Spruk Lat Am Econ Rev (2019) 28:16 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40503-019-0076-2 Latin American Economic Review RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access The rise and fall of Argentina Rok Spruk* *Correspondence:
[email protected] Abstract School of Economics I examine the contribution of institutional breakdowns to long-run development, and Business, University of Ljubljana, Kardeljeva drawing on Argentina’s unique departure from a rich country on the eve of World ploscad 27, 1000 Ljubljana, War I to an underdeveloped one today. The empirical strategy is based on building Slovenia a counterfactual scenario to examine the path of Argentina’s long-run development in the absence of breakdowns, assuming it would follow the institutional trends in countries at parallel stages of development. Drawing on Argentina’s large historical bibliography, I have identifed the institutional breakdowns and coded for the period 1850–2012. The synthetic control and diference-in-diferences estimates here suggest that, in the absence of institutional breakdowns, Argentina would largely have avoided the decline and joined the ranks of rich countries with an income level similar to that of New Zealand. Keywords: Long-run development, New institutional economics, Political economy, Argentina, Applied econometrics JEL Classifcation: C23, K16, N16, N46, O43, O47 1 Introduction On the eve of World War I, the future of Argentina looked bright. Since its promulga- tion of the 1853 Constitution, Argentina had experienced strong economic growth and institutional modernization, which had propelled it into the ranks of the 10 wealthi- est countries in the world by 1913. In the aftermath of the war, Argentina’s income per capita fell from a level approximating that of Switzerland to its current middle-income country status.