The Problem of Induction 1. Synopsis
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EPISTEMOLOGY and PHILOSOPHY of MIND HISTORICAL Historical Dictionaries of Religions, Philosophies, and Movements, No
PHILOSOPHY • EPISTEMOLOGY AND PHILOSOPHY OF MIND HISTORICAL Historical Dictionaries of Religions, Philosophies, and Movements, No. 70 DICTIONARY OF BAERGEN Epistemology Epistemology is the branch of philosophy that investigates our beliefs, evidence, and claims of knowledge. It is one of the core areas of philosophy and is relevant to an DICTIONARY astonishingly broad range of issues and situations. Epistemological issues arise when HISTORICAL we recognize that there is a fact of the matter but we do not know what it is; when we wonder about the future, the past, or distant places; and when we seek answers in the sciences and even in our entertainment (for example, murder mysteries and comedies of misunderstanding). OF Epistemology Historical Dictionary of Epistemology provides an overview of this field of study and its theories, concepts, and personalities. It begins with a chronology of important events (from 385 BC to AD 2005) and is followed by an introduction, which gives a historical overview. The book contains more than 500 entries covering notable concepts, theo- ries, arguments, publications, issues, and philosophers and concludes with an exten- sive bibliography of historical and contemporary epistemological works. Students and those who want to acquaint themselves with epistemology will be greatly aided by this book. RALPH BAERGEN is a professor of philosophy at Idaho State University. For orders and information please contact the publisher SCARECROW PRESS, INC. A wholly owned subsidiary of ISBN-13: 978-0-8108-5518-2 The Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc. ISBN-10: 0-8108-5518-6 4501 Forbes Boulevard, Suite 200 Lanham, Maryland 20706 1-800-462-6420 • fax 717-794-3803 www.scarecrowpress.com RALPH BAERGEN HDEpistempologyLITH.indd 1 6/12/06 1:07:32 PM 06-236_01_Front.qxd 6/12/06 12:54 PM Page i HISTORICAL DICTIONARIES OF RELIGIONS, PHILOSOPHIES, AND MOVEMENTS Jon Woronoff, Series Editor 1. -
The Epistemology of Evidence in Cognitive Neuroscience1
To appear in In R. Skipper Jr., C. Allen, R. A. Ankeny, C. F. Craver, L. Darden, G. Mikkelson, and R. Richardson (eds.), Philosophy and the Life Sciences: A Reader. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. The Epistemology of Evidence in Cognitive Neuroscience1 William Bechtel Department of Philosophy and Science Studies University of California, San Diego 1. The Epistemology of Evidence It is no secret that scientists argue. They argue about theories. But even more, they argue about the evidence for theories. Is the evidence itself trustworthy? This is a bit surprising from the perspective of traditional empiricist accounts of scientific methodology according to which the evidence for scientific theories stems from observation, especially observation with the naked eye. These accounts portray the testing of scientific theories as a matter of comparing the predictions of the theory with the data generated by these observations, which are taken to provide an objective link to reality. One lesson philosophers of science have learned in the last 40 years is that even observation with the naked eye is not as epistemically straightforward as was once assumed. What one is able to see depends upon one’s training: a novice looking through a microscope may fail to recognize the neuron and its processes (Hanson, 1958; Kuhn, 1962/1970).2 But a second lesson is only beginning to be appreciated: evidence in science is often not procured through simple observations with the naked eye, but observations mediated by complex instruments and sophisticated research techniques. What is most important, epistemically, about these techniques is that they often radically alter the phenomena under investigation. -
Would ''Direct Realism'' Resolve the Classical Problem of Induction?
NOU^S 38:2 (2004) 197–232 Would ‘‘Direct Realism’’ Resolve the Classical Problem of Induction? MARC LANGE University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill I Recently, there has been a modest resurgence of interest in the ‘‘Humean’’ problem of induction. For several decades following the recognized failure of Strawsonian ‘‘ordinary-language’’ dissolutions and of Wesley Salmon’s elaboration of Reichenbach’s pragmatic vindication of induction, work on the problem of induction languished. Attention turned instead toward con- firmation theory, as philosophers sensibly tried to understand precisely what it is that a justification of induction should aim to justify. Now, however, in light of Bayesian confirmation theory and other developments in epistemology, several philosophers have begun to reconsider the classical problem of induction. In section 2, I shall review a few of these developments. Though some of them will turn out to be unilluminating, others will profitably suggest that we not meet inductive scepticism by trying to justify some alleged general principle of ampliative reasoning. Accordingly, in section 3, I shall examine how the problem of induction arises in the context of one particular ‘‘inductive leap’’: the confirmation, most famously by Henrietta Leavitt and Harlow Shapley about a century ago, that a period-luminosity relation governs all Cepheid variable stars. This is a good example for the inductive sceptic’s purposes, since it is difficult to see how the sparse background knowledge available at the time could have entitled stellar astronomers to regard their observations as justifying this grand inductive generalization. I shall argue that the observation reports that confirmed the Cepheid period- luminosity law were themselves ‘‘thick’’ with expectations regarding as yet unknown laws of nature. -
The Principle of Inferential Justification, Scepticism, and Causal Beliefs Corbf, Josep E Paginas: 377
_L PHILOSOPHICAL ISSUES, 10 31 Skepticism, 2000 ! j The Principle of Inferential l ·1 Justification, Scepticism, I ' and Causal Beliefs Josep E. Corbi There is an argumentative route that begins with a platitude like: The Principle of Inferential J ustification (PIJ): "To be justi fied in believing one proposition P on the basis of another prop osition E, one must be (1) justified in believing E, (2) justified in believing that E makes probable P" .1 and ends up by challenging our capacity to justifiedly believing propositions concerning physical objects and past events. This is, at least, what Richard Fumerton claims, but, like Christopher Hookway,2 I doubt that there is such a route. The plausibility of PIJ in ordinary contexts relies, according to Hookway, on a number of assumptions like, for instance, the need to distinguish between salient information and background view of things. The problem is that Fumerton's sceptical route requires the application of PIJ not only to particular beliefs but to broad j_ 378 J osEP E. CoRBf epistemic classes of beliefs and, as Hookway tries to emphasize, this strategy is ultimately inconsistent with the need to maintain the aforementioned distinction and, in general, with the assump tions that rendered PIJ plausible in the first place. This worry is not, on the other hand, unconnected with the conviction that, contrary to what Fumerton claims, the notion of justification is inextricably associated with our needs to make normative judge ments. As Hookway puts it, " ... None who was not sensitive to our needs to make normative judgments could understand or share our concepts of rational belief or cruelty; they would not be able to)s·ee how the terms should be applied to wholly novel kinds of cas~s for they would lack the sense of what is !evaluatively simi lar' which is required for doing this." 3 In the coming pages, I seek to show how Hookway's challenge may find additional motivation in a reflection on the content of a certain kind of belief, namely: beliefs about particular causal pro cesses. -
There Is No Pure Empirical Reasoning
There Is No Pure Empirical Reasoning 1. Empiricism and the Question of Empirical Reasons Empiricism may be defined as the view there is no a priori justification for any synthetic claim. Critics object that empiricism cannot account for all the kinds of knowledge we seem to possess, such as moral knowledge, metaphysical knowledge, mathematical knowledge, and modal knowledge.1 In some cases, empiricists try to account for these types of knowledge; in other cases, they shrug off the objections, happily concluding, for example, that there is no moral knowledge, or that there is no metaphysical knowledge.2 But empiricism cannot shrug off just any type of knowledge; to be minimally plausible, empiricism must, for example, at least be able to account for paradigm instances of empirical knowledge, including especially scientific knowledge. Empirical knowledge can be divided into three categories: (a) knowledge by direct observation; (b) knowledge that is deductively inferred from observations; and (c) knowledge that is non-deductively inferred from observations, including knowledge arrived at by induction and inference to the best explanation. Category (c) includes all scientific knowledge. This category is of particular import to empiricists, many of whom take scientific knowledge as a sort of paradigm for knowledge in general; indeed, this forms a central source of motivation for empiricism.3 Thus, if there is any kind of knowledge that empiricists need to be able to account for, it is knowledge of type (c). I use the term “empirical reasoning” to refer to the reasoning involved in acquiring this type of knowledge – that is, to any instance of reasoning in which (i) the premises are justified directly by observation, (ii) the reasoning is non- deductive, and (iii) the reasoning provides adequate justification for the conclusion. -
Notes on Hume's Problem of Induction 1748 - Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding
1740 - Treatise of Human Nature Notes on Hume's Problem of Induction 1748 - Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding Recall: Subject of confirmation = How scientific claims are justified. This assumes that they are capable of justification in the first place. Hume asks: Is there a rational basis for inductive inferences? Hume response: No! Consequence: To the extent that scientific claims are based on inductive inferences, they cannot be justified. Example: All observed ravens are black. Hume asks, Can we ever be justified in believing the conclusion? All ravens are black. Two types of objects of knowledge, according to Hume (I) Relations of ideas = Products of deductive (truth-preserving) Ex: 2 + 2 = 4 inferences; negation entails a contradiction. (II) Matters of fact = Products of inductive inferences; negation does Ex: All ravens are black. not entail a contradiction. Outline of Hume's Argument (1) Matters of fact can only be known through experience ("a posteriori"). (2) Therefore matters of fact can only be justified by recourse to experience. (3) But any attempt to do so is circular. ∴ There is no justification for inductive inferences. ASIDE 1. Hume is not just saying that we can never be certain about inductive inferences (i.e., we can never be 100% certain that all ravens are black). This would be uncontentious: Most people would agree that there's always room for error in making an inductive inference. However, most people would at the same time claim that we are justified in making (some) inductive inferences, even though they aren't 100% guaranteed to work (i.e., we think there are standards by which we can judge good inductive inferences from bad ones). -
Analysis - Identify Assumptions, Reasons and Claims, and Examine How They Interact in the Formation of Arguments
Analysis - identify assumptions, reasons and claims, and examine how they interact in the formation of arguments. Individuals use analytics to gather information from charts, graphs, diagrams, spoken language and documents. People with strong analytical skills attend to patterns and to details. They identify the elements of a situation and determine how those parts interact. Strong interpretations skills can support high quality analysis by providing insights into the significance of what a person is saying or what something means. Inference - draw conclusions from reasons and evidence. Inference is used when someone offers thoughtful suggestions and hypothesis. Inference skills indicate the necessary or the very probable consequences of a given set of facts and conditions. Conclusions, hypotheses, recommendations or decisions that are based on faulty analysis, misinformation, bad data or biased evaluations can turn out to be mistaken, even if they have reached using excellent inference skills. Evaluative - assess the credibility of sources of information and the claims they make, and determine the strength and weakness or arguments. Applying evaluation skills can judge the quality of analysis, interpretations, explanations, inferences, options, opinions, beliefs, ideas, proposals, and decisions. Strong explanation skills can support high quality evaluation by providing evidence, reasons, methods, criteria, or assumptions behind the claims made and the conclusions reached. Deduction - decision making in precisely defined contexts where rules, operating conditions, core beliefs, values, policies, principles, procedures and terminology completely determine the outcome. Deductive reasoning moves with exacting precision from the assumed truth of a set of beliefs to a conclusion which cannot be false if those beliefs are untrue. Deductive validity is rigorously logical and clear-cut. -
Ohio Rules of Evidence
OHIO RULES OF EVIDENCE Article I GENERAL PROVISIONS Rule 101 Scope of rules: applicability; privileges; exceptions 102 Purpose and construction; supplementary principles 103 Rulings on evidence 104 Preliminary questions 105 Limited admissibility 106 Remainder of or related writings or recorded statements Article II JUDICIAL NOTICE 201 Judicial notice of adjudicative facts Article III PRESUMPTIONS 301 Presumptions in general in civil actions and proceedings 302 [Reserved] Article IV RELEVANCY AND ITS LIMITS 401 Definition of “relevant evidence” 402 Relevant evidence generally admissible; irrelevant evidence inadmissible 403 Exclusion of relevant evidence on grounds of prejudice, confusion, or undue delay 404 Character evidence not admissible to prove conduct; exceptions; other crimes 405 Methods of proving character 406 Habit; routine practice 407 Subsequent remedial measures 408 Compromise and offers to compromise 409 Payment of medical and similar expenses 410 Inadmissibility of pleas, offers of pleas, and related statements 411 Liability insurance Article V PRIVILEGES 501 General rule Article VI WITNESS 601 General rule of competency 602 Lack of personal knowledge 603 Oath or affirmation Rule 604 Interpreters 605 Competency of judge as witness 606 Competency of juror as witness 607 Impeachment 608 Evidence of character and conduct of witness 609 Impeachment by evidence of conviction of crime 610 Religious beliefs or opinions 611 Mode and order of interrogation and presentation 612 Writing used to refresh memory 613 Impeachment by self-contradiction -
Hume's Problem of Induction and the Universalization Of
In Defense of Newtonian Induction: Hume's Problem of Induction and the Universalization of Primary Qualities Ori Belkind November 1, 2018 Abstract This paper aims to advance two claims. First, it aims to show that Hume's argument against the rationality of induction is sound. However, I claim that the conclusion does not follow merely from the self-defeating attempts to justify the rule of induction, unlike traditional readings of the argument. Rather, the skeptical conclusion must also take into account Hume's argument that the secret powers that are present in bodies and give rise to sensible qualities are unknowable. The paper's second aim is to show that Newtonian induction escapes Hume's secret powers argument, given that it includes a transductive inference, from observable phenomena to the powers present in the ultimate parts of matter. Consequently Hume's argument against the rationality of induction does not demonstrate the non-rational nature of Newtonian induction. 1 Introduction This paper articulates a certain reading of Hume's argument against the rationality of induction. Unlike traditional interpretations of Hume's argument, mine takes his argument to involve two distinct sub-arguments; the first is that inductive inferences lack rational support. I term this sub-argument the No Rational Support Argument (NRSA) (Section 2). I also argue that Hume uses a second sub- argument, one I term the Secret Powers Argument, or SPA, to undermine our belief in the rationality of induction. According to the SPA (examined in Section 3), we do not have access to the secret powers of bodies. -
"What Is Evidence?" a Philosophical Perspective
"WHAT IS EVIDENCE?" A PHILOSOPHICAL PERSPECTIVE PRESENTATION SUMMARY NATIONAL COLLABORATING CENTRES FOR PUBLIC HEALTH 2007 SUMMER INSTITUTE "MAKING SENSE OF IT ALL" BADDECK, NOVA SCOTIA, AUGUST 20-23 2007 Preliminary version—for discussion "WHAT IS EVIDENCE?" A PHILOSOPHICAL PERSPECTIVE PRESENTATION SUMMARY NATIONAL COLLABORATING CENTRES FOR PUBLIC HEALTH 2007 SUMMER INSTITUTE "MAKING SENSE OF IT ALL" BADDECK, NOVA SCOTIA, AUGUST 20-23 2007 NATIONAL COLLABORATING CENTRE FOR HEALTHY PUBLIC POLICY JANUARY 2010 SPEAKER Daniel Weinstock Research Centre on Ethics, University of Montréal EDITOR Marianne Jacques National Collaborating Centre for Healthy Public Policy LAYOUT Madalina Burtan National Collaborating Centre for Healthy Public Policy DATE January 2010 The aim of the National Collaborating Centre for Healthy Public Policy (NCCHPP) is to increase the use of knowledge about healthy public policy within the public health community through the development, transfer and exchange of knowledge. The NCCHPP is part of a Canadian network of six centres financed by the Public Health Agency of Canada. Located across Canada, each Collaborating Centre specializes in a specific area, but all share a common mandate to promote knowledge synthesis, transfer and exchange. The production of this document was made possible through financial support from the Public Health Agency of Canada and funding from the National Collaborating Centre for Healthy Public Policy (NCCHPP). The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Public Health Agency of Canada. This document is available in electronic format (PDF) on the web site of the National Collaborating Centre for Healthy Public Policy at www.ncchpp.ca. La version française est disponible sur le site Internet du CCNPPS au www.ccnpps.ca. -
The Problem of Induction
The Problem of Induction Gilbert Harman Department of Philosophy, Princeton University Sanjeev R. Kulkarni Department of Electrical Engineering, Princeton University July 19, 2005 The Problem The problem of induction is sometimes motivated via a comparison between rules of induction and rules of deduction. Valid deductive rules are necessarily truth preserving, while inductive rules are not. So, for example, one valid deductive rule might be this: (D) From premises of the form “All F are G” and “a is F ,” the corresponding conclusion of the form “a is G” follows. The rule (D) is illustrated in the following depressing argument: (DA) All people are mortal. I am a person. So, I am mortal. The rule here is “valid” in the sense that there is no possible way in which premises satisfying the rule can be true without the corresponding conclusion also being true. A possible inductive rule might be this: (I) From premises of the form “Many many F s are known to be G,” “There are no known cases of F s that are not G,” and “a is F ,” the corresponding conclusion can be inferred of the form “a is G.” The rule (I) might be illustrated in the following “inductive argument.” (IA) Many many people are known to have been moral. There are no known cases of people who are not mortal. I am a person. So, I am mortal. 1 The rule (I) is not valid in the way that the deductive rule (D) is valid. The “premises” of the inductive inference (IA) could be true even though its “con- clusion” is not true. -
Epistemology and Philosophy of Science
OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – FIRSTPROOFS, Wed Apr 06 2016, NEWGEN Chapter 11 Epistemology and Philosophy of Science Otávio Bueno 1 Introduction It is a sad fact of contemporary epistemology and philosophy of science that there is very little substantial interaction between the two fields. Most epistemological theo- ries are developed largely independently of any significant reflection about science, and several philosophical interpretations of science are articulated largely independently of work done in epistemology. There are occasional exceptions, of course. But the general point stands. This is a missed opportunity. Closer interactions between the two fields would be ben- eficial to both. Epistemology would gain from a closer contact with the variety of mech- anisms of knowledge generation that are produced in scientific research, with attention to sources of bias, the challenges associated with securing truly representative samples, and elaborate collective mechanisms to secure the objectivity of scientific knowledge. It would also benefit from close consideration of the variety of methods, procedures, and devices of knowledge acquisition that shape scientific research. Epistemological theories are less idealized and more sensitive to the pluralism and complexities involved in securing knowledge of various features of the world. Thus, philosophy of science would benefit, in turn, from a closer interaction with epistemology, given sophisticated conceptual frameworks elaborated to refine and characterize our understanding of knowledge,