Supporting the Sustainable Development of Railway Transport in Developing Countries

sustainability

Article Supporting the Sustainable Development of Railway Transport in Developing Countries

Agnes Wanjiku Wangai 1,2,* , Daniel Rohacs 1 and Anita Boros 3,4

1 Department of Aeronautics, Naval Architecture, and Railway Vehicles, Faculty of Transportation Engineering and Vehicle Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, H-1111 Budapest, Hungary; [email protected] 2 Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Dedan Kimathi University of Technology, Private bag-10143, Nyeri, Kenya 3 Globalization Competence Center, Széchenyi István University, H-9026 Gy˝or, Hungary 4 Lajos L˝orincInstitute of Administrative Law, Faculty of Science of Public Governance and Administration, National University of Public Service, H-1083 Budapest, Hungary; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]

Received: 18 March 2020; Accepted: 19 April 2020; Published: 28 April 2020

Abstract: Generally, the development process of the railway transport system is determined by the market pull effects initiated by the economy and society and the market push effects induced by technological progress. The policymakers can provide a balance between these two effects; this results in more effective, safer, and greener future railway systems. In developing countries, the railway systems lag compared to the developed economies. Therefore, the supporting management tools and legal supports for policymakers and strategic management play significant roles in the development of future sustainable transport systems. This paper deals with such required tools and the potential legal framework that support the development of sustainable railway systems in developing countries. The major novelty and advantages of the introduced methodology is the harmonised interaction between society, economic demands, technological development, and regulation. The proposed tools are applied to the Kenya rail system development.

Keywords: railway transport; strategic development; developing countries; Sub-Saharan Africa

1. Introduction Transport systems have deterministic roles in the economy and further developments [1–3]. According to European statistics [4], out of all freight transported nowadays, road transport has nearly a 50% contribution, while water-based is approximately 30% and the rail is a little over 11%. Railway networks were established in the Sub-Saharan region almost at the same time as the rest of the world [5,6]. Despite this, the railway network has at least three signiﬁcant problems [7,8], as shown in Figure1:

It primarily serves the harbour networks and former colonisation interests; • It uses signiﬁcantly diﬀerent solutions (e.g., rail-gauge) than the rest of the world; and • It has not been well maintained or developed for the last 50–80 years. •

Sustainability 2020, 12, 3572; doi:10.3390/su12093572 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2020, 12, 3572 2 of 21 Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 20

Figure 1. Rail traffic densityFigure 1. inRail countries traﬃc density of Sub in countriesSahara Africa of Sub Sahara(SSA) Africa [7]. (SSA) [7].

These are some of the key reasons why rail freight traffic in Africa accounts for only 7% of the Nowadays,global total. most In the d caseeveloping of passenger countries traffic, this are share accelerating falls to 2% [9 the,10]. development of their railway transport systems.Nowadays, However, most developing they have countries (i) the are existing accelerating systems the development in a rather of weak theirrailway condition transport; (ii) limited financial systems.support However,; (iii) a lack they haveof knowledge (i) the existing in systems planning in a ratherand developing weak condition; such (ii) limitedsystems financial; (iv) limited informationsupport; on (iii) the a interactionlack of knowledge between in planning society, and developing economic such development systems; (iv) limited and railway information transport systems; (v)on theno interactionclear information between society, on the economic total impact development of railway and railway transport transport on the systems; environment, (v) no clear human information on the total impact of railway transport on the environment, human health, while the health, whilerelated the knowledge related knowledge (sciences) and (sciences) technologies and are changingtechnologies very rapidly. are changing very rapidly. Kenya’s intracity rail network (see Figure2) is a single diesel track operating only during peak hours i.e., to the central business district (CBD) in the morning and from CBD in the evening. Currently, the world is facing a very serious problem—climate change—that has defined the environmental protection to the frontline with agencies, policymakers, regulators, stakeholders’ teams defining ambitious goals to reduce emissions. This is undertaken by either by using simple innovative solutions e.g., improving existing technologies or rethinking new disruptive concepts. The need for efficient and sustainable intracity transportation system has now become indispensable in developing economies such as Kenya. Usually, electric trains are highly preferred for commuter rail service. However, full railway electrification is often applied to heavily-used routes on which the density of traffic is sufficient to justify the high fixed costs. For developing countries like Kenya, however, the availability of adequate electricity is a crucial consideration. This paper discusses and develops an applicable approach to support the policymakers and stakeholders taking part in the creation of strategic development plans for future, sustainable railway systems.

Figure 2. Diesel intracity rail Kenya.

Kenya’s intracity rail network (see Figure 2) is a single diesel track operating only during peak hours i.e., to the central business district (CBD) in the morning and from CBD in the evening. Currently, the world is facing a very serious problem—climate change—that has defined the environmental protection to the frontline with agencies, policymakers, regulators, stakeholders’ teams defining ambitious goals to reduce emissions. This is undertaken by either by using simple innovative solutions e.g., improving existing technologies or rethinking new disruptive concepts. The need for efficient and sustainable intracity transportation system has now become indispensable in developing economies such as Kenya. Usually, electric trains are highly preferred for commuter rail service. However, full railway electrification is often applied to heavily-used routes on which the Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 20

Figure 1. Rail traffic density in countries of Sub Sahara Africa (SSA) [7].

Nowadays, most developing countries are accelerating the development of their railway transport systems. However, they have (i) the existing systems in a rather weak condition; (ii) limited financial support; (iii) a lack of knowledge in planning and developing such systems; (iv) limited information on the interaction between society, economic development and railway transport systemsSustainability; (v)2020 no, clear12, 3572 information on the total impact of railway transport on the environment, human3 of 21 health, while the related knowledge (sciences) and technologies are changing very rapidly.

Figure 2. Diesel intracity rail Kenya.Figure 2. Diesel intracity rail Kenya. 2. Preliminary Review Kenya’s intracity rail network (see Figure 2) is a single diesel track operating only during peak hoursNowadays, i.e., to the the central overall business goal of alldistrict the stakeholders, (CBD) in the visionaries, morning and policymakers from CBD in aim the towards evening. a Currentlysustainable, the future. world The is most facing commonly a very used serious definition problem of sustainability—climate change is [11—]: “that meeting has defined the needs the of environmentalthe present without protection compromising to the frontline the ability with of future agencies, generations policymakers, to meet regulators,their own needs”. stakeholders’ Taking teamthis approachs defining createsambitious a balance goals to in reduce the economy, emissions. environment, This is undertaken and society. by e Fromither by a broader using simple point innovativeof view, [12 solutions] the future e.g. depends, improving on theexisting available technologies natural or resources, rethinking built new infrastructure disruptive concepts. (such as The the needlarge f energyor efficient generation and sustainable stations), intracity technological transportation development, system environment, has now become economy, indispensable and society. in develThis futureoping economies vision is controlled such as Kenya. by the Usually, strategic electric actions trains that are highly derived preferred from an for estimation commuter of rail the service.current situation,However, technologicalfull railway electrification foresight and is demand often applied forecast, to andheavily are- definedused routes for a on future which that the is intended to be attained. Of course, the process of the development and realisation of the future is only a partly controllable, stochastic process [13]. Therefore, the strategic actions must be redefined regularly, based on the actual realised state of development. The indicators in Table1 control progress in such a development process. The indicators list some examples that can be applied when managing future sustainable developments of the railway systems in developing countries. The railway system, along with other transportation systems, are major deterministic elements of future developments. Therefore, their development involves objects of strategic management. Unfortunately, strategic management describes simplified methods for creating the mission, objectives, strategies, tactics, and actions. They are applicable when the time horizon is relatively short, and the environment, including the economy, societies, technologies, and financing are relatively stable, and only change predictably. In the case of planning railway system developments, the time horizon must be increased to a minimum of 20–30 years, during which the different elements determining the future might change considerably, even radically and/or in unpredictable ways. According to our preliminary studies, the major characteristics defining future systems are demand, accessibility, and affordability. Herein, the authors of this paper use simple definitions of these terms. Demand is the needs of customers (people/societies or companies/economy) for a given product or service, where the customers are willing to pay for it. Accessibility means the given product or service is available to use and is accessible. Here, it means that the customer can reach and use the railway system. Finally, the products or services are affordable, if the price of the service and fees are acceptable by the customers. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3572 4 of 21

Table 1. Some important and commonly used indicators.

Societal Economic Environmental Emission—value per year or per Population density—people per area Per capita GDP unit of travel distance Productivity—railway transport Mobility—travels per year sector’s contribution to GDP, or GDP Noise—dB and/or affected areas per employment Education level—the ratio of people having Efficiency (energy)—the energy used Greenhouse gas emission—value higher education in transport as kJ/pkm or kJ/tkm per year or unit of work External effects—like health Unemployment rate Safety—accident rate damages caused by chemical and noise pollution Total environmental effect—total GINI—measures the inequality of income Cost—total life cycle cost Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW life cycle environmental load4 of 20 Built systems Technical—technological Natural resources In theLand case used forof transportplanning per railway work system developments, the time horizonHuman mu resource—direct,st be increased to a Fleet capacity, size, age minimum of performed20–30 years, (yearly) during which the different elements determining indirectthe future employment might change Total infrastructure cost per work considerably, even radically and/or in unpredictableTransport performed ways. per year Used fossil fuel performed According to our preliminary studies, the major characteristics defining future systems are Accessibility of provided service Energy generation mix—% of used Mass of the vehicle as % of total mass demand,(accessibility accessibility, of railway and stations) affordability. Herein, the authors of this paperclean use or simple renewable definitions energy of these terms. Demand is the needs of customersBreakthrough (people/societies innovation or companies/economy) for a given Vehicle empty weight Capacity problems—delays project—support % of total research, product or service, where the customers are willing to pay for it. Accessibilityper passengers means the given development and innovation product or service is available to use and is accessible. Here, it means that the customer can reach and The ecological footprint of the Implementation of available high use the railwayDoor-to door system. (travel) Finally, time/speed the products or services are affordable, if thetransport price of system the andservice and technology and emerging technologies fees are acceptable by the customers. infrastructure It can be understood that demand is increasing with a growing population or economy. AccessibilityIt can be depends understood on that infrastructural demand is increasing development with aand growing required population investments. or economy. Affordability Accessibility is a functiondepends of on the infrastructural total cost of development operation and and the required income investments.of customers. Affordability Accessibility is and a function affordability of the cantotal be cost supported of operation by technolog and the incomeical development, of customers. enabling Accessibility more andefficient, affordability greener, can safer be and supported available by productstechnological or services. development, enabling more efficient, greener, safer and available products or services. The legal legal framework framework plays plays a vital a vital role role in the in development the development of future of systems.future systems. For example, For example, demand demanddepends depends not only not on theonly growth on the of growth population, of population but also, onbut the also education on the education and health and level, health available level, avajobs,ilable and migration.jobs, and migration. Accessibility Accessibility may receive may support receive from support the common from the budget common or other budget government or other governmentincome from income the taxation from system. the taxation Affordability system. Affordability depends not onlydepends on technological not only on development, technological development,i.e., operational i.e., cost operational reduction, cost but alsoreduction on the, but budgets also on of peoplethe budget whos intendof people to travel.who intend However, to travel. such However,a so-called s traveluch a so budget-called also travel depends budget on also the depends taxation systems.on the taxation systems. All these features might be summarized in a complex task,task, as shown in Figure3 3..

Figure 3. Major elementsFigure determining 3. Major elements the future determining rail systems the. future rail systems.

The methodology methodology developed developed and and applied applied contains contains tools tools for estimating for estimating and handling and handling these aspects these aspectsshown inshown Figure in3 Figure. For this 3. For purpose, this purpose, the so-called the so- driverscalled drivers are applied. are applied. Drivers Drivers are indicators are indicators that that show the actual state of the realization of the plans or development and can be used to estimate the required future aspects. As it is known, GDP is a commonly used indicator for defining the state of the economy. Of course, other indicators such as globalization, the volume of exports, imports, etc., can also be used. Society can be characterized by the population, population density, wages, personal incomes, etc. Financing means the total GDP and the amount of funds usable for developments, etc. Technology is an interesting area. At first, it can be characterized by the number of production units. On the other hand, it is important to include efficiency, the cost of production, cost of operation, total costs including externalities and the impact on the environment, etc. As it had been underlined already, the legal framework is included in the overall system of strategic management. Governments, under pressure from stakeholders, may (must) define the legal status, and through it, the future development of the economy, society, technology, and future systems. For example, through the taxation system, the profitability of companies, the net income of people and the availability of required financial support for a common purpose can be controlled. On the other hand, using tax revenue to support the growth of the population, support the education Sustainability 2020, 12, 3572 5 of 21 show the actual state of the realization of the plans or development and can be used to estimate the required future aspects. As it is known, GDP is a commonly used indicator for defining the state of the economy. Of course, other indicators such as globalization, the volume of exports, imports, etc., can also be used. Society can be characterized by the population, population density, wages, personal incomes, etc. Financing means the total GDP and the amount of funds usable for developments, etc. Technology is an interesting area. At first, it can be characterized by the number of production units. On the other hand, it is important to include efficiency, the cost of production, cost of operation, total costs including externalities and the impact on the environment, etc. As it had been underlined already, the legal framework is included in the overall system of strategic management. Governments, under pressure from stakeholders, may (must) define the legal status, and through it, the future development of the economy, society, technology, and future systems. For example, through the taxation system, the profitability of companies, the net income of people and the availability of required financial support for a common purpose can be controlled. On the other hand, using tax revenue to support the growth of the population, support the education and health systems, develop infrastructure, support the use of emerging technologies (like electric cars, energy-saving, etc.) may have priority during budget redistribution. A general methodology was developed. It was constructed in a bottom-up way, and it is open at the top to include additional unique methods to consider further aspects influencing the future sustainable development of transport systems; here specifically, the railway transport. As can be understood, the foundation of all modern states and societies is the system of law. Generally speaking, “law is one of several techniques people use to prevent or resolve conflicts” [14]. One of the oldest codified systems of law was engraved in stone in old Babylon. The Code of Hammurabi, after King Hammurabi (reign 1792–1750 B.C.), described more than 300 laws to create a balance between people, first economic units and power actors (king) [15]. It was dealing with homicide, assault, divorce, debt, adoption, tradesman’s fees, agricultural practices, and even disputes regarding the brewing of beer. Here, the agricultural practices called for particular attention due to the development and introduction of irrigation water management, and therefore, the requirements for procedural regulation had also appeared. The regulation ensures a balance between water users. The modern legal framework has the same objectives. However, such a system of law has to be developed, which makes a balance between the interests of the economy, society, sustainability, and the future generations’ interests. Of course, all the laws must be harmonized, considering technological development. Generally, it is challenging to predict how technology will transform society, economy, and government. Nevertheless, as Australian Information Commissioner John McMillan defined [16]: “We can, however, be guided by the dramatic administrative justice changes that have occurred over the past forty years, which point to the inevitability of further change in a digital age.” The legal framework plays a major part in the development of an environment supporting innovation while also taking into account sustainability [17,18]. Therefore, such an approach has a crucial role, especially in developing countries [19,20]. Developing countries have started to develop their codes supporting their interest in the last 10–25 years. Developing countries have initiated extensive legislation process, including the protection of their resources. For example, Kenya tries to solve the conflicts around oil revenue allocation by improving stakeholder responsibility [21]. There is no unique formal model of the legislation process. Policymakers may choose the best practice from descriptions of the legal framework available, even on the internet, and adapt it to the actual environment and strategic goals defined. According to Figure4, legislation is a basis for the railway system’s strategic development. The practice of regulation was analysed, including the operation and developments of different high level, intermediate and developing countries with the aim of finding examples for developing countries. Most of the African countries can follow the practice of intermediate countries in railway developments. Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 20 and health systems, develop infrastructure, support the use of emerging technologies (like electric cars, energy-saving, etc.) may have priority during budget redistribution. A general methodology was developed. It was constructed in a bottom-up way, and it is open at the top to include additional unique methods to consider further aspects influencing the future sustainable development of transport systems; here specifically, the railway transport. As can be understood, the foundation of all modern states and societies is the system of law. Generally speaking, “law is one of several techniques people use to prevent or resolve conflicts” [14]. One of the oldest codified systems of law was engraved in stone in old Babylon. The Code of Hammurabi, after King Hammurabi (reign 1792–1750 B.C.), described more than 300 laws to create a balance between people, first economic units and power actors (king) [15]. It was dealing with homicide, assault, divorce, debt, adoption, tradesman’s fees, agricultural practices, and even disputes regarding the brewing of beer. Here, the agricultural practices called for particular attention due to the development and introduction of irrigation water management, and therefore, the requirements for procedural regulation had also appeared. The regulation ensures a balance between water users. The modern legal framework has the same objectives. However, such a system of law has to be developed, which makes a balance between the interests of the economy, society, sustainability, and the future generations’ interests. Of course, all the laws must be harmonized, considering technological development. Generally, it is challenging to predict how technology will transform society, economy, and government. Nevertheless, as Australian Information Commissioner John McMillan defined [16]: “We can, however, be guided by the dramatic administrative justice changes that have occurred over the past forty years, which point to the inevitability of further change in a digital age.” The legal framework plays a major part in the development of an environment supporting innovation while also taking into account sustainability [17,18]. Therefore, such an approach has a crucial role, especially in developing countries [19,20]. Developing countries have started to develop their codes supporting their interest in the last 10–25 years. Developing countries have initiated extensive legislation process, including the protection of their resources. For example, Kenya tries to solve the conflicts around oil revenue allocation by improving stakeholder responsibility [21]. There is no unique formal model of the legislation process. Policymakers may choose the best practice from descriptions of the legal framework available, even on the internet, and adapt it to the actual environment and strategic goals defined. According to Figure 4, legislation is a basis for the railway system's strategic development. The practice of regulation was analysed, including the operation and developments of different high level, intermediate and developing countries with the aim of finding examples for developing countries.Sustainability Most of2020 the, 12 African, 3572 countries can follow the practice of intermediate countries6 of in 21 railway developments.

Figure 4. “Tetris” of the developed methodology. Figure 4. “Tetris” of the developed methodology. For instance, in Hungary, the first law article (1836XXV) dealing with railway development For wasinstance, accepted in byHungary, the Hungarian the first Diet law (parliament) article (1836XXV) in 1836 [22]. dealing This act hadwith at railway least three development important was acceptedprovisions: by the Hungarian (i) it allows the Diet expropriation (parliament) of required in 1836 lands, [22] (ii) it. prescribed This act that had everybody at least is three liable for important paying for the service, and (iii) it gave a series of tax debits to support the railway system development companies. The first railway line in Hungary was opened in 1846. In 1848, Earl Istvan Szechenyi defined a plan for railway developments and underlined the role of railway systems in the economy and the operation of the country, supporting market expansion and warfare. The first railways were developed with the use of private capital, while since the beginning, the state participation in railway development has been in the order of today. Since 1867, the state had conceptually developed and established the Hungarian Royal State Railways. In 1910, the total length of the Hungarian railway was more than 20 thousand kilometres. After the First World War, the country lost nearly two thirds of the railways, and the new border of the country has cut the railway systems at 49 points. Due to this, the Hungarian railways became a centralised system with the capital in the centre. However, the railway developments have not stopped. In 1932, practically all the railways were operated under a state company. Between 1932–1947, the only system in the world, the Budapest–Hegyeshalom line was electrified with industrial frequency. The locomotive industry of Hungary has worked at a world recognised level [23]. After the Second World War, the Hungarian railway system had two different faces. More than 20 percent of the lines were electrified, while another 20 percent were closed [24]. After joining the European Union in 2004, the EU railway policy and standards were also applied in Hungary [25,26]. In the last decade, intensive developments have started. The practice in Hungary in market competitive developments of the road and railways system may show good ways for African countries, and especially for Kenya. It is most interesting how the country has not followed the forced privatisation started in the middle of 1980s in European countries, trying to keep the independence of the Hungarian railway. This has made its development process for the last decade fully harmonised and its regulations in accordance with EU requirements, especially in the field of authorisation. The sustainable future should be based on the society, economy, and technological development. Societies and economies of developing countries are in a transition that can be characterized by the indicators. In developing countries for the last 20–40 years, the population has been increasing rapidly. According to the World Bank Data [27], for example, the population of Angola, Congo, Kenya, or Nigeria has doubled in the 25 years after 1990. In the same period, the percentage of people enrolling in secondary education has increased by 1.8–2.5 times. All the developing countries try to increase the Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 20

provisions: (i) it allows the expropriation of required lands, (ii) it prescribed that everybody is liable for paying for the service, and (iii) it gave a series of tax debits to support the railway system development companies. The first railway line in Hungary was opened in 1846. In 1848, Earl Istvan Szechenyi defined a plan for railway developments and underlined the role of railway systems in the economy and the operation of the country, supporting market expansion and warfare. The first railways were developed with the use of private capital, while since the beginning, the state participation in railway development has been in the order of today. Since 1867, the state had conceptually developed and established the Hungarian Royal State Railways. In 1910, the total length of the Hungarian railway was more than 20 thousand kilometres. After the First World War, the country lost nearly two thirds of the railways, and the new border of the country has cut the railway systems at 49 points. Due to this, the Hungarian railways became a centralised system with the capital in the centre. However, the railway developments have not stopped. In 1932, practically all the railways were operated under a state company. Between 1932–1947, the only system in the world, the Budapest–Hegyeshalom line was electrified with industrial frequency. The locomotive industry of Hungary has worked at a world recognised level [23]. After the Second World War, the Hungarian railway system had two different faces. More than 20 percent of the lines were electrified, while another 20 percent were closed [24]. After joining the European Union in 2004, the EU railway policy and standards were also applied in Hungary [25,26]. In the last decade, intensive developments have started. The practice in Hungary in market competitive developments of the road and railways system may show good ways for African countries, and especially for Kenya. It is most interesting how the country has not followed the forced privatisation started in the middle of 1980s in European countries, trying to keep the independence of the Hungarian railway. This has made its development process for the last decade fully harmonised and its regulations in accordance with EU requirements, especially in the field of authorisation. The sustainable future should be based on the society, economy, and technological development. Societies and economies of developing countries are in a transition that can be characterized by the indicators. In developing countries for the last 20–40 years, the population has been increasing rapidly. According to the World Bank Data [27], for example, the population of Angola, Congo, Sustainability 2020, 12, 3572 7 of 21 Kenya, or Nigeria has doubled in the 25 years after 1990. In the same period, the percentage of people enrolling in secondary education has increased by 1.8–2.5 times. All the developing countries try to positionincrease of the the position middle class. of the In middle Kenya, class.the income In Kenya, share heldthe income by the middle share heldclass increasedby the m fromiddle 10.7% class inincreased the year from 1992 10.7% up to 13.4%in the year in 2005. 1992 up to 13.4% in 2005. The developing developing countries’ countries’ economies economies intensely intensely depend depend on world on world progress, progress, but their but GDP their growth GDP (annualgrowth (annual percentage) percentage is 3–10) times is 3–10 greater times (ingreater absolute (in absolute value) (Figure value)5 ).(Figure 5).

Angola Congo, Dem. Rep. 30 20 Kenya Nigeria 10 World 0 -10 -20

-30

1985 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Figure 5.5. The ratio of GDP growth of selected African countries compared to world GDP growth Sustainability(annual(annual 20 20 changes)changes), 12, x FOR (data(data PEER sourcesource REVIEW WorldWorld BankBank [[27]27]).). 7 of 20

TechnologTechnologicalical development supportsupport inin developingdeveloping countries countries is is at at a a rather rather low low level. level. Countries Countries of ofthe the Sub-Saharan Sub-Saharan Africa Africa region region have have research research and and development development expenditure expenditure as a as part a part of GDP, of GDP, much much less lessthan than the developed the developed or fast-growing or fast-growing countries, countries like China, like China (Figure (Figure6). Speciﬁcally, 6). Specifically, most of most the African of the Africacountriesn countries spend less spend than less 0.5% than of 0.5 GDP% of on GDP research on research and development. and development.

FigureFigure 6. 6. ResearchResearch and and development development spending spending as as a a p percentageercentage of of GDP GDP in in selected selected countries countries (data (data source:source: World World Bank Bank [27] [27]).).

TheThe future future developments developments depend depend on on the the available available financing, financing, including including the the state state or or public public and and privateprivate sources, sources, as as well well as as the the public-private public-private partnerships. partnerships. The available The available financing financing supports supports are defined are definedin the legal in the framework, legal framework even in the, even case ofin sourcingthe case fromof sourcing the state from budget. the There state arebudget. four levels There of are funding four levelsthat can of funding be distinguished: that can be (i)distinguished: international (i) actions, international (ii) state actions, (government (ii) state/ European(government Commission)/European Cdecisionsommission) based decision on codes,s based (iii) on sources codes, provided (iii) source bys stateprovided and private by state companies, and private organisations, companies, organisations,foundations, and foundations, (iv) unsolicited and (iv) gifts. unsolicited Actions and gifts. legislation Actions manage and legislation finances. manage Actions finances. might be Actionsdefined might on international be defined oron national international levels. or Nowadays, national levels. some Nowad actionsays, are some developed actions and are coordinated developed andon the coordinated highest international on the highest level byinternational the United levelNations, by thelike Unitedthe Financing Nations, for likeDevelopment the Financing Program. for DevelopmentThe report on progressProgram. evaluation The report [28 on] defines progress exactly evaluation the challenges [28] defines of the exactly program: the “Thechallenges 2030 Agenda of the program:for Sustainable “The 2030 Development, Agenda for the Sustainable Paris Agreement Development, on climate the changeParis Agreement and the Addis on climate Ababa change Action andAgenda the Addis on Financing Ababa Actionfor Development Agenda on lay Financing out an ambitious for Development set of commitments lay out an ambitious to create a set more of cinclusiveommitments global to create economy a more that inclusive will provide global opportunities economy that for will all peopleprovide and opportunities ensure a healthier for all people planet andfor futureensure generations”. a healthier planet for future generations”. Between the public, national, and private strategic planning, the difference is indicated by the size of the concerned set of stakeholders. The public and national plans must be harmonized with the leaders of the economic and societal communities. Therefore, the national plans usually are developed by special committees or institutions on behalf of governments. Therefore, all the methods of formalized models of strategic management (summarised by [29]) can be applied, but all the plans need to be adapted to the given economy and society, and the goals defined by the vision of state [30] or international bodies [31].

Between the public, national, and private strategic planning, the diﬀerence is indicated by the size of the concerned set of stakeholders. The public and national plans must be harmonized with the leaders of the economic and societal communities. Therefore, the national plans usually are developed by special committees or institutions on behalf of governments. Therefore, all the methods of formalized models of strategic management (summarised by [29]) can be applied, but all the plans need to be adapted to the given economy and society, and the goals deﬁned by the vision of state [30] or international bodies [31].

3. Applied Methodology The forecast, foresight, business models and business plans all support the development of the strategy for achieving the goals of visions. Principally, the vision—the required set of actions resulting in the predefined vision—can be converted into a roadmap [32]. Foresight [13,33] is the knowledge, or sound judgment, into a future event that may or may not occur. This is an act of looking forward. It provides general input for technology policy. As most developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, spend limited amounts on research and development, they could potentially use the results of available technology foresight [7,34]. Forecast is a prediction of the future based on estimation. It uses methods from simple trend analysis to the complex models dealing with an extensive series of drivers, i.e., indicators (see Table1) having a determining influence on the forecasting of products or services. While there are a considerable amount of forecast methods available, the real problems, such as demand forecast in a given mode of travel, require more studies and the adaption of methodologies [35,36]. The reason for this is the lack of required historical data, missing (or even false) data in statistics, therefore, real drivers might be different depending on the real economic condition, societal structure and culture, supporting laws, etc. The time horizon, for which the forecast is planned, also has a significant effect on accuracy. In particular, the long-range predictions may have unexpected, understandable errors. Therefore, the philosophy of a methodology developed for forecasting the demand in railway developments is recommended (Figure7). The forecast methodology described in Figure7. Has four major sections: Concept development—the definition of objectives, requirements, analysis of available forecasting software, input data, selection of drivers. Preliminary actions—input classification, harmonisation and completion based on situational analysis, the study of the available foresight, investigation and estimation of demand, accessibility and affordability, Medium-term forecast—drivers forecast, the definition of the dummies, the study of the economic cycle effects, results analysis. Long-term forecast—using dummies from vision papers, strategic plans, “S”-curve (Gompertz model), study changes and the influence of changes in user requirements (like door-to-door speed, or value of time). Herein, harmonization of inputs means that the missing data that can be estimated using the trends found in historical data of the regions having analogical economic and societal performance. The second, long term forecast uses the “S”-curve model because practice shows that using available historical data may not forecast the correct results, and the methods applied in the first short term forecast cannot be accepted. Herein, the term “cannot be accepted” means, for example, that the education level in the population after 2035 will be reduced in case of using the available software for forecasting this indicator. In the case of the short-term forecast, the classic management methods can be readily applied. However, future technology allows for the development of radically new and even unconventional solutions. The IDEA-E Hungarian national project [37] deals with the development of such radically new, disruptive technologies. Developing and implementing radically new, unconventional solutions require the so-called “out of the box thinking” [38]. According to the Association of American Sustainability 2020, 12, 3572 9 of 21 Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 20

Railroad’s opinion [39], future rail transport will use hundreds of sensors built into the tracks, and [35,36]. The reason for this is the lack of required historical data, missing (or even false) data in vehicles and that will allow the automated inspections of tracks, advance fuel/energy management, statistics,the therefore, so-called positivereal drivers train control.might be All different of these will depending improve the on system’s the real e economicﬃciency. In condition, the case of societal structuresuch and highly culture, automated supporting systems, laws, the roleetc. of The operators time horizon, shifted from for active which monitoring the forecast and control is planned to , also has a significantpassive monitoring, effect on whichaccuracy. might In even particular, be controlled the fromlong considerable-range predictions distances. may Therefore, have unexpected, new understandableelements appear,errors. such Therefore, as monitoring the thephilosophy mental condition of a methodology of operators [40 ,41developed]. The fully autonomousfor forecasting the train and railway transport require relevant codes to deﬁne the responsibility for risk detection and demand in railway developments is recommended (Figure 7). elimination [42].

Figure 7. Flow diagram of recommended forecasting methodology [36]. Figure 7. Flow diagram of recommended forecasting methodology [36]. It seems that future technologies will have improved efficiency, safety and will reduce the Theenvironmental forecast methodology impact of future described transport in systems.Figure 7. The has investigation four major of sections: these technological effects Conceptrequires development the development—the ofgeneral definition approaches of objectives, at the system requirements, level and specific analysis methods on of the available sub-system, vehicle level. Taking into account the technological advancements, effortless adaptability forecasting software, input data, selection of drivers. of future systems and constrained electrical generation in developing countries in addition to the Preliminarydemand forecast actions on— majorinput corridors classification, in Nairobi harmonisation Kenya, i.e., inbound and person completion trips in peak based one houron situational by analysis,matatu the study (A Swahili of the term available referring foresight, to a minibus) investigation and the bus onand 2030 estimation (the do nothing of demand, case), proved accessibility and affordability, Medium-term forecast—drivers forecast, the definition of the dummies, the study of the economic cycle effects, results analysis. Long-term forecast—using dummies from vision papers, strategic plans, “S”-curve (Gompertz model), study changes and the influence of changes in user requirements (like door-to-door speed, or value of time). Herein, harmonization of inputs means that the missing data that can be estimated using the trends found in historical data of the regions having analogical economic and societal performance. The second, long term forecast uses the “S”-curve model because practice shows that using available historical data may not forecast the correct results, and the methods applied in the first short term Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 20

forecast cannot be accepted. Herein, the term “cannot be accepted” means, for example, that the education level in the population after 2035 will be reduced in case of using the available software for forecasting this indicator. In the case of the short-term forecast, the classic management methods can be readily applied. However, future technology allows for the development of radically new and even unconventional solutions. The IDEA-E Hungarian national project [37] deals with the development of such radically new, disruptive technologies. Developing and implementing radically new, unconventional solutions require the so-called “out of the box thinking” [38]. According to the Association of American Railroad’s opinion [39], future rail transport will use hundreds of sensors built into the tracks, and vehicles and that will allow the automated inspections of tracks, advance fuel/energy management, the so-called positive train control. All of these will improve the system’s efficiency. In the case of such highly automated systems, the role of operators shifted from active monitoring and control to passive monitoring, which might even be controlled from considerable distances. Therefore, new elements appear, such as monitoring the mental condition of operators [40,41]. The fully autonomous train and railway transport require relevant codes to define the responsibility for risk detection and elimination [42]. It seems that future technologies will have improved efficiency, safety and will reduce the Sustainability 2020, 12, 3572 10 of 21 environmental impact of future transport systems. The investigation of these technological effects requires the development of general approaches at the system level and specific methods on the sub- system,the necessityvehicle level. to plan Taking for strategies. into account These the strategies technological include the advancements, train-tram hybrid effortless that would adaptability enable of futurethe systems recovery andof energy constrained through regenerative electrical generation braking (whereby in developing during train countries braking, in kinetic addition energy to the demanddissipated forecast is recovered)on major corridors and timely in maintenance. Nairobi Kenya, The i.e., Hipot inbound device hasperson been trips proposed in peak to improveone hour by the overall eﬃciency of the rail system, lowering the speciﬁc energy consumption, especially in matatu (A Swahili term referring to a minibus) and the bus on 2030 (the do nothing case), proved the electro-mechanical components of the system. necessity to plan for strategies. These strategies include the train-tram hybrid that would enable the From the selection chart, each urban transportation system has a covering range of transportation recovercapacityy of seeenergy Figure through8. If the future regenerative demand braking forecast is (whereby close to the during maximum train capacity braking, of the kinetic system, energy dissipatedthat system is recovered) should not and be selected timely providingmaintenance a margin. The ofHipo the capacity.t device Whenhas been forecasting proposed passengers to improve the overallper hour efficiency per direction of (PPHPD) the rail [43 system] as part, lowering of the planned the specific corridor which energy exceeds consumption, 16,000 (see especially Figure9) in electroin- themechanical future, bus components rapid transport of the (BRT) system cannot. be recommended.

SustainabilityFigure 20 8.20 Person, 12, x FOR tripFigure PEER by matatu 8. REVIEWUrban and transportation bus at peak system hour (2030, selection Do chart nothing (Redrawn case),(Redrawn [43]). [43]). 10 of 20

Figure 9.Figure Urban 9. transportationPerson trip by matatu system and selection bus at peak chart hour (Redrawn (2030, Do [43] nothing). case), (Redrawn [43]).

FromThe the projected selection future chart, population each of Nairobi urban is transportation expected to exceed system 10 million, has therefore, a covering the viability range of transportationtrain-tram incapacity hybrid adoptionsee Figure was 9. exploredIf the future by adapting demand the forecast European is close studies to checklist the maximum [44]. Table capacity2 demonstrating the dot morphological matrix. of the system, that system should not be selected providing a margin of the capacity. When forecasting passengers per hour per direction (PPHPD) [43] as part of the planned corridor which exceeds 16,000 (see Figure 8) in the future, bus rapid transport (BRT) cannot be recommended. The projected future population of Nairobi is expected to exceed 10 million, therefore, the viability train-tram in hybrid adoption was explored by adapting the European studies checklist [44]. Table 2 demonstrating the dot morphological matrix.

Table 2. Morphological dot matrix for applicability of train-tram hybrid for Kenya.

Features Country’s energy source More than 80% renewable More than 50% renewable Non-Renewable Traction power Inadequate Electrified infrastructure Third rail system/infrastructure availability City characteristic Low population Average population High population Poor State of urban rail Accessible Well capacity utilisation performance Tramway corridor In operation No existing network New network due Existing heavy rail vehicles Conventional trains Electric trains Diesel-electric trains Future adaptability to e-mobility Charging station Regenerative braking advancement in technology Train-Tram hybrid

Replacing the diesel commuter trains serving short, urban routes with electric trams significantly helps to reduce energy consumption, and consequently, emission levels in terms of Well- to-wheels (WTT) and Tank-to-wheels (TTW). The definitions of energy consumption and emissions following EN 16258 standards: • Well-to-tank (WTT) (energy processes): Recording energy consumption and all indirect emissions from fuel provision from the well to the vehicle tank. Energy consumption includes losses during the production of the energy sources, e.g., in high-voltage lines. • Tank-to-wheels (TTW) (vehicle processes): Recording all direct emissions from vehicle operation. Consumption here refers to final energy consumption. • Well-to-wheels (WTW) (vehicle and energy processes): The sum of well-to-tank and tank-to- wheels, i.e., direct and indirect emissions. Consumption here refers to primary energy consumption, which, besides the end energy consumption, includes all losses from the upstream chain. SustainabilitySustainability 20 2020,20 12, ,1 x2 ,FOR x FOR PEER PEER REVIEW REVIEW 10 10of of20 20 SustainabilitySustainabilitySustainability 20 202020, 20,1 12202, ,x ,x FOR1 FOR2, x PEERFOR PEER PEER REVIEW REVIEW REVIEW 1010 ofof10 2020 of 20 SustainabilitySustainabilitySustainability 20 2020 20, 20,1 122, , 1,x 2x ,FOR FORx FOR PEER PEER PEER REVIEW REVIEW REVIEW 1010 10 ofof of2020 20

FigureFigure 9. Urban9. Urban transportation transportation system system selection selection chart chart (Redrawn (Redrawn [43] [43]). ). FigureFigureFigure 9. 9. Urban Urban 9. Urban transportation transportation transportation system system system selection selection selection chart chart chart (Redrawn (Redrawn (Redrawn [43] [43]). ).[43] ). FigureFigureFigure 9.9. Urban9.Urban Urban transportationtransportation transportation systemsystem system selectionselection selection chartchart chart (Redrawn(Redrawn (Redrawn [43][43] [43]).). ). FromFrom the the selection selection chart, chart, each each urban urban transportation transportation system system has has a a covering covering range range of of FromFromFrom the the the selection selection selection chart, chart, chart, each each each urban urban urban transportation transportation transportation system system system has has has a a covering covering a covering range range range of of of transportationtransportationFromFromFrom the the the selectioncapacity selection selectioncapacity see chart, chart,see chart,Figure Figure each each each9. 9If .urban urbantheIf urbanthe future future transportation transportation transportation demand demand forecast forecast system system system is isclose has hasclose has to a a to the a covering covering the coveringmaximum maximum range rangerange capacity capacity of of of transportationtransportationtransportation capacitycapacity capacity seesee FigureseeFigure Figure 99. . IfIf 9 thethe. If futurethefuture future demanddemand demand forecastforecast forecast isis close close is close toto thethe to maximumthemaximum maximum capacitycapacity capacity transportationtransportationoftransportation of the the system, system, capacitycapacity capacity that that system see see systemsee FigureFigure Figure shoul shoul 99.. 9IfdIf. thedIfthe not the not futurefuture be future be selected demandselecteddemand demand providing forecast providingforecast forecast isis a closeisclose amargin close margin toto to the theof the of maximummaximum the maximum the capacity. capacity. capacitycapacity capacity When When ofof the theof thesystem, system, system, that that that system system system shoul shoul shouldd not notd not be be selected selectedbe selected providing providing providing a a margin margin a margin of of the the of thecapacity. capacity. capacity. When When When ofof forecastof the theforecast the system, system, system,inging passengers p that that assengers that system system system per per shoulhour shoul shoulhour dperd dper not not direction not direction be be be selected selected selected (PPHPD (PPHPD providing providing providing) [43]) [43] as asa apart amargin marginpart marginof ofthe the of of planned of theplanned the the capacity. capacity. capacity.corridor corridor When When which When which forecastforecastforecastinging pingpassengersassengers passengers perper hourperhour hour perper directionperdirection direction (PPHPD(PPHPD (PPHPD)) [43][43]) [43] asas part partas part ofof thethe of plannedtheplanned planned corridorcorridor corridor whichwhich which forecastforecastexceedsforecastexceedsinging ing16,000 p p16,000assengers assengerspassengers (see (see Figure perFigureper per hourhour 8) hour 8)in perinperthe perthe directionfuture,direction future,direction bus b(PPHPD(PPHPDus r(PPHPDapid rapid t)ransport) t[43][43]ransport) [43] asas as part(BRTpart part(BRT of)of cannot of )thethe cannot the plannedplanned plannedbe be recommended. recommended. corridorcorridor corridor whichwhich which exceedsexceedsexceeds 16,000 16,000 16,000 (see (see (seeFigure Figure Figure 8) 8) in in 8) the the in future, thefuture, future, b busus rb rapidusapid rapid t transportransport transport (BRT (BRT (BRT)) cannot cannot) cannot be be recommended. recommended. be recommended. exceedsexceedsexceedsThe 16,00016,000The 16,000 projected projected (see(see (see FigureFigure Figure future future 8)8) 8) inpopulationin populationin thethe the future,future, future, of bb ofusNairobius b us Nairobi rrapidapid rapid tistransportransport tis expectedransport expected (BRT(BRT (BRT to to)) exceed cannotcannot )exceed cannot 10bebe 10be recommended. million,recommended. recommended. million, therefore, therefore, the the SustainabilityTheThe The projected projected 2020 projected, 12 future, future 3572 future population population population of of Nairobi Nairobi of Nairobi isis expected expectedis expected to to exceed exceed to exceed 10 10 million, million, 10 million, therefore, therefore, therefore, the the the 11 of 21 viabilityviabilityTheTheThe projected projected train projected train-tram-tram future future in future inhybrid hybrid population population population adoption adoption of of was of Nairobi Nairobiwas Nairobi explored explored isis is expected expected by expected by adapting adapting to to to exceed exceedthe exceed the European European 10 10 10 million, million, million, studies studies therefore, therefore, therefore,checklist checklist the the[44] the[44] . . viabilityviabilityviability train train train--tramtram-tram in in hybrid hybrid in hybrid adoption adoption adoption was was wasexplored explored explored by by adapting adapting by adapting the the European theEuropean European studies studies studies checklist checklist checklist [44] [44] .[44] . . viabilityviabilityTableviabilityTable 2 traintrain demonstrat2 train demonstrat--tramtram-tram inining in hybridhybriding hybrid the the dot adoptionadoption dot adoption morphological morphological waswas was exploredexplored explored matrix. matrix. byby by adaptingadapting adapting thethe the EuropeanEuropean European studiesstudies studies checklistchecklist checklist [44][44] [44].. . TableTableTable 2 2 demonstrat demonstrat 2 demonstratinging the ingthe dot thedot morphological dotmorphological morphological matrix. matrix. matrix. TableTableTable 22 demonstratdemonstrat2 demonstratTableinging 2.ing Morphological thethe the dotdot dot morphologicalmorphological morphological dot matrix matrix.matrix. matrix. for applicability of train-tram hybrid for Kenya. TableTable 2. Morphological2. Morphological dot dot matrix matrix for for applicability applicability of oftrain train-tram-tram hybrid hybrid for for Kenya. Kenya. TableTableTable 2. 2. Morphological Morphological 2. Morphological dot dot matrix matrixdot matrix for for applicability applicabilityfor applicability of of train train of train--tramtram-tram hybrid hybrid hybrid for for Kenya. Kenya.for Kenya. TableTableTable 2.2. Morphological2.Morphological Morphological dotdot dot matrixmatrix matrix forfor for applicabilityapplicability applicability ofof oftraintrain trainFeatures--tramtram-tram hybridhybrid hybrid forfor for Kenya.Kenya. Kenya. FeaturesFeatures FeaturesFeaturesFeatures MoreFeaturesFeatures thanFeatures 50% Country’s energy source More than 80% renewable Non-Renewable Country’s energy source More than 80% renewable Morerenewable than 50% renewable Non-Renewable Country’s energy source MoreMoreMore than than than80% 80% 80%renewable renewable renewable More than 50% renewable Non-Renewable Country’sCountry’sCountry’s energy energy energy source source source MoreMore than than 80% 80% renewable renewable MoreMoreMore than than than50% 50% 50%renewable renewable renewable NonNon-Non-RenewableRenewable-Renewable Country’sCountry’sCountry’s energyenergy energy sourcesource source More than 80% renewable MoreMoreMore thanthan than 50%50% 50% renewablerenewable renewable NonNonNon--RenewableRenewable-Renewable Traction power TractionTraction power power InadequateInadequate Electrified infrastructure Third rail system/infrastructureTractionTractionTractionsystem power power power/ infrastructure availability ElectriﬁedElectrified infrastructure infrastructure ThirdThird rail rail system/infrastructureTractionTractionTraction powerpower power availability InadequateInadequateInadequate ElectrifiedElectrifiedElectrified infrastructure infrastructure infrastructure ThirdThirdThird rail rail rail system/infrastructuresystem/infrastructuresystem/infrastructure availability availability availability InadequateInadequateInadequate ElectrifiedElectrified infrastructure infrastructure ThirdThird rail rail system/infrastructuresystem/infrastructure availability availability Electrified infrastructure Third rail system/infrastructureCityCity characteristic characteristic availability LowLow population population AverageAverage population population HighHigh population population High population CityCity Citycharacteristic characteristic characteristicCity characteristic LowLow Lowpopulation population population AverageAverage AverageAverage population population population population HighHighHigh population population population CityCityCity characteristiccharacteristic characteristic LowLowLow populationpopulation population AverageAverageAverage populationpopulation population HighHigh population population PoorPoor State of urban rail Accessible Well capacity utilisation Poor State of urban rail Accessible Well capacity utilisation PoorPoorperformancePoor StateStateState of of urban urban of urban rail rail rail AccessibleAccessibleAccessible WellWellWell capacity capacity capacity utilisation utilisation utilisation performancePoorPoor StateState of ofurbanState urban ofrail urbanrail railAccessibleAccessible Well WellWell capacity capacity utilisation utilisation performanceperformanceperformance State of urban rail Accessible Well capacity utilisation performanceperformanceperformance No existing network TramwayTramway corridor corridor In Inoperation operation No existing network NewNew network network due due NoNo existing existingNo existing network network network TramwayTramwayTramway corridor Tramwaycorridor corridor corridor InIn operation operationIn operation NoNo existing existing network network NewNewNew network network network due due due TramwayTramwayTramway corridorcorridor corridor InIn In operationoperation operation No existing network NewNewNew networknetwork network duedue due Conventional trains ExistingExisting heavy Existingheavy rail rail vehicles heavy vehicles rail Conventional trains ElectricElectric trains trains DieselDiesel-electric-electric trains trains ExistingExistingExisting heavy heavy heavy rail rail vehicles railvehicles vehicles ConventionalConventionalConventional trains trains trains ElectricElectricElectricElectric trains trains trains trains DieselDiesel Diesel-electricDiesel--electricelectric-electric trains trains trains ExistingExisting heavy heavy rail railvehicles vehicles vehicles ConventionalConventional trains trains ElectricElectric trains trains DieselDiesel-electric-electric trains trains ExistingFuture heavy adaptability rail vehicles to Conventional trains Electric trains Diesel-electric trains Future adaptability to e-mobility Charging station Regenerative braking FutureFutureadvancementFuture adaptability adaptabilityFuture adaptability in adaptability totechnologyto to to e-mobility Charging station Regenerative braking advancementFutureFutureFuture adaptabilityadaptability adaptability in technology toto to ee--mobilitymobilitye-mobility ChargingChargingCharging station station station RegenerativeRegenerativeRegenerative braking braking braking advancementadvancementadvancement in in technologyadvancement technology in technology in ee--mobilitymobilitye-mobility ChargingCharging station station RegenerativeRegenerativeRegenerative braking braking braking advancementadvancement in intechnology technology Charging station Regenerative braking advancement in technology TrainTrain-Tram-Tram hybrid hybrid Train-Tram hybrid TrainTrain Train-Tram-Tram-Tram hybrid hybrid hybrid TrainTrain-Tram-Tram hybrid hybrid

ReplacingReplacing the the diesel diesel commuter commuter trains trains serving serving short, short, urban urban routes routes with with electric electric trams trams ReplacingReplacingReplacing the the the diesel diesel diesel commuter commuter commuter trains trains trains serving serving serving short, short, short, urban urban urban routes routes routes with with with electric electric electric trams trams trams significantlysignificantlyReplacingReplacingReplacing helps the thehelps the to diesel diesel toreduce diesel reduce commuter commuter energy commuter energy consumption, consumption, trains trains trains serving serving serving and and consequently, short, short, consequently, short, urban urban urban emission routes routesemission routes withlevels with withlevels electricin electric electricinterms terms of trams trams of tramsWell Well - - significantlysignificantlysignificantlyReplacing helps helps helps theto to reduce reduce dieselto reduce energy energy commuter energy consumption, consumption, consumption, trains serving and and andconsequently, consequently, short, consequently, urban emission emission routes emission levels levels with levels in electricin terms terms in terms of tramsof Well Well of Well- significantly- - significantlysignificantlytosignificantly-towheels-wheels (WTT) helps helps (WTT) helps to toand to reducereduceand reduceTank Tank energy energy-to energy--towheels-wheels consumption, consumption, consumption, (TTW) (TTW). . and and and consequently, consequently, consequently, emission emission emission levels levels levels in in interms terms terms of of ofWell Well Well-- - toto--wheelswheelsto-wheels (WTT) (WTT) (WTT) and and andTank Tank Tank--toto--wheels-wheelsto-wheels (TTW) (TTW) (TTW). . . helpstoto-to-wheelswheels-wheels toTheThe reduce (WTT) (WTT)d (WTT)efinitions definitions and energyand and Tank Tankof Tank ofenergy consumption, -energy-toto--to-wheelswheels- consumptionwheels consumption (TTW)(TTW) (TTW) and.. and. consequently, and emissions emissions following following emission EN EN levels 16258 16258 instandards standards terms of: : Well-to-wheels TheThe definitions definitions of energy of energy consumption consumption and and emissions emissions following following EN EN16258 16258 standards standards: : (WTT)TheThe Thed and efinitionsdefinitions d Tank-to-wheelsefinitions of of energy ofenergy energy consumption (TTW).consumption consumption and and andemissions emissions emissions following following following EN EN 16258EN 16258 16258 standards standards standards: : : • • TheWellWell definitions-to--totank-tank (WTT)of (WTT)energy (energy consumption (energy processes): processes): and emissions Recording Recording following energy energy EN consumption consumption 16258 standards and and : all all indirect indirect •• •Well WellTheWell--toto definitions--tanktank-to-tank (WTT) (WTT) (WTT) of (energyenergy (energy (energy consumption processes): processes): processes): Recording Recording and Recording emissions energy energy energy following consumption consumption consumption EN 16258 and and and all all standards: indirect all indirect indirect •• • WellWellemissionsWellemissions--toto--to-tanktank-tank from (WTT) (WTT)from (WTT) fuel fuel (energy (energyprovision (energyprovision processes): processes): from processes): from the the well Recording Recording well Recording to tothe the vehicle energy energyvehicle energy tank. consumptiontank. consumption consumption Energy Energy consumption consumption and and and all all all indirect indirect includes indirect includes emissionsemissionsemissions fromfrom from fuelfuel fuel provisionprovision provision fromfrom from thethe wellthewell well toto thethe to vehiclethevehicle vehicle tank.tank. tank. EnergyEnergy Energy consumptionconsumption consumption includesincludes includes emissionsemissionslossesemissionslosses during fromduringfrom from thefuelfuel thefuel production provisionprovision production provision fromfromof from ofthe the thethe energy the energy wellwell well sourcestoto sourcesto thethe the vehiclevehicle, e.g.,vehicle, e.g., in tank.tank. inhigh tank. high Energy-Energyvoltage Energy-voltage consumptionconsumption lines. consumption lines. includesincludes includes lossesWell-to-tanklosses during during the (WTT) theproduction production (energy of the processes):of theenergy energy sources Recording sources, e.g.,, e.g., in energy high in high-voltage consumption-voltage lines. lines. and all indirect emissions • losseslosseslosses during during during the the productionthe production production of of the ofthe energythe energy energy sources sources sources, e.g.,, e.g.,, e.g.,in in high inhigh high-voltage-voltage-voltage lines. lines. lines. fromlosses fuel during provision the production from the of wellthe energy to the sources vehicle, e.g., tank. in Energyhigh-voltage consumption lines. includes losses during the production of the energy sources, e.g., in high-voltage lines. Tank-to-wheels (TTW) (vehicle processes): Recording all direct emissions from vehicle operation. • Consumption here refers to final energy consumption. Well-to-wheels (WTW) (vehicle and energy processes): The sum of well-to-tank and tank-to-wheels, • i.e., direct and indirect emissions. Consumption here refers to primary energy consumption, which, besides the end energy consumption, includes all losses from the upstream chain.

Since Kenya does not have adequate power to run electrified rail in the whole country yet, the possibility of having train-tram with mixed operations on heavy rail tracks would give the country maximum benefit utilizing available resources. To demonstrate the importance of engineering and scientific studies, the system element might be shown by the development of an automated Hipot device that performs the voltage insulation test [45]. In this test, the machine is stressed far beyond what it would typically encounter during nominal use. The insulation of electrical devices deteriorates with age due to the contamination of winding, internal partial discharges, loosening of bars in the slots or overhangs, overvoltage, etc. These all lead to increased iron (I2R) losses. The proposed device helps to track the health of the motors’ insulation, thereby reducing the I2R losses and promoting overall rail system efficiency. Voltage dividers generate low-level signals at 0–10 V proportional to the value of the output voltage regulator (0–300 V). The signal from the voltage divider is fed to op-amp, and the other input signal is from a digital-analogue converter. The output from the op-amp is (V Vdac)Kop-amp, where vd − Kop-amp is the gain of op-amp equal to 100 (see Figure 10). Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 20

Since Kenya does not have adequate power to run electrified rail in the whole country yet, the possibility of having train-tram with mixed operations on heavy rail tracks would give the country maximum benefit utilizing available resources. To demonstrate the importance of engineering and scientific studies, the system element might be shown by the development of an automated Hipot device that performs the voltage insulation test [45]. In this test, the machine is stressed far beyond what it would typically encounter during nominal use. The insulation of electrical devices deteriorates with age due to the contamination of winding, internal partial discharges, loosening of bars in the slots or overhangs, overvoltage, etc. These all lead 2 Sustainabilityto increased2020 iron, 12 ,(I 3572R) losses. The proposed device helps to track the health of the motors’ insulation,12 of 21 thereby reducing the I2R losses and promoting overall rail system efficiency.

Figure 10. Circuit simulation investigating the eeffectsﬀects of a loadload change.change.

PulseVoltage wave dividers generators generate form low Vwave-level(t), signals and this at voltage, 0–10 V isproportional compared to to the the di ffvalueerence of (Vthevd outputVdac) − Kvoltageop-amp .regulator At the beginning (0–300 V). of The each signal period from T, switchthe voltage S1 is divider closed and is fed when to op V-waveamp,(t) and reaches the other the valueinput Vsignalvd Vd isac from, the a comparator digital-analogue is triggered, converter. and switchThe output S1 opens. from the op-amp is (Vvd −Vdac) Kop-amp, where − Kop-ampIn is the the beginning, gain of op when-amp equal the voltage to 100 at(see the Figure output 10) of. the regulator is not large, the signal of the voltagePulse divider wave isgenerators small, the form difference Vwave (t), Vvd and Vdacthis voltage is large,, is and compared the power to the key difference is openalmost (Vvd −V thedac) − entireK op-amp period.. At the As beginning the output of voltageeach period increases, T, switch the di S1fference is closed (Vvd andVdac) when decreases, Vwave (t) reaches which leadsthe value to a − decreaseVvd−Vdac, in the the comparator duration of is the triggered, open state and of theswitch key. S1 When opens. Vdac is greater than Vvd, the voltage output of op-ampIn the isbeginning,15 V, which when is lessthe voltage than the at minimum the output voltage of the ofregulator the pulse is wavenot large, generator. the signal Therefore, of the − thevoltage pulses divider at the is output small, of the the difference comparator Vvd is absent,−Vdac theis large, switch and S1 the is kept pow closeder key all is theopen time, almost and the outputentire period. voltage As ceases the output to increase. voltage increases, the difference (Vvd −Vdac) decreases, which leads to a decreaseThe eff inect the of loadduration variation of the is open simulated state of by the connecting key. When a low-resistanceVdac is greater resistor, than Vvd whose, the valuevoltage is lessoutput than of 100 op times-amp thatis −1 of5 V a, permanently which is less connected than the resistorminimum simulating voltage lossesof the in pulse the inverter wave generator at an idle. mode.Therefore, This the sharp pulses change at the in output resistance of the simulates comparator a sharp is absent, increase the in switch the current S1 is ofkept the closed inverter all that the occurstime, and during the output a breakdown. voltage Figure cease s11 to shows increase. the oscillogram signal after connecting and disconnecting theSustainability loadThe Rneffect 20=20100, 1of2, load Ohmx FOR variation PEER at the REVIEW output is simulat of theed automatic by connecting regulator. a low-resistance resistor, whose value12 of 20is less than 100 times that of a permanently connected resistor simulating losses in the inverter at an idle mode. This sharp change in resistance simulates a sharp increase in the current of the inverter that occurs during a breakdown. Figure 11 shows the oscillogram signal after connecting and disconnecting the load Rn = 100 Ohm at the output of the automatic regulator.

Figure 1. OscilloscopeFigure diagram 11. Oscilloscope showing diagramthe effect showing of a load the change eﬀect of a load change.

On the other hand, nowadays, good strategic plans try to take into account the effects of economic cycles on future development, on investments and demands. Figure 12. shows the changes in the GDP yearly rate of the United Kingdom (UK) available for the last 700 years [46]. In this figure, it might be difficult to understand the occurrence of the economic cycles, because they are composed from different cycles and they are combined with other effects as war cycles and epidemics.

Figure 12. Power spectral density of UK GDP growth.

After Schumpeter’s [46] first classification, nowadays, five business cycles are defined: (1) 3–7 years Kitchin inventory, (2) 7–11 years Juglar fixed investment, (3) 15–25 years Kuznets infrastructural investment, (4) 45– 60 years Kondratieff long-wave, and (5) 70+ grand super-cycles. After studying the GDP time series for different countries, several specific features are identified, influencing the investment and development processes. Finally, the total life cycle cost and or total life cycle impact on the environment have taken place in strategic development. For example, today, most researchers are investigating the impacts of products or services on climate change, or more directly, on greenhouse gas emission. Therefore, governments are introducing laws to support the development, market introduction, and operation of electric vehicles, electric transportation methods. A simplified and unique index evaluating the total impact has been introduced [13,47–49]. The index is defined as the total costs induced by all life cycle effects of the transportation system related to a unit of transport work (pass-km, or tonne-km).

푇퐿퐶퐶 푇푂퐿퐶퐶 푇퐼퐿퐶퐶 푇푃퐼 = = + = 푇푂푃퐼 + 푇퐼푃퐼 , (1) 푇퐿퐶푊 푇퐿퐶푊 푇퐿퐶푊 Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 20

Figure 1. Oscilloscope diagram showing the effect of a load change Sustainability 2020, 12, 3572 13 of 21

On the other hand, nowadays, good strategic plans try to take into account the effects of economicOn the cycles other on hand, future nowadays, development, good strategicon investments plans try and to takedemands. into account Figure the12. eshowsffects ofthe economic changes cyclesin the onGDP future yearly development, rate of the United on investments Kingdom and (UK) demands. available Figure for the 12 last. shows 700 years the changes [46]. In inthis the figure GDP, yearlyit might rate be ofdifficult the United to understand Kingdom the (UK) occurr availableence of for the the eco lastnomic 700 cycles, years [ 46because]. In this they figure, are composed it might befrom diffi differentcult to understand cycles and they the occurrenceare combined of thewith economic other effects cycles, as war because cycles they and are epidemics. composed from different cycles and they are combined with other e ffects as war cycles and epidemics.

Figure 12. Power spectral density of UK GDP growth. Figure 12. Power spectral density of UK GDP growth. After Schumpeter’s [46] first classification, nowadays, five business cycles are defined: (1) 3–7 years After Schumpeter’s [46] first classification, nowadays, five business cycles are defined: (1) 3–7 Kitchin inventory, (2) 7–11 years Juglar fixed investment, (3) 15–25 years Kuznets infrastructural years Kitchin inventory, (2) 7–11 years Juglar fixed investment, (3) 15–25 years Kuznets investment, (4) 45–60 years Kondratieff long-wave, and (5) 70+ grand super-cycles. infrastructural investment, (4) 45– 60 years Kondratieff long-wave, and (5) 70+ grand super-cycles. After studying the GDP time series for different countries, several specific features are identified, After studying the GDP time series for different countries, several specific features are identified, influencing the investment and development processes. influencing the investment and development processes. Finally, the total life cycle cost and or total life cycle impact on the environment have taken Finally, the total life cycle cost and or total life cycle impact on the environment have taken place place in strategic development. For example, today, most researchers are investigating the impacts in strategic development. For example, today, most researchers are investigating the impacts of of products or services on climate change, or more directly, on greenhouse gas emission. Therefore, products or services on climate change, or more directly, on greenhouse gas emission. Therefore, governments are introducing laws to support the development, market introduction, and operation of governments are introducing laws to support the development, market introduction, and operation electric vehicles, electric transportation methods. of electric vehicles, electric transportation methods. A simplified and unique index evaluating the total impact has been introduced [13,47–49]. The A simplified and unique index evaluating the total impact has been introduced [13,47–49]. The index is defined as the total costs induced by all life cycle effects of the transportation system related to index is defined as the total costs induced by all life cycle effects of the transportation system related a unit of transport work (pass-km, or tonne-km). to a unit of transport work (pass-km, or tonne-km). TLCC TOLCC TILCC TPI = 푇퐿퐶퐶= 푇푂퐿퐶퐶 + 푇퐼퐿퐶퐶 = TOPI + TIPI, (1) 푇푃퐼 =TLCW =TLCW + TLCW= 푇푂푃퐼 + 푇퐼푃퐼 , (1) 푇퐿퐶푊 푇퐿퐶푊 푇퐿퐶푊 where TPI is the total performance index, TOPI is the total operation performance index, TIPI total impact performance index, TLCC/TOLCC/TILCC are the total/total operational/total impact LCC (life cycle cost) and the TLCW is the total life cycle work [50,51]. The TOPI defines the operational cost of a given vehicle or given transportation mode, and is well known and applied by owners, operators, service providers. It is widely used in rail transport for the evaluation of mixed fleets to determine optimized transportation chains. Principally, the TIPI deals with the externalities. It is the index that can be used in impact assessment. The TIPI summarises all the impacts:

n Pn X = TILCCi TIPI = TIPI = i 1 , (2) i TLCW i=1 where i = 1, 2, ... n deﬁnes the diﬀerent groups of impacts. According to the transportation systems, i = safety and security, system peculiarities, environmental impacts, system support, use of resources. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3572 14 of 21

The TIPI for a group of impacts can be determined as the sum of the diﬀerent eﬀects:

Pm Pl Pr Pu j=1 k=1 q=1 Nj,k,qpj,k,qIj,k,q v=1 oj,k,q,vcj,k,q,v TIPIi = i, TLCWi (3) Pm Pl Pr ∀ TLCWi = j=1 k=1 q=1 Nj,k,qWj,k,q. where j = 1, 2, ... m depicts the subgroups of impacts, while k = 1, 2, ... l defines the transport means, q = 1, 2, ... , r represents the types or groups of the given transport system, v = 1, 2, ... , u identifies the different forms of consequences, N is the number of sub-sub-group elements contributors to the impact, like the number of vehicles defined by q, p is the parameter of the given types or group of system elements causes the investigated effects, I is the impact indicator of the given system element, o the outcomes/consequences of impact defined by I or caused by the events, situations associated with the I indicator, c is the conversion coefficient for calculating the (external) cost, and work done, W during the investigated period defined by p. This means that if p is the parameter of a function given in the form of an average annual unit, then W should also be related to one year. For instance, if N defines the number of vehicles and p is the annual average running of the vehicles, then the W equals p.

4. Results and Discussions The shortly outlined methodologies were applied to the investigation of the possible future development of railway transport in Kenya. There following major results were found and formulated. A series of tools were developed to support the policymakers of developing countries with a rail system stagnant for an extended period. The tool allows for the determination of more explicit effects of technological development on future strategic management. This methodology defines, develops and introduces the (i) general description (“Tetris”) of the strategic plan development; (ii) forecasting methodology for demand prediction; (iii) harmonization of the estimated economic cycles with strategic planning; (iv) total impact estimation and (v) harmonization of the legal framework and financing with strategic plans. Applying the forecasting methodology (see Figure7), after sensitivity analysis of indicators, the major drivers defining the future demand in railway travel in developing countries were identified. These are: (i) Societal and cultural indicators represented by the total population, education level, and GINI index; (ii) economic indicators represented by changes in GDP; (iii) technological indicators represented by the volume of passenger-km and tons of goods-km transported and electric power consumed, Kwh per capita. It was found that the sensitivity of indicators in developing countries are different from developed countries. For example, the use of the enrolment of secondary education to show productivity instead of the percentage of education government expenditure as applied for developed countries to estimate research and development. While the GINI index is used for developed countries to estimate traveling money budgets analysing the competition between air and rail, the developing countries adopt the electric power consumed per capita indicator to evaluate readiness in technological advancements in the sector. There are interesting features of the railway system operating in Kenya. The density of railways (km/1000 km2), business intensity, i.e., labour productivity as GDP per railway employment and length of the railways (km), are 20–50 times lower than the same indicators in developed countries. Kenya Railway has a single track and passes through the areas of high population and business activity, and its performance has declined due to a lack of investment by the government in the period 1977–2015. The market shares of rail transport reduced to approximately 2% of total freight, giving way to the dominance of road freight. Figure8 shows that the available historical input data results in a strength forecast situation. As can be seen, goods transported, and passenger carried dropped down nearly to zero. In such a situation, the use of dummies may change the figure. A dummy variable is an absence or presence (namely, it is 0 or 1) of some categorical effect that may change the trends or outcomes. Here, this particularly means the effects of developed and accepted railway modernization programs [47,48]. Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 20

rail, the developing countries adopt the electric power consumed per capita indicator to evaluate readiness in technological advancements in the sector. There are interesting features of the railway system operating in Kenya. The density of railways (km/1000 km2), business intensity, i.e., labour productivity as GDP per railway employment and length of the railways (km), are 20–50 times lower than the same indicators in developed countries. Kenya Railway has a single track and passes through the areas of high population and business activity, and its performance has declined due to a lack of investment by the government in the period 1977–2015. The market shares of rail transport reduced to approximately 2% of total freight, giving way to the dominance of road freight. Figure 8. shows that the available historical input data results in a strength forecast situation. As can be seen, goods transported, and passenger carried dropped down nearly to zero. In such a Sustainabilitysituation, the2020 use, 12, 3572of dummies may change the figure. A dummy variable is an absence or presence15 of 21 (namely, it is 0 or 1) of some categorical effect that may change the trends or outcomes. Here, this particularly means the effects of developed and accepted railway modernization programs [47,48]. The results of the demand forecast areare shownshown inin FiguresFigures 1313––1515..

Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 20

Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEERFigure REVIEW 13. Passenger demand demand-accessibility-accessibility forecast Kenya.Kenya. 15 of 20

The forecast contains some effect of ”art” (subjective factors of the forecasters). The developed and applied method has sensitivity to inadequate input data. There were huge series of simulations performed by the authors without possible identification of the problems caused by incorrect and/or incomplete data, hence the incorporation of relevant harmonization sections in the methodology. Transport inputs are generally available in limited forms; this methodology has employed an analogy investigated by comparing the available historical series of indicators and the evaluation of the “demand size.’’ The demand generation value (Dgv), encompasses the following: n Figure 14. Rail freight demand-accessibility forecast for Kenya. (4) Dgv = ∑ ciδi i=1 Supporting people’s free movement (mobility) is represented by population, socio-economic determinants• where , which푐푖 are theinclude coefficients the GDP defining per capita, the electricrole of different power consumption factors at the per regional capita- andlevel demand rail trip,- accessibility• 훿푖 is the elements Kronecker that symbol may defbe iningrelated the to activity freight of and the passenger given factor volumes (it is equal transported. to 1 once theNotably, given despitefactor Kenya characterises having a highthe regional population developments and freight and demand rail trips (tea, and coffee, zero titaniumif not), ore, copper etc), the• transport푖 → the factorsvolumes suchFigure data as by 14.business, rail Rail are freight lowagriculture, demand demand-accessibilityand this- accessibility industry,may explain trade, forecast the science G forompertz Kenya.Kenya and. curve.technology, tourism, rail terminals (this last symbol equals to 1 once the region has medium or large size rail terminal(s)).Supporting people’s free movement (mobility) is represented by population, socio-economic determinants, which include the GDP per capita, electric power consumption per capita and demand- accessibilityThe drivers elements (such that as GDPmay perbe relatedcapita, toeducation freight and etc), passenger are forecasted volumes using transported. the AR, that Notably, is, the despiteautoregressive Kenya havinmodelsg aand high rail population passenger andforecasted freight using demand the n(tea,on— coffee,linear ARXtitanium (autoregressive ore, copper withetc), theexogenous transport terms) volumes, while data the by S- railcurve are of low innovation and this diffusionmay explain process the G isompertz represented curve. by the Gompertz curve.

Figure 15. HarmonizedHarmonized demand estimation for freight (upper) and passengerpassenger (lower), Kenya.Kenya.

The forecastharmonised contains estimation some eofﬀ ectdemand of “art” for (subjective freight and factors passenger of the was forecasters). made with The the developed inclusion andof dummies applied methodwhich, in has this sensitivity study, were to inadequate identified inputas follows: data. (i) There Standard were hugerailway series gauge of simulations phase one performedimplementation by the from authors Mombasa without to possibleNairobi in identiﬁcation the year 2018 of; the(ii) problemsNairobi to caused Malaba by with incorrect connectivity and/or incompleteto Kisumu, Uganda data, hence and the Rwanda incorporation (phase 2) of o relevantpening to harmonization landlocked countries sections in in the the year methodology. 2021; (iii) the expansionFigure of Nairobi15. Harmonized Commuter demand Railway estimation Services for freight system (upper) that and involves passenger the(lower), upgrading Kenya. of the commuter core system (existing commuter rail line) and construction of a railway line from Jomo KenyattaThe harmonisedInternational estimation Airport (JKIA of demand) to the Syokimaufor freight Railwayand passenger Station was in the made year with 2024 the. inclusion of dummiesUsing Japan’s which ,indicators, in this study the, wereforecast identified concept as was follows: validated (i) Standard as historical railway data gauge compared phase with one forecastedimplementation data. from With Mombasa regards to to Nairobi a sustainable in the year transportation 2018; (ii) Nairob system,i to Malaba the with impact connectivity analysis methodologyto Kisumu, Uganda developed and Rwanda was adapted (phase to 2) evaluate opening the to landlockedTIPI environmental countries aspect in the ofyear GHG 2021 emission; (iii) the factorexpansion depending of Nairobi on energy Commuter consumption Railway following Services EN system 16258 thatstandards. involves During the upgradingthe adaptation of the of thecommuter methodology core system in the (existing study, commute difficultiesr rail were line) identified and construction in sourcing of a data railway that linewere from directly Jomo- measuredKenyatta International from the Kenya Airport rail (JKIAservice,) to and the thus,Syokimau standard/default Railway Station values in thewere year applied. 2024. This is not uncommonUsing Japan’swith transport indicators,-related the forecastdata as theyconcept are sometimeswas validated unavailable as historical or limited data compared depending with on theforecasted economy data. and Withsociety regards development, to a sustainablethe related technology transportation progress, system, and thethe accessibility impact analysis and affordability.methodology developed was adapted to evaluate the TIPI environmental aspect of GHG emission factorBy depending comparing on a energy study publishedconsumption by following Chester and EN Horvath 16258 standards. [52], our During developed the adaptation methodology of agreethe methodologyd with their studies in the as study, there difficulties was a considerable were identified difference in sourcingbetween rail data transport that were operated directly in- measured from the Kenya rail service, and thus, standard/default values were applied. This is not uncommon with transport-related data as they are sometimes unavailable or limited depending on the economy and society development, the related technology progress, and the accessibility and affordability. By comparing a study published by Chester and Horvath [52], our developed methodology agreed with their studies as there was a considerable difference between rail transport operated in Sustainability 2020, 12, 3572 16 of 21

Transport inputs are generally available in limited forms; this methodology has employed an analogy investigated by comparing the available historical series of indicators and the evaluation of the “demand size.” The demand generation value (Dgv), encompasses the following:

Xn Dgv = ciδi (4) i=1

where c are the coefficients defining the role of different factors at the regional-level rail trip, • i δ is the Kronecker symbol defining the activity of the given factor (it is equal to 1 once the given • i factor characterises the regional developments and rail trips and zero if not), i the factors such as business, agriculture, industry, trade, science and technology, tourism, rail • terminals (this last symbol equals to 1 once the region has medium or large size rail terminal(s)).

The drivers (such as GDP per capita, education etc.), are forecasted using the AR, that is, the autoregressive models and rail passenger forecasted using the non—linear ARX (autoregressive with exogenous terms), while the S-curve of innovation diffusion process is represented by the Gompertz curve. Supporting people’s free movement (mobility) is represented by population, socio-economic determinants, which include the GDP per capita, electric power consumption per capita and demand-accessibility elements that may be related to freight and passenger volumes transported. Notably, despite Kenya having a high population and freight demand (tea, coffee, titanium ore, copper etc), the transport volumes data by rail are low and this may explain the Gompertz curve. The harmonised estimation of demand for freight and passenger was made with the inclusion of dummies which, in this study, were identified as follows: (i) Standard railway gauge phase one implementation from Mombasa to Nairobi in the year 2018; (ii) Nairobi to Malaba with connectivity to Kisumu, Uganda and Rwanda (phase 2) opening to landlocked countries in the year 2021; (iii) the expansion of Nairobi Commuter Railway Services system that involves the upgrading of the commuter core system (existing commuter rail line) and construction of a railway line from Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) to the Syokimau Railway Station in the year 2024. Using Japan’s indicators, the forecast concept was validated as historical data compared with forecasted data. With regards to a sustainable transportation system, the impact analysis methodology developed was adapted to evaluate the TIPI environmental aspect of GHG emission factor depending on energy consumption following EN 16258 standards. During the adaptation of the methodology in the study, difficulties were identified in sourcing data that were directly-measured from the Kenya rail service, and thus, standard/default values were applied. This is not uncommon with transport-related data as they are sometimes unavailable or limited depending on the economy and society development, the related technology progress, and the accessibility and affordability. By comparing a study published by Chester and Horvath [52], our developed methodology agreed with their studies as there was a considerable difference between rail transport operated in different regions based on the source of energy consumed during a vehicle’s active operation (see Figures 14–16). As seen in Figure 17, the well-to-wheels (WTW) GHG emission factor, whereby the primary energy consumption and end energy consumption are accounted for, is relatively higher than expected to the tank-to-wheels (TTW) GHG emission factor, which only recorded all direct emissions from vehicle operation—end energy consumption. Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 16 of 20 Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 16 of 20 different regions based on the source of energy consumed during a vehicle’s active operation (see SustainabilitydifferentFigures 14 regions–202016),. 12 ,based 3572 on the source of energy consumed during a vehicle’s active operation17 ( ofsee 21 Figures 14–16).

Figure 16. Concept validation using Japan’s historical data. Figure 16. Concept validation u usingsing Japan Japan’s’s historical data.

1 1

0 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.008 0.009 0 Urban/diesel+7%0.001 0.002 biofuel(WTW)0.003 0.004well to wheels0.005 GHG0.006 emission0.007 factor(gw)0.008 CO2e/kg0.009 Urban/diesel+7% biofuel(WTW)biofuel(TTW) tank well to to wheel wheels GHG GHG emission emission factor(gt) factor(gw) CO2e/kg CO2e/kg Urban/diesel+7%urban/deiesel+5% biofuel(TTW) biofuel(WTW) tank well to to wheel wheels GHG GHG emission emission factor(gt) factor(gw) CO2e/kg CO2e/kg urban/deiesel+5% biofuel(WTW)biofuel(TTW) tank well to to wheel wheels GHG GHG emission emission factor(gt) factor(gw) CO2e/kg CO2e/kg

urban/deiesel+5% biofuel(TTW) tank to wheel GHG emission factor(gt) CO2e/kg Figure 17. The total impact performance index (TIPI) for the environmental aspect, GHG emission Figurefactor in 17. € CO2eThe total per passenger impact performance-km for diesel index with (TIPI)(TIPI a biofuel) for the proportion environmentalenvironment typeal of aspect,passenger GHG train emission. factor in € CO2e per passenger-kmpassenger-km forfor dieseldiesel withwith aa biofuelbiofuel proportionproportion typetype ofof passengerpassenger train.train. As seen in Figure 17, the well-to-wheels (WTW) GHG emission factor, whereby the primary energyTheAs consumptionseen urban-diesel in Figure and passenger17, endthe w energyell train,-to- wheels consumption well-to-wheels (WTW) areGHG (WTW) accounted emission GHG for factor emission, is , relativelywhereby factor the higheris relatively primary than higherenergyexpected as consumption to expected the tank than-to and-wheels the end tank-to-wheels (TTW) energy GHG consumption (TTW),emission and factor are the accounted indices, which areonly formuch record, is higher relativelyed all thandirect higher those emissions ofthan the urbanexpectedfrom vehicle/diesel to the withoperation tank biofuel-to-—wheelsend proportions energy (TTW) consumption GHG (Figure emission 18). . factor, which only recorded all direct emissions from vehicle operation—end energy consumption.

1 1 0 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.008 0.009 0 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.008 0.009 urban/diesel (WTW) well to wheels GHG emission factor(gw) CO2e/kg urban/dieselurban/diesel(TTW) (WTW) tank well to to wheel wheels GHG GHG emission emission factor(gt) factor(gw) CO2e/kg CO2e/kg urban/diesel(TTW) tank to wheel GHG emission factor(gt) CO2e/kg

Figure 18. TIPI for environment aspect, GHG emission factor in € CCO2eO2e per passenger passenger-km-km for a diesel passengerFigure 18. train.TIPI for environment aspect, GHG emission factor in € CO2e per passenger-km for a diesel passenger train. The well-to-wheels (WTW) GHG emission factor that consists of direct and indirect emissions is much lower since the tank-to-wheels (TTW) GHG emission factor (direct emissions) is zero and the primary source of is renewable (Figure 19). Kenya derives 87% of its total electricity from renewable Sustainability 20202020,, 1212,, 3572x FOR PEER REVIEW 1718 of of 2120

The urban-diesel passenger train, well-to-wheels (WTW) GHG emission factor is relatively sources;higher as hydro expected and tha geothermal.n the tank-to Consequently,-wheels (TTW), the and adoption the indices of electrically are much higher powered than rail those transport of the wouldurban/diesel lower wit theh indirect biofuel emissionproportions factors (Figure by 81.8%. 18).

1 urban/electric (renewable)(WTW) well to wheels GHG emission factor(gw) CO2e/kg

0 0.000002 0.000004 0.000006 0.000008 0.00001

Figure 19. TIPI for environment aspect, GHG emission factor in € CO2e per passenger passenger-km-km for electric (renewable sourcedsourced energy)energy) train.train. 5. Conclusions The well-to-wheels (WTW) GHG emission factor that consists of direct and indirect emissions is muchTransport lower since has the a determiningtank-to-wheels role (TTW) in the GHG economy emission and factor is in (direct focus for emissions) strategic is development, zero and the planningprimary source and actions, of is renewable especially for(Figure a developing 19). Kenya country. derives In 87% countries of its oftotal the electricity Sub-Saharan from Africa renewable region, especiallysources; hydro in Kenya, and geothermal. most railways Consequently, are in bad condition the adoption and disrepair. of electrically The railway powered system rail transport requires exceptionalwould lower support the indirect for its emission redevelopment. factors by However, 81.8%. future developments are based on economical, societal and technological changes and depend on the vision and actions of the policymakers, strategic plans5. Conclusions and actions and their harmonisation by legislation and financing support. It is a controllable stochasticTransport process. has a determining role in the economy and is in focus for strategic development, planningThe eandffective actions, functioning especially of the for Kenyan a developin rail systemg country. would In play countries an exceptional of the Sub role-Saharan in creating Africa the conditionsregion, especially for modernisation, in Kenya, most the railways transition are to anin bad innovative condition path and of disrepair. development The andrailway sustainable system growthrequires of exceptional the nation and support contribute for its to redevelopment. the creation of conditions However for, future ensuring developments Kenya’s leadership are based in the on regionaleconomical, economic societal system. and technologicalHowever, not only changes the prospects and depend for further on the socio-economic vision and actions development of the dependpolicymakers, on the strategic state and plans performance and actions of rail and transport, their harmonisation but also the ability by legislation of a country and to financing perform crucialsupport. functions It is a controllable such as ensuring stochastic the process. needs of citizens in transportation and creating conditions for equalisingThe effective the social-economic functioning of development the Kenyan ofrail the system regions. would Besides, play the an processexceptional of globalisation role in creating and changethe conditions from traditional for modernisation, region economics the transition relations to an proposeinnovative the path task of for development Kenya to rationally and sustainable use the potentialgrowth of of the its nation unique and economic contribute and to geographical the creation position. of conditions for ensuring Kenya’s leadership in the regionalThis study economic adapted system. the technology However, identification, not only the evaluation, prospects and for selection further methodology socio-economic to thedevelopment Kenya Railways depend and on the demonstrated state and performance applicability of atrail the transport micro and, but macro also the levels, ability specifically of a country by investigatingto perform crucial the development functions such of aas Hipot ensuring device the and needs the introductionof citizens in oftransportation hybrid tram-train and creating into the systems.conditions The for developed equalising automated the social-economic Hipot device development assists in trackingof the regions. the motors’ Besides, insulation the process health, of 2 therebyglobalisation reducing and change the I R from losses traditional and promoting region overalleconomics rail relations system eprofficiencypose the and task reliability. for Kenya It to is worthrationally noting use thatthe potential in developing of its unique countries, economic these and electro-mechanical geographical position components, such as motors, are importedThis study and adapted not manufactured the technology locally, identification, thus promoting evaluation,/easing and maintenanceselection methodology which provides to the considerableKenya Railways assistance. and demonstrated This paper investigated applicability the at etheffects micro of load and change macro to levels, demonstrate specifically how by to acquireinvestigating 3 kV the (high development voltage testing) of a Hipot and howdevice the and circuit the introduction responds to of breakdown. hybrid tram The-train evaluated into the train-tramsystems. The suitability developed concept automated supports Hipot the rail device sustainability assists in andtrack emissioning the reductionmotors’ insulation and, at the health, same time,thereby adapts reducing to the the constrained I2R losses and electrical promoting production overall of rail the system country. efficiency A morphological and reliability. dot matrix It is worth was appliednoting that to illustrate in developing the features countries, available, these which electro contributed-mechanical to the components train-tram hybrid, such being as motors the ”most, are suitableimported system and solution”not manufactured for developing locally, countries thus promoting/easing with respect to Kenya. maintenance which provides considerableBy analysing assistance the interrelationship. This paper investigated between the the characteristics effects of load of railwaychange transportto demonstrate and economic how to developmentacquire 3 kV (high and economicvoltage testing) cycles, and a gaphow betweenthe circuit the responds developing to breakdown. and developed The evaluated countries train was- identifiedtram suitability and characterised. concept supports This gapthe rail has sustainability major effects onand the emission economic reduction cycles and and, the at railwaythe same system time, developmentadapts to the in constrained developing electrical countries, production especially in of Kenya. the country. A morphological dot matrix was appliedA methodology to illustrate the for features total lifeavailable, cycle evaluationwhich contribute (includingd to the cost, train emission-tram hybrid and being safety) the using ”most a simplifiedsuitable system unique solution total performance” for developing index countr (TPI),ies estimating with respect the total to Kenya. impact which is given in the form of totalBy costsanalysing induced the byinterrelationship all life cycle eff betweenects of transportation the characteristics system of relatedrailway to transport unit of transport and economic work, development and economic cycles, a gap between the developing and developed countries was Sustainability 2020, 12, 3572 19 of 21

passenger-km (pkm), or tonne-km (tkm), was developed and applied. The method used available data from data banks (statistical bureaus), data-mining, like railway track construction, and adapted simulated data from given regions, such as, the number and cost associated with fatalities. The impact analysis methodology developed was adapted to evaluate the TIPI environmental aspect of the GHG emission factor depending on energy consumption following EN 16258 standards for different type of passenger trains. The forecasting methodology was developed and adapted to Kenya Railway systems to estimate the demand for future passengers’ travel and freight transportation. It deduced usability, and a possibility of bringing the performance and safety of transportation per the requirements of the population, economic level and the world standards based on the technological and technical development of railway transport. The railway transport development can be affected significantly by the dynamics of prices in the fuel industry, electric power industry, lagging dynamics of technological advancements as well as a decline in the planned volume of a country’s investments. Regular monitoring and analysis of indicators, such as changes in GDP, dynamics of growth rates and population structure, changes in the structure and volume of transportation, changes in the structure rolling stock, changes in other modes of transport, depreciation of fixed assets of railway transport, the intensity of innovation and their level of use, etc., help develop a response mechanism and mitigation. These series of tools can support the policy-makers of developing countries, making the effects of technological development on future strategic management more explicit and visible.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, A.W.W., D.R., and A.B.; methodology, A.W.W., D.R., and A.B.; software, A.W.W., and A.B.; validation, A.W.W., D.R., and A.B.; formal analysis, A.W.W., D.R., and A.B.; investigation, A.W.W.; resources, D.R.; supervision, D.R., and A.B.; project administration, A.B.; funding acquisition, D.R., All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. Funding: This work was supported by Hungarian national EFOP-3.6.1-16-2016-00014 project titled by “Investigation and development of the disruptive technologies for e-mobility and their integration into the engineering education” (IDEA-E) and by the FORSAT 2035 Forecast of demand in small aircraft transport project supported by the Clean Sky 2 Joint Undertaking and the analogical FORROT, FORJET projects. Conﬂicts of Interest: The authors declare no conﬂicts of interest.

References

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