SWP Comments 2008/C 17, July 2008, 5 Pages

Introduction

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs

The Race to the White House 2008: Historic in Many Ways SWP Comments Andrew Cohen

The first of the three acts of this long, feverish and historic presidential campaign of 2008 is over. The primary season, which stretched from the dead of winter to the end of spring, has finally produced nominees for the two major parties. Now, in the second act, the Republicans and the Democrats are mapping strategy, testing ideas and prepar- ing to gather at their national conventions in late summer. In the third act, they will face each other in the general election this autumn. If the primaries were prologue, it will be an extraordinary contest between two unorthodox candidates unlike any before. They will spend a record amount of money, recruit new voters, and, prospectively, redraw the electoral map of the United States.

Few presidential elections have changed as dacy; surely he could not unseat Clinton, quickly and decisively as this one. Nothing the party’s star. is as it first appeared to be, which is why it If you had said that Mike Huckabee, a would be foolish to predict the campaign’s little-known, long-serving governor of denouement on November 4. Conventional Arkansas, would emerge as the runner-up wisdom has been wrong from the start. It to McCain, or that the seemingly invincible was widely assumed in the summer of 2007, Giuliani would melt before the winter’s for example, that the Democrats would snows, that, too, would have been laughable. choose Senator Hillary Clinton of New York In each case, the improbable happened. and the Republicans would choose Rudolf Then again, this campaign is already the Giuliani, the former mayor of New York longest, most expensive, most competitive City. While both were in the race then, and most democratic in American political neither Senator Barack Obama of Illinois history. It is perfect political storm of super- nor Senator John McCain of Arizona seemed latives to describe the first truly open race a real possibility. McCain had dismissed for the White House—that is, one without most of his staff and was languishing in the a sitting president or vice-president run- polls; surely he was too old (then 71) and ning—since the election of 1952. independent to become his party’s nomi- When it began two years ago, who knew nee. Obama had been in the Senate only that the campaign would produce the two years when he announced his candi- oldest man to be nominated for president

Andrew Cohen is professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa. SWP Comments 17 In 2007–2008, he was a Visiting Fellow in the Americas Division of the SWP July 2008

1 by a major party? Or, that it would produce President. Obama disagrees with all of the first black man to be nominated for them. While McCain once opposed the Bush president by a major party, after he narrow- tax cuts ($1.35 trillion in 2001 and $320 ly defeated the most formidable woman billion in 2003), for example, he now wants ever to seek the presidency? In trying to to make them permanent. He has also define what has taken place in the last year proposed four new ones. Obama opposes all or so, let us examine some of the cam- of them, which he says are regressive and paign’s elements: policy, diversity, identity, favour the rich. He also opposed McCain’s electability, history, dynasty, inevitability, healthcare plan, which isn’t as comprehen- money, democracy, and strategy. sive as his. He will attack McCain for revers- ing himself on immigration, the treatment and torture of detainees in Guantanamo Bay Policy and offshore oil drilling. Among the leading Democrats, there were Obama isn’t trumpeting any grand surprisingly few real differences. On im- themes such as Kennedy’s New Frontier or migration, education and health care, Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society. He has Clinton and Obama were alike. The promi- plans and programs, but his appeal is less nence of universal health care, which was policy than personality. However, he will the leading domestic issue early on, sug- offer health care, tax cuts for the middle gests that the United States might be ready class and tax increases for those making to embrace it decades after Europe and more than $250,000 a year. He favours Canada. By the end of the campaign, though, more liberal immigration, controls on the deteriorating economy had displaced greenhouse gases, and has doubts about health care as the top domestic issue. the North American Free Trade Agreement. Clinton proposed rebates to diminish the McCain will attack him for his own in- impact of soaring gasoline prices; Obama consistency, such as reversing his support rejected the idea. On Iraq, Obama argued for campaign public financing. that he had opposed the war that Clinton supported. Among the leading Republicans, there Diversity were more differences, which was unusual No race has had the complexion—and the for a party which likes to choose its nomi- complexity—of this one. This year, for the nee early. In a primary season which Repub- first time, a woman, a black and a Hispanic lican strategist Ralph Reed called “the most American ran for the Democrats, all of unpredictable roller-coaster ride” since the them highly credible. As the field thinned, 1960s, some of the candidates urged a John Edwards was the lone white male in tougher line on immigration as they tried the race. For the Republicans, there was an to appeal to the party’s conservative base. Italian and a Mormon. Like the Democrats, though, the Republi- What does this say? Diversity matters cans thought other criteria (electability, in America. The country is not the mono- character) more important in choosing lith or melting pot; consider the rise of their nominee than policy. Hispanic America (44 million, 15 percent If there were few real differences within of the population) as a political force, par- the parties in the primary season, there ticularly in the Southwest. That the Demo- will be real differences between them in the crats have chosen a black man as their general election. Obama will label a McCain nominee and that Americans may make presidency “the third term of George W. him president shows the country’s capacity Bush,” and on the economy, Iraq and health to reinvent itself. In 2008, ethnic politics care, he can argue that the Senator’s posi- may be decisive. Obama hopes to mobilize tions are indeed close to those of the the highest turnout ever among Black

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2 America (40 million, 13 percent of the organization, not because she is a woman. population). Obama hopes his stand on And was Barack Obama a victim of racism? immigration—allowing illegal immigrants Both remain imponderable. to stay—will also attract support among Hispanic Americans, whom the Republi- cans are courting aggressively in places like Electability Florida. The Democrats are launching In the absence of serious issues among recruitment and registration drives in both Democrats, the ballot question in the communities. The challenge in wooing primaries turned on electability. Who had Hispanic voters, who are concentrated the best chance of winning in the fall? in Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, and Colo- Clinton argued that she had a longer record rado, is that they account for only ten per- of public service, had greater appeal to cent of the nation’s voters. Their commu- middle class whites, and had more experi- nity is disproportionately young and one ence in government. Obama said that he quarter of them cannot vote because they could appeal to independent voters, who are not citizens. Still, McCain and Obama might have voted for the Republicans, as will be vying intensely for them. well as younger voters, who had never voted at all. Beyond electability, the issue of experi- Identity ence defined the first act of the campaign. With diversity has come a return to identity Clinton said her seven years in the Senate politics. Despite the efforts of Clinton and and eight years in the White House as First Obama to broaden their appeal, in the end Lady had taught her how to lead, even if both were relying heavily on their core con- she was never clear about her responsibili- stituencies. Women (as well as older men, ties in the White House. (The one issue she Catholics, less-educated whites and His- called her own—healthcare—was the biggest panics) went for her. Blacks (as well as policy failure of her husband’s two-term young people and more-educated whites) presidency.) She declared Obama’s three went for him. The question is whether years in the Senate (after eight years in those voters who supported Clinton in the state politics in Illinois) inadequate prepa- big industrial states such as Pennsylvania ration for the presidency. Obama argued and Ohio will support Obama or switch to that his background (of mixed race), char- McCain, as some disenchanted supporters acter (cool and conciliatory) and his years threatened after Clinton was defeated. For living abroad were the basis of his appeal. Clinton, establishing an identity apart from Historically speaking, however, neither that of her husband was one of the great Clinton nor Obama had anywhere near challenges of her campaign. When she the experience that John F. Kennedy and asked him to play a major role—which he Richard Nixon had in 1960. did as fervent partisan on her behalf, dimin- ishing his stature as a former president—she made it more difficult for her to escape his Dynasty shadow. In the campaign, she had many After eight years of George W. Bush, follow- identities: heir apparent, come-back kid, ing eight years of Bill Clinton, following scrappy underdog, aggrieved victim, gra- four years of George H. Bush, many voters cious loser. Was Hillary Clinton a victim of resisted Hillary Clinton. After two decades misogyny? Her husband thought so, accus- of the House of Bush and the House of ing the media of sexism, though studies of Clinton, was America turning into the early campaign coverage suggest it wasn’t Stuarts and the Tudors? Was it becoming so. More likely, Clinton lost because she a banana republic, in which the presidency was the weaker candidate with a weaker is a diarchy? Not really, but it hurt Clinton.

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3 Enough Americans worried that the presi- New Hampshire Primary, was out of the dency has become a family affair, to be race before he entered it. The “inevitable” passed like a family heirloom from one switched places. Who predicted that? member, or one generation, to another. To Hillary Clinton had also once been inevi- some, political dynasties have an aura of the table, even more inevitable than McCain. aristocracy about them, which isn’t how She had fame, a name, money, the party the Founding Fathers imagined things. To establishment. She was defeated by Obama’s her harshest critics, a Clinton restoration insurgent candidacy—the most unorthodox seemed less Old World than Third World. since Jimmy Carter’s upstart campaign in 1976—with its masterful fundraising and tactical agility. Who predicted that? History Every campaign is haunted by history, this one more than most. Pundits compare Money Barack Obama with John F. Kennedy, as It isn’t surprising that money has been a if this were 1960. Both Senator Edward motif of the most expensive campaign ever. Kennedy, the president’s brother, and The Democrats raised more than $500 mil- Caroline Kennedy, his daughter, gave their lion, a record amount, led by Obama and much-coveted blessing to Obama. So did Clinton. Mitt Romney, the former governor Theodore Sorensen, JFK’s brilliant former of Massachusetts, who was considered a speechwriter. To many, Obama is the new strong challenger for the Republicans, Kennedy. spent $40 million of his own money on his A campaign of firsts? Never has a woman unsuccessful campaign. So skilled is Obama or a black fought this intensely for a party at fundraising that he has opted out of the nomination. Never has a man as old as John public finance system, which gives each McCain won his party’s nomination. Never major party candidate $84.1 million. It have so many people voted, volunteered demonstrates his ability to raise money. and donated money, as they did in the pri- Because of his mastery of the Internet, and mary season, particularly on behalf of his ability to appeal to thousands of small Democrats. Another historical footnote: donors who can give again and again, some whichever party wins, a sitting senator will predict he will raise $300 million, enabling go the White House for the first time since him to compete in states such as Alaska, 1960. Americans have come to prefer presi- Colorado, Georgia and Mississippi, where dents who had the executive experience of Democrats do not do well. McCain, who governors (Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, will be unable to match Obama, is remain- Bill Clinton, George W. Bush) or vice-presi- ing in the public finance system. dents (Nixon, Gerald Ford, George H. Bush). Senators have won nominations but they haven’t won elections. Democracy The campaign was grassroots democracy at work. There were 22 debates among the Inevitability candidates in 57 contests in every state and This campaign marked the end of “inevita- territory in which 35 million people voted bility.” In the beginning, John McCain was for Democrats alone. This shows the im- the frontrunner for the Republicans. He portance of campaigns in the making of the was inevitable. Then he was no longer in- president. It is an enervating process that evitable; Rudy Giuliani was inevitable. But seems to go on forever, starting earlier each a funny thing happened in the primaries: quadrennial cycle. (JFK announced his Giuliani, who refused to mount a serious candidacy in January, 1960, for a primary campaign in the Iowa Caucuses and season that began in March.) This time the

SWP Comments 17 July 2008

4 candidates entered the race in 2006 or Obama will face questions about his 2007, and the first electoral test—the Iowa patriotism (he now wears the American caucus—was January 3, 2008. To become flag in his lapel after refusing earlier), his president, a candidate must run a mara- experience (he has no background in for- thon—building an organization, raising eign policy) and his race and faith (many money, winning endorsements, crafting erroneously believe he is Muslim and are policy, participating in one debate after wary of electing a black man, a prejudice another. It is challenging, to be sure; there few admit to pollsters). But he is a phenom- may be no office in the world in which so enon, a handsome tribune of soaring ora- many voters have a say. For all the cynicism tory and cross-party appeal, with a broad, about politics, the race of 2008 has become magical message of change that has in- an invigorating debate about the future of spired young and black Americans. If they America. While there were problems—Flori- both turn out in record numbers, they will da and Michigan were not given full repre- put into play states such as North Carolina, sentation at the Democratic Convention Georgia and Virginia. He will also compete © Stiftung Wissenschaft und because they violated party rules in holding in Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, where Politik, 2008 their primaries—more people had a say in Democrats aren’t usually competitive. In All rights reserved choosing the nominees than ever before. other words, he will not confine his cam- These Comments reflect And speak they did. Obama won Iowa, paign to states that Al Gore and John Kerry solely the author’s view. and Clinton won New Hampshire. Then he won in 2000 and 2004, he will push beyond SWP won 11 consecutive contests. By mid spring them. Assuming he picks the right running Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik she began winning in places like Penn- mate and unites the party, he will lead a German Institute for sylvania and West Virginia. Still, Obama’s smart, opportunistic campaign which International and Security Affairs 50-state campaign paid off, even if he may overturn traditional assumptions and limped rather than sprinted over the finish expectations. Obama will talk foremost Ludwigkirchplatz 3−4 line in June. about the economy, where the Democrats 10719 Berlin Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 traditionally do better than Republicans. Fax +49 30 880 07-100 He will also talk about change, change, www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] Strategy change, as he did so successfully against How will it turn out in November? John Hillary Clinton. Remarkably, he was able to ISSN 1861-1761 McCain will face questions about his age present himself more of an agent of change (72 on inauguration day), his character (he as a black than she as a woman. If he can do has an explosive temper) and his judgment that again in the fall, he will win. (he supported the war in Iraq). He will cast Whether it is McCain or Obama, the himself as a maverick, a war hero with a United States will change; both are too dif- distinguished record of public service in ferent in intellect and temperament from the military and politics. But he has the George W. Bush. Change is the clarion call misfortune of trying to succeed a deeply of the campaign of 2008, and the candidate unpopular president in a country at war who masters the message will carry the day and in recession. McCain will portray his and win the country. opponent as callow and glib, as well as a free-spending “liberal.” Selling himself as a moderate, he will try to poach votes from Obama in traditionally Democratic states such as Oregon, Washington, New Hamp- shire, and Maine. If McCain can make national security and foreign policy the ballot question, and broaden his base by attracting independents and disaffected Democrats, he will win.

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