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Water Scenarios for the Danube River Basin: Future Challenges and Preparedness

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Water Scenarios for the Danube River Basin: Future Challenges and Preparedness Water scenarios for the Danube River Basin: future challenges and preparedness A foresight study to inform water management in the Danube River Basin Alberto Pistocchi, Laurent Bontoux, Sara Rafael Almeida 2020 EUR 30016 EN 1 This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Contact information Name: Alberto Pistocchi Address: via E.Fermi 2749 – Ispra, Italy E-mail: [email protected] Tel.: +390332783658 EU Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc JRC115635 EUR 30016 EN PDF ISBN 978-92-76-14177-8 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/134358 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020 © European Union, 2020 The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Except otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the EU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. All content © European Union, 2020 How to cite this report: Author(s), Pistocchi, A., Bontoux, L., Rafael Almeida, S., Water scenarios for the Danube River Basin: future challenges and preparedness. A foresight study to inform water management in the Danube River Basin; Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020, ISBN 978-92-76-14177-8, doi:10.2760/134358, JRC115635. All images © European Union, 2020, except Cover Image by Džoko Stach from Pixabay Title Water scenarios for the Danube River Basin: future challenges and preparedness. A foresight study to inform water management in the Danube River Basin Abstract 2018 We present the outcomes of a foresight study aimed at identifying the emerging challenges for water management in the Danube region, considering a set of possible future socioeconomic and political scenarios. For each scenario, we analyse the possible implications for key water management issues (wastewater treatment, diffuse pollution and hydromorphological alteration). Based on this analysis, we identify possible no-regret actions to adopt in the Danube region in order to improve water management in the long-term, along the three main lines: 1) Developing effective communities. 2) Basin-wide integration of the management of certain issues. 3) Bringing nature protection to the core of strategies. Sharing and strengthening capacity at various levels of water management is a precondition to avoid marginalization and impoverishment of regions within the Danube. Education of the youth in schools and universities (including through student exchanges and harmonization of educational programmes) is essential to create a more ecologically aware society. 2 "It is an emergency. In order to survive as a species we need to define our utopia (…) We have to imagine something that doesn't exist carve intentionally into the future and demand space for hope (…) let's imagine a world where nature and technology collaborate and make a song about it (…) then move into it (…) imagine a future and be in it." Björk Utopia Tour, 2018 3 Table of contents Executive summary ............................................................................................ 7 List of abbreviations ......................................................................................... 12 1. Introduction ............................................................................................ 13 2. Setting the scene ..................................................................................... 16 2.1 Socioeconomic signals from the Danube countries ........................................ 16 2.2 Demography and land use ......................................................................... 18 2.3 Water resources and their use ................................................................... 18 2.4 Climate scenarios and implications for water resources ................................. 24 3. River basin management and policy making in the Danube region .................. 26 3.1 Policy and regulatory basis ........................................................................ 26 3.2 Status of water bodies .............................................................................. 26 3.3 Significant Water Management Issues ......................................................... 26 Organic pollution from point sources ............................................................. 27 Nutrients from point and diffuse sources ........................................................ 27 Hazardous substances from point and diffuse sources...................................... 28 Hydromorphological alterations..................................................................... 28 3.4 Objectives and measures of the DRBMP ...................................................... 28 4. Scenarios ................................................................................................ 29 4.1 Scenario 1 - Large scale coherence ............................................................ 32 Trajectories ................................................................................................ 33 Challenges ................................................................................................. 33 4.2 Scenario 2 - Tailor-made solutions ............................................................. 34 Trajectories ................................................................................................ 35 Challenges ................................................................................................. 35 4.3 Scenario 3 - Multinationals rule .................................................................. 36 Trajectories ................................................................................................ 37 Challenges ................................................................................................. 37 4.4 Scenario 4 - Small-scale interventions ........................................................ 39 Trajectories ................................................................................................ 40 Challenges ................................................................................................. 40 5. Implications of the scenarios for the Danube River Basin Management Plan ..... 42 5.1 Challenges for wastewater treatment: too small, too complex or only for the rich? ................................................................................................................... 42 5.2 Challenges with diffuse pollution: who cares? .............................................. 43 5.3 Challenges with hydromorphological water habitat restoration: good to have, but just a little .................................................................................................... 45 6. Actions to improve long-term water management in the Danube River Basin ... 46 6.1 Developing effective communities .............................................................. 47 4 6.2 Basin-wide integration .............................................................................. 49 6.3 Nature conservation ............................................................................. 51 7. Development of capacities ......................................................................... 53 8. Concluding remarks .................................................................................. 57 References ...................................................................................................... 59 Annex 1 – Summary of the Danube EU Member States' socioeconomic conditions (European Semester 2017) and shares of GDP accounted for by agriculture and industry ...................................................................................................................... 61 Annex 2 – Shares of employment in the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics 2 (NUTS2) regions in the Danube river basin ....................................................... 69 Annex 3 –Global Innovation Index (GII) and Environmental Performance Index (EPI) in the Danube Countries, 2016 .............................................................................. 71 List of figures ................................................................................................... 77 List of tables
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