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India Light Vehicle Sales Update

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India Light Vehicle Sales Update April 2018 India Light Vehicle Sales Update New Agreements & New Models to Galvanize the Market India’s Light Vehicle (LV) wholesales rose by 9% year-on-year (YoY) to 356k units in March. Passenger Vehicle (PV) sales increased by 6% YoY to 285k units. The Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) segment again outperformed our expectations, with solid growth of 23% YoY to 70k units. On a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) basis, sales in March climbed slightly to 3.86 mn units in March, compared to 3.83 mn units in February and 3.90 mn units in January. The year-to-date average SAAR was thus at 3.87 mn units, versus full-year 2017 sales of 3.68 mn units. The Indian industry certainly ended the first quarter on a positive note, bolstered by new model launches and generally positive economic conditions. Total LV volume in the January-March period improved by 10% YoY to 1.01 mn units. This tally was divided between 820k PVs (+8% YoY) and 191k LCVs (+24% YoY). It is also worth mentioning that the growth rate was partially driven by a low base effect, since sales in Q1 2017 were weak because of the impact of the government’s demonetization drive in November 2016. New Model Additions We added eleven new entries to this month to incorporate the recent developments at VW Group and new agreements between Ford and Mahindra, and Suzuki and Toyota. Ford and Mahindra have agreed to jointly develop SUVs in India. We therefore added two new Ford SUVs to our forecast. The first is the Ford C-SUV, which is assumed to be ready by mid-2021. Notably, the model will share the same platform as the second-generation Mahindra XUV500 and it is possible that this new platform will be jointly developed by Mahindra, SsangYong and Ford. The second vehicle is the Ford B-SUV, which is likely to arrive by mid-2022. Our assumption is that the B-SUV will sit on SsangYong's X100 platform. At the same time, Ford plans to utilize Mahindra’s EV technology to introduce the Figo Aspire EV in India. We also added the Mahindra B-SUV as part of this joint product development. The new vehicle is likely to roll out by 2022, and be built on SsangYong's X100 platform. At the same time, we added the Mahindra EV Sedan, which is expected to be ready by 2021. The model may be based on Ford’s B2E platform. Another important agreement was formed between Suzuki and Toyota to share certain models in India. Under the deal, Maruti Suzuki India will supply the New Baleno and Vitara Brezza to Toyota, while Toyota will produce the Corolla for Maruti-Suzuki. These rebadged models have now been added to the outlook. VW Group has charged Škoda with the task of developing the India-specific MQB A0 IN platform. The modified vehicle architecture will underpin three vehicles each for Volkswagen and Škoda. The first models are likely to be SUVs, which we have added as the Škoda B-SUV and Volkswagen B-SUV, slated to come out by 2021 and 2022, respectively. We also added the next-generation Škoda Fabia, which may be the new MQB A0 IN-based hatchback for India. Other existing models in the forecast likely to be part of the same deal are the next generations of the Škoda Rapid and Volkswagen Polo, as well as the upcoming Volkswagen Virtus. That being said, it also possible that Škoda and Volkswagen may choose to replace their existing sedans and hatchbacks with all- new models and nameplates built on the MQB A0 IN platform. At the heart of the above developments is the aim to reduce costs and bring competitively priced products to the Indian market. w ww.lm c-auto.c om Oxford ● Detroit ● Frankfurt ● Bangkok ● Shanghai ● São Paulo ● Tokyo 1 India Light Vehicle Sales Update Forecast Change India’s PV sales forecast has been adjusted downward by an average of 27k units a year through the long term. In contrast, we hiked our LCV projections for 2018 and 2019 by 34k units and 19k units, respectively. The long-term outlook is mostly unchanged. Full-year 2018 LV sales are forecast at 3.99 mn units (+8% YoY). w ww.lm c-auto.c om Oxford ● Detroit ● Frankfurt ● Bangkok ● Shanghai ● São Paulo ● Tokyo 2 India Light Vehicle Sales Update Market Top Lines Best Selling Models Mar Growth YTD Growth 2018 Growth Mar Growth Share YTD Growth Share Sales 407,614 10% 1,141,652 11% PV PV 285,454 6% 820,447 8% 3,285,840 7% Maruti-Suzuki Dzire 22,195 40% 7.8% 65,676 30% 8.0% LCV 70,437 23% 190,567 24% 707,711 15% Maruti-Suzuki Alto 23,303 24% 8.2% 62,197 1% 7.6% M&H CV 51,723 16% 130,638 19% Maruti-Suzuki Swift 19,207 24% 6.7% 50,943 20% 6.2% Production 473,976 0% 1,373,802 11% LCV PV 351,878 2% 1,038,834 8% 4,112,097 9% Tata Ace 15,322 61% 5.4% 42,107 70% 5.1% LCV 72,717 24% 200,732 22% 764,635 20% Maruti-Suzuki Eeco 7,231 31% 2.5% 19,415 12% 2.4% M&H CV 49,381 17% 134,236 18% Maruti-Suzuki Omni 6,458 6% 2.3% 18,949 -16% 2.3% Top Brands (Sales) Top Manufacturers (Production) # Brand Mar Growth YTD Growth # Manufacturer Mar Growth YTD Growth 1 Maruti-Suzuki 105,153 14% 296,172 3% 1 Maruti Suzuki India 126,373 1% 392,765 7% 2 Hyundai 48,009 7% 138,022 7% 2 Hyundai Group 63,424 10% 176,258 10% 3 Suzuki 28,328 19% 88,471 59% 3 Ford Group 21,699 -21% 73,613 7% 4 Mahindra 23,661 6% 65,165 9% 4 Mahindra 24,845 10% 70,006 15% 5 Tata 20,266 31% 58,092 43% 5 Suzuki Group 29,133 104% 60,354 132% 6 Honda 13,574 -28% 40,062 -18% 6 Renault-Nissan 20,381 -35% 59,913 -23% 7 Toyota 12,539 -9% 36,754 3% 7 Tata Motors 14,738 6% 45,177 5% 8 Ford 9,016 4% 27,507 10% 8 Toyota Kirloskar India 12,849 -5% 37,349 0% 9 Renault 7,683 -37% 21,907 -32% 9 Honda Cars India 8,633 -39% 36,076 -15% 10 Datsun 3,947 -5% 10,936 0% 10 Tata-Fiat 8,674 826% 26,587 731% 11 Volkswagen 3,715 -22% 10,350 -19% 11 Volkswagen Group 9,546 -27% 26,155 -29% 12 Jeep 2,291 2312% 6,602 2258% 12 General Motors Group 7,062 -11% 21,442 -16% Passenger Passenger Vehicle 13 Mercedes-Benz 1,596 28% 4,556 25% Passenger Vehicle 13 Škoda Auto 1,347 89% 4,473 130% 14 Škoda 1,484 -13% 3,971 -4% 14 Daimler Group 1,409 41% 3,996 36% 15 Nissan 975 -17% 2,934 -16% 15 BMW Group 687 23% 2,073 29% 16 BMW 795 13% 2,377 17% 16 Force Motors 473 5% 970 13% 17 Audi 629 -26% 1,775 -11% 17 Premier Auto 175 -12% 528 -10% 18 Force 468 48% 1,261 52% 18 Bajaj Auto 233 3229% 450 364% 19 Land Rover 364 33% 1,021 36% 19 Volvo Group India 131 N/A 311 N/A 20 Volvo 236 58% 666 88% 20 Hindustan Motors 23 -68% 83 -66% 1 Tata 25,597 56% 68,377 55% 1 Mahindra 26,507 24% 70,385 21% 2 Mahindra 20,922 -6% 57,395 9% 2 Tata Motors 21,697 26% 63,046 33% 3 Maruti-Suzuki 15,101 27% 42,439 5% 3 Maruti Suzuki India 16,689 17% 46,882 6% 4 Ashok Leyland 4,756 53% 12,891 57% 4 Force Motors 2,483 18% 5,981 11% 5 Force 2,908 -6% 6,498 -1% 5 Eicher Motors 361 668% 962 149% 6 Isuzu 579 122% 1,472 123% 6 Piaggio 189 -25% 401 -46% 7 Eicher 359 553% 989 131% 7 Commercial Commercial Vehicle 8 Piaggio 215 42% 506 -24% Commercial Vehicle 9 10 8th May 2018 For further information contact Ms. Sukanya Tunhau, Phone +662 264 2050, [email protected] w ww.lm c-auto.c om Oxford ● Detroit ● Frankfurt ● Bangkok ● Shanghai ● São Paulo ● Tokyo 3 LMC Automotive LMC Automotive is a market leader in the provision of automotive intelligence and forecasts to an extensive client base of car and truck makers, component manufacturers and suppliers, financial, logistics and government institutions around the world and is highly respected for its extremely responsive customer support. It offers forecasting services covering global sales and production for light vehicles and heavy trucks, as well as forecasts of engine and transmission supply and demand. In addition, LMC Automotive publishes special studies on subjects of topical interest to the automotive industry. LMC Automotive is part of the LMC group. LMC is the global leader in economic and business consultancy for the agribusiness sector. For further information about LMC Automotive, you can visit us at www.lmc-auto.com or email us at [email protected]. ©LMC Automotive Ltd, 2018. All rights reserved in all countries. Decisions based on this information are at the user’s own risk and LMC Automotive cannot accept any liability for its accuracy. If the information in this document is reproduced in any form then full attribution must be given to LMC Automotive.
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