FLORIDA
SOUTH CAROLINA
All interviews conducted by telephone among 391 likely voters in the Florida Republican primary and 505 likely voters in the South Carolina Republican primary by ORC International on January 13-17, 2012. Sampling error for Florida is +/-5 percentage points. Sampling error for South Carolina is +/-4.5 percentage points.
FOR RELEASE: WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 18 AT 4 PM
BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 391 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS WHO ARE LIKELY TO VOTE IN THE FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
FLORIDA
- 1.
- If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following
people you would be most likely to support. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (RANDOM ORDER) And if that candidate decides not to run for president for any reason, who would be your second choice?
Jan. 13-17
2012
Nov. 29 – Dec. 6
2011
Romney Santorum Gingrich Paul
43% 19% 18%
9% 2%
*
25%
1%
48%
5% 3% 1% 3% 3% 3% 7%
Perry Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) Bachmann Huntsman No opinion
3% N/A N/A 6%
NOTE: In Jan. 13-17 poll, Jon Huntsman's name was included in the list of candidates through January 15. Results indicate the second choice of respondents who chose Huntsman as their first choice. In Nov. 29-Dec. 6 poll, Herman Cain's name was included in the list of candidates until December 3. Results indicate the second choice of respondents who chose Cain as their first choice.
- 2.
- Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would
change your mind?
Jan. 13-17
2012
Nov. 29–Dec. 6
2011
Definitely support Might change mind Other (vol.)
53% 38%
*
37% 53%
*
- No opinion
- 9%
- 10%
No opinion includes respondents with no first choice in Q.1.
- -2-
- January 13-17, 2012
CNN|TIME|ORC POLL
BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 505 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO ARE LIKELY TO VOTE IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
SOUTH CAROLINA
- 1.
- If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following
people you would be most likely to support. -- former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (RANDOM ORDER)
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS LIKELY TO VOTE
Jan. 13-17
2012
Jan. 4-5
2012
Nov. 29 - Dec. 6
2011
Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul
33% 23% 16% 13%
6% 1% 2% N/A N/A 6%
37% 18% 19% 12%
5%
*
20% 43%
4% 6% 8%
*
Perry Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) Bachmann Huntsman No opinion
- *
- *
N/A 1% 6%
6% 1%
11%
NOTE: In Jan. 13-17 poll, Jon Huntsman's name was included in the list of candidates through January 15. Results indicate the second choice of respondents who chose Huntsman as their first choice. In Nov. 29-Dec. 6 poll, Herman Cain's name was included in the list of candidates until December 3. Results indicate the second choice of respondents who chose Cain as their first choice.
- 2.
- Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would
change your mind?
Jan. 13-17
2012
Jan. 4-5 Nov. 29 - Dec. 6
- 2012
- 2011
Definitely support Might change mind Other (vol.)
57% 35%
*
44% 49%
*
34% 55%
*
- No opinion
- 8%
- 7%
- 11%
No opinion includes respondents with no first choice in Q.1.
- -3-
- January 13-17, 2012
CNN|TIME|ORC POLL
METHODOLOGY
In Florida, a total of 1,508 adults, including 472 registered Republicans, were interviewed by telephone using standard random-digit dialing methods. All respondents were asked questions concerning their registration status and basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect statewide Census figures for gender, race, age, education and region of the state. 391 likely voters were identified based on each respondent's party registration status (only registered Republicans were selected), stated intention to participate in the 2012 primary, interest in the campaign to date, and self-reported voting history.
In South Carolina, a total of 1,525 adults were interviewed by telephone using standard random-digit dialing methods. All respondents were asked questions concerning their registration status and basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect statewide Census figures for gender, race, age, education and region of the state. 505 likely voters were identified based on each respondent's stated intention to participate in the 2012 primary, interest in the campaign to date, and self-reported voting history.
- -4-
- January 13-17, 2012
CNN|TIME|ORC POLL
FLORIDA
Florida CNN/TIME/ORC International Poll -- January 13 to 17, 2012
Likely Voter
Q5. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support.
Q6A. And if that candidate decides not to run for president for any reason, who would be your second choice?
Non- Under 50 and
Total -----
18%
9%
Men
-----
19% 13%
1%
42% 18%
1%
Women -----
17%
4%
- White
- White
- 50
- older
----- ------ ------ ------
Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich Texas Congressman Ron Paul Texas Governor Rick Perry Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum Someone else
19%
8% 2%
44% 18%
*
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
20%
6% 1%
43% 20%
1%
- 2%
- 2%
43% 19%
*3% 6%
44% 19%
*4% 9%
- None/no one
- 2%
3%
1% 7%
2%
- 7%
- No opinion
- Sampling Error
- +/-5.0 +/-6.5 +/-7.5 +/-5.0
- +/-5.5
No College College Degree Grad ------- -------
Under
$50K
----- N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
$50K or more -------
18%
Total -----
18%
9%
Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich Texas Congressman Ron Paul Texas Governor Rick Perry Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum Someone else
22% 10%
2%
14%
8% 2%
12%
3%
46% 16%
2%
43% 19%
*
34% 22%
*
54% 14%
- 1%
- 1%
- None/no one
- 3%
- N/A
- *
- 3%
- 1%
No opinion Sampling Error
6%
+/-5.0
- N/A
- 4%
+/-7.5
6%
+/-7.0
6%
+/-7.0
Moderate or Liberal
Conserv Born Again
- -ative Yes No
- Total
-----
18%
9%
------- ------- -----------
Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich Texas Congressman Ron Paul Texas Governor Rick Perry Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum Someone else
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
21%
8% 2%
18%
7% 4%
19% 11%
- 1%
- 2%
43% 19%
*3% 6%
39% 22%
1%
31% 34%
1%
50%
9% *
- None/no one
- 1%
- 1%
- 3%
No opinion Sampling Error
- 7%
- 4%
- 7%
- +/-5.0
- +/-6.0+/-8.0 +/-6.5
Tea Pty
- North
- T Bay
- Urban/ Exurb
- Tea Pty Neutral
- Support /Oppose
- Total Central South Suburb Rural
----- ------- ------- ------ ------ ------- -------
Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich Texas Congressman Ron Paul Texas Governor Rick Perry Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum Someone else
18%
9% 2%
21%
8% 2%
17% 10%
2%
22% 11%
2%
16%
8% 2%
21%
8% 3%
15%
9% 1%
43% 19%
*
36% 25%
1%
48% 14%
*
41% 16%
*
45% 21%
1%
38% 24%
1%
50% 14%
*
- None/no one
- 3%
- 1%
- 4%
- 5%
- 1%
- *
- 4%
No opinion Sampling Error
6%
+/-5.0
- 7%
- 6%
- 4%
- 8%
- 5%
- 7%
- +/-7.5
- +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.5 +/-6.5
* percentage less than 1%
- -5-
- January 13-17, 2012
CNN|TIME|ORC POLL
FLORIDA
Florida CNN/TIME/ORC International Poll -- January 13 to 17, 2012
Likely Voter
Q6. Would you say you will definitely support that candidate, or is it possible you would change your mind?
Non- Under 50 and
Total -----
53% 38%
9%
Men
-----
55% 39%
6%
Women -----
50% 37% 13%
- White
- White
- 50
- older
----- ------ ------ ------
Definitely support Might change mind No opinion
51% 40%
9%
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
50% 41%
9%
- Sampling Error
- +/-5.0 +/-6.5 +/-7.5 +/-5.0
- +/-5.5
No College College Degree Grad ------- -------
Under
$50K
----- N/A
$50K
Total -----
53% or more -------
- 56%
- Definitely support
Might change mind No opinion
55% 36%
51%
- 41%
- 38%
- N/A
- 39%
9%
+/-5.0
- N/A
- 5%
+/-7.5
9%
+/-7.0
8%
- +/-7.0
- Sampling Error
Moderate or Liberal
Conserv Born Again
- -ative Yes No
- Total
-----
53% 38%
9%
------- ------- -----------
Definitely support Might change mind No opinion
N/A N/A N/A
55% 37%
9%
54% 41%
6%
52% 38% 10%
- Sampling Error
- +/-5.0
- +/-6.0+/-8.0 +/-6.5
Tea Pty
Tea Pty Neutral Support /Oppose
- North
- T Bay
- Urban/ Exurb
Total Central South Suburb Rural ----- ------- ------- ------ ------ ------- -------
Definitely support Might change mind No opinion
53% 38%
9%
55% 36%
9%
51% 40%
9%
58% 33%
8%
49% 42%
9%
58% 36%
5%
47% 42% 11%
- Sampling Error
- +/-5.0
- +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.5 +/-6.5
- +/-7.5
* percentage less than 1%
- -6-
- January 13-17, 2012
CNN|TIME|ORC POLL
SOUTH CAROLINA
South Carolina CNN/TIME/ORC International Poll -- January 13 to 17, 2012
Likely Voter
Q5. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support.
Q6A. And if that candidate decides not to run for president for any reason, who would be your second choice?
Non- Under 50 and
Total -----
23% 13%
6%
33% 16%
1%
Men
-----
28% 14%
5%
32% 14%
*
Women -----
16% 12%
8%
34% 17%
2%
- White
- White
- 50
- older
----- ------ ------ ------
Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich Texas Congressman Ron Paul Texas Governor Rick Perry Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum Someone else
24% 14%
5%
33% 16%
*
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
23%
9% 5%
36% 15%
2%
None/no one No opinion
2% 6%
2% 4%
2% 8%
2% 6%
3% 8%
- Sampling Error
- +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-6.5 +/-4.5
- +/-5.0
No College College Degree Grad ------- -------
Under
$50K
-----
21% 12% 14% 29% 13%
4%
$50K or more -------
25%
Total -----
23% 13%
6%
33% 16%
1%
Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich Texas Congressman Ron Paul Texas Governor Rick Perry Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum Someone else
26% 10% 10%
18% 17%
3%
16%
3%
35% 16%
29% 16%
2%
38% 15%
- 1%
- *
None/no one No opinion
2% 6%
2% 5%
1% 5%
2% 5%
2% 7%
- Sampling Error
- +/-4.5 +/-8.5
- +/-6.5
- +/-6.0
- +/-6.0
Moder-
- ate or
- Conserv Born Again
-ative Yes No
- Repub
- Indep
Total -----
23% 13%
6%
33% 16%
1%
Liberal ------- ------- ----------- lican -----
25% 11%
6%
33% 18%
2% 1% endent ------
19% 19%
9%
32% 10%
*3%
Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich Texas Congressman Ron Paul Texas Governor Rick Perry Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum Someone else
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
24% 12%
6%
30% 19%
*
23% 12%
9%
26% 20%
2%
22% 17%
1%
47%
8% *
None/no one No opinion
2% 6%
2% 7%
1% 7%
3%
- 2%
- 5%
- 9%
- Sampling Error
- +/-4.5
- +/-5.0+/-5.5 +/-7.5
- +/-5.0
- +/-8.5
Tea Pty
Low
Total P'mont Midlands Cty
Urban/ Exurb/ Tea Pty Neutral Suburb Rural Support /Oppose
----- ------ -------- ------ ------ ------ ------- -------
Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich Texas Congressman Ron Paul Texas Governor Rick Perry Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum Someone else
23% 13%
6%
33% 16%
1%
22% 18%
6%
30% 17%
1%
20%
9% 9%
33% 18%
3%
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
19% 11%
6%
38% 16%
4%
24% 14%
7%
30% 16%
*
31% 13%
5%
26% 20%
*
13% 14%
6%
43% 10%
3%
None/no one No opinion
2% 6%
2% 4%
2% 7%
1% 5%
2% 7%
1% 5%
4% 7%
- Sampling Error
- +/-4.5 +/-7.5 +/-7.0
- +/-8.0 +/-5.5
- +/-6.0
- +/-7.0
* percentage less than 1%
- -7-
- January 13-17, 2012
CNN|TIME|ORC POLL
SOUTH CAROLINA
South Carolina CNN/TIME/ORC International Poll -- January 13 to 17, 2012
Likely Voter
Q6. Would you say you will definitely support that candidate, or is it possible you would change your mind?
Non- Under 50 and
Total -----
57% 35%
8%
Men
-----
58% 35%
6%
Women -----
55% 34% 10%
- White
- White
- 50
- older
----- ------ ------ ------
Definitely support Might change mind No opinion
57% 35%
8%
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
55% 34% 11%
- Sampling Error
- +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-6.5 +/-4.5
- +/-5.0
No College College Degree Grad ------- -------
Under
$50K
-----
54% 38%
8%
$50K
Total -----
57% 35%
8% or more -------
- 62%
- Definitely support
Might change mind No opinion
56% 37%
58% 33%
9%
32%
- 6%
- 7%
- Sampling Error
- +/-4.5 +/-8.5
- +/-6.5
- +/-6.0
- +/-6.0
Moder-
- ate or
- Conserv Born Again
-ative Yes No
- Repub
- Indep
endent ------
51% 39% 11%
Total -----
57% 35%
8%
Liberal ------- ------- ----------- lican -----
59% 34%
7%
Definitely support Might change mind No opinion
N/A N/A N/A
56% 34% 10%
56% 35%
9%
60% 34%
5%
- Sampling Error
- +/-4.5
- +/-5.0+/-5.5 +/-7.5 +/-5.0
Tea Pty
Low
Total P'mont Midlands Cty
Urban/ Exurb/ Tea Pty Neutral Suburb Rural Support /Oppose
----- ------ -------- ------ ------ ------ ------- -------
Definitely support Might change mind No opinion
57% 35%
8%
57% 38%
6%
59% 32%
9%
N/A N/A N/A
59% 35%
6%
56% 35%
9%
61% 33%
6%
52% 37% 11%
- Sampling Error
- +/-4.5 +/-7.5 +/-7.0
- +/-8.0 +/-5.5
- +/-6.0
- +/-7.0
* percentage less than 1%
- -8-
- January 13-17, 2012
CNN|TIME|ORC POLL