Documentof TheWorld Bank Public Disclosure Authorized ReportNo: 18018-GUA

PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT

Public Disclosure Authorized ONA

PROPOSED CREDIT

IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 6.8 MILLION (US$9 MILLION EQUIVALENT)

TO

THE CO-OPERATIVE REPUBLIC OF

FOR AN Public Disclosure Authorized EL NINO EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE PROJECT

September 29, 1998 Public Disclosure Authorized Finance,Private SectorDevelopment and InfrastructureSMU Caribbean CMU Latin Americaand the CaribbeanRegion CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Exchange Rate Effective: September 14, 1998

Currency Unit = Guyana D)ollar US$1.00 = G$162

FISCAL YEAR

January 1 - December 31

ABBREVIATIONS AND AClRONYMS

CAS Country Assistance Strategy CDC Civil Defense Commission CTB Central Tender Board ENSO El Ninfo Southern Oscillation ESAF Extended Structural Adjustment Facility GOG Government of Guyana GS&WC Georgetown Sewerage and Water Commissioners GUYWA Guyana Water Authority RD Hydrometeorological Division MOA Ministry of Agriculture MOF Ministry of Finance MOH&W Ministry of Housing and Water MOW Ministry of Works NDIB National Drainage and Irrigation Board PCU Project Coordinating Unit PEU Project Executing Unit SIMAP Social Impact Amelioration Program

Vice President: Shahid Javed Burki Country Director: Orsalia Kalantzopoulos Sector Director: Danny M. Leipziger Task Team Leader: Thakoor Persaud GUYANA El NifioEmergency Assistance Project CONTENTS

A. Project DevelopmentObjective 1. Project development objective ...... 2 2. Key performance indicators ...... 2

B. Strategic Context 1. Sector-related CAS goal supported by the project ...... 2 2. Main sector issues and Government strategy ...... 2 3. Sector issues to be addressed by the project and strategic choices ...... 3

C. Project Description Summary 1. Project components ...... 4 2. Key policy and institutional reforms supported by the project ...... 4 3. Benefits and target population ...... 5 4. Institutional and implementation arrangements ...... 5

D. Project Rationale 1. Project alternatives considered and reasons for rejection ...... 7 2. Major related projects financed by the Bank and/or other development agencies ...... 8 3. Lessons learned and reflected in the project design ...... 8 4. Indications of borrower commitment and ownership ...... 9 5. Value added of IDA support in this project ...... 9

E. Summary Project Analyses 1. Economic ...... 9 2. Financial ...... 10 3. Technical ...... 10 4. Institutional ...... 10 5. Social ...... 11 6. Environmental ...... 11 7. Participatory approach...... 11

F. Sustainability and Risks 1. Sustainability ...... 12 2. Critical risks ...... 12 3. Possible controversial aspects ...... 13

G. Main Credit Conditions 1. Effectiveness conditions ...... 13 2. Other ...... 13

H. Readiness for Implementation ...... 14

I. Compliancewith IDA Policies ...... 14 Annexes

Annex 1. ProjectDesign Sumniary...... 15 Annex 2. ProjectDescription ...... 17 Annex 3. EstimatedProject Costs...... 20 Annex4. Cost-BenefitAnalysis Summary ...... 23 Annex5. Procurementand DisbursementArrangements ...... 25 Table A. ProjectCosts by ProcurementArrangements ...... 27 TableAl. ConsultantSelection Arrangements ...... ,.,,., 28 Table B. Thresholdsfor ProcurementMethods and Prior Review...... 29 Table C. Allocationof Credit Proceeds...... 30 Annex 6. ImplementationPlan ...... 31 Annex 7. PerformanceIndicators ...... 36 Annex 8. El Nifio SouthernOscillation and its Influenceon Guyana's Precipitation...... 37 Annex 9. Areas Benefitingfrom ProjectWorks ...... 49 Annex 10. EnvironmentalMitigation Measures ...... 52 Annex 11. ProjectProcessing Budget and Schedule...... 54 Annex 12. Documentsin ProjectFile ...... 55 Annex 13. Status of Bank Group Operationsin Guyana...... 56 A,nnex14. Countryat a Glance ...... 58

Map GUYANA El NifioEmergency Assistance Project Project Appraisal Document

Latin America and the Caribbean Region Caribbean Country Management Unit

Date: TaskTeam Leader/TaskManager: September24, 1998 ThakoorPersaud CountryManager/Director: Sector Director: Orsalia Kalantzopoulos DannyLeipziger Project ID: Sector: Program Objective Category: GY -PE - 57271 MultiSector (MY) EconomicManagement Lending Instrument: EmergencyRecovery Credit Program of Targeted Intervention: [ ] Yes [X] No

ProjectFinancing Data [] Loan [X] Credit [ Guarantee [] Other [Specify]

Amount(US$m/SDRm): US$9.0m/SDRs 6.8 m. Proposed terms:; Graceperiod (years): Standard(10 years) Yearsto maturity: Standard(40 years) Commitmentfee: Standard(a variablerate between0% and 0.5% of the undisbursedcredit balance set annuallyby the ExecutiveDirectors of IDA).

Servicecharge: Standard(0.75%)

Financing plan (US$m):$10.2 million equivalent Source Local Foreign Total Government 1.2 1.2 IDA 2.99 6.01 9.0 Other(specify) Total 4.19 6.01 10.2

Borrower: Co-operativeRepublic of Guyana

CoordinatingAgency: CivilDefense Commission (CDC) in the Officeof the President

ImplementationAgencies: NDIB, GUYWA,GSWC, HD and PEU

Estimateddisbursements (Bank FY/US$M): 1999 2000 2001 2002 Annual 1.0 3.5 3.5 1.0 Cumulative 1.0 4.5 8.0 9.0

Projectimplementation period 3 years

Expectedeffectiveness date: November30, 1998

Expectedclosing date: November30, 2001

OSD PAD Form: July 30, 1997 2

A: Project Development Objective

1. Project Development Objectives (see Annex 1): * Help to restore the country's agricultural capacity in drought-stricken areas through vulnerability reduction measures in the areas of hydrologic extremes. * Help in providing safe and reliable potable water service to marginal urban and remote hinterland and riverine communities which have been affected by drought. * Help restore flood protection in low-lying areas of the city of Georgetown.

2. Key Performance Indicators:

Project Development Indicators: * Increase in the production of sugar, rice and other foodstuffs to pre-drought levels over 3 years. * Increase in the proportion of population with access to reliable and safe potable water service in drought-affected areas over 3 years. - Progressive reduction of flooding incidents in the City of Georgetown over three years.

Output Indicators: - ;Gettingsluices and drainage systems repaired and rehabilitated, pumps acquired and installed and operating. - Area/Farmers benefiting from project works. * Actual vs. planned time taken to implement project works. * Number of vulnerable households benefiting from access to potable water.

Input/Implementation Progress Indicators: - Time taken to contract out works. a Number of sluices and canals rehabilitated, outfalls cleared, pumps acquired and installed, operational efficiency of system. a For potable water, number of wells dug, service level and quality, number of beneficiaries.

B: Strategic Context

1. Sector-related Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) goal[supported by the project (see Annex 1): CAS document number: P6155-GUA Date of latest CAS discussion: December 21, 1993

The project supports the CAS' overall goals of promoting sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction, by seeking to restore the country's agricultural caLpacityin drought stricken areas and helping to restore safe and reliable potable water service to drougfht-affected marginal urban, hinterland and riverine communities. 2. Main sector issues and Government strategy: The El Nifo Emereencv in Guyana

The disruption of the normal ocean-atmosphere relationship in the tropical Pacific Ocean has had important world-wide impact, frequently negative, upon economic activities. Documented references to this event, more commonly known as the El Nifo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, began hundreds of years ago; however, it has only recently been possible for scientists to collect very detailed 3 data for comprehensive analysis of various aspects of its development, duration, impact and related characteristics.

The ocean-atmosphere system oscillates among warm to neutral to cold phases with a normal periodicity of roughly 3-4 years. Because of its duration, intensity and destruction, the 1997-1998 ENSO is being compared with the 1982-1983 one which is blamed for significant economic losses estimated at US$14 billion worldwide. While most of the recent focus has been upon ENSO's warm phase (El Nifno),the cold phase (La Nifia) also has its lagged impact upon several areas, generally subjecting them to the reverse conditions which they experienced under El Niuo. Additional details of the ENSO's influence on Guyana's climate can be found in Annex 8.

The Government's Response. The economy of Guyana has only recently begun to recover from several decades of decline during which, apart from a very high debt overhang (over US$2,000 per capita), the country's infrastructure system has been almost totally neglected. In line with IDA's, CAS', and IMF's ESAF's agreements, the Government is focusing upon some of the most critical sectors of the economy, e.g., health, education, administrative reform, transport, agriculture and mining. While it did receive some infornation on the expected impact of the ENSO phenomenon, given its established priorities and limited resource base, it did not take many immediate mitigative actions. The fact that the ENSO impact was in the form of a slowly-developing drought also contributed to the Government's initial measured response in its advisory to farmers to conserve water and to plant less acreage in rainfed areas and its request for UNDP assistance in contracting an international expert to evaluate the impact of ENSO and to advise it on the actions it needed to take.

As the drought worsened and the extent of crop losses and potable water scarcity became clearer, the Government declared a State of Emergency on March 26, 1998 and gave the Civil Defense Committee (CDC), an entity within the Presidential Secretariat, the responsibility for coordinating all ENSO relief and reconstructionlrehabilitation efforts. It deployed its existing stock of irrigation pumps and fortified retaining structures in various areas which could benefit from the remaining water supply. For residents who needed potable water, it acquired several tanker trucks and established an emergency water distribution system. In the interior regions, creeks and rainwater are the primary potable water source. After the drought worsened, rainwater became scarce and the creeks became saline. The Government, within its limited budget constraint rehabilitated several hand pumps in remote areas and dug some new wells.

Other Donor/Lender Response. Damage assessment reports were prepared to document the nature and extent of the problem and several donor meetings took place with UNDP assistance. The international donor community responded with an assistance program aimed at addressing identified relief needs. The Bank, IDB and other international entities were asked to assist in the recovery phase. Among the response of these entities, the IDB has prepared an emergency credit by reallocating funds from an ongoing operation to provide recovery, reconstruction and some technical assistance. It is financing repair of one of the more-seriously damaged water conservancy system where low water level and fires caused collapse of the conservancy walls, structural cracks and pockets and destruction of several wooden retaining structures and bridges. The Government of Canada has also provided emergency aid for two mobile pumps to help water management activities and the EU has provided about US$300,000 for various activities.

3. Sector issuesto be addressedby the projectand strategic choices: This Credit was prepared in response to identified emergency prevention and reconstruction needs. Because of the nature of the proposed works and activities,and in line with OP 8.50, the project is not specificallymeant to address long-term sectoral issues. Nevertheless, many of these issues are being 4

addressedthrough the Bank's CAS program, along with ongoingprograms of other donors and lenders such as the IDB, CDB and the EU in the drainage and irrigation and potable water sectors. Among the main sector issues which are being addressedthrough such ongoingoperations are the need for:

* Clear and comprehensivesector policies and regulationsgoverning water-resource management, standards,use, etc.; * Strongersector institutions,appropriately staffed, to assumetheir role in the sector; * Better operationand maintenanceand cost recoverypractices; * Makingoperational the Government'sdecentralized structure to allow local governmententities a greater role in sector activities;and * A stronger,well-equipped and fully-staffedemergency early-warning system along with clearly- establishedprocedures for disseminationand utilizationof its findings.

C: Proiect Description Summary

1. Project components (see Annex 2for a detailed descriptionand Anne-x 3for a detailed cost breakdown):

Component Category CostIncl. % of IDA % of Contingencies Total financing IDA

(11 M = 7__M_ (US$M) financing 1. AgricultureProduction Capacity Recovery & Regeneration Program 1.1 Drainage and Irrigation Physical, 3.96 39.0 3.47 88 Management 1.2 HydrometeorologicalSupply and Physical, 0.17 2.0 0.17 100 DisseminationProgram Management

2. PotableWater Service Recovery and Restoration Program 2.1 Recovery and Regeneration Physical, 1.15 11.0 1.01 88 Management 2.2 DroughtMitigation Measures Physical 3.98 39.0 3.48 87

3. GeorgetownFlood Protection Physical 0.62 6.0 0.55 89 Restoration Program

4. Project Coordination Management 0.32 3.0 0.32 100

Total 10.20 100 9.00 88

2. Key policy and institutional reforms supported by the project: While as an emergency operation, this project does not directly support any key policy and institutional reform measures, it is envisagedthat the works and TA which are to be provided would be operated and maintained in a manner similar to those of other non-emergency sector operations which are being financed by the Bank and other lenders/donors. To some degree, the streamlined procurement procedures, operation manuals, TA for basic early-warning and monitoring hydrometeorological systems, complement several ongoing efforts and would help in promoting better long-term operation and management practices. 5

3. Benefits and target population: The primary benefits from the proposed drainageand irrigation works would arise from having a more reliable drainage and irrigation system in the project areas, including a more effective disseminationof hydrometeorologicalinformation, so that the effects of both floods and droughtscan be mitigated.For the potable water system,the primary benefits would be access to a reliable emergencysource of potable water and reduced time spent in water collection. Furthermnore,the population of Georgetownwould benefit from additional fire protectionas a result of the storagetank. The GeorgetownFlood Protection RestorationProgram would help protect recent investmentsin street and canal rehabilitation. It would also help protect businessesand housingin the affectedareas from otherwiseintermittent flood damage.

The main beneficiariesof the proposed project works would be the small farmers who use the drainage and irrigation system for their rice, sugar-caneand cash crops and residents who live in marginal urban and rural areas where regular and reliable potable water access is poor or absent. Annex 9 presents a detailed breakdownby project componentof the different areas to benefit from the proposed project. In total about 176,000 acres will benefit from the proposed project works. The potable water service recovery and restoration program will benefit about 63,000 inhabitants. The Georgetown Flood Protection Restoration Program is expected to provide flood relief to approximately45,000 residents livingin the affected areas. 4. Institutional and implementation arrangements: InstitutionalFramework. In order to support ongoing institutionalreform initiatives and strengthen sector institutions,it was agreed that responsibilityfor implementationof the proposed works would be throughthe entities which normally do them, i.e., NDIB and HD of the Ministry of Agriculture(MOA), GUYWA and the GS&WCof the Ministryof Housing and Water (MOH&W),the PEU of the Ministry of Works (MOW), all under the coordinationof the CDC (within the Office of the President),which has responsibility for coordinating all ENSO operations in the country. The NDIB, GUYWA and the GS&WCare Governmentcorporations, each being an independentlegal entity.

In line with this structure, a Project CoordinatingUnit (PCU) was establishedwithin the CDC, and a senior civil servant was appointedcoordinator of the unit. He will report to the head of the CDC, who in turn will be advised by a Steering Committee comprisingthe heads of the entities implementingthe project. Given the relatively smallscale of the project works and their similarityto ongoing works of the concerned entities, it is not expected that the coordination unit will have any significant role in the technical aspects of the operation. The Governmenthas entered into individual subsidiary agreements, satisfactoryto IDA, with NDIB, HD, GUYWA and the GS&WCrespectively, for the implementationof the project components under their respective jurisdictions. The Project Coordinating Unit has the responsibilityfor environmentalreview and supervisionof the implementationof mitigation measures, which are an integral part of the design and implementationplan for all works. If during project implementation,a modification of, or departure from any project activity is proposed, the Project CoordinatingUnit will provide IDA the necessary informationto assess the significance of potential environmentalimpacts and required mitigationmeasures. The Coordinatorwill have close contact with the implementingentities, and among other tasks, he will process the paymentrequests of each entity and be responsiblefor submittingquarterly progress reports, audit reports, reimbursementrequests, etc. An environmentalspecialist has been identified to be hired on a part-timebasis to assist the Coordinatorin supervisingthe environmentalaspects of the project.

Each of the implementingentity, except for the PEU of the Ministry of Works and Hydrometeorological Division, has employed the incrementalstaff needed for the additionalproject works. The NDIB has hired one senior engineerplus two engineers and a financial specialist. The implementingentities of the MOH&W (GUYWA and the GS&WC) will share the services of a senior technical expert whose qualificatiorisand experiencehave been reviewed and found acceptableto the IDA (to be paid with credit 6 funds). The expert will work with the staff assigned to the proposed works in the respective entities. Furthermore, GUYWA has hired two additional engineers to help implement its component. Additional equipment, vehicles and office space would also be financed under the credit to facilitate the proposed project works. Each implementing entity would be responsible for documenting and verifying its expenses before sending these to the Project Coordinating UJnitfor payment.

Financial Management. The financial management and accounting systems of the project executing agencies were reviewed and found satisfactory. The Drainage and Irrigation Board will continue to rely on the Ministry of Agriculture to perform its basic accounting and financial management functions. Nevertheless, an accountant has been hired to assist in maintaining project accounts and keep track of expenditures. The financial systems for the Coordinating lUnit has been designed. The Government has hired accounting/financial staff with qualifications and experience acceptable to IDA in the NDIB and the Coordinating Unit prior to negotiations. A Chart of Accounts has been prepared for the Coordinating Unit to classify and group expenditures by project components, activities, disbursement categories and sources of funds. Internal control procedures have also been prepared as part of the Coordinating Unit's Management Information System. The Chart of Accounts and the internal control procedures for the proposed implementing agencies were reviewed and found to be acceptable. Both are now in the process of computerization.

Because this is an emergency operation, it is expected that the project will be fully implemented within three years after approval by IDA. It is expected that all of the project funds would be fully committed, with contracts signed within eighteen months of Credit Agreement Effectiveness and works completed within three years.

The GOG has prepared an operational manual for the Coordinating Unit which includes an organizational chart, administrative procedures, staffing, financial regulation and project procurement and implementation plan. The operation manuals of the proposed executing agencies were reviewed and found satisfactory.

Procurement. Details of the procurement procedures were discussed and agreed with the GOG. In order to avoid delays in procurement of goods and works, the GOG has agreed to a streamlined system of procurement based upon the CDC's emergency procurement procedures and IDA Standard Bidding Document. A system of bidder prequalification (PQ) was discussed and agreed upon with representatives of the proposed participating entities and the Central Tender Board (CTB). The PQ documents were prepared and advertised on July 16, 1998 and a preliminary meeting was held with interested contractors on August 10, 1998. This does not preclude the entities frorn use of their normal procurement procedures for minor works and those which can be done quicker under the current system. Procurement audits would be undertaken by private auditors who would be hired by the Project Coordinating Unit, following procedures acceptable to IDA.

Reporting. There will be monthly reports (for internal use), with quarterly progress reports sent by each implementing unit through the Project Coordinator to IDA. While there would be no specific operation and maintenance, cost recovery or similar credit conditions, both the GOG and the IDA share the view that some special efforts are needed to ensure that the services provided under the proposed credit would be sustainable. Apart from project implementation indicators and some indicators on use and maintenance of the physical works, the GOG has agreed to inform IDA of progress being made in ongoing sector reform projects with IDB, the EU and other donors and lenders. It will also be required to hire consultants to prepare semestral updates on financial and technical performance which will be sent to IDA within one month after the end of the corresponding semester. A mid-term review will be conducted to assess progress and determine any needed action. 7

D: ProjectRationale

1. Projectalternatives considered and reasons for rejection:

(a) Implementation of Project through the Social Amelioration Program (SIMAP). SIMAP is implementing a social investment fund which the IDA and IDB are both financing. This unit is working throughout the country and it was considered as a possible implementing entity for the project. However, while on the positive side, use of SIMAP could have helped in avoiding some start-up cost and delays, on the negative side, there were several arguments as well. First was the fact that SIMAP has a full load and could not have implemented this project without additional staff and complementary resources. Second was that very specialized skills are needed for most of the project works and the entities in Guyana which traditionally do such tasks would be much better-suited to implement the project and provide the necessary follow-up actions. Third was that SIMAP has had several difficult implementing phases in its operation and it lacks the necessary skills to properly implement a program such as this, which would be considered large compared to its area of focus. Because of these reasons, use of SIMAP was not pursued further.

(b) Establishing a special project unit to implement this project. This approach had a lot of appeal since in theory, it could avoid many of the problems of the existing sector entities and get the works completed in a shorter time. However, upon analyzing this approach more closely, it was decided that apart from the problem of recruiting and retaining staff with the needed skills, it would undermine the role of the traditional sector entities and perhaps contribute to later operation and maintenance problems. Additionally, the Government did not want to have another entity duplicating functions of its established sector institutions and increasing its salary budget.

(c) Use of sector entities without any coordination mechanism. While this approach had the appeal of minimizing the need for any coordinating institution and holding each entity accountable for its actions, it also ran the risk of getting the project works bogged down in the normal difficulties facing non- emergency operations (e.g., procurement and staffing needs). Also, centralized record keeping would greatly facilitate the meeting of auditing requirements and would enhance internal controls. Additionally, it was felt that there was need to use the leverage of the President's Office to help in ensuring that the project works are completed on time and that the traditional sector entities are held accountable for their performance. 8

2. Major related projects financed by the Bank and/or other development agencies (completed, ongoing and planned):

Sector Issue Project Latest Supervision (Form 590) Ratings

IP DO Bank-financed GuyanaInfrastructure Rehabilitation U U GuyanaWater SupplyTechnical Assistance & U U Rehab. SIMAP S S Peru: El NifnoEmergency Assistance S S Bolivia: El NifloEmergency Assistance S S Argentina:El NifioEmergency Flood Project S S Ecuador: El NiffoEmergency Assistance S S New Guinea:El NifloEmergency Assistance S S

Otherdevelopment aaencies Water SupplyProject (CDB)

______Drainage and Irrigation (IDB) IP/DORatings: HS (HighlySatisfactory), S (Satisfactory),U (Unsatisfactory),HU (HighlyUnsatisfactory), NY (Not Yet Supervised)

3. Lessons learned and reflected in the project design:

a. General Lessons Learned: (i) Emergency recovery operations usually require that borrowers demonstrate a very high level of organizational and implementation skills at a tirne when the system is at its most vulnerable point, with productive assets damaged and policy.-makers,technical staff and others occupied with several competing demands. Thus, it is important to keep projects simple and to focus on key areas of need, doing as much up-front preparatory work as possible, and leaving longer-term reform measures for normal sector operations.

(ii) Many countries suffer from chronic deferred maintenance problems and poor strategic planning systems. There is a very narrow tolerance range of these systems to fluctuations generated by good and bad years in a normal cycle. With such fragile systems, extreme or prolonged shocks could precipitate a chain reaction in which subsequent minor disruptions are magnified. It is therefore necessary to intervene to help stabilize the situation, using appropriate simple technology with low operation and maintenance needs and to make the borrower aware of the importance of placing greater priority upon overall improved operation and maintenance and better strategic planning to avoid such recurrences.

b. Country-Specific Lessons Learned:

(i) The procurement system is cumbersome and has been blamed for delays in the implementation of other projects. To ensure that this does not happen in this project, the Borrower has agreed to use a special fast-track system and it has also agreed to prequalify potential contractors and use the latest IDA Standard Bidding Document format.

(ii) While all of the project entities have a proven record for managing the implementation of works similar to those under the project, recruiting and retaining skilled staff has been a problem because of supply constraints, funding probleims, and less competitive public-service 9

employment conditions. To ensure that existing staff are not over-extended, the incremental cost (direct and indirect) of project implementationwould be financed through the credit.

(iii) Because of both macro-economic and socio-cultural factors, operation and maintenance costs have not usually been accorded high priority in the budget. While the project does not have specific operation and maintenance credit conditions, several measures have been taken to avoid or mitigate this problem. The works are being kept simple, the technology is not new, and the entities have agreed to make special efforts to have active beneficiary acceptance of responsibility for operating and maintaining the facilities. Additionally, basic operation and maintenance manuals are included as part of the project implementation process.

4. Indications of borrower commitment and ownership: Throughout the drought, the Government has taken several steps which show its commitment and interest in overcoming the problem. In the initial stage, it sought UNDP assistance in diagnosing the main problem areas and suggesting mitigative actions. After the drought worsened, it declared a State of Emergency and activated the Civil Defense Commission to address both relief and mitigation/recovery activities. It deployed its limited stock of pumps to help irrigate areas which could be helped and it tried to renovate and dig new wells in remote communities. With UNDP and other donor/lender assistance, it also prepared a damage assessment report and sought external assistance.

The affected entities prepared detailed emergency investment plans, for the IDA and IDB, along with incremental resource needs, procurement and administrative arrangements, and proposals for applying the experience gained from ongoing sector lending in the administration of the planned project works. For the past two years, NDIB has been implementingprograms to reduce the vulnerability of the drainage system to droughts and floods. The city of Georgetown has been repairing gravity-driven drainage canals to aid during flooding emergencies.

5. Value added of IDA support in this project: With its experience in both ongoing ENSO and other emergency operations worldwide, IDA is well prepared to provide special assistance to the Government in various aspects of its recovery program. In the diagnostic phase, extensive site visits were made with the responsible sector entities to prepare the necessary damage assessment reports. Assistance was also provided to help define donor/lender coordination, establish criteria to prioritize the works and coordinate these with both ongoing and other lender/donor assistance. For the implementation phase, IDA is assisting the entities to prepare their work programs, define the administrative, procurement and financial arrangements, establish supervising and monitoring systems and indicators, and to develop and reinforce the nucleus for long-term forecasting and management of future emergencies.

E: Summary Proiect Analysis (Detailed assessments are in the project file, see Annex 8)

1. Economic (supported by Annex 4): [x] Cost-Benefit Analysis: NPV=US$1.8 million; IERR= 19% (drainage and irrigation component) Without the project, the sluices, outfalls, canals and other drainage and irrigation structures are expected to remain in their present condition or become worse, thus exacerbating the impact of both floods and droughts. Similarly, for potable water, without the project works, it is expected that there would be continued scarcity and unreliable service during droughts, both in communities with existing wells which require rehabilitation as well as in those which do not have any wells. As part of the exercise in 10 establishing priority works, least-cost analysis was used for the potable water components while cost- benefit analysis was used for the drainage and irrigation components. The Internal Economic Rate of Return for the Drainage and Irrigation components is estimated at 19%, with a NPV of US$1.79m at a discount rate of 10%.

2. Financial: Not Applicable

Fiscal impact: In terms of direct outlays, the Government has so far spent about US$2 million in ENSO related activities, primarily for emergency potable water distribution, dredging works and installation of water pumps. In addition, with about 57,000 tons of rice and about 14,000 tons of sugar production lost, the Government estimates that personal and other tax revenles dropped by about US$5.3 million. Moreover, the shortfall in rice and sugar is putting pressure on the local banks' loan portfolio, including one public sector bank. The total of the above mentioned direct outlays and revenue losses is about US$7.3 million or 3% of the 1997 Central Government budget or 1% of GDP. For the proposed project, with IDA credit terms and counterpart funding needs, the Government would incur incremental debt service obligations of about US$1 million (equivalent to about 0.4% of 1997 Government budget) over each of the next three years. The incremental gains form the stimulation in production and more tax revenues attributable to the project impact is expected to mcre than offset the incremental debt service obligations.

3. Technical: Most of the works to be financed are similar to ongoing works under IDA, IDB and other lender/donor programs where the technical standards used have been reviewed and found acceptable. Additionally, during project preparation, the technical criteria were reviewed for both the drainage and irrigation and the potable water components and these were found to be acceptable.

4. Institutional: a. Executing agencies: Responsibility for implementation of the proposed works would be through the NDIB and HD of the MOA, GUYWA and the GS&WC of the MOH&W, and the PEU of the MOW, all with the assistance of the CTB. Each implementing entity, except the PEU and HD, would be strengthened with the incremental staff and other resources needed for implementing the project works. The entities will also be responsible (via. contractors and consultants), for all phases of implementation of their respective components, including documenting and verifying their respective expenses before sending these to the Project Coordinating Unit for payment b. Project management. A Project Coordinating Unit has been established within the CDC. It would be advised by a Steering Committee comprising the heads of the entities implementing the project. The Coordinator (with assistance from the Steering Committee and the CDC director), will be responsible for helping to resolve any implementation problems which cannot be resolved at the individual entity level. He will also be responsible for processing the payment requests of each entity and for submitting quarterly progress reports, audit reports, reimbursement requests, etc. The Periodic financial cum technical audits of the project works are being financed under the Credit. Agreement has been reached on the terms of reference for both the financial and technical audits during project preparation. It has also been agreed that the office of the Auditor General will supervise the financial audits of the project during the project life. 11

5. Social: Resettlement activities: All of the project works have been identified and many of them have preliminary designs completed. There will be no resettlement in the project areas. If it is later found that there will be need to resettle individuals or families, the Government would follow procedures acceptable to IDA, as stipulated in the Operation Manual.

6. Environmental: Environmental Category []A [x] B []C Almost all of the components of this project are aimed at improving environmental conditions and management of water resources. One of the main goals of the Drainage and Irrigation works is to reduce water waste which, in turn, would reduce salt-water intrusion caused by excessive pumping during drought periods. Most of the works in this component are rehabilitation of existing structures. The additional water control structures are an integral part of the irrigation system design and will support greater efficiency of operation of the conservancy system. None of the works proposed will entail extension of irrigation canals or construction of new reservoirs, hence there would be no resettlement needs in these areas. All of the proposed subprojects to be financed have been identified during project preparation. Any potential environmental impacts related to the rehabilitation and construction of these structures will be minimized through good construction practices. A guidance document with mitigation measures, will be included in the bidding and contract documents for construction and supervision, and it will be; enforced during construction. A list of measures to be included in this guidance document is presented in Annex 10. The potable water component will help provide safe and reliable water supply to unserved and remote areas and thus help in reducing water-related health problems. By maintaining better control of both irrigation and potable water systems and having a water storage tank in Georgetown (to store water when the pumps are off), it is also expected that there will be water to control some brush and house fires. An environmental specialist will be hired to review and supervise the implementation of mitigation measures which will form an integral part of the design and implementation plan for all works.

7. Participatory approach: a. Primary beneficiaries and other affected groups: The farmers and households which are expected to benefit from the project works have had an active role in helping to set the priorities. The Local Government entities also assisted by helping to identify and update ENSO's effect and areas of greatest needs. For the drainage and agricultural works, farmers were asked to review and comment on the proposals for improving the drainage and irrigation system. The importance of having sustainable funding for proper operation and maintenance activities was also discussed and the Ministry of Agriculture is continuing the dialogue with these groups on this topic and the need to prevent individual farmers from illegally diverting water to their lands at the expense of other farmers. During the design phase, meetings with beneficiaries took place to discuss the proposed design. During construction, an independent committee of beneficiaries will be formed to help supervise the implementation of the main project components. For the potable water component, discussions with residents, school and health administrators also took place to find ways of avoiding illegal connections, damage to the water distribution system to obtain water when the system is down, and similar problems. The responsibilities of residents and users were part of these discussions and the Government is embarking on a publicity campaign to assist in this program. b. Other key stakeholders: Millers, exporters and bankers (as sector lenders) were also consulted on the proposed drainage and irrigation works and the approach has their endorsement. Because of the large multiplier effect of rice and sugar in the economy, poor harvests have had repercussions in several related areas. For example, the National Cooperative Bank has about 37% of its loans (by value) in the agricultural sector, and about 33% of these are in arrears. Bankers are thus very interested in getting 12

project works underway to ensure improved crop protection and reduce losses to the farmers.

F: Sustainabilitv and Risks 1. Sustainability: The problem of deferred operation and maintenance outlays is already discussed above. Because of its prevalent nature and no explicit credit conditionality in the project, it is possible that many of the infrastructure works could deteriorate within a few years and expose the population to the same risks which the project is aimed at ameliorating. While this is a very real possibility, indications are that the Government is actively trying to address this problem in a number of ways in both existing sector operations as well as in ongoing dialogue with the IDA and other lenders and donors. Additionally, it is expected that with the initial efforts made to consult and get feedback from key user groups, there is a reasonable probability that, if not all, at least the maintenance issues would be addressed.

By using the entities which have traditional responsibilities for the sector work, and strengthening them with installation of stations for basic early-warning and monitoring systems, it is expected that these entities would develop and improve their ability to become more actively involved in preventative and mitigative measures and also to manage future emergency operations. Acquiring and improving such capacity would be an important tool in helping to mount quick intervention efforts when the chances of reducing losses are greatest.

2. Critical Risks (reflecting assumptions in the fourth column ofAnnex 1): Risk Risk Risk MinimizationMeasure Rating Annex 1, cell 'firomOutputs to Objective"

* That the project entities cannot implement M Detaileddesign and other preparatoryactivities. the projectworks on time because of Hiring of incrementalstaff and establishing insufficienttechnical capacity. clear proceduresfor addressingproblems.

* Inadequateinstitutional capacity within M Additionalstaff to be hired to reinforceexisting implementiveagencies. personnel.

* That procurementdelays will arise M Simplificationof process and use of special proceduresalong with detailed preparatory work to have contracts ready for bidding.

* That the post-electiondispute among the S This issue is being addressedby CARICOM politicalparties would not be resolved and other interestedparties. shortly

* That the number of local and regional M WVorksare small, relatively simpleand dispersed contractorswill be small and many contractors can do them.

Risk Rating - H (High Risk), S (Substantial Risk), M (Modest Risk), N (Negligible or Low Risk) 13

Risk Risk Risk Minimization Measure Rating Annex 1, cell ':from Components to Outputs" * That there is inadequate capacity in the M Additional incremental staff, including a implementationagencies to supervise the technical expert, have been hired to assist in effective implementation of the project implementing the project. facilities.

* That local and regional contractors do not S Contractors are being pre-qualified. The have adequate capacity to carry out the prequalification process will provide an project works. advance warning of specific gaps, giving the Govt. time to take remedial action.

* That there is inadequate community M The communities were consulted before the consultation and involvement. project components and items were selected.

Overall Risk Rating M Risk Rating - H (High Risk), S (Substantial Risk), M (Modest Risk), N (Negligible or Low Risk)

3. Possible Controversial Aspects: * That works being done are based upon unclear criteria and do not reach some needy areas. * That contract awards are based upon unclear and non-transparent criteria.

G: Main Credit Conditions 1. Effectiveness Conditions: Standard, plus legal opinion(s) concerning each subsidiary agreement. 2. Other: (a) That the Government will comply with IDA's environment and resettlement policies if such needs arise. (b) That the Government will ensure that each of the implementing entities prepare quarterly progress report which it will send to IDA. (c) That the Government will hire consultants to prepare every six months procurement performance audits for all project implementing entities. These audits will be sent to IDA within one month after the end of the corresponding semester. (d) That an environmental specialist will be hired under terms and conditions satisfactory to IDA to assist the Coordinator in supervising the environmental aspects of the project. (e) That there will be a mid-term review after 18 months of project effectiveness date. (f) That each entity will establish and maintain separate accounts and have these accounts audited by auditors acceptable to IDA. (g) That the Government will send IDA annual audited statements within 4 months of the end of the fiscal year. 14

H. Readiness for Implementation

[ ] The engineering design documents for the first year's activities for the Potable Water Service Recovery and Restoration.Program are complete and ready for the start of project implementation.

[x] Not applicable.

[ ] The procurement documents for the first year's activities are complete and ready for the start of project implementation.

[x] Not applicable.

[x] The Project Implementation Plan has been appraised and found to be realistic and of satisfactory quality.

[ The following items are lacking and are discussed under credit conditions (Section G):

1. Compliance with IDA Policies

[x] This project complies with all applicable IDA policies.

Task Team Leader: Tharoor Persaud

Se Dior:eeipziger Danny

a Country Dire salia KPalantzopoulos 15

Annex 1 GUYANA: El Ninlo Emergency Assistance Project Project Design Summary

NarrativeSummary Key PerformanceIndicators Monitoringand Evaluation CriticalAssumptions

Sector-relatedCAS Goal. * Enhanced agricultural * The CivilDefense (Goal to Bank Mission) Sustainedeconomic growth Production. Commission. * ThatEl Niflo- caused and povertyreduction. * Safe and reliablepotable * Ministryof Agriculture damagedwill have negative water servicein drought- * Ministryof Housingand impact on economicgrowth. strickenareas. Water. * That an institutional capacitywould be put in place to managefuture emergencies. ProjectDevelopment (Objectiveto Goal) Objective: * Increasein the production * CoordinatingUnit of the * Help restore the of sugar,rice and other CivilDefense * Macroeconomicstability country's agricultural foodstuffsto pre-drought Commissionquarterly * A "normal"year in terms of capacityin drought- levels over three years. reports. rainfalland temperature strickenareas through * Progressivereduction of * Drainageand Irrigation patternsin the comingyear. the reductionof the floodingincidents in the Board quarterlyreports. vulnerabilityto conservanciesand the * Hydrometeorological hydrologicextremes. City of Georgetownover Divisionquarterly reports. * Help restore safe and three years. * ProjectExecuting Unit reliable potablewater * Increasein the proportion (PEU) of the Ministryof serviceto drought- of populationwith access Public Works' quarterly affectedmarginal to reliable and safe report. urban, hinterlandand potablewater servicein * GuyanaWater Authority riverinecommunities. drought-affectedareas quarterlyreports. * Help restore flood over three years. * GeorgetownSewerage protectionin the low- and Water Commissioners lying areas of the City quarterlyreports. of Georgetown. Outputs: (Outputsto Objective) * Rehabilitatedand * Degreeto whichthe * CoordinatingUnit of the * That the works are reconstructeddrainage rehabilitatedand Civil Defense undertakento technically and irrigationsystems reconstructeddrainage Commission. adequatestandards. and improved and irrigationfacilities are * Drainageand Irrigation * Thatthere is adequate hydrometeorological implementedin Board quarterly institutionalcapacity within monitoring accordancewith the implementationreports. the project implementation implementationschedule * Hydrometeorological agenciesto implementthe and standards. Divisionquarterly project. implementationreports. * That procurementdelays * GuyanaWater Authority will be avoided. * Safe and reliable * Degreeto whichpotable quarterlyimplementation * Post-electiondispute among potablewater services waterfacilities are reports. the politicalparties is for droughtaffected implementedin * GeorgetownSewerage satisfactoryresolved. areas accordancewith their and Water Commissioners originalschedules and quarterlyimplementation standards. reports 16

* Floodprotection * Degree to whichthe flood * That the local and regional facilitiesfor the City protectionfacilities are contractorshave adequate of Georgetown. implementedin * ProjectExecuting Unit capacitiesto carryout the accordancewith the (PEU)of the Ministryof projectworks. implementationschedule PublicWorks' quarterly and standards. report Project Components/Sub- ImplementationIndicators (Componentsto Outputs) components:(see Annex 2 for project description) * Timingfor completionof Implementationprogress * Thatthere is adequate 1.Agricultural Production the pre-qualification reportsfrom: capacityin the CapacityRecovery and process. implementationagencies to RegenerationProgram * $3.96 million * CoordinatingUnit of the supervisethe effective * Drainageand * # and timing for the CiviilDefense implementationof the IrrigationSystems completionof the Commission. project facilities. = Mobile constructionand * Drainageand Irrigation * That the local and regional Pumps rehabilitationof Sluices, Board quarterly contractorshave adequate => Sluice conservancyworks, and implementationreports. capacityto carry out the Outfalls for the installationof project works. =' Sluices pumps. * That there is adequate > Conservancy communityconsultation and Structures * $0.17 million involvement. * Hydrometeorological * # of bulletinsdispatched * ProgressReports by Facilitiesand monthly Hydometeorological Dissemination - * # of workshopsand Division. Program seminarsfor farmers * GuyanaWater Authority * $1.15million quarterlyreport. 2. PotableWater Service * # and timingfor the * GeorgetownSewerage Program completionof the and Water Commissioners * PotableWater constructionof wells, and quarterlyreport. ServicesRecovery storagefacilities. => Wells * ProjectExecuting Unit => Pumps (PEIJ)of the Ministryof > Storage * $3.98 million PublicWorks' quarterly * DroughtMitigation * # and timing for the report. Measures installationof project =:> Pipes.ie PUMPS.pumps. * implementingQuarterlyreport agencies of the => Fittings

3. GeorgetownFlood * $0.62 million ProtectionRestoration * # and timing for the Prograin procurementof pipes and * GeorgetownFlood fittingsand the layingof ProtectionFacilities project pipes > Sluices => Pumps

4. ProjectCoordination * $0.32million * PCU QuarterlyProgress * Institutional * Timingand staffingof the Reports Strengthening implementation agencies. 17

Annex 2 GUYANA: El Nifio Emergency Assistance Project Project Description

1. AgriculturalProduction Capacity Recovery and RegenerationProgram

1.1 Drainage and Irrigation (US$3.96 million) The recent flood of 1996 (influenced by the last cold cycle of ENSO) and the drought of 1997/98 (influenced by the current warm phase of ENSO) have highlighted a series of weak points in the drainage and irrigation (D&I) system that supports agricultural production in the coastal area of Guyana. This system allows drainage of runoff during periods of high precipitation through a series of gravity-flow canals with outfall sluices as well as supplementary pumps located in key points. During dry periods, the existing conservancies that store water provide supply to the irrigation channels. The capability of the D&I system to respond to recent hydrometeorological disasters has been limited because of weak structures resulting from prolonged periods of low levels of maintenance. In many areas the walls of the irrigation trenches have collapsed from shrinkage and from animal traffic in search of water from receding sources. Unless these damages are repaired, the system would not be able to discharge waters during the rainy season or help in irrigation activities in the dry season. As drainage and irrigation ditches dried up, they deposited silt which clogged these waterways and immobilized sluice doors and control devices. Additionally, with the lack of flowing water, the outfalls to the ocean also silted up.

Given the possibility of flooding in 1999, increased by the predicted cold phase of ENSO (also known as La Nifia), and the recurrent droughts suffered by the region, the project will support the rehabilitation of specific structures in the D&I system, the construction of water control structures in key points to reduce water loss, and the supply of mobile pumps to serve during both in times of floods and droughts. Additionally, the project will support the incremental staff and equipment needed to implement the works of the National Drainage and Irrigation Board, the implementing agency of this component. Specific information on the type and location of the works, as well as areas benefiting and costs, are provided in annex 6 and 8 respectively of this document.

The specific components to be financed under this components will include: * Acquisition of mobile and gravel pumps * Rehabilitation of fixed pumps * Rehabilitation of sluices * Rehabilitation of conservancy structures and new small water-control structures

1.2 Strenathenina of Hydrometeorological Network (US$0.17 million) The project will support the upgrading of facilities in selected stations nationwide of the hydrometeorological network managed by the Hydrometeorological Division (HD) of the Ministry of Agriculture. This will entail the supply and installation of water level recorders, rainfall loggers, SSB's, evaporimeters and automatic weather stations. In addition, the project will support a public dissemination program aimed at improving the weekly and monthly reports, with predictions and information analysis currently generated by the network and promoting the use of the enhanced hydrometeorological data to be developed under the project. The dissemination program will utilize the school environment and would include lectures, workshops, and seminars on the usefulness of hydrometeorological forecasts. Strategies to promote the use of hydrometeorological devices in the agricultural sector regarding alerts, cropping patterns, etc. will 18 also be developed under the dissemination program, in particular those specifically related to predicted events of the warm and cold phases of ENSO.

2. Potable Water Service Recovery and Restoration Program

Background. Many marginal urban and hinterland communities depend upon rainwater, creeks and rivers as their primary potable water source. With the drought, there was no rain and the creeks and rivers either dried up or became saline from backflow of ocean water. Urban communities had to get water from tanker trucks and rural ones sought emergency supplies from back-up hand pumps, most of which are in disrepair or provide water of poor quality. Even with the wells of acceptable quality, many are prone to contamination from runoff surface water because of lack of adequate protection at ground level. The project works are aimed at addressing such deficiencies in many of the most vulnerable areas.

2.1 Recovery and Restoration Program. (US$1.15 million) Restoration of Potable Water Services in Drought Areas: This component will finance the complementary distribution and transmission facilities in the Regions to help avoid supplies with tanker trucks. The main replacement works in Georgetown will improve water supplies to consumers in the low-income area of North Ruimveldt, who are at the extreme end of the distribution systems and who do not usually receive water during drought and low flow periods. An added benefit of this component would be the replacement of the existing Asbestos/Cement Pipe in this area. Hydrogen Sulfide in the water in Georgetown tends to attack the cement in these Asbestos/Cement pipes, leaving exposed Asbestos fibers.

The specific facilities to be financed under this component will include: - 10 miles of four inch PVC pipe * 10 miles of six inch PVC pipe - Four & six inch fittings - Eight inch PVC pipes - Eight inch fittings

2.2 Drought Mitigation Measures (US$3.98 million) In the drought-vulnerable and affected areas of Regions 1,2,5,7,8 and 9, preventive potable water works such as drilling of wells and installation of water pumps, would be undertaken near schools, markets, social ifacilities such as health centers, and religious establishments. These wells and the installation of strategically located storage tanks would have a significant impact in reducing the vulnerability of the water supply networks in these areas to both the residual effects of the current drought as well as to future droughts. The wells and pumps will enable water to be available in central locations for use by the population whose surface water supplies dried up or became saline during the El Nifio induced drought. The storage facility in Charity in Region 2 is located at the mid point of the Pomeroon river which divides the upper and lower Pomeroon regions. The storage tank will facilitate the supply of riverine communities during the time it takes for the rivers to be replenished with fresh water and for future droughts. It will also improve potable water service to the stelling, market and community facilities in this central location of the Region. The ground storage tank in the City of Georgetown will provide emergency storage to help the GS&WC better meet the city's water needs during those periods of the day when water is not being pumped in the system. Apart from providing access to a more stable water supply source, it would also help fire fighters to deal with frequent fires in Georgetown where it is estimated that over 90% of the houses are made of wood and are in very close proximity to each other. 19

The specificfacilities to be financedunder this componentwill include: Wells: * Hand-dugwells * Four-inchshallow wells to 100 ft. * Six-inchwells to 250 ft. * Ten Inch Deep Wells to 900 ft.

Pumps: * Hand pumps and related facilities * Deep well submersiblepumps and relatedfacilities * HorizontalSplit casing centrifugalpump and engine * Solar pump systems * Windmillwater systems

Storage: * Storagetank of 10,000gals. capacity in Region 2 * Ground Storagetank of 500,000gals. capacity for the City of Georgetown

3. Georgetown Flood Protection Restoration Program (US$0.62 million)

Drainage in Georgetownis accomplishedby gravity flow where a system of secondary drains flow into primary drains with sluices at their outfall. With the coastland in the Georgetown area being below sea level, the drainage system is limited by tidal action. The result being that during high tides, the sluices controlling the flow of the main channels are closed to prevent the intrusion of sea water. If precipitation occurs during high tides, two pumps located at Kitty and Liliandaal are used to evacuate runoff. However, these pumps do not have the capacity to evacuate rainfall during high precipitation events and flooding occurs in several areas within the city. Areas where flooding commonly occurs include Subryanville, Kitty, Bel Air Gardens, Newtown, Campbelleville, Prashad Nagar, and Lamaha Garden, with an approximate population of 45,000.

Recently, the Ministry of Public Works through its Executing Unit has completed a series of projects involving rehabilitation of streets and cleaning up and rehabilitation of the main and secondary canals to improve drainage flow. However, if as expected, higher than normal rainfall occurs during the rainy season of 1999, the useful life of these investmentswill be significantly reduced. In order to reduce flooding in Georgetown and help protect these investments, the project will support the rehabilitation of two main sluices and the provision and installation of two supplementary pumps of 30" and 36" diameter, respectively. This incremental investment will reduce the vulnerability of the Georgetown drainage system to flooding. Specific flood protection facilities to be financed under this component are: * Sluices * Pumps

4. Project Coordination(US$0.32 million) Project Coordinationwill be establishedwithin the CDC. Given the limited resources and institutional capacity of the CDC, the Project CoordinatingUnit will receive assistance to help it in its task. hicremental professional staff including a coordinator, an accounting/financialspecialist and an environmentalspecialist as well as support staff and equipment will be provided to help the unit to function efficiently. 20

Annex 3a GUYANA: El NifnoEmergency Assistance Project Estimated Project Costs

ProjectComponent Local Foreign Total ------US $ million------1.1 Drainageand Irrigation 1.379 1.603 2.982

1.2 HydrometeorologicalStations 0.026 0.102 0.128

2.1 Recovery& Regeneration 0.086 0.775 0.862

2.2 DroughtMitigation Measures 1.380 1.612 2.993

3.0 GeorgetownFlood Protection 0.098 0.370 0.468

4.0 Project Coordination 0.108 0.132 0.240

Total WithoutContingencies 3.077 4.594 7.671

PhysicalContingencies 0.306 0.473 0.779 Price Contingencies 0.805 0.946 1.751 Total Contingencies 1.111 1.419 2.530

Total ProjectCost 4.188 6.013 10.201 21

Annex3b GUYANA: El Nifio Emergency Assistance Project Cost Estimates(US$mil)

GUYWA GS&WC Total-PW NDIB HD G'Town PCU Tot. w/o C

Wells 2.092 0.000 2.092 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.092 Pumps 0.186 0.000 0.186 0.820 0.000 0.268 0.000 1.274 Storage 0.104 0.421 0.525 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.525 Distribution,Goods 0.157 0.491 0.648 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.648 Distribution,Works 0.039 0.125 0.164 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.164 Sluice Rehabilitation,Goods 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.327 0.000 0.080 0.000 0.407 Sluice Rehabilitation,Works 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.490 0.000 0.120 0.000 0.610

ConservationRehab. 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.201 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.201

Other Goods 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.110 0.000 0.050 0.160

Inst. Strength. 0.140 0.100 0.240 0.144 0.000 0.000 0.189 0.573

Dissemination 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.018 0.000 0.000 0.018

TotalWithout Contingencies 2.718 1.137 3.854 2.982 0.128 0.468 0.239 7.671 Total with Contingencies 3.614 1.511 5.125 3.966 0.17 0.622 0.318 10.201 22

Annex 3c GUYANA: El Nifio Emergency Assistance Project Cost Estimates

Goods Works Consult Total

D&I 1.525 2.249 0.191 3.966

Hydromet 0.146 0.000 0.024 0.170

GUYWA 0.594 2.834 0.186 3.614

GS&WC 1.213 0.166 0.133 1.511

PEU 0.463 0.160 0.000 0.622

PCU 0.066 0.000 0.251 0.318

Total 4.007 5.408 0.786 10.201 23

Annex 4 GUYANA:El NifnoEmergency Assistance Project Cost Benefit Analysis Summary Drainage and Irrigation Component

(Indicate currency, units, and base year)

Present Value of Flows Fiscal Impact Economic Financial Analysis Analysis Taxes Subsidies Benefits 6.25 N/A N/A N/A

Costs 4.46 N/A N/A N/A

Net Benefits: 1.79 N/A N/A N/A

IRR: 19% N/A N/A N/A

The cost-benefit analysis of the Drainage and Irrigation component was done by estimating the losses avoided both in the expected floods of 1999 related to the predicted La Nifia, as well as future El Ninlo and La Nifia events. The following are the main assumptions of the cost-benefit analysis:

1. With respect to expected damages caused by droughts related to future El Ninlo events, it was assumed that: e The losses that the D&I component will help to avoid in future El Ninio events are similar to what could have been avoided in the 97/98 event; * The warm phase of ENSO will occur every 4 years (an estimate based on the fact that in the last 30 years there have been 8 occurrences of El Nino); * Had the D&I component been operational during the 97/98 El Niflo, it is estimated that approximately 70% of the losses caused may have been avoided; * The total agricultural losses related to the 97/98 El Nifnowere US$29m. This includes only agricultural losses (sugar, rice, and other crops), but not losses of cattle, poultry, relief funds, etc., as estimates for the latter are not available.

2. With respect to expected damages caused by floods related to future La Nifia events, it was assumed that: * Losses avoided in future La Nifia events are similar to what could have been avoided in the 96 event; * The cold phase of ENSO will occur every 6 years (in the last 30 years there have been 5 occurrences); * Had the D&I component been operational during the 96 La Nifia, it is estimated that approximately 85% of the losses caused may have been avoided; * The total agricultural losses related to the 96 La Nifia were US$9.74m.

3. Apart from the specific losses related to the occurrences of El Niflo and La Nifia, the D&I component will reduce the vulnerability of the D&I system to regular droughts and floods that occur twice a year. 24

It is conservativelyassumed that the losses avoided in non-ENSOyears are about 5% of those caused by ENSO-relatedfloods and droughts.

4. A ratio of 10% of net revenues/agriculturalincome is assumed.

5. Investmentcosts and operationand maintenancecosts were estimatedbased on the preliminary designs and specifications.

Based on the above assumptions,the NPV of the expectedbenefits (directlyrelated to the losses avoided) result in US$6.25m,while the NPV of the capital and O&MIcosts is estimated at US$4.46m,for an NPV of the net benefits of US$1.79m.

Severalsensitivity analyses were performedon the assumptionsabove to analyzethe effect on the NPV of net benefitsand the IRR. For example,if the level of protectionprovided by the D&I component(or as a surrogatevariable, the damagesrelated to ENSO)changed, the followingtable illustratesthe results on the cost-benefit analysis(for La Nifia). Similarresults are obtainedfor El Niflo.

Percent of yearly losses avoidedduring La Nina with proposed investment.

% Losses Avoided NPV IRR 30 0.78 14 50 1.15 16 75 1.52 18 85 1.79 19 100 2.06 21 25

Annex 5 GUYANA: El Nino Emergency Assistance Project Procurement and Disbursement Arrangements

Procurement

The Borrower will follow the Procurement Guidelines under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits, January 1995, Revised January and August 1996 and September1997, for the procurementof goods and works; and the Guidelines for Selection and Employmentof Consultants,January 1997, Revised September 1997. The procurement arrangements are explained below and summarized in Table A. Table B summarizesthe Prior Review by InternationalDevelopment Agency (IDA), and Table C presents the allocationof credit proceeds.

General: The bidding and shoppingprocedures under the project will be carried out by the respective participating agencies [Project Executing Unit (PEU) of the MOW, Georgetown Sewage & Water Company (GS&WC), Guyana Water Authority (GUYWA) of the MOH&W, National Drainage and IrrigationBoard NDIB), and the HydrometeorologicalDivision of the MOA]. The prequalificationof civil works contractorswill be carried out by the Central Tender Board (CTB). The Governmentof Guyana (GOG) requested that the domesticpreference for goods and works be included in the Credit Agreement. The Project CoordinatingUnit (PCU) will work with the other entities to prepare an annual procurementplan, and will hire procurementauditors from time to time to ensure that the participating agenciesadhere to the agreed procurementprocedures.

Civil and ElectromechanicalWorks: The InternationalCompetitive Bidding (ICB) procedures will be used for the procurementof: (a) larger works estimatedto cost US$500,000or more individually;and (b) packagesof smallerworks, estimatedto cost US$500,000or more, procured on the basis of "slice and package" bidding. In the latter case, the bid preparation time may be reduced to 30 days on an exceptionalbasis. The packageswill be preparedby each agency on the basis of the followingpriorities: (a) state of preparationof the designs and bidding documents;(b) nature of the works; (c) geographical proximity; and (d) declared emergency regions. These works will be procured following an ICB prequalificationfor the whole project during annual update. Repair, rehabilitationand constructionof new hydraulic facilities - includingwater wells - comprisingcivil works and mechanical and electrical workswould be consideredas electromechanicalworks.

The Prequalificationprocedures will be carried out by the CTB and will result on contractorsqualified under several ranges of capacity and specialization. The prequalifiedbidders will have to demonstrate that they meet the available capacity and financial position in each bidding through a post-qualification procedure. The four participatingagencies will use the common prequalificationfor the procurementof the ICB work.

The National CompetitiveBidding (NCB) procedureswill be carried out for small and scatteredworks, for which the detailed designs and bills of quantities will not be ready at the time of preparationof the bidding packages under ICB procedures,consisting of rehabilitationof sluices and doors, embankments and structures. These works, estimatedto cost individuallyless than US$500,000,will be procuredusing NCB procedures acceptable to the IDA, up to an aggregate amount of US$1.6 million. The bid preparationtime will be no less than 21 days. 26

The Quotations for Civil Works procedures will be used for smaller repairs and works, including hand- dug wells, which are scattered, unlikely to attract open competition and costing individuallyless than US$20,000,will be procuredthrough written quotationsfrom at least three qualifiedcontractors, up to an aggregate amount of US$400,000. These quotationswill be obtained from prequalified contractorsor reputable,local contractorsoperating in the region,on the basis of written quotationssubmitted within 10 days and using standardforms and proceduresas reflected in an operationalmanual acceptable to IDA.

Goods: Given the emergencynature of the project, pumps and ancillary electromechanicalequipment, and other goods, in packages costing US$75,000 or more will be procured on the basis of ICB procedures. Similar items in packages costing individualllyless than US$75,000, up to an aggregate amount of US$500,000,may be procured through internationalshopping procedures, satisfying certain formalities,inter alia, using standard request forms, establishinga deadline for receivingoffers, as called for in the operationalmanual.

Spare parts, including gaskets, belts and movable parts of electromechanicalequipment of existing pumping installation, sluice gates and doors, along with the installation and commissioningof the facilities, in packages costing less than US$10,000 up to an aggregate amount of US$100,000may be procureddirectly from the original manufacturersor suppliers.

Consultancy Services: Consulting firms for the review of technical designs, preparation of bidding documents, and supervision of works will be hired by the NDIB using Quality-Cost-Based-Selection (QCBS) procedures. If the assignment is estimated to cost less than US$50,000,the short list may compriseonly of nationalfirms.

Auditing firms and procurement auditing firms will be hired using Least-Cost-Selection(LCS) procedures.

A consultingfirm for the preparationof financial and accounting informationsystem, costing less than US$50,000,may be procuredon a sole source basis.

Individualexperts on short-termassignments, in contractstotaling less than US$75,000in the aggregate, will be selected on the basis of their qualifications.

Prior Review: All ICB of goods and works and all Prequalificationprocedures will require prior review by IDA. The first two NCB contractswill require prior review by IDA each year. The first two contracts for civil and electromechanicalworks procured by each agency each year following the procedure of written quotationswill be subject to prior review. The first two contracts for goods procured through shoppingprocedures for each agency each year will require prior review by IDA. Direct contractingof spare parts and ancillary electromechanicalequipment will require prior review by IDA. All QCBS procedures involving contracts costing US$50,000or more will require prior review. All individual consultantshired for contract services costing US$15,000or more will require prior review by IDA. All sole sourcedcontracts will require priorreview by IDA. 27

Disbursement

Annex 5, Table A: Project Costs by Procurement Arrangements (US$ million)

Category Procurement Method' ICB NCB Other Total

Civil & Electromechanical 4.2 2.64 0.56 7.4 Works (4.2) (1.6) (0.4)2 (6.2)

Goods 1.6 - 0.6 2.2 (1.6) (0.6)3 (2.2)

Consultants - - 0.6 0.6 (0.6)4 (0.6)

Total 5.8 2.64 1.76 10.2 Total IDA (5.8) (1.6) (1.6) (9.0)

IFigures in parenthesisare the amountsto be financedby the IDAcredit. 2 Three writtenquotations from qualifiedcontractors works less than US$20,000,and hand-dugwells. 3International shoppingup to US$500,000,and directcontracting up to US$100,000.

4 QCBS, one sole sourceup to US$50,000,and individualsup to US$100,000. 28

Annex 5, Table Al: ConsultantSielection Arrangements (US$ thousands)

ConsultingServices QCBS LCS Sole Source Other

Engineering and Supervision Firms 450

Audit and Procurement Audit Firms 100

Information System 50

Individuals 75

Note: QCBS= Quality- and Cost-BasedSelection QBS = Quality-based Selection SFB = Selectionunder a FixedBudget LCS = Least-Cost Selection CQ = SelectionBased on Consu:ltants'Qualifications Other = Selectionof individualconsultants (per SectionV of Consultants Guidelines), CommercialPractices, etc. 29

Annex 5, Table B: Thresholdsfor ProcurementMethods and Prior Review (US$ million)

Category ProcurementMethod Prior Review EstimatedValue

Civil Works ICB > US$500,000 All US$4.2 NCB > US$20,000 First two per agency/year US$0.5 Three Quotations First two per agency/year US$0.1

Goods ICB > US$75,000 All US$1.6 Direct Contracting All US$0.1 Shopping First two per agency/year US$0.1

Consultants QCBS All US$0.6 (Total) Least Cost All Sole Source All Individuals > US$15,000 All

Prequalification All 30

Annex5, Table C: Allocationof CreditProceeds Expenditure Category Amount in US$ Amount in SDR Financing Percentage million million

Civil Works 4.0 3.02 80%

Goods 3.5 2.64 100% Foreign 85% Local Consulting Services 0.5 0.38 100%

Unallocated 1.0 0.76

Total 9.0 6.8

Use of statements of expenses (SOEs):

SOEswill be submittedfor (a) all civil works contracts less than US$500,000each; (b) all goods contracts less than US$ 50,000; (c) all individual consultant contracts less than US$ 10,000;and (d) all consultingfirm contractsless than US$ 25,000

Special account:

The Governmentwill establisha SpecialAccount (SA) throughthe Bank of Guyana in a commercial bank. Up to US$ 1.5 million can be advanced from the Credit into the SA to facilitate disbursementfor the purpose of the project. The initial deposit would be limited to US$ 1.0 million until the aggregatedisbursed amount has reached US$ 1.5 million. The SA will be replenishedby submittingwithdrawal applications to IDA on a monthlybasis.

Retroactive Financing:

Up to about US$1 million would be availablefor retroactivefinancing for urgent works and goods that have been procuredin accordancewith IDA ProcurementGuidelines. This portion of the credit would be used to reimbursethe Governmentfor eligible expendituresmade after the declarationof the emergency(March 26, 1998), in accordancewith World Bank operationalpolicies. 31

Annex 6 GUYANA: El NifnoEmergency Assistance Project Implementation Plan

Project ITEM Q1 Q2 Q4 Q6 Q8 Q10 Q12 Component Drainage and Irrigation 1.1 Seven 40-cusec mobile pumps B Con 1.1 No. R.C structure at Red Lock BN D B Con 1.1 Rehabilitation of Golden Fleece Sluice. B Con 1.1 Rehabilitation of Uno Creek Spill Weir. BN D B Con 1.1 Rehabilitation of Dawa Pump. B Con I 1.1 Rehabilitation of the Conservancy of BN D B Con Annandale to Johanna Cecilia, embankment & structures. 1.1 Replacing gates on structures at Main Canal - B Con 50 gates 1.1 1 No. 12" gravel pump B Con 1.1 Rehabilitation of Sluice at Endeavour, BN D Con _Leguan Island 1.1 Rehabilitation of seven Sea Sluices BN D Con 1.1 Rehabilitation works and stabilizing of BN D B Con pumping station outlet at Plaisance 1.1 Improved drainage through installation of a BN D Con new structure through the dam of Nabacilis backlands 1.1 [Rehabilitation of River Sluice at Supply ! BN D Con 1.1 Rehabilitationof Mora PointPump station | D Con 1.1 Rehabilitation of Sluices at . BN D Con 1.1 2 No. 12" gravel pumps B Con 1.1 Rehabilitation of six sluices B Con 1.1 Replacing intake structures on Seaford Canal BN D B Con North and South in the # 52/74 area.

Hydrometeorological Network Strengthening 1.2 Hydrometeorological equipment B Con 1.2 Dissemination Program D Con

Recovery and Restoration Program 2.1 Six Inch Pipes 1Omi SP B 2.1 FourInch Pipes 10mi SP B 2.1 Fittings SP B D - design; B - bid; BN - bid components; Con - contract; Comp - completion; SP - specifications 32

Annex 6 GUYANA: El Nifio Emergency Assistance Project Implementation Plan

Project Item Q1 Q2 Q4 Q6 Q8 Q1O Q12 Comp _ Drought Mitigation

Measures _ . 2.2 Ten - inch Wells ._ 2.2 De Hoop D B Con Con Comp _ 2.2 Champayne D B Con Con Comp 2.2 Little Baibo D B Con Con Comp 2.2 No. 10 Village D B Con Con Comp

2.2 Six-Inch Wells 2.2 St. John D B Con Comp 2.2 Liberty D B Con Comp 2.2 Friendship r D__D B Con Comp 2.2 Lilydale D B Con Comp 2.2 Marlborough D B Con Comp 2.2 Martindale D B Con Comp 2.2 Mora. Waka oa D B Con Comp 2.2 Yarashirima D B Con Comp 2.2 St. Lucian's Wakapoa D B Con Comp 2.2 Jacklow DI_I_ID B Con Comp 2.2 Siriki D_ B Con Comp 2.2 Abram's Creek __ T D B Con Comp 2.2 D_ B Con Comp 2.2 St. Monica _D B Con Comp 2.2 Karawab D B Con Comp 2.2 Hackney D B Con Comp 2.2 Hogg Island D B Con Comp 2.2 Limer Sands D B Con Comp 2.2 Capoey Lake D B Con Comp

2.2 Four-Inch Wells ___ 2.2 Arau D B Con Comp 2.2 Chinawying D B Con Comp 2.2 D B Con Comp 2.2 Jawall D B Con Comp 2.2 Karran Creek D B Con Comp 2.2 Kurukutu D B Con Comp 2.2 Kaikon D B Con Comp 2.2 Kako D B ICon Comp 2.2 Kamorang D B Con Comp I D - design; B - bid; BN - bid components; Con - contract; Comp - completion; SP - specifications 33

Annex 6 GUYANA: El NinloEmergency Assistance Project Implementation Plan

Project Item Q1 Q2 Q4 Q6 Q8 Q10 Q12 Comp 2.2 72 Miles Potaro D B Con Comp 2.2 Puruima D B Con Comp 2.2 Philipai ID B Con Comp I 2.2 Waamadong D B Con Comp

2.2 Riverview D B Con Comp 2.2 Gosen D B Con Comp 2.2 Kartobo D B Con Comp 2.2 Bartaria D B Con Comp 2.2 KoawIsland D B Con Comp 2.2 Makouria D B Con Comp 2.2 Lanaballi D B Con Comp 2.2 Agatash D B Con Comp 2.2 Dawa D B Con Comp 2.2 Akwini D B Con Comp * I I ~~~~~~~~~~~I I 2.2 Kato D B Con Comp 2.2 Kurukubaru D B Con Comp 2.2 D B Con Comp 2.2 Taruka B Con Comp 2.2 Monkey Mountain D B Con Comp 2.2 Tuseneng D B Con Comp 2.2 Kanapang D B Con Comp 2.2 Itabac D B Con Comp 2.2 Oriduik D B Con Comp 2.2 Kamana D B Con Comp 2.2 Kopinang D B Con Comp 2.2 Maikwak D B Con Comp 2.2 Waipa D B Con Comp 2.2 Kaibarupai D B Con Comp 2.2 Chenapau D B Con Comp 2.2 Karisparu D B Con Comp

2.2 HandDug Wells 2.2 Aishalon D B Con Comp 2.2 Karaudanawa D B Con Comp 2.2 I D B Con Comp 2.2 Awaranawa D B Con Comp D - design; B - bid; BN - bid components; Con - contract; Comp - completion; SP - specifications 34

Annex 6 GUYANA: El Nifio Emergency Assistance Project Implementation Plani

Project Item Q1 Q2 Q4 Q6 Q8 Q10 Q12 Co m p 2.2 Maruranau D B Con Comp 2.2 Shea D B Con Comp 2.2 Rupunau D B Con Comp 2.2 Sawarinau D B Con Comp 2.2 Katoonarib D B Con Comp 2.2 Sand Creek D B Con Comp 2.2 Shullinab D B Con Comp 2.2 Maruranau D B Con Comp 2.2 Shea D B Con Comp 2.2 Rupunau D B Con Comp 2.2 Sawarinau D B Con Comp 2.2 Katoonarib D B_Con Comp 2.2 Sand Creek D B Con Comp 2.2 Shullinab D B Con Comp 2.2 Potarinau D B Con Comp 2.2 Pariwarunau D B Con Comp 2.2 D B Con Comp 2.2 Haiwa D B Con Comp 2.2 Kai KumBay D B Con Comp 2.2 Annai D B Con Comp 2.2 Nappi D B Con Comp 2.2 Parishara ____|D B Con Comp

2.2 == _=_ _D B Con Comp 2.2 Toka D B Con Comp 2.2 Quatata D B Con Comp

2.2 Hand Dug & Four Inch Wells 2.2 Culvert City D B Con Comp 2.2 Hokwa D B Con Comp 2.2 Moco Moco D B Con Comp 2.2 Kumo . D B Con Comp 2.2 Quarie D B Con Comp 2.2 Meriwau D B Con Comp 2.2 Small Sand Creek D B Con Comp 2.2 Baitoon =D B Con Comp 2.2 D B Con Comp 2.2 St. Agnatius D B Con comp 2.2 Karasabi D B Con Comp D - design; B - bid; BN - bid components; Con - contract; Comp - completion; SP - specifications 35

Annex 6 GUYANA: El Nifio Emergency Assistance Project Implementation Plan

Project Item Q1 Q2 Q4 Q6 Q8 Q10 Q12 Comp 2.2 D B Con Comp 2.2 Tiger Pond D B Con Comp 2.2 Pai Pang D B Con Comp 2.2 Taushida D B Con Comp 2.2 Yurong-Peru D B Con Comp

2.2 Solar Systems 2.2 D B Con Comp 2.2 Karasabi D B Con Comp

2.2 Windmill Systems 2.2 Achiwib D B Con Comp 2.2 Tiger Pond D B Con Comp 2.2 Kumo D B Con Comp 2.2 St Agnatius D B Con Comp 2.2 Quarie D B Con Comp 2.2 Small Sand Creek D B Con Comp

2.2 Hand Pumps SP B 2.2 Submersible Pumps _ SP B 2.2 Centrifugal Pumps SP B 2.2 Solar Pumps SP B . 2.2 Generator Set SP B

2.2 Storage Tanks 2.2 Charity SP B Con Comp 2.2 North Rumvelt SP B Con Comp =-

Georgetown Flood Protection Restoration Program 3 Pumping stations at Kitty and BN D Con Liliendaal 3 Sluice structures at Kingston BN D Con

4 Project Coordination Comp 36

Annex 7 GUYANA: El Nifno Emergency Assistance Project Performance Indicators

Project Component 1999 2000 2001 I AgriculturalProd. Cap. RecoveryRegeneration. Program 1.1 Drainage and Irrigation Numberof sluices rehabilitated 11 6 Numberof structuresand rehabilitationworks in 2 3 conservancies Numberof pumps(mobile, gravel, and stationary) 10 3 rehabilitatedand operational 1.2 Strengtheningof HydrometeorologicalNetwork Stations Upgraded 6 6 AutomaticWeather StationsInstalled 3 6 DisseminationProgram - Seminars/Workshops 4 4

2 Potable Water ServiceRecovery Program 2.1 Recovery and RestorationProgram Length of four inch pipes laid (miles) 3 7 Length of six inch pipes laid (miles) 3 7 2.2 Drought MitigationMeasures Hand dugwells constructed 15 15 20 Four inch shallowwells constructed 15 35 Six-inchwells constructed 14 14 Ten-inchwells constructed 4 Hand pumpsinstalled 45 55 Solar Systemsconstructed 1 1 Wind mill Systemsconstructed 3 3 StorageTank 1 1

3. GeorgetownFlood ProtectionRestoration Program SluicesRehabilitated 2 PumpsInstalled 2 37

Annex 8 GUYANA: El NifnoEmergency Assistance Project El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its Influence on Guyana's Precipitation

1. The ENSO Phenomenon

For hundreds of years (the first available record dates 1567), fishermen along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador have noticed, at periodic intervals, the appearance of warm waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean and a related decrease in fish availability. As the phenomenon typically becomes apparent around Christmas, the phenomenon received the name "El Nino" (Christ Child or the Little Boy).

During the 1920s, the head of the Indian Meteorological Service recognized associations between rainfall patterns in South America, change in ocean temperatures, and atmospheric pressure changes measured at stations in Tahiti and Darwin (Australia). A pressure rise in the east is typically accompanied by a decrease in the west, and vice-versa. This phenomenon was named the Southern Oscillation.

In the late 1960s, the relation between the warm waters of El Ninio and the pressure variance of the Southern Oscillation was recognized, leading to the full naming of the phenomenon as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

The ENSO phenomenon is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific Ocean that has important consequences for weather around the globe. ENSO is the dominant source of variability in the climate system on inter-annual to decade time scales. ENSO has a warm phase (El Nino) and a cold phase (La Ninia - the Little Girl). Global climate anomalies associated with La Ninia tend to be opposite of El Nifno. For example, El Nifio events results in abnormally dry conditions over northeast Brazil, with flooding during La Nifia events. The ocean-atmosphere system oscillates between warm to neutral to cold phases with a natural periodicity of roughly 3-4 years.

2. Monitoring the ENSO Phenomenon

Every El Nifo and La Nifia event is somewhat different in magnitude, duration, and evolution. Magnitude can be determined with different indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), mentioned above. Another indicator is the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SST) that measures the difference between the actual temperature and the seasonal average for different regions of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Two regions commonly used for measuring the SST are the Ninio-3 that extends from 150W to 90W and 5N to 5S, and the Nifio-3.4 that corresponds to 170W to 120W. Figure 1 shows the SST anomalies for the Nifio-3.4 region between 1950 and 1998. The anomalies in Figure 1 are the difference between the measured temperature values and the average seasonal value for the 1950- 1993 reference period. Positive values in Figure 1 correspond to warm phases of the ENSO phenomenon while negative values correspond to cold phases. El Niflo years are those with significant and continued positive SST anomalies. La Nifia years correspond to the opposite situation. Table A.7.1 presents the El Nifno and La Ninia events of this century. Warm and cold episodes generally last into the winter and spring of the following year (i.e., 1982 denotes the 1982/1983 warm episode). 38

Table A8.1 El Nifio and La Nifia Events

El NifloYears La NifiaYears (warmphase ENSO) (coldphase ENSO) 1902 1905 1911 1914 1918 1923 1904 1908 1910 1916 1924 1928 1925 1930 1932 1939 1941 1951 1938 1950 1955 1964 1970 1973 1953 1957 1965 1969 1972 1976 1975 1988 1995 1982 1986 1991 1994 1997

The Climate Diagnostics Center of NOAA uses a multivariate index to monitor ENSO, using a combination of sea-level pressure, surface wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, and total cloudiness fraction of the sky over the tropical Pacific Ocean, in an attempt to integrate multiple variables associated with the phenomenon. Figure 2 shows the standardized departure of the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) for the period 1950-1998. Again, positive values of the MEI represent the warm ENSO phase. As can be observed in Figures 1 and 2, El Nifio events usually occur approximately every two to seven years, and are generally followed by La Ninla events, although there is irregularity in the oscillation. For example, the period 1990-95 has been unusually warm.

3. The 1997/1998El Nifio Event

By some accounts the 1997/98 El Nifio event is the strongest since extensive sea surface temperature observations of the tropical Pacific began in the 50's. Figure 3 presents the value of the MEI for the six strongest El Nifno events, along with the evolution of the current El Niflo. As can be observed in the figure, each El Niflo has a different evolution; some (like 57/58, 65/66, and 72/73) had rapid rising and standardized peaks before the end of the first year, while others (82/83, 86/87 and 91/92) took longer to mature and had their peaks in the spring of the second year. The 97/98 event has shown two peaks, the first one in July/August 97 and the second in February/M[arch 98, both of which have been the largest recorded with the only exception being the 82/83 event.

4. Influence of El Nino/La Nifia Events on Precipitation in Guyana

The ENSO phenomenon is the most important source of global climate anomalies in the inter- annual to decade range, especially in the tropics. However, it is important to note that ENSO is only one among many factors that influence climate in a particular region. The variability in the ENSO cycle, as illustrated in Figure 3, and the superposition of its influence on the annual cycle of dry and rainy seasons in Guyana, result in different levels of effects. Nevertheless, some trends have been clearly and consistently identified in the historical records between the warm and cold phases of ENSO and anomalies in precipitation and temperature in Guyana. Figures 4 and 5 present at a global scale the effects of warm and cold ENSO events.

Rainfall in Guyana is bi-modal, the wet seasons occur from mid-April to mid-August and mid- November to mid-January. Research using 66 years oif rainfall data in Georgetown indicates that precipitation is below average during El Nino years, while the opposite occurs during La Nifia years. The effective period of influence of El Nifno has been found to be Sep(0)-Mar(+) (i.e., from September of El Nifno year to March of the following year), while for La Niina it is Nov(0)-Mar(+). Table A.8.2 presents the median values of precipitation for the effective periods of the warm and cold phases of ENSO and compares them with the median value for non-ENSO years]. 39

Table A8.2 ENSO and Non-ENSO Medians for 3-Month Composites Of Georgetown Rainfall (mm)

ENSO Phase EffectivePeriod MedianValue of Rainfall MedianValue of Rainfall ENSO Years non-ENSOYears Warm(El Niflo) Sep(0)-Mar(+) 776.4 1039.7 Cold (La Nifla) Nov(0)-Mar(+) 1090.3 849.7

An analysis of precipitation data in Georgetown confirms the trend shown in Figures 4 and 5. Figure 6 presents the standardized anomaly of annual precipitation (percentage difference between observed and average) for El Nifio and La Nina years listed in Table A.8. 1.

The most recent hydrologic disasters in Guyana appear to have been influenced by the ENSO phenomenon. The floods in 1996 that caused significant damage in agricultural production, as described in more detail in the main text of this document, may have been influenced by the 95/96 La Ninla event. The 97/98 drought in Guyana has been clearly influenced by the current El Nifio. Figure 7 presents the average rainfall and the current levels of precipitation for the period July 97-March 98 for the five main agricultural regions of the country.

Based on the ENSO forecasts, the high possibility of a drought for the 97/98 period was raised by the Hydrometeorological Service of the Ministry of Agriculture in its report of August 1997 and by the National Drainage and Irrigation Board in November 1997. A Regional Climate Outlook Forum for the Northern South America region took place in Fortaleza in January 20, 1998. The consensus climate guidance indicated a significant (45%) probability of below-normal rainfall in the February/May dry season in Guyana, as shown in Figure 8. The next section presents the current forecasts for the evolution of the ENSO phenomenon in the coming months.

5. CurrentPredictions of ENSO Evolution for 1998/1999

There are various research groups and modules that have developed statistical and dynamic forecast models for the study of the ENSO phenomenon and its current development. These forecasts are frequently updated and the following summary presents the estimates as of April 1998.

The forecast of the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Weather Service calls for warm ENSO conditions through May-June 1998 and then a gradual weakening with the approach of summer. Thereafter there is some disagreement among the models used by the Center (statistical models such as CA and CCA and coupled-atmosphere models such as NCEP). Figure 9 illustrates the difference. The consolidated forecast of the Center calls for a slow decrease to a zero or below zero anomaly by late 1998. The forecast is cautious in the prediction of La Nifia event and indicates that the expected accuracy of the SST forecast will greatly improve as the so-called "spring barrier" in predictability is passed. The forecast developed by researchers at the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies indicates a return to near-normal conditions in the late spring-early summer of 1998. During the fall of 1998 temperatures continue to cool and the cold anomaly peak will be seen during the winter of 98/99 with strong La Nifia conditions persisting through the winter of 1999, as shown in Figure 11.

The International Research Institute forecast for SST anomaly indicates a decrease of warm ENSO conditions over the summer evolving towards relatively strong cold conditions by the beginning of 40

1999, as shown in Figure 12. The figure presents a blended forecast of SST anomalies for the tropical Pacific generatedby two models (the NCEP coupledGCM and the CrippsHybrid CoupledModel).

Although the results shown above are part of research efforts aimed at understanding and modelingthe ENSOphenomenon, the forecasts show a tendencytowards a potentiallystrong cold ENSO conditionin 1999. Coupledand statisticalmodels are at the momentunanimous in suggestingmoderately to substantiallybelow normal SSTs in the eastern Pacific by fall 1998, with many suggestingfurther cooling during subsequentmonths, i.e., near-LaNifia to full-La Nifia conditions. The evolution of the warm phase needs to be followed closely over the coming months in order to assess the likelihoodof a strong cold phase of ENSOwith its related effects on the precipitationof Guyana. t5G1 gb51 L81 OW6 SeBI tEI 65~1 ZT5p l55I 0,18S

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uoi.l .t01!ou . .xoj(iss) . .u.uouVxnj.vzadwajL 2'pS 'aS ..... 42

Figure 2 Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) Standardized Departure 1950-1998 Source: Climate Diagnostics Center, NOAA-CIRES

, MULTIVARIATEENSO INDEX -...... °2- ...... _ ._. _...... _. _ ......

o 1 n-1 r ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~...s---......

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Figure 3 M{ultivariate ENSO 3:ndex(MEI) I-.~ ~~ ~ ~ Strongest~ ~ ~Historic ~ ~El Ninio~ ~ Events ~ ~ ~ ~~1 Source: Climate Diagnostics C'enter, NOAA-CIRES 0

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vvoK ,aiua3uot.13paia asmullommJoS os.Naio} stL,a txeujuMo spaj a leqolf) Vea.nSgi. 44

Figure 5 Global Effects of Cold Phase of ENSO Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA

COLD EPISODE RELATIONSHIPS DECEIBER - FEBRUARY

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COLD EPISODE RELATIONSHIPS JUNE -AUGUST

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ax \;g < ' ^ % l ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~...... < , w.n s }.,^~~~~~~~ s wos|*vZ| oos...... *o..... < w-~~ ~ ~~ ~...... Figure 6 Standardized Anomaly of Annual Precipitation El Niio and La Niiin Years Source: Kemp Simon, HydrometeorologicalDepartment, Ministry of Agriculture, Guyana

160

om 140

t 0120 . l * El Ninoyears too ~~~~~~(WarmPhase) Z; s~~~~~~~~La Nina Years g1 s ColdPhase)

a. 60

40 _ , , . . 19351945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 Year

Figure 7 Normal (average) and Actual Montlily Precipitation June 1997-February 1998; Regions 2, 4 and 6, Guyana Source: Ilydrometeorological Departineitt, Giiyai a

250 - ".S4 -- x ~~~~~~~~~~~~S 0 .. _ .. ZEO . ~~~~~120 F,...... ff ...Ad3 I 10 IN~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o e0 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~* ------t t'| j ] % 2 } i | | 46 Figure 8 Consensus Climate Guidance Northern South America Regional Climate Outlook Forum Fortaleza, Brazil, January 1998 Source: International Research Institute for Climate Prediction

February-May 1998

1o'N -

37, -q§

40' 1' v

aa~~~~~~~~S~a_;2_ _ X 3t~1ueanmIuinad l.

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Figure 9 SST Consolidation Forecast (Apr/98) Standardized Anomaly for Niiio-3.4 Region Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA 7i 3 2

0 -3 ------1------

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1998 Target Month 1999 M .4 . 47

Figure 10 Coupled Ocean-Model Forecast (May/98) SST Anomaly for Nifio-3 Region Source: Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia

2

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Ver..c_ at T. T

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Figure 12 SST ForecastTropical Pacific (Mar/98) Source:International Research Institute for ClimatePrediction

JJA 1998 (6 month lead) Mcde 2 Marc:h 1998 TWOBLEND SST Anomaly (C) JJJA1998

E w

Ea -- gtu,t

4DE SOE SE 1ME 120E 140E160C: 180 16w 14*0 12" 100W

SON 1998 (9 month lead) Mcde 2 Marc-h 1998 TWOBLEND SST Anomaly (C) SCN19S98

E r-

41E SOE StE 1I E 121E14CE 160E 180 IBOWV14av 120w 100W

DjF 1992 (12 month lecd) Mcde 2 Mcrch 1998 TWOBLEND SST Anomaly (C) DJF1999

40E 6OE ME 1C6E12E 140E1SGE: 18O 16aw144V 120wIOOw 49

Annex 9 GUYANA: El Nifio Emergency Assistance Project Areas Benefiting From Project Works

Component1 Pumps (mobile,gravel, and rehabilitation) Mobile Pumps Region Use in DroughtConditions ExpectedLocation in Flooding Conditions ExpectedLocation Use 2 Mc Nabb, Lima To providesupplemental water from the main Three-Friends, Westbury Affiance/Columbia canalto the distributariesfor use by rice and cash crop farmers 3 Warima To providesupplemental water from the Bonasika Windsor Forest Riverto the conservancy 4 Lama To providesupplemental water from LamaCreek Good Hope at low tide to the EastDemerara Water Conservancy 5 Fort Wellington To providesupplemental water from irrigation Onverwagt canalto FD 13 irrigationcanal 6 Black Bush, Torani To supplementthe irrigationsupply in the Black Sea-Well, Head Bush area,and to supplementflow in Canjie Borlan/Eversham Creekfrom the BerbiceRiver at low tides

Rehabilitation ProjectComponent Area Benefited Acreage Type of Agricultural Activity Region2 Dawapump Pomeroon 44,000 Rice and ground provision Region 4 Plaisance pumping Ogle to Plaisance 500 Sugar cane and station residential Region 5 pump station Areas along the |300 Rice and cash crops river 50

Component 1 (Sluice rehabilitation) ProjectComponent Area Benefited, Acreage Type of Agricultural I I I Activity Region2 GoldenFleece Sluice JohannaCecilia to 8,000 | Rice Perseverence l Region 3 Endeavoursluice at Amsterdamto Blenheim 500 Riceand cash crops Leguan Island Region4 Rehabilitationof seven Uryheidto Golden 3,500 (similararea for Sugar cane and sea sluices Grove eachsluice) residentialareas Supplysluice | Brickeryto Support 250 Citrus Region 5 GovernorLight sluice Areas alongthe 300 Riceand cash crops Mahaiconyriver l Region 6 CWC#1sluice CrabwoodCreek 2,500 Rice and ground provision #43, Eversham,and Black Bush Polder 27,000 Rice and cash crops Adventuresluices Borlan sluice Fyrishto Borlan 1,200 Sugarcane and ground provisions Lonsdalesluice Rotterdamto Brothers 950 Rice and cash crops

Component 1 (Conservancy water control structures rehabilitation and deficiency reduction' ProjectComponent Area Benefited(1) A Acreage 1 Type of Agricultural { I j______A l______ctivity Region2 Red Lock control From WaltonHall to 27,000 Rice structure TaymontManor (areas servedby Manikuru Canal) Uno Creekspill weir Tapakunascheme 6,000 Rice Rehabilitationof Annandaleto Johanna 8,000 Rice conservancy Cecilia Gateson structuresat WaltonHall to Taymont 27,000 Rice main canal Manor Region4 Nabacilisstructure Nabacilis 300 Cash crops Region6 Intakestructures on #52 to #74 l18,500 Rice SeafordCanal N&S (1) Someof thebenefited areas (especially in regions2 and6 mayoverlap between the varioussubcomponents)

Project Component 1 Total Acreage Region 2 120,000 Region 3 500 Region 4 4,550 Region 5 600 Region 6 50,150 175,800 51

Component1- Gravelpumps

REGION Plan of maintenancedredging of existing outfall channels

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Region3 Blankenburg Stryk-en-Heuvel Endeavour La Jalousie WindsorForest La Retraite Doom Haag Vergenogen Doom Haag Region6 Adventure Seawell #43 #43 CWC#l Whim Eversham CWC#2 Bloomfield Whim CWC#3 Borlan Bloomfield Adventure Adventure Borlan Eversham Eversham

Component2.1 Potable Water Service Recoveryand Restoration-- Beneficiaries DROUGHTMITIGATION WORKS POPULATION BENEFITED

Four inch shallow wells (1-22) & distribution systems (20-22) 9,588 Six inch wells (1-19) & overhead storage tank (20) 13,000 Ten inch wells (1-4) 3,900 Four inch wells (1-13) & six wells (14-23) 4,961 Riverine areas 3,395 Four inch wells or hand dug wells 6,598 Hand dug wells (1-40) & drilled four inch wells (23-40) 21,850

TOTAL 63,292 52

Annex 10 GUYANA: El NifnoEmergency Assistance Project Environmental Mitigation Measures For Rehabilitation/Construction Subprojects

The subprojectsto be implementedas part of the El NiffoEmergency Assistance Project are rehabilitationand constructionof smallstructures (such as sluices, control doors, wells, pump support structures,etc.) The potential environmentalimpacts during construction are temporaryand can be mitigatedwith the appropriateimplementation of mitigationmeasures during construction. In order to facilitate the implementationof such measures,the followingguidance document will be providedto contractorsand supervisorsand will be enforced duringconstruction. The mitigationmeasures included do not precludethe interventionof the environmentalgovernment authority that may require additional actions.

I. The mitigationmeasures included in this guidancedocument will be mandatoryfor the contractor during project preparation,construction and completion. The supervisionof the implementationof the environmentalmitigation measures will be part of the functionsof the Project Coordinating Unit. 2. The contractorwill informthe employeesworking on the constructionsite about these mitigation measures. 3. The costs of correctiveactions neededto remediateenvironmental damages causedby the lack of complianceof these mitigationmeasures will be the responsibilityof the contractor. 4. Soon after constructionstarts and duringthe entire constructionperiod, the contractorwill keep the leaders of surroundingcommunities informed about the scope and schedule of the works. The Contractorwill also inform them about any safety issues and ways to avoid accidents. The contractorwill attend to any complaintsfrom nearby communitiesregarding damages to the environment. The contractorwill provide all necessaryinformation to the supervisorycommunity group if one is formed for the project. 5. The contractorwill minimizevegetation cutting. The wvastematerial will be disposed of in appropriateareas or burned in areas that do not present any risk of the fire spreadingor inconveniencingnearby population. The authorizedburning will be performedaway from water bodies and irrigationcanals to prevent contamination. 6. Organicsoils extracted during constructionshould be preservedadequately for its use in re- vegetationactivities after completionof works. 7. The crossing of constructionequipment through water bodiesand irrigationcanals shouldbe minimized. 8. Storageof constructionmaterials such as gravel, sand and other fine-grainedmaterials shouldbe such that removalby wind or water is minimized. The storage of these materialsshould be located away from irrigationcanals and water bodies to prevent contamination. 9. Fuel, oil, pesticides,herbicides and other hazardousmaterials should be stored in appropriate containersclearly labeled. The storage location shouldbe away form water bodiesand irrigation canals. Accidental spills of these materials shouldbe promptlycleaned up. 10. Used oil, plastics, tires, and other hazardouswastes shouldnot be burned or disposed in sites where it may affect water bodies, irrigationcanal or vegetation. 11. The contractorshould providecontainers for collectionof solid and liquidwaste generatedduring construction. These wastes should be periodicallyremoved from the constructionarea to sites conditionedfor their reception and final disposal. 12. Areas of fuel storage shouldbe located at least 100m from houses and other facilities. 53

13. Soilsresulting from dredgingoperations, excavations or constructiondebris shouldnot be abandoned. The contractorwill use these materials for filling of irrigationcanal banks or other areas previouslyagreed with the supervisor. 14. The contractorwill be responsiblefor safety of their workers and will take measuresto minimize and respondto accidentsduring construction. 15. The contractorwill ensure the applicationof all regulationsand laws in Guyanarelated to the conservationof protectedflora and fauna, with specificattention to any protectedareas that may be locatednear the constructionsites. 16. The contractorwill maintain signs indicatingthe populationabout the constructionactivities in order to minimizeaccidents. If the constructionsite interfereswith paths used by surrounding population,provisional crossings clearly markedwill be prepared by the contractor. 17. The contractorwill maintain the equipmentused in the works to minimizespills and leaks of oil, fuel and other hazardousmaterials, as well as gas emissions. 18. The use of pesticidesand herbicideswill be minimizedduring construction. 19. The contractorwill maintainbasic equipmentfor control of fires. 20. Deviationof naturalwater courses will be minimized. If these deviationsare necessary,the time of constructionshould be minimizedand the natural course of water shouldbe promptlyrestored once constructionis completed. 21. The constructionequipment will not be washed in irrigationcanals or water courses in orderto avoid contaminationof water that may be used for human consumptionor agriculture. 22. After constructionis completed,the contractorwill take measuresto ensure rapid re-vegetationof areas where vegetationwas removedduring construction. 23. The contractorwill promptlyrepair any access road or other infrastructurethat may have been damagedduring construction. 24. If during excavationor dredging,the contractorencounters archaeological or culturally important artifacts, constructionactivities in the specificarea of the finding will be stoppedand the supervisorwill be informedin order to define actions to be taken, such as reporting to the appropriateinstitution or universityfor protectionof the cultural artifact. 25. The contractorwill promptlyremove all equipmentfrom the constructionsite after completion. Additionally,it will ensurethat drainageof water is availablefrom the constructionarea to drainagecanals or water bodies and no pools of water remainto reduce mosquitobreeding. Finally,all remainingwaste and constructionmaterials will be removedfrom the constructionsite and storage areas after works are completed. 54

Annex 11 GUYANA: El Nifio Emergency Assistance Project Project Processing Budget and Schedule

A. ProjectBudget (US$000) Planned Actual (At final PCD stage) $200,000 $66,900

B. Project Schedule Planned Actual (At final PCD stage)

Time taken to prepare the project (months) Threemonths First IDA mission(identification) 03/30/1998 03/30/1998 Pre-appraisalmission departure 05/08/1998 05/08/1998 Appraisal 07/06/1998 07/13/1998 Negotiations 09/09/1998 09/17/1998 Planned Date of Effectiveness 10/30/1998

Prepared by: CivilDefense Commission, Presidential Secretariat

Preparationassistance: None

IDA staff who workedon the project included:

ThakoorPersaud TeamnLeader EmmanuelNjomo SeniorFinancial Analyst Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez Environmentand Water ResourcesSpecialist Efraim Jimenez ProcurementSpecialist Hannah Koilpillai Disbursement Officer RobertoCucullu CountryLawyer Frank van Houten Consultant Marie-AdeleTchakounte Team Assistant

Notes: (1) The GOG requested IDA assistance in March, 1998 after the ENSO impacts were well- advanced. Part of the explanationfor this was because:(a) the impact of the droughttook a while to asses, (b) there was a national election in mid-December,1997 after the death of President CheddiJagan and (c) there were some post election denmonstrationsand violence. (2) The project was prepared in three months. However, Board presentation was affected by delays in getting GOG actions for finalizationof creationof the Project CoordinatingUnit (PCU) and appointment of its coordinator. Part of the reason for GOG delays were (a) a civil service strike and (b) continuedpost election civil disturbances. (3) To minimize implementationobstacles once the project is approved, IDA worked with the various project entities to satisfy all negotiation, disbursement and other loan processing conditionsbefore the BoardDate. Key procurementactions were also advanced. 55

Annex 12 GUYANA: El Nifio Emergency Assistance Project Documents in the Project File*

A. Project ImplementationPlan

OperationalManual for the CoordinatingUnit.

B. Bank Staff Assessments * Assessmentof Financial ManagementCapacity of the CoordinatingUnit * Assessmentof FinancialManagement Capacity of the NationalDrainage and Irrigation Board * Assessmentof the ProcurementProcess in Guyana * Assessmentof the capabilityof local contractors

C. Other * Project InformationDocument * Minutesof the PID Meeting * Minutesof the PAD Meeting * ProposedEl NifnoMeasures, The GuyanaWater Authority, May 15, 1998 * El NifnoProposals, Georgetown Sewerage and Water Commissioners,May 13, 1998 * El NinfoEmergency Proposals, The NationalDrainage and IrrigationBoard, May 5, 1998 * AgriculturalCredit Portfolio,Guyana National Credit Bank, April 20, 1998 * The Effect of El Niflo/LaNifia and SouthernOscillation on SouthAmerican Precipitation, (1997), Kemp Simon,M.Sc. Thesis,University of Reading,U.K. * An investigationof the effects of ENSO on Guyana's Rainfall,(1998) K. Simon, HydrometeorologicalDepartment, Ministry of Agriculture,Guyana - The Current DroughtPeriod, Consequencesand Impacts,(1995), Ministryof Agriculture, Guyana * Floods Rain in Guyana,(1996), SheikKhan, HydrometeorologicalDepartment, Ministry of Agriculture,Guyana * Press reports, floods 1996,various newspapers,Guyana * First, Second,and Third Six-MonthlyProgress Report on Assignmentin Guyana,(1996/97), R.K. Persaud,National Drainage and IrrigationBoard, Ministryof Agriculture,Guyana * Improvementand DisseminationProgram of the HydrometeorologicalService

*Includingelectronic files. 56

Annex 13 Status of Bank Group Operations in Guyana IBRD Loans and IDA Credits in the Operations Portfolio

Difference Between expected Original Amount in USS Millions and actual Loan or Fiscal disbursements a/ Project ID Credit Year Borrower Purpose No. IBRD IDA Cancellations Undisbursed Orig Frm Rev'd

Number of Closed Loans/credits: 37

Active Loans GY-PE-7269 IDA28790 1996 GOVERNMENTOF GUYANA SECONDARY EDUCATION 0.00 17.30 0.00 14.87 4.89 0.00 GY-PE-34605 IDA26690 1995 GOVERNMENT OF GUYANA FIN SCTR & BUS ENV 0.00 3.50 0.00 1.42 8.42 1.62 GY-PE-7257 IDA25590 1994 GOVT OF GUYANA WATER/SEWERAGE 0.00 17.50 0.00 10.29 7.35 0.00 GY-PE-7258 IDA24770 1993 GOVT OF GUYANA INFRASTRUCTURE REHAB 0.00 26.00 0.00 6.97 4.75 0.00 GY-PE-7266 IDA24800 1993 GOVERNMENT OF GUYANA PUBLIC ADMINISTRATIO 0.00 12.00 0.00 4.99 5.01 0.00

Total 0.00 76.30 0.00 38.54 30.42 1.62

Active Loans Closed Loans Total Total Disbursed (IBRD and IDA): 36.21 272.28 308.49 of which has been repaid: 0.00 69.99 69.99 Total now held by IBRD and IDA: 76.30 195.97 272.27 Amount sold : 0.00 .77 .77 Of which repaid : 0.00 .77 .77 Total Undisbursed : 38.54 0.00 38.54

a. Intended disbursements to date minus actual disbursements to date as projected at appraisal. b. Rating of 1-4: see OD 13.05. Annex D2. Preparation of Implementation Summary (Form 590). Following the FY94 Annual Review of Portfolio performance (ARPP), a letter based system will be used (HS = highly Satisfactory, S - satisfactory, U = unsatisfactory, HU - highly unsatisfactory): see proposed Improvements in Project and Portfolio Performance Rating Methodology (SecM94-901), August 23, 1994.

Note: Disbursement data is updated at the end of the first week of the month. 57

STATEMENT OF IFC's Committed and Disbursed Portfolio (In US DollarMillions)

Committed Disbursed IFC IFC FY Approval Company Loan Equity Quasi Partic Loan Equity Quasi Partic

Total Portfolio: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

ApprovalsPending Commitment Loan Equity Onasi Partic 1998 GUYAMBANK 7.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1998 SEF CARALODGE .68 0.00 0.00 0.00 1998 SEF IDS HL 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

TotalPending Committnent: 8.68 1.00 0.00 0.00 58

Annex 14

Guyanaat a glance 812617 Latin POVERTYand SOCIAL America Low. Guyana & Carib. Income Developmentdlsmond Populationmid-1996 (millions) 0.84 485 3,229 GNPper capita 1996(US$) 710 3.710 Sfe500 expectancy GNP 1996 (billionsUSs) 0.80 1.799 1.601 Averageannual growth, 1990-96 Population(X) 0.9 1.7 1.7 GNP Gross Labor force (X) 1.9 2.3 1.7 per primary Most recent estimate (latestyear available since 1989) capita enrollment Poverty.headcount index (% of populason) Urbanpopulation (% of totalpopulation) 36 74 29 Life expectancyat birth (years) 66 69 63 Infantmortality (per 1,000live bitlhs) 60 37 69 Accessto safe water Child malnutrition(% of children under 5) 3 Access to safe water (% of population) 83 80 53 Illiteracy (%ofpopulation age 15+) 2 13 34 - Guyana Gross primaryenrollment (% of school-agepopulation) 98 110 105 Male 98 .. 112 Low-income grup Female 98 .. 98

KEY ECONOMICRATIOS and LONG-TERMTRENDS 1975 1985 1995 1996 Economicratloa' GDP (millions USS) 504.2 458.6 629.3 718.2 Gross domesticinvestmentlGDP 33.1 35.8 36.9 30.4 Exportsof goodsand serviceslGDP 74.9 48.1 100.0 100.8 Opennessof economy Gross domesticsavingsiGDP 33.0 22.0 28.1 25.3 Gross nabonal savingslGDP .. .. 17.8 21.3

Currentaccount balancelGDP .. .. -19.1 -9.2 Interestpayments/GDP 2.0 2.9 3.7 2.8 Savings Investment Total debtUGDP 60.9 326.2 334.5 221.7 Total debt serMceiexports .. .. 17.3 14.2 Present value of debtlGDP .. .. 251.5 169.9 Presentvalue of debVexports .. .. 251.7 168.5 Indebtedness

197145 1936-96 1995 1916 199745 (averageannual growth) Guyana GDP -3.0 2.7 5.0 7.9 4.5 Low-incomegroup GNPpercapita -5.1 2.0 0.1 .. 3.5 Exports of goods and servces -5.2 5.0 8.0 12.1 5.2

STRUCTUREof the ECONOMY

(%ofGDP) '975 1985 1995 1996 Growth ratesof output and Inveastment[%) Agriculture 31.1 26.8 35.4 35.4 30 Industry 34.3 24.6 24.9 25.7 20 Manufacturing 14.7 13.9 7.3 7.0e _ Servces 34.6 48.5 39.7 39.0 10

Privateconsumption 47.4 59.9 58.5 57.7 -10- 1 92 93 5' ss General govemmentconsumption 19.8 18.1 15.4 17.0. Importsof gOodsand seMices 74.9 61.9 110.7 105.9 GDI GDP

1975-85 1986-96 1995 1996 (averageannual growth) Growth ratesof exports andIm ports (Y) Agriculture 0.0 5.1 8.0 7.7 25 Industry -6.1 -0.1 0.7 11.3 20 Manufacturing -2.5 -6.8 12.5 2.9 1i Servces -2.0 1.1 5.3 6.1 100 / Privateconsumption -1.2 .. -4.5 5.6 o / General govemmentconsumption -11.5 _10.5 19.1 4/5 92 93 94 50-9 Gross domesticInvestment -13.1 Z3 24.9 -7.2 -10 - Importsof goodsand services -8.2 1.4 -5.0 2.2 E 0m r Gross national product -4.3 Z6 5.0 7.9 o

Note: 1996 data are preliminaryestimates. Figures In Italics are for yearsother than thosespechlfed. The diamondsshow four key Indicatorsin the country (in bold) comparedwith Its income-groupaverage. n data are missing, the diamondwill be incomplete. 59

Annex 14 - Guyana at a Glance Guyana

PRiCESand GOVERNMENT FINANCE 1975 1985 1995 1998( Dnmatk potcu Inlation (1) (N rAe) ro Consumerprdces 7.9 15.0 12.3 7.1 knpilitGDPdeflator 14.7 14.5 11.5 5.8 ' Governmenttlnotncito (%of GDP) Currenitrenue .. 40.0 33.5 34.0 *r 02 3 04u 4 Current budget bnee .3.6. 82 10.8 - GOd. -0--c O01rallsurplus/deficit .. -54.4 -5.8 -4.t TRADE 1975 1995 1999 19N (noitonrUS3) Export nd import 1t (milL US% Totale*xorts (fob) ,, 214 496 sOs no Othermetals .. 73 83 se Sugar .. se 126 151 Manufactures .. 21 28 22 0o Tota imports(di) .. .. 537 589

Food .. 5 23 25 soc Fueland energy .. 90 102

Exportpricelndex(1987=100) .. 82 130 135 so SI92 U U U U Importprice Index(1987.100) .. .. 127 128 JE*Wot hpoub Temisoftrade(1097100) .. .. 102 105

BALANCEoi PAYMENTS 1978 1988 1995 1988 (nmiHinrsUSS) Curmntaeaount balmn. to GOPratio () Eponsrtorgoods and senres .. 245 829 724 a Importsof goodsandsersrceu 315 897 781 4 U SI U U seU Resourceblance .. -70 -e8 -37 - Netfctor Inoone .. -71 484 -54 4 Notcurrenttansern .. 11 32 24 4 Currentaccount balance, 12 . beforeofiTaCl tcaptaltransfers .. -130 -120 -86 44 FlnancingItems (net) .. -59 120 129 .4. Changesin net sers .. 189 a -63 .sn

ReserAssIncluding gotd (mil. US$) 100 8 263 332 Con%srsionrute (loci/SS) 2.4 4.3 140.0 140.2

EXTERNALDEST and RESOURCEFLOWS 1978 1988 1995 1998 (nliono USS) Composaionoftow debt, 195 (mill. USS) Toet debtoutsandinig and dlsbursed 307 1.495 2,105 IBRD 15 85 35 27 F I IOA 5 27 203 212 F 51 t 2x Totaldebt sernice 24 73 109 IBRD 1 7 9 S. 7 IDA 0 0 2 2 Compositionof net resourceflows Oltcial grants 0 9 21 .. D Offiial crdfiors 57 52 5 .. 401 Prsielecredfinrs 41 -5 -10 .. E Foreigndect lnvoment 1 2 3 .. 1Ce1 Portlolloequfty 0 0 0 WorldBank pmirorm Commtments 12 9 22 20 A-eRD E-B bUbn- Disbursemerds a 3 18 16 s-IDA D--O,UIt-laUaI F.-FPnt. Principalrepymeants 0 2 7 8 C-IMF G-Shd-ram Netowts 8 1 I I '°1 hbntrespapryemrrt 1 4 5 4 Ntr bvnsfers 5 -4 8 8

DenlopmentEconomics 812897 MAP SECTION IBRD29867

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OCTOBER1998