ARIZONA
All interviews conducted by telephone among 467 likely voters in the Arizona Republican primary by ORC International on February 17-20, 2012. Sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 21 AT 4 PM
BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 467 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS WHO ARE LIKELY TO VOTE IN THE ARIZONA REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
ARIZONA
1. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (RANDOM ORDER)
Feb. 17-20 2012
Romney 36% Santorum 32% Gingrich 18% Paul 6% Someone else (vol.) * None/ No one (vol.) 1% No opinion 6%
2. Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?
Feb. 17-20 2012
Definitely support 58% Might change mind 34% No opinion 8%
No opinion includes respondents with no first choice in Q.1.
CNN|TIME|ORC POLL -2- February 17-20, 2012
METHODOLOGY
In Arizona, a total of 2,007 adults, including 670 registered Republicans, were interviewed by telephone using standard random-digit dialing methods. All respondents were asked questions concerning their registration status and basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect statewide Census figures for gender, race, age, education and region of the state. 467 likely voters were identified based on each respondent's party registration status (only registered Republicans were selected), stated intention to participate in the 2012 primary, interest in the campaign to date, and self-reported voting history.
CNN|TIME|ORC POLL -3- February 17-20, 2012
ARIZONA
Arizona CNN/TIME/ORC International Poll -- February 17 to February 20, 2012 Likely Voter Question 1
If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support.
Under 50 and Total Men Women 50 older ------Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 18% 21% 15% N/A 17% Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% 7% 6% N/A 7% Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney 36% 34% 38% N/A 36% Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 32% 31% 33% N/A 34% Someone else * * * N/A * None/no one 1% 1% 1% N/A 1% No opinion 6% 5% 7% N/A 5% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.0
No Under $50K College College Total $50K or more Degree Grad ------Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 18% 20% 18% 19% 17% Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% 10% 5% 6% 7% Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney 36% 36% 37% 35% 38% Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 32% 28% 33% 33% 31% Someone else * * * * * None/no one 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% No opinion 6% 4% 6% 6% 6% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.5
Moder- ate or Conserv Born Again White Blue Total Liberal -ative Yes No Collar Collar ------Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 18% N/A 17% 20% 15% 17% 17% Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% N/A 5% 5% 8% 5% 8% Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney 36% N/A 34% 28% 42% 39% 34% Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 32% N/A 35% 37% 30% 32% 33% Someone else * N/A * * * * * None/no one 1% N/A 1% * 1% 1% 3% No opinion 6% N/A 7% 9% 3% 5% 5% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-5.0+/-7.0 +/-6.0 +/-6.0 +/-7.5
Rest Sub- Tea Pty of urban/ Tea Pty Neutral Total Maricopa State Urban Rural Support /Oppose ------Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 18% 17% 20% 14% 21% 21% 15% Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% 5% 9% 7% 4% 7% 5% Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney 36% 38% 33% 40% 35% 32% 42% Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 32% 32% 33% 30% 35% 35% 27% Someone else * * * * * * * None/no one 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% * 3% No opinion 6% 7% 5% 6% 4% 4% 8% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-5.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 +/-7.0
* percentage less than 1%
CNN|TIME|ORC POLL -4- February 17-20, 2012
ARIZONA
Arizona CNN/TIME/ORC International Poll -- February 17 to February 20, 2012 Likely Voter Question 1/2
Q1. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Q2. Would you say you will definitely support that candidate, or is it possible you would change your mind?
Under 50 and Total Men Women 50 older ------Definitely support 58% 57% 60% N/A 62% Might change mind 34% 36% 32% N/A 31% No opinion 8% 7% 8% N/A 7% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.0
No Under $50K College College Total $50K or more Degree Grad ------Definitely support 58% 58% 56% 61% 56% Might change mind 34% 35% 37% 32% 36% No opinion 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.5
Moder- ate or Conserv Born Again White Blue Total Liberal -ative Yes No Collar Collar ------Definitely support 58% N/A 57% 53% 63% 61% 55% Might change mind 34% N/A 34% 37% 33% 33% 38% No opinion 8% N/A 9% 11% 4% 6% 8% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-5.0+/-7.0 +/-6.0 +/-6.0 +/-7.5
Rest Sub- Tea Pty of urban/ Tea Pty Neutral Total Maricopa state Urban Rural Support /Oppose ------Definitely support 58% 59% 58% 67% 52% 65% 50% Might change mind 34% 33% 37% 24% 43% 31% 39% No opinion 8% 9% 5% 9% 6% 4% 12% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-5.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 +/-7.0
* percentage less than 1%
CNN|TIME|ORC POLL -5- February 17-20, 2012