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Planit and Property Economics 2011 – Kāpiti Employment Zone Assessment

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Planit and Property Economics 2011 – Kāpiti Employment Zone Assessment OCTOBER 2011 KAPITI EMPLOYMENT AREAS STUDY KAPITI COAST DISTRICT COUNCIL Code Date Information / Comments Project Leader 50760.7 October 2011 Report Tim Heath / Phil Osborne / Matt Bonis DISCLAIMER Property Economics and Planit & Associates have taken every care to ensure the correctness of all the information contained in this report. All information has been obtained by what are considered to be reliable sources, and Property Economics and Planit & Associates has no reason to doubt its accuracy. It is however the responsibility of all parties acting on information contained in this report to make their own enquiries to verify correctness. This document has been prepared for the use of Kapiti Coast District Council only. Copyright © 2011 by Property Economics Limited and Planit & Associates Limited. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 7 1.1. OBJECTIVES .............................................................................................. 8 1.2. INFORMATION SOURCES............................................................................. 9 1.3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................. 9 2. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING .................................................................................13 3. POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS.......................................................14 4. CURRENT KAPITI BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT ..........................................................15 4.1. KAPITI COAST BUSINESS NODES ................................................................15 4.2. KAPITI COAST RETAIL MARKET ...................................................................16 4.3. KAPITI RETAIL SUPPLY...............................................................................21 4.4. FUTURE CENTRE ROLES .............................................................................28 4.5. COMMERCIAL CENTRE HIERARCHY AND ROLE ...............................................32 5. CURRENT EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION................................................................39 5.1. CURRENT EMPLOYMENT LAND MARKET.........................................................42 5.2. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND NODES .............................................................43 6. ACTIVITY SHEET ...............................................................................................47 7. BUSINESS LOCATIONAL CRITERIA .......................................................................51 8. KAPITI BUSINESSES INTERVIEWS .......................................................................53 9. POLICY STRUCTURE...........................................................................................59 9.1. LOCAL POLICY ENDEAVOURS ......................................................................59 9.2. LOCAL CONTEXT CONCLUSION....................................................................62 9.3. REGIONAL POLICY.....................................................................................63 9.4. CONCLUSION RELATING TO POLICY DOCUMENTS ..........................................65 10. THE IMPLICATIONS OF BUSINESS DISTRIBUTION..................................................68 10.1. BUSINESS DISTRIBUTION AS A RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ISSUE ....................68 10.2. EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH BUSINESS DISTRIBUTION..................................68 10.3. URBAN FORM AND THE NEED FOR COUNCILS TO PROVIDE DIRECTION.............70 10.4. CERTAINTY IN COUNCIL INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE............................70 10.5. CERTAINTY IN DEVELOPER INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE........................71 10.6. URBAN DESIGN CONTROLS AND FOSTERING REDEVELOPMENT .......................72 10.7. ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES........................................................................72 11. CASE LAW SUMMARY .........................................................................................84 11.1. BUSINESS DISTRIBUTION AND SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS...................................84 11.2. CASE LAW................................................................................................87 12. DISTRICT PLAN ANALYSIS ..................................................................................91 13. BUSINESS LAND GROWTH SCENARIOS ................................................................94 13.1. EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY BUSINESS SECTOR (EX. RETAIL) ....................94 14. BUSINESS LAND PROJECTIONS .........................................................................104 14.1. INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR (HA) .............................................104 14.2. COMMERCIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR (HA) ............................................106 14.3. PROJECTED GROWTH TO 2051 ..................................................................109 14.4. POTENTIAL NODAL DISTRIBUTION OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY ..........................111 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 14.5. INDUSTRIAL DEMAND CONCLUSIONS ........................................................113 14.6. COMMERCIAL DEMAND CONCLUSIONS.......................................................113 15. STRATEGIC POLICY DIRECTION.........................................................................114 15.1. THE EMERGING BUSINESS PATTERN ..........................................................114 15.2. MANAGING THESE PATTERNS – THE POLICY APPROACH ...............................115 16. MECHANISMS .................................................................................................123 16.1. COMMERCIAL .........................................................................................123 16.2. INDUSTRIAL ...........................................................................................124 17. DEFINITIONS..................................................................................................126 18. CONCLUSIONS................................................................................................129 APPENDIX : 1 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES...........................................................131 APPENDIX : 2 RETAIL EXPENDITURE MODEL .....................................................133 APPENDIX : 3 RETAIL CLASSIFICATIONS..........................................................138 APPENDIX : 4 RETAIL CENTRES BREAKDOWN ...................................................139 APPENDIX : 5 BUSINESS CLASSIFICATIONS .....................................................140 APPENDIX : 6 EMPLOYMENT RETENTION ..........................................................141 APPENDIX : 7 COMMERCIAL CENTRE AMENITY SURVEY ......................................143 APPENDIX : 8 DISTRICT PLAN REVIEW.............................................................148 GLOSSARY............................................................................................................154 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE 1: KAPITI COAST DISTRICT POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS ............14 TABLE 3: KAPITI COAST RETAIL EXPENDITURE AND FLOORSPACE FORECASTS ................17 TABLE 4: RETAIL CENTRE CATCHMENT FORECASTS......................................................20 TABLE 5: KAPITI COAST RETAIL SUPPLY JUNE 2011 .....................................................22 TABLE 6: KAPITI COAST STORE SIZE BREAKDOWN ......................................................24 TABLE 7: KAPITI COAST RETAIL SUPPLY BY CENTRE GFA (SQM).....................................25 TABLE 8: KAPITI COAST RETAIL GFA DEMAND VS. SUPPLY ............................................27 TABLE 9: KAPITI COAST EMPLOYEE COMPOSITION AND TEMPORAL TRENDS 2000-2010....41 TABLE 10: ACTIVITY SHEET ......................................................................................47 TABLE 11: 2010 NODAL EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY MESHBLOCK............................49 TABLE 12: EMPLOYMENT GROWTH SCENARIO SUMMARIES (2010 - 2031) (EX. RETAIL) ....95 TABLE 13: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY SECTOR TO 2031 ...............................97 TABLE 14: INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS TO 2031 .......................................98 TABLE 15: COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS TO 2031 ......................................98 TABLE 16: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY SECTOR TO 2031 ...............................99 TABLE 17: INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS TO 2031 .......................................99 TABLE 18: COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS TO 2031 ....................................100 TABLE 19: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY SECTOR TO 2031 .............................100 TABLE 20: INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS TO 2031 .....................................101 TABLE 21: COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS TO 2031 ....................................101 TABLE 22: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY SECTOR TO 2031 .............................102 TABLE 23: INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS TO 2031 .....................................102 TABLE 24: COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS TO 2031 ....................................102 TABLE 25: INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND PROJECTIONS (SCENARIO 1)............................105 TABLE 26: INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND PROJECTIONS (SCENARIO 2)............................105 TABLE 27: INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND PROJECTIONS (SCENARIO 3)............................105 TABLE 28: INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND PROJECTIONS (SCENARIO 4)............................106 TABLE 29: COMMERCIAL LAND DEMAND PROJECTIONS (SCENARIO 1) ..........................107 TABLE 30: COMMERCIAL LAND DEMAND PROJECTIONS (SCENARIO
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