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INTELLIGENCE for EARTH Clarity, Diversity, Integrity, & Sustainability INTELLIGENCE for EARTH Clarity, Diversity, Integrity, & Sustainability Robert David Steele Companion and Sequel to COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE: Creating a Prosperous World at Peace Earth Intelligence Network Oakton, Virginia Copyright © 2010, Earth Intelligence Network (EIN) This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 Unported License For details go to http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/us/ EIN retains commercial and revenue rights. Authors retain other rights offered under copyright. Entire book and individual chapters free online at www.phibetaiota.net Available by Box of 20 at 50% Retail Facsimile Orders at 80% Retail: (703) 281-0888 Published by Earth Intelligence Network February 2010 Post Offi ce Box 369, Oakton, Virginia 22124 www.earth-intelligence.net Cover graphic combines two photographs from the National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA). The Earth by itself is available in a round color sticker as Item Apollo 17(E) from EarthSeals, POB 8000, Berkeley, CA 94707. Jacket design and interior layout by Deb Tremper, www.sixpennygraphics.com Printed and bound in the United States of America 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA STEELE Vivas, Robert David, 1952- INTELLIGENCE for EARTH: Clarity, Diversity, Integrity, & Sustainability/by Robert STEELE Vivas (Author) p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and free online searchable “virtual” index. ISBN 13: 978-097-15661-7-0 (alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-971-5661-7-8 (alk. paper) 1. Collective intelligence. 2. Cognitive science. 3. Mass collaboration. 4. Distributed cognition. 5. Macrocognition. 6. Open source. 7. Peer production. 8. Internet. 9. Decision-support. 10. Public intelligence. 11. Organizational intelligence. 12. Commercial intelligence. 13. Peace intelligence. 18. Information science—social aspects. 19. Collaboration. 20. Cognitive bias. 21. Distributed problem solving. I Title JK-468-16574 2010 1 327.1273—dc21 00-029284 INTELLIGENCE FOR EARTH: CLARITY, DIVERSTY, INTEGRITY, & SUSTAINABILITY Table of Contents Preface vii I STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE—SUSTAINABILITY 1 Creati ng a Prosperous World at Peace 1 Strategic Intelligence and the Ten High-Level Threats to Humanity 5 2 The United Nati ons (UN) System—A Starti ng Point 13 3 The Brahimi Report: Panel on United Nati ons Peace Operati ons 23 4 First Steps: Joint Centers for Operati ons and Analysis 29 5 The Fragmentati on of Knowledge Among Eight Intelligence Tribes 37 6 UN Open-Source Decision-Support Informati on Network 43 7 Conclusions & Recommendati ons 55 II OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE—INTEGRITY 57 Multi nati onal Multi functi onal Regional Centers & Networks 8 Operati onal Intelligence and Regional Policy Harmonizati on 59 9 State of the Regional Unions 71 10 Cultures of Catastrophe, Cheati ng, Confl ict, & Conspiracy 77 11 Informati on Asymmetries and Data Pathologies 87 12 Rebalancing & Revitalizing the Instruments of Nati onal Power 95 13 Regional Centers & Networks 111 14 Conclusions and Recommendati ons 117 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS III TACTICAL INTELLIGENCE—DIVERSITY 119 All Humans, All Minds, All the Time—the World Brain 15 Tacti cal Intelligence Sources and Methods 123 16 Indigenous Peoples—Demographic Poverty & Power 129 17 The New Craft of Intelligence (Collecti on & Processing) 137 18 The New Craft of Intelligence (Analysis & Decision-Support) 149 19 Human Intelligence (HUMINT): All Humans & Minds, All the Time 163 20 21st Century Counterintelligence: Evaluati ng Health of the Nati on 179 21 Conclusions and Recommendati ons 205 IV TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE—CLARITY 207 Open Everything, Global-to-Local Needs Table 22 Technical Intelligence Enablers 209 23 Parti cipatory Budget Transparency & Panarchic Outreach 223 24 Earth Intelligence Network & The Global Game 235 25 “True Costs,” Ecological Economics, & Moral Capitalism 247 26 Conscious Non-Zero Evoluti on & Global to Local Needs Table 253 27 Open Everything 261 28 Conclusions and Recommendati ons 267 Epilogue 269 Glossary 271 Annotated Bibliography 277 An index is not provided because this is a hybrid book with all notes and many key persons or ideas hyper-linked to their original source. The easily searched digital book is free online at htt p://www.phibetaiota.net/?p=19357. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Figures I STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE—SUSTAINABILITY 1 Creati ng a Prosperous World at Peace 1 Figure 01. Ten High-Level Threats to Humanity 5 1 Figure 02. The UN and the Eight Tribes of Intelligence 9 1 Figure 03. Strategy for Creati ng a Prosperous World at Peace 11 2 Figure 04. UN System Funding 13 2 Figure 05: UN Peacekeeping Deployment Budgets 18 2 Figure 06. UN Themati c Index 19 3 Figure 07. Strategic Recommendati ons 25 3 Figure 08. Operati onal &Tacti cal Recommendati ons 26 3 Figure 09. Technical Recommendati ons 27 4 Figure 10. UN Joint Military Operati onal Centre in Haiti 33 4 Figure 11. Informati on-Gathering from Permitt ed to Prohibited 34 4 Figure 12. Expediti onary Requirements Defi niti on 36 5 Figure 13. Web of Fragmented Knowledge 39 5 Figure 14. Informati on Operati ons Cube 40 5 Figure 15. Original Toffl er-Steele Reacti on to DIA Lunch 41 6 Figure 16. Revoluti on in Human Aff airs & Human Leadership 44 6 Figure 17. Open Source Agency (OSA) Documented as a Need 51 6 Figure 18. Multi nati onal Decision-Support Centre (MDSC) 52 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS II OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE—INTEGRITY 57 Multi nati onal Multi functi onal Regional Centers & Networks 8 Figure 19. Analyti c Matrix for Regional Policy Harmonizati on 60 8 Figure 20. Six Circles of Informati on-Sharing & Sense-Making 69 8 Figure 21. Using Informati on to Harmonize Major Player Spending 70 9 Figure 22. African Union (AU) 72 9 Figure 23. Shanghai Cooperati on Organisati on (SCO) 74 9 Figure 24. Union of South American Countries (UNASUR) 76 11 Figure 25. Data Pathologies 91 11 Figure 26. Missing General Informati on 93 11 Figure 27. Missing True Cost Informati on 94 12 Figure 28. What the Marines Knew in 1988 102 12 Figure 29. Diff erent Threat Classes Require Diff erent Approaches 104 12 Figure 30. Rebalancing the Strategic Budget—Four Forces 105 12 Figure 31. Old War Paradigm versus New Peace Paradigm 106 12 Figure 32. Essenti al Restructuring of US “Intelligence” Community 109 13 Figure 33. Regional Multi nati onal Decision-Support Centre (RMDSC) 114 13 Figure 34. Home Country Military Hub for M4IS2 115 III TACTICAL INTELLIGENCE—DIVERSITY 119 All Humans, All Minds, All the Time—the World Brain 15 Figure 35. Man as Anemic Failure 124 15 Figure 36. Radical Man Fulfi lled 125 15 Figure 37. Framework for the Analysis of Revoluti on 126 15 Figure 38. Levels of Analysis & Verti cal Analyti c Domains 127 15 Figure 39. Threat (or Factor) Changes at Each Level of Analysis 128 16 Figure 40. The Poverty Zone 129 16 Figure 41. Poverty in the USA 130 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS 17 Figure 42. Four Quadrants Leading to Organizati onal Intelligence 145 17 Figure 43. Twitt er as a Collecti on Tool 146 18 Figure 44. Keep 20% of the Old, Get a Grip on the 80% We’ve Ignored 152 18 Figure 45. Standard Open Source Intelligence Cell 156 18 Figure 46. Herring Pyramid of Analyti c Focus and Cost 157 18 Figure 47. Holisti c Analysis: All Threats, All Policies, All the Time 158 19 Figure 48. Core Force with Eight Human Functi ons 165 19 Figure 49. War and Peace: The Seventh Generati on 166 19 Figure 50. Human Generati onal Diff erences 167 19 Figure 51. Linear versus Diamond Intelligence Process 169 19 Figure 52. Putti ng the President in Touch with Humanity and Reality 170 19 Figure 53. Integrated Full-Spectrum HUMINT Management 172 19 Figure 54. HUMINT Field—Sources, Targets, and Consumers 178 IV TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE—CLARITY 207 22 Figure 55. Needed F/OSS Functi onaliti es 211 22 Figure 56. State of the Analyti c Toolkit Marketplace in 2001 214 22 Figure 57. OSINT as a Hybrid Discipline Relevant to ALL Mission Areas 220 23 Figure 58: Infi nite Possibiliti es in Bott om-Up Consensus 227 23 Figure 59. Concept for Broad Online Parti cipatory Budgeti ng 230 24 Figure 60: Public Intelligence & Budget Harmonizati on 238 24 Figure 61. Citi zen-Centered Self-Representati on 244 26 Figure 62. Intelligence Maturity Scale 255 26 Figure 63. Relati ve Cost of War versus Peace and Prosperity for All 257 26 Figure 64. False Offi cial Military Budget Share versus the Real Share 258 26 Figure 65. Rejecti ng the War Paradigm in Favor of the Peace Paradigm 259 26 Figure 66. Global to Local Needs Table Online 260 27 Figure 67. Open Everything 261 27 Figure 68. Open Money Wealth-Acknowledgment System 264 v vi INTELLIGENCE FOR EARTH: CLARITY, DIVERSTY, INTEGRITY, & SUSTAINABILITY Preface The truth at any cost reduces all other costs. I am a recovering spy who in 1988 discovered that virtually all of our very expensive secret sources and methods were largely worthless in terms of decision-support to policy-makers, acquisiti on managers, and operati onal fi eld commanders. Today the US taxpayer funds a $75 billion a year intelligence-industrial-congressional complex (alongside a $750 billion a year military-industrial-congressional complex), and the verdict is in: the secret world provides, “at best” 4% of a top commander’s knowledge; and in my own fi ndings and those of the US Army Strategic Studies Insti tute (SSI) and others, the Pentagon is opti mized for 10% of the threat—state on state high-intensity confl ict. Today in both Afghanistan and Iraq, our earnest warriors are turning to open sources of informati on, and striving to create human capabiliti es that yield no profi t to the beltway bandits but actually accomplish the mission.
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