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Introduction Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs The Race to the White House 2008: Historic in Many Ways SWP Comments Andrew Cohen The first of the three acts of this long, feverish and historic presidential campaign of 2008 is over. The primary season, which stretched from the dead of winter to the end of spring, has finally produced nominees for the two major parties. Now, in the second act, the Republicans and the Democrats are mapping strategy, testing ideas and prepar- ing to gather at their national conventions in late summer. In the third act, they will face each other in the general election this autumn. If the primaries were prologue, it will be an extraordinary contest between two unorthodox candidates unlike any before. They will spend a record amount of money, recruit new voters, and, prospectively, redraw the electoral map of the United States. Few presidential elections have changed as dacy; surely he could not unseat Clinton, quickly and decisively as this one. Nothing the party’s star. is as it first appeared to be, which is why it If you had said that Mike Huckabee, a would be foolish to predict the campaign’s little-known, long-serving governor of denouement on November 4. Conventional Arkansas, would emerge as the runner-up wisdom has been wrong from the start. It to McCain, or that the seemingly invincible was widely assumed in the summer of 2007, Giuliani would melt before the winter’s for example, that the Democrats would snows, that, too, would have been laughable. choose Senator Hillary Clinton of New York In each case, the improbable happened. and the Republicans would choose Rudolf Then again, this campaign is already the Giuliani, the former mayor of New York longest, most expensive, most competitive City. While both were in the race then, and most democratic in American political neither Senator Barack Obama of Illinois history. It is perfect political storm of super- nor Senator John McCain of Arizona seemed latives to describe the first truly open race a real possibility. McCain had dismissed for the White House—that is, one without most of his staff and was languishing in the a sitting president or vice-president run- polls; surely he was too old (then 71) and ning—since the election of 1952. independent to become his party’s nomi- When it began two years ago, who knew nee. Obama had been in the Senate only that the campaign would produce the two years when he announced his candi- oldest man to be nominated for president Andrew Cohen is professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa. SWP Comments 17 In 2007–2008, he was a Visiting Fellow in the Americas Division of the SWP July 2008 1 by a major party? Or, that it would produce President. Obama disagrees with all of the first black man to be nominated for them. While McCain once opposed the Bush president by a major party, after he narrow- tax cuts ($1.35 trillion in 2001 and $320 ly defeated the most formidable woman billion in 2003), for example, he now wants ever to seek the presidency? In trying to to make them permanent. He has also define what has taken place in the last year proposed four new ones. Obama opposes all or so, let us examine some of the cam- of them, which he says are regressive and paign’s elements: policy, diversity, identity, favour the rich. He also opposed McCain’s electability, history, dynasty, inevitability, healthcare plan, which isn’t as comprehen- money, democracy, and strategy. sive as his. He will attack McCain for revers- ing himself on immigration, the treatment and torture of detainees in Guantanamo Bay Policy and offshore oil drilling. Among the leading Democrats, there were Obama isn’t trumpeting any grand surprisingly few real differences. On im- themes such as Kennedy’s New Frontier or migration, education and health care, Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society. He has Clinton and Obama were alike. The promi- plans and programs, but his appeal is less nence of universal health care, which was policy than personality. However, he will the leading domestic issue early on, sug- offer health care, tax cuts for the middle gests that the United States might be ready class and tax increases for those making to embrace it decades after Europe and more than $250,000 a year. He favours Canada. By the end of the campaign, though, more liberal immigration, controls on the deteriorating economy had displaced greenhouse gases, and has doubts about health care as the top domestic issue. the North American Free Trade Agreement. Clinton proposed rebates to diminish the McCain will attack him for his own in- impact of soaring gasoline prices; Obama consistency, such as reversing his support rejected the idea. On Iraq, Obama argued for campaign public financing. that he had opposed the war that Clinton supported. Among the leading Republicans, there Diversity were more differences, which was unusual No race has had the complexion—and the for a party which likes to choose its nomi- complexity—of this one. This year, for the nee early. In a primary season which Repub- first time, a woman, a black and a Hispanic lican strategist Ralph Reed called “the most American ran for the Democrats, all of unpredictable roller-coaster ride” since the them highly credible. As the field thinned, 1960s, some of the candidates urged a John Edwards was the lone white male in tougher line on immigration as they tried the race. For the Republicans, there was an to appeal to the party’s conservative base. Italian and a Mormon. Like the Democrats, though, the Republi- What does this say? Diversity matters cans thought other criteria (electability, in America. The country is not the mono- character) more important in choosing lith or melting pot; consider the rise of their nominee than policy. Hispanic America (44 million, 15 percent If there were few real differences within of the population) as a political force, par- the parties in the primary season, there ticularly in the Southwest. That the Demo- will be real differences between them in the crats have chosen a black man as their general election. Obama will label a McCain nominee and that Americans may make presidency “the third term of George W. him president shows the country’s capacity Bush,” and on the economy, Iraq and health to reinvent itself. In 2008, ethnic politics care, he can argue that the Senator’s posi- may be decisive. Obama hopes to mobilize tions are indeed close to those of the the highest turnout ever among Black SWP Comments 17 July 2008 2 America (40 million, 13 percent of the organization, not because she is a woman. population). Obama hopes his stand on And was Barack Obama a victim of racism? immigration—allowing illegal immigrants Both remain imponderable. to stay—will also attract support among Hispanic Americans, whom the Republi- cans are courting aggressively in places like Electability Florida. The Democrats are launching In the absence of serious issues among recruitment and registration drives in both Democrats, the ballot question in the communities. The challenge in wooing primaries turned on electability. Who had Hispanic voters, who are concentrated the best chance of winning in the fall? in Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, and Colo- Clinton argued that she had a longer record rado, is that they account for only ten per- of public service, had greater appeal to cent of the nation’s voters. Their commu- middle class whites, and had more experi- nity is disproportionately young and one ence in government. Obama said that he quarter of them cannot vote because they could appeal to independent voters, who are not citizens. Still, McCain and Obama might have voted for the Republicans, as will be vying intensely for them. well as younger voters, who had never voted at all. Beyond electability, the issue of experi- Identity ence defined the first act of the campaign. With diversity has come a return to identity Clinton said her seven years in the Senate politics. Despite the efforts of Clinton and and eight years in the White House as First Obama to broaden their appeal, in the end Lady had taught her how to lead, even if both were relying heavily on their core con- she was never clear about her responsibili- stituencies. Women (as well as older men, ties in the White House. (The one issue she Catholics, less-educated whites and His- called her own—healthcare—was the biggest panics) went for her. Blacks (as well as policy failure of her husband’s two-term young people and more-educated whites) presidency.) She declared Obama’s three went for him. The question is whether years in the Senate (after eight years in those voters who supported Clinton in the state politics in Illinois) inadequate prepa- big industrial states such as Pennsylvania ration for the presidency. Obama argued and Ohio will support Obama or switch to that his background (of mixed race), char- McCain, as some disenchanted supporters acter (cool and conciliatory) and his years threatened after Clinton was defeated. For living abroad were the basis of his appeal. Clinton, establishing an identity apart from Historically speaking, however, neither that of her husband was one of the great Clinton nor Obama had anywhere near challenges of her campaign. When she the experience that John F. Kennedy and asked him to play a major role—which he Richard Nixon had in 1960. did as fervent partisan on her behalf, dimin- ishing his stature as a former president—she made it more difficult for her to escape his Dynasty shadow.

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