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Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20344 Telephone: 202.473.1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org Public Disclosure Authorized E-mail: [email protected] Contacts: Poonam Pillai, [email protected] Jan Bojo, [email protected] Maria Sarraf and Susmita Dasgupta, [email protected], [email protected] Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities Asian Development Bank Contact: Jay Roop, [email protected] Public Disclosure Authorized Japan International Cooperation Agency Contact: Megumi Muto, [email protected] Public Disclosure Authorized and A Climate Risks SYNTHESIS REPORT Public Disclosure Authorized Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities A Synthesis Report © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433, U.S.A. Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org/climatechange E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved. September 2010 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applica- ble law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-8400; fax 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. Cover images: Large image: Ho Chi Minh City, © Karen Kasmauski/Corbis Small images: top: Manila, © Francis R. Malasig/Corbis; middle: Bangkok, © I. Saxar/Shutterstock Images, LLC; bottom: Kolkata, © Bruce Burkhardt/ Corbis All dollars are U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated. Table of Contents Acknowledgments...................................................................................................................................vii Abbreviations.and.Acronyms................................................................................................................. ix Executive.Summary.................................................................................................................................. xi 1.. Introduction..........................................................................................................................................1 Background and Rationale ............................................................................................................................ 1 Objective........................................................................................................................................................... 2 Process of Preparation .................................................................................................................................... 3 Overview of Methodology/Approach and Climate Parameters Selected ............................................. 3 Structure of the Report ................................................................................................................................... 4 2.. Methodologies.for.Downscaling,.Hydrological.Mapping,.and.. Assessing.Damage.Costs....................................................................................................................5 Selection of Emissions Scenarios, Downscaling, and Uncertainties ...................................................... 5 Hydrological Modeling for Developing Scenarios of Flood Risk ........................................................... 9 Approach to Assessing Damage Costs ...................................................................................................... 12 Assessment of Damage Costs in the HCMC Study ................................................................................ 17 Assumptions about the Future of Cities in Estimating Damage Costs ............................................... 19 Conclusion: Methodological Limitations and Uncertainties in Interpreting Results of the Study ............................................................................................................................................. 20 3.. Estimating.Flood.Impacts.and.Vulnerabilities.in.Coastal.Cities.............................................23 Estimating Future Climate-related Impacts in Bangkok......................................................................... 23 Main Findings from Hydrological Analysis and GIS Mapping for Bangkok ..................................... 28 Estimating Climate-related Impacts in Manila ....................................................................................... 31 Findings from the Hydrological Analysis and GIS Mapping for Metro Manila ................................. 35 Estimating Climate-related Impacts in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam .................................................... 38 Main Findings from Hydrological Analysis and GIS Mapping for HCMC ......................................... 44 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................... 50 4.. Assessing.Damage.Costs.and.Prioritizing.Adaptation.Options..............................................51 Bangkok: Analysis of Damage Costs Related to Flooding in 2008 and 2050 ....................................... 51 Prioritization of Adaptation Options in Bangkok .................................................................................... 56 Analysis of Damage Costs Related to Flooding in Metro Manila ........................................................ 60 Prioritization of Adaptation Options in Manila ....................................................................................... 65 Analysis of Damage Costs in HCMC ........................................................................................................ 69 Analysis of Adaptation in HCMC .............................................................................................................. 72 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................... 73 iii 5.. Conclusions.and.Policy.Implications............................................................................................75 Key Findings and Lessons for Policy Makers ........................................................................................... 75 Lessons on Methodology for Follow-up Studies .................................................................................... 78 Bibliography..............................................................................................................................................81 Annexes A. Vulnerability of Kolkata Metropolitan Area to increased Precipitation in a Changing Climate ................................................................................................................................ 85 B. Scenarios Applied in the Hydrodynamic Modeling in the HCMC study ...................................... 91 C. Adaptation to Increased Flooding: Brief Overview ........................................................................... 93 D. Comparison of Costs across Cities ....................................................................................................... 97 Figures Figure 1.1 Asian Megacity Hotspots ................................................................................................................. 2 Figure 2.1 Hydrometeorological Model Schematic for Chao Phraya Watershed ......................................11 Figure 2.2 Manila Rainfall-Runoff Calibration Hydrographs ..................................................................... 12 Figure 2.3 Estimation of Damage to Buildings, Assets, and Inventories in the Bangkok and Manila Cases ............................................................................................................................. 14 Figure 2.3 Estimating Impacts—A Flow Chart .............................................................................................. 13 Figure 2.5 Possible Relationships between Flood Duration and Land Value Loss .................................. 18 Figure 3.1 Location of Bangkok in the Chao Praya River Basin .................................................................. 23 Figure 3.2 Land Elevations, 2002 versus 2050 Land Subsidence................................................................. 28 Figure 3.3 Maximum Water Depth for 1-in-30-year event, 2008 and 2050, A1FI ...................................... 29 Figure 3.4 Bangkok Flood Hazard Relationship...........................................................................................
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