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Summer 2005 The BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY Lessons in Engineering from the Tsunami in Thailand Robert A. Dalrymple and David L. Kriebel Tsunami Simulations and Numerical Models Philip L.-F. Liu Tsunami Warning Systems Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr. The Megatsunami of December 26, 2004 Costas Synolakis, Emile Okal, and Eddie Bernard Promoting the technological welfare of the nation by marshalling the knowledge and insights of eminent members of the engineering profession. The BRIDGE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING Craig R. Barrett, Chair Wm. A. Wulf, President Sheila E. Widnall, Vice President W. Dale Compton, Home Secretary George Bugliarello, Foreign Secretary William L. Friend, Treasurer Editor in Chief (interim): George Bugliarello Managing Editor: Carol R. Arenberg Production Assistant: Penelope Gibbs The Bridge (USPS 551-240) is published quarterly by the National Academy of Engineering, 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20418. Periodicals postage paid at Washington, DC. Vol. 35, No. 2, Summer 2005 Postmaster: Send address changes to The Bridge, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20418. Papers are presented in The Bridge on the basis of general interest and time- liness. They reflect the views of the authors and not necessarily the position of the National Academy of Engineering. The Bridge is printed on recycled paper. © 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A complete copy of each issue of The Bridge is available in PDF format at http://www.nae.edu/TheBridge. Some of the articles in this issue are also available as HTML documents and may contain links to related sources of information, multimedia files, or other content. The Volume 35, Number 2 • Summer 2005 BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY Editor’s Note 3Systems Challenges on a Global Scale George Bugliarello Features 4 Lessons in Engineering from the Tsunami in Thailand Robert A. Dalrymple and David L. Kriebel The design of civil engineering structures in tsunami-prone regions can be critical. 14 Tsunami Simulations and Numerical Models Philip L.-F. Liu Computational models of tsunamis can be used to design and operate early warning systems. 21 Tsunami Warning Systems Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr. NOAA has been using technology to detect and warn of tsunamis for more than three decades. 26 The Megatsunami of December 26, 2004 Costas Synolakis, Emile Okal, and Eddie Bernard It is too soon to know if Indian Ocean populations are better prepared today than they were last December. NAE News and Notes 36 NAE Newsmakers 38 NAE Officers and Councillors Elected; Councillor Completes Service 39 2005 Draper, Russ, and Gordon Prize Recipients Honored 42 Draper Prize Acceptance Remarks 42 Russ Prize Acceptance Statement 43 Gordon Prize Acceptance Remarks 44 News and Terrorism Super Session 45 Eighth German-American Frontiers of Engineering Symposium 46 Report of the Foreign Secretary 47 Engineering Studies at Tribal Colleges 48 Engineering Stories on the Airwaves 48 “Messages” for Engineering (continued on next page) The BRIDGE 48 Presidential Classroom at the Academies 49 Calendar of Meetings and Events 49 In Memoriam 50 Publications of Interest The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self- The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the author- to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility ity of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional char- has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on ter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. National Academy of Sciences. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, The National Research Council was organized by the National under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its adminis- science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering tration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal gov- accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the ernment. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engi- Council has become the principal operating agency of both the neering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages edu- National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engi- cation and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of neering in providing services to the government, the public, and the engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered of Engineering. jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org 3 Editor’s Note Systems Challenges on no excuse for not having global systems in place to a Global Scale address technical and scientific challenges, as well as other challenges, such as the adequacy of first respon- Human history has been ders, communications to populations at risk, local emer- punctuated by major natural gency responses, the facilitation and coordination of disasters, from the Thera international aid, and rapid decisions about the appro- eruption of around 1600 B.C., priateness of involving military organizations that have which generated a tsunami the logistic capabilities necessary to deliver assistance. some 100 meters high and The papers in this issue of The Bridge focus on various devastated northern Crete, aspects of the recent tsunami disaster. Philip Liu and the eruption of Mt. describes simulations of the propagation of the tsunami George Bugliarello is President Vesuvius in 79 A.D. that waves generated by the Sumatra earthquake and tsu- Emeritus and University Professor buried Herculaneum and nami. Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher Jr. underlines the at Polytechnic University in Brook- Pompeii, to the Lisbon imperative of linking, integrating, and extending obser- lyn, New York, and foreign secre- earthquake and tsunami in vational capacities. The paper by Robert Dalrymple and tary of NAE. November 1755 and the David Kriebel focuses on the survivability of structures eruption of Krakatoa and the hit by the tsunami waves. Costas Synolakis, Emile tsunami that followed in 1883. The tsunami event in Okal, and Eddie Bernard address other factors that December 2004, which devastated whole populations at greatly exacerbated the human disaster last December, the edge of the Indian Ocean, is a powerful warning, not such as widespread ignorance of the phenomenon, only of how unprepared some areas of the world are for shoreline configuration, lack of emergency prepared- major catastrophes, but also that we must be aware of ness, and inadequate evacuation plans. systems challenges on a global scale. These include Unfortunately, disaster prevention on a global scale tsunamis, volcanoes, global warming, the rise in sea lev- does not have as high a priority as smaller-scale prob- els, and the large meteorites that may hit Earth at some lems. For engineers to play an important role in global time in the future. The Indian Ocean tsunami reminds disaster prevention and mitigation, they must adopt a us that nature knows no political boundaries and that broad definition of engineering as a protector of our borders cannot stop the circulation of airborne pollution species from natural processes that are supremely indif- or limit the consequences of weapons of mass destruc- ferent to our plight and from the consequences of tion and other anthropogenic disasters. human follies on a global scale. In most engineering We can use the lessons we learn from disasters to try schools, however, global earth-systems engineering is to mitigate the consequences of similar events in the the province of a few specialized departments (or even future. The Indian Ocean tsunami might have been individuals). Knowledge of risk assessment, logistics, less deadly if sensors and a global warning system had warning systems, and the prevention and management been in place, if there had been local alert and evacua- of disasters and their consequences put engineering in tion systems for the populations at risk, if the global the proper context and should be a cultural requirement logistical support system for recovery had been more for engineering education. efficient, and if policies for coastal development had been more effective. Clearly, we need better ways of assessing risks and bet- ter defense mechanisms against them. There is really The design of civil engineering structures in tsunami-prone areas can be critical. Lessons in Engineering from the Tsunami in Thailand Robert A. Dalrymple and David L. Kriebel Living near the sea means living with the risk of a tsunami. In some areas, such as the Pacific Rim countries, the risk is high: the possibility of a signif- icant tsunami occurs on a decadal scale in Japan. In other regions of the Robert A. Dalrymple world—the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean—the risks are much lower. In the Indian Ocean, the risks are lower still, although tsunamis have occurred there in the past. The National Geographic Data Center (NGDC, 2005) lists 63 tsunami events in the Indian Ocean since 1750, eight of which were major events, including the wave caused by the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883 in the Sunda Strait (for a good read, see Winchester, 2003).