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Offensive Against the Syrian City of Manbij May Be the Beginning of a Campaign to Liberate the Area Near the Syrian-Turkish Border from ISIS
June 23, 2016 Offensive against the Syrian City of Manbij May Be the Beginning of a Campaign to Liberate the Area near the Syrian-Turkish Border from ISIS Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters at the western entrance to the city of Manbij (Fars, June 18, 2016). Overview 1. On May 31, 2016, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-dominated military alliance supported by the United States, initiated a campaign to liberate the northern Syrian city of Manbij from ISIS. Manbij lies west of the Euphrates, about 35 kilometers (about 22 miles) south of the Syrian-Turkish border. In the three weeks since the offensive began, the SDF forces, which number several thousand, captured the rural regions around Manbij, encircled the city and invaded it. According to reports, on June 19, 2016, an SDF force entered Manbij and occupied one of the key squares at the western entrance to the city. 2. The declared objective of the ground offensive is to occupy Manbij. However, the objective of the entire campaign may be to liberate the cities of Manbij, Jarabulus, Al-Bab and Al-Rai, which lie to the west of the Euphrates and are ISIS strongholds near the Turkish border. For ISIS, the loss of the area is liable to be a severe blow to its logistic links between the outside world and the centers of its control in eastern Syria (Al-Raqqah), Iraq (Mosul). Moreover, the loss of the region will further 112-16 112-16 2 2 weaken ISIS's standing in northern Syria and strengthen the military-political position and image of the Kurdish forces leading the anti-ISIS ground offensive. -
Squaring the Circles in Syria's North East
Squaring the Circles in Syria’s North East Middle East Report N°204 | 31 July 2019 Headquarters International Crisis Group Avenue Louise 149 • 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 • Fax: +32 2 502 50 38 [email protected] Preventing War. Shaping Peace. Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. The Search for Middle Ground ......................................................................................... 3 A. The U.S.: Caught between Turkey and the YPG ........................................................ 3 1. Turkey: The alienated ally .................................................................................... 4 2. “Safe zone” or dead end? The buffer debate ........................................................ 8 B. Moscow’s Missed Opportunity? ................................................................................. 11 C. The YPG and Damascus: Playing for Time ................................................................ 13 III. A War of Attrition with ISIS Remnants ........................................................................... 16 A. The SDF’s Approach to ISIS Detainees ..................................................................... 16 B. Deteriorating Relations between the SDF and Local Tribes .................................... -
Heirs of the Prophet: Islamic Authority and International Politics in the 21 Century by James A. Mikulec, Jr. B.A., Mercyhurst C
Heirs of the Prophet: Islamic Authority and International Politics in the 21 st Century by James A. Mikulec, Jr. B.A., Mercyhurst College, May 2005 M.A., George Washington University, August 2007 A Dissertation submitted to The Faculty of The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy January 31, 2014 Dissertation directed by Marc Lynch Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and of Media and Public Affairs The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University certifies that James A. Mikulec, Jr. has passed the Final Examination for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy as of December 13, 2013. This is the final and approved form of the dissertation. Heirs of the Prophet: Islamic Authority and International Politics in the 21 st Century James A. Mikulec, Jr. Dissertation Research Committee: Marc Lynch, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and of Media and Public Affairs, Dissertation Director Nathan Brown, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Committee Member Martha Finnemore, University Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Committee Member ii © Copyright 2014 by James A. Mikulec, Jr. All rights reserved iii Dedication I dedicate this dissertation to Jessica and to my family, especially my parents, James and Donna Mikulec, and my grandparents, Peter and Joyce Izzi and Joseph and Laura Mikulec, who always encouraged me to pursue the things that I love. Without their constant support, I would not be here today. iv Acknowledgements This dissertation was written during (and, in some cases, was an eyewitness to) a particularly important, but volatile period in the political and social history of the Middle East and the Muslim world. -
The Not-So-Great Game in Syria, and How to End It by Andrew J
MENU Policy Analysis / Articles & Op-Eds The Not-So-Great Game in Syria, and How to End It by Andrew J. Tabler Nov 4, 2015 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Andrew J. Tabler Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross fellow in the Geduld Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant. Articles & Testimony Russia has greatly complicated an already-fraught situation by picking a fight with Syria's majority Sunni rebels and tripping into other regional players' spheres of influence. n the last few weeks, Russia has returned to the Middle East through a direct military intervention in Syria. In I doing so, it has entered the Great Game for the heart of that country and the region. Early speculation that Russia intervened unilaterally to prop up the Bashar al-Assad regime has since been undermined by evidence that Russian air strikes are coordinated with an Iranian-supported regime offensive near Aleppo. In fact, it is likely that a June 2015 visit to Moscow by Qassem Suleimani, leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, was part of the planning for the eventual Iranian-Russian intervention. Assad apparently invited the Russian strikes, which has given them some degree of legitimacy, as has Moscow's concurrent promotion of negotiations, which started in Vienna last week. But by intervening on behalf of what Russian officials call a "mosaic" of Iranian-supported forces, Moscow has picked a fight with Syria's majority Sunni rebels and their brethren in the region. It has also tripped into other regional players' spheres of influence, including those of Turkey, the Gulf countries, the Kurds, Jordan, and Israel. -
The Syrian Kurdish Movement's Resilience Strategy
Surviving the Aftermath of Islamic State: The Syrian Kurdish Movement’s Resilience Strategy Patrick Haenni and Arthur Quesnay Wartime and Post-Conflict in Syria (WPCS) Research Project Report 17 February 2020 2020/03 © European University Institute 2020 Content and individual chapters © Patrick Haenni, Arthur Quesnay, 2020 This work has been published by the European University Institute, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies. This text may be downloaded only for personal research purposes. Additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copies or electronically, requires the consent of the authors. If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the year and the publisher. Requests should be addressed to [email protected]. Views expressed in this publication reflect the opinion of individual authors and not those of the European University Institute. Middle East Directions Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Research Project Report RSCAS/Middle East Directions 2020/03 17 February 2020 European University Institute Badia Fiesolana I – 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) www.eui.eu/RSCAS/Publications/ cadmus.eui.eu Surviving the Aftermath of Islamic State: The Syrian Kurdish Movement’s Resilience Strategy Patrick Haenni and Arthur Quesnay* * Patrick Haenni is a Doctor of Political Science and Visiting Fellow at the European University Institute (EUI). He is a senior adviser at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD). Since 2013, his work has focused on the political dynamics in Syrian rebel-held areas. He is the author of two books: Market Islam (Paris, Seuil, 2005) and The Order of the Caïds (Paris, Karthala, 2005). -
WEEKLY CONFLICT SUMMARY | 31 May - 6 June 2021
WEEKLY CONFLICT SUMMARY | 31 May - 6 June 2021 SYRIA SUMMARY • The predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) cracks down on anti-conscription protests in Manbij, Aleppo Governorate. • The Government of Syria (GoS) offers to defer military service for people wanted in southern Syria. • ISIS assassinates a prominent religious leader in Deir-ez-Zor city. Figure 1: Dominant actors’ area of control and influence in Syria as of 6 June 2021. NSOAG stands for Non-state Organized Armed Groups. Also, please see footnote 1. Page 1 of 5 WEEKLY CONFLICT SUMMARY | 31 May - 6 June 2021 NORTHWEST SYRIA1 Figure 2: Anti-conscription protests and related events in Manbij, Aleppo Governorate between 31 May – 6 June. Data from The Carter Center and ACLED. Conscription in Northwest Syria In 2019, the Kurdish Autonomous Administration (KAA) issued a controversial conscription law for territories under its control.2 in February, the Syrian Network For Human Rights claimed that the conscription of teachers deprived half a million students of a proper education. 3 People in the region argue that the forcible recruitment and arrests by SDF have disrupted economic life.4 In late May, the SDF escalated its recruitment effort.5 31 May 1 Figure 1 depicts areas of the dominant actors’ control and influence. While “control” is a relative term in a complex, dynamic conflict, territorial control is defined as an entity having power over use of force as well as civil/administrative functions in an area. Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah maintain a presence in Syrian government-controlled territory. Non-state organized armed groups (NSOAG), including the Kurdish-dominated SDF and Turkish-backed opposition groups operate in areas not under GoS control. -
How US Concessions Threaten the Syria
MENU Policy Analysis / Articles & Op-Eds How U.S. Concessions Threaten the Syria Peace Talks Before They Start by Michael Singh Jan 28, 2016 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Michael Singh Michael Singh is the Lane-Swig Senior Fellow and managing director at The Washington Institute. Articles & Testimony Diplomacy is shaped by facts on the ground, not the reverse, so Washington must be prepared to alter those facts by increasing its support for the opposition or expanding its own military involvement. S. officials are scrambling to convene another round of talks aimed at ending the war in Syria that has U. killed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions, and reinvigorated a global jihadist movement. Without firmer U.S. support of the Syrian opposition, and measures to dent the confidence of the Syrian regime and its supporters, these talks are doomed, like previous rounds, to end in failure. To casual observers, the horrors of the Syrian conflict may seem relatively unchanging. In fact, much has changed in Syria in the four months since the Russian military began intervening on behalf of Bashar al-Assad. Rebel advances had left the Syrian president in danger of losing vital portions of his regime's heartland. Relentless Russian aerial bombardment, however, has the rebels slowly retreating, allowing the regime to regain lost territory and confidence. Russian airstrikes have been complemented by a ground campaign led by the Syrian army and its associated paramilitaries, as well as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies, notably Hezbollah and Shiite militiamen from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The Russian bombing campaign -- which replaced a relatively sporadic air campaign by Syria's feeble air force -- and the encirclement of towns by Assad forces have worsened the humanitarian situation. -
Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 12/18/2018 9:48:31 AM OMB No
Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 12/18/2018 9:48:31 AM OMB No. 1124-0002; Expires May 31, 2020 U.S. Department of Justice Supplemental Statement Washington, dc 20530 Pursuant to the Foreign Agents Registration Act of 1938, as amended For Six Month Period Ending June 30, 2018 (Insert date) I - REGISTRANT 1. (a) Name of Registrant (b) Registration No. Kurdistan Regional Government - Liaison Office - USA 5783 (c) Business Address(es) of Registrant 1532 16th Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036-1402 2. Has there been a change in the information previously furnished in connection with the following? (a) If an individual: (1) Residence address(es) Yes □ No □ (2) Citizenship Yes □ No □ (3) Occupation Yes □ No □ (b) If an organization: (1) Name' Yes □ No 0 (2) Ownership or control Yes □ No E (3) Branch offices Yes □ No 0 (c) Explain fully all changes, if any, indicated in Items (a) and (b) above. IF THE REGISTRANT IS AN INDIVIDUAL, OMIT RESPONSE TO ITEMS 3, 4, AND 5(a). 3. if you have previously filed Exhibit C1, state whether any changes therein have occurred during this 6 month reporting period. Yes □ No H If yes, have you filed an amendment to the Exhibit C? Yes □ No E If no, please attach the required amendment. TThe Exhibit C, for which no'printed form is provided, consists of a true copy of the charter, articles of incorporation, association, and by laws of a registrant that is an organization. (A waiver of the requirement to File an Exhibit C may be obtained for good cause upon written application to the Assistant Attorney General, National Security Division, U.S, Department of Justice, Washington, DC 20530.) FORM NSD-2 Revised 05/17 Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 12/18/2018 9:48:31 AM Received by.NSD/FARA Registration Unit 12/18/2018 9:48:31 AM (PAGE 2) 4. -
Can the EU Help Syria? 19
Can the EU Help Syria? 19. September 2018 by Paweł Pieniążek Seven years into the Syrian conflict, all Syrian citizens dream about is stability and the return of normal life. Some of them want to leave the camps and come back to their homes, others need water or electricity, and all of them need jobs. While their problems might seem easy to solve at first glance, there are no simple solutions. The war in Syria continues, although its form and complexity are constantly changing. There are no short and medium-term perspectives to end the conflict. Because the conflict has been taken over by outside players, it will be difficult to find a comprehensive solution for the whole country. Foreign powers have their own interests on the ground and they are not eager to cooperate with each other. This does not mean, however, that there are no viable solutions. Western countries support local forces which are controlling almost one third of Syria. The European Union could propose a comprehensive strategy to counter the aggressive and chaotic US policy and guarantee safety and stability, which in the future could benefit the whole country. Today, only complex and ambitious projects could prevent further bloodshed and humanitarian crises, which in consequence would decrease migration flows and terrorist activities in Europe. I. Intervention of global powers In 2014, the war in Syria transformed into a global conflict, in which local forces began to receive support from outside players. The rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL or ISIS; since 2014 – the Islamic State or IS), which seized control over a territory in Syria and Iraq comparable in size to the United Kingdom, transformed the conflict into a global one. -
Post-ISIS States by Dr
Background Report VII: September 5, 2017 - April 30, 2018 Post-ISIS States By Dr. Gina Lennox Kurdish Lobby Australia Email: [email protected] Website: www.kurdishlobbyaustralia.com ©2018 Kurdish Lobby Australia You are welcome to share this report but please do not make changes without permission from Kurdish Lobby Australia. 1 Table of Contents Table of Figures ............................................................................................................................ 3 Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5 Why what is happening in the Middle East is relevant to Australia .......................... 9 What the Australian Government Can Do ........................................................................... 9 Overview ............................................................................................................................. 10 ISIS................................................................................................................................................... 10 Cost of War ................................................................................................................................... 11 Reconciliation and Reconstruction ..................................................................................... 14 -
Partner Operations in Syria Lessons Learned and the Way Forward
Atlantic Council RAFIK HARIRI CENTER FOR THE MIDDLE EAST Partner Operations in Syria Lessons Learned and the Way Forward Aaron Stein A Report of the Atlantic Council’s Sudan Task Force by Ambassador Mary Carlin Yates with Kelsey Lilley Partner Operations in Syria Lessons Learned and the Way Forward Aaron Stein ISBN: 978-1-61977-405-6. Cover photo: Reuters/Goran Tomasevic. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters stand in line during a funeral of SDF fighters killed by Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham militants in Raqqa, at Tal Abiad, Syria June 23, 2017. This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. July 2017 Partner Operations in Syria CONTENTS Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................2 Syria: Special Operations Forces and the Task at Hand ..............................................................4 How We Got Here: Tensions with Turkey about Strategy ..........................................................6 Train and Equip: Seeking to Close the Pocket with Arab Forces ............................................9 -
Isis's Second Comeback
JUNE 2019 ISIS’S SECOND COMEBACK ASSESSING THE NEXT ISIS INSURGENCY By Jennifer Cafarella with Brandon Wallace and Jason Zhou Jennifer Cafarella with Brandon Wallace and Jason Zhou, Institute for the Study of War ISIS’S SECOND COMEBACK ASSESSING THE NEXT ISIS INSURGENCY Cover: TOPSHOT - Civilians fleeing the Islamic State's group embattled holdout of Baghouz walk in a field on February 13, 2019 during an operation by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to expel the Islamic State group from the area, in the eastern Syrian province of Deir Ezzor. - Syrian fight- ers backed by artillery fire from a US-led coalition battled a fierce jihadist counteroffensive as they pushed to retake a last morsel of territory from the Islamic State group in an assault lasting days. More than four years after the extremists declared a "caliphate" across large parts of Syria and neighbouring Iraq, several offensives have whittled that down to a tiny scrap of land in eastern Syria. (Photo by Delil souleiman / AFP) (Photo credit should read DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP/Getty Images) All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing or from the publisher. ©2019 by the Institute for the Study of War. Published in 2019 in the United States of America by the Institute for the Study of War. 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 | Washington, DC 20036 understandingwar.org ABOUT THE AUTHORS Jennifer Cafarella is the Research Director at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).