlords’ power by complying with Kabul’s Veronika Musilova ‘04, Matthew Schonfield ‘04, policies, progress will be inadequate and the Taliban’s resurrection will Karen Karniol-Tambour ‘06 continue to gain momentum. Special Contributors India and Tajikistan J.R. Johnson *03, Jeff McLean USNA ‘04, On November 14, Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee paid a state Milena Adzhiashvili, Wheaton College ‘05 visit to Tajikistan, where a Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism and a bilateral extradition treaty were both affirmed. India also plans to Editors Emeriti build a highway passing through Northern Afghanistan that will link it to Eric Wang ’02, Carlos Ramos-Mrosovsky ‘04 Tajikistan, giving it a transport corridor to the otherwise inaccessible region. Most importantly, India’s first ever foreign military base has been Staff Writers established at Farkhor on southern Tajikistan near the Afghan border. Farook Ahmed ‘04, Joseph Barillari ‘04, Brian Beck ‘05, Viewed through the prism of India’s growing political and economic Jeff Bozman ‘05, Michael Brier ‘06, Jessica Case ‘06, relationships with Iran, the recent engagement of Tajikistan seems the Haylee Cohen ‘04, Patrick Coogan ‘04, Christoper Cost ‘04, latest phase of India’s “Southern Thrust” to counter Chinese influence in Alex Day ‘07, Andrew Fornarola ‘06, Darren Geist ‘05, Central Asia. The New Great Game just added another player. Matthew Gold ‘06, Jonathan Goldwasser ‘04, Benjamin Good ‘05, Elisabeth Henderson ‘06, Will Leahy ‘04, Self-Destruction Sasha Leonhardt ‘05, Matthew Macdonald ‘07, In the past few weeks, four suicide bombings have claimed 52 Kelsey Mayo ‘05, Kyle Meng ‘05, Michael Murray ‘06, lives in Turkey, nearly all of them Muslim passersby. While the war on Bjorn Nuwanda, Jr. ‘07, Nitesh Paryani ‘05, George Pilcher ‘04, terror has functionally decapitated al-Qaeda, the beast lives on in a more Alina Rekhtman ‘05, Ryan Rich ‘04, Katharine Roberts ‘04, Cynthia Romero ‘04, Gabriel Rossman GS, Leon Skornicki ‘06, Dylan amorphous and equally deadly form. Like the barbaric attacks in Morocco Stamer ‘06, Jordan Stern ‘04, David Willard ‘05 Indonesia, Kenya, and Pakistan, the attacks in Turkey seem to number driving a wedge between the West and its Muslim allies a primary goal. Faculty Advisers However, as the Egyptian public’s reaction to a spate of terrorist actions Elizabeth C. Bogan W. F. Danspeckgruber in the mid 1990s showed, the odds are better than even that al-Qaeda’s Michael Doran Robert P. George bloody work will backfire by hardening the resolve of civilized persons Frederick P. Hitz R. Sean Wilentz across the Middle East against its evil deeds. By indiscriminately killing innocent Muslims, Al-Qaeda may well succeed where we have failed in American Foreign Policy was founded by the Princeton Committee Against Ter- building an action oriented global anti-terror coalition. rorism (PCAT), a nonpartisan, nonprofit student organization formed in response to the September 11 attacks. No part of this publication should be Villepin Strikes Out construed to promote any pending legislation or to support any candidate for In the best national spirit, the French Foreign Ministry has gone on office. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Princeton University or American Foreign Policy. AFP strike. Ninety-four percent of French diplomats around the world gladly accepts letters to the editor, article proposals, and donations, which are coordinated a one-day work stoppage last week. The strike, which fully tax-deductible. All correspondence may be directed to: was the first of its kind, stretched from Algiers to Tehran to Washington, D.C. was intended to protest Foreign Minister Dominique Unit 2556 de Villepin’s penchant for lavish travel at a time when the Foreign Ministry is facing severe budget cuts. According to report, diplomats 25 Frist Campus Center in some posts have been reduced to buying stationery and office Princeton, NJ 08544-1125 supplies out of pocket, while the elevators in the Foreign Ministry [email protected] have stopped functioning properly. The strike is a great blow for Villepin’s quest to enhance French prestige, but others may snicker. www.princeton.edu/~afp AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2003 Page 3 The Nation’s Only Student-Written, Student-Edited Foreign Policy Magazine THE NEW SWING SUPPLIER Iraq’s huge oil reserves make it a possible counterweight to Saudi Arabia By GABE COLLINS ‘05 n recent weeks, attacks on American troops in Iraq have skyrocketed as insurgents continue to find safe haven within the Sunni Triangle. ICorrespondingly, public support for America’s nation building campaign has begun to wane. Nevertheless, it is imperative that the Coalition stay the course and finish the job. Humanitarian and security concerns dominated public discourse during the months leading up to the war. However, the unfashionable yet overwhelmingly important matter of energy security remained, aside from offhand dismissals by Bush opponents, almost unmentioned. Despite energy security’s “black sheep” status, there is nothing inherently wrong or shameful in using military force to secure one’s energy future. Until a substitute for petroleum is found, the United States’ oil addiction makes energy security a strategic concern of the first degree. In the case of Iraq, its potential production capacity will eventually allow it to augment or possibly replace Saudi Despite recent concerns about reservoir damage in the enormous Kirkuk and Rumaila fields, Iraq’s prospects as an Arabia as the world oil market’s swing oil exporter remain bright. Multinational companies strain at the bit in hopes of getting even a small piece of supplier. In essence, this means that it can Iraq’s rich petroleum pie. Stabilizing the country will allow them to realize their hopes, and by extension, the Iraqi supplant Saudi Arabia’s ability to quickly people’s hope for a prosperous post-Saddam life. ramp up production when outside political events such as conflict in Nigeria or anti-Chavez strikes in Venezuela cause 4. Iraq’s potential remains largely world oil export stage, Russia increasingly needs Coalition advisors to train production shortfalls. Four factors make untapped, as only 17 of 80 discovered seems to be setting its sights on North technicians and help rebuild pipelines and Iraq an excellent candidate for the swing fields have been developed. Assuming American markets, which can be serviced other infrastructure shattered during supplier role: that the internal situation stabilizes enough by the soon-to-be-built pipeline running Saddam’s devastating rule. It also needs 1. Proven reserves estimated at 112.5 to entice foreign petroleum multinationals from the East Siberian fields near Angarsk them, along with the IMF and World Bank, billion barrels of oil, with other estimates to invest a large part of the $30-40 billion to the Pacific port of Nakhodka, as well to implement revenue distribution saying that up to 98 billion more barrels needed to rebuild and improve Iraq’s as from port facilities at the northern port schemes to ensure that oil benefits all still await discovery. admittedly dilapidated infrastructure, the of Murmansk. Nevertheless, even with Iraqis rather than a corrupt few. What Iraq 2. Its wells’ unsurpassed average country might eventually produce 12 Russian oil’s boost to our energy security does not need are German, French, and production capacity, which exceeds even million barrels of crude per day. through source diversification, the