Organised Crime Outlook Sweden A method for and assessment of likely future trends in organised crime in the EU Report 2006:4 PDF DOCUMENT With financial support from the AGIS Programme European Commission – Directorate General Justice, Freedom and Security Organised Crime Outlook Sweden A method for and assessment of likely future trends in organised crime in the EU REPORT 2006:4 PDF Document AGIS 2004 With financial support from the AGIS Programme European Commission – Directorate General Justice, Freedom and Security Production: The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Brå), Information and Publication P.O. Box 1386, SE-111 93 Stockholm, Sweden. Phone +46 8 401 87 00. Fax +46 8 411 90 75. E-mail
[email protected] Internet www.bra.se Author: Monika Karlsson, Lars Korsell, Daniel Vesterhav Cover: Ylva Hellström © Brottsförebyggande rådet 2006 Contents PREFACE 5 PROJECT ORGANISED CRIME OUTLOOK 6 SCENARIO 1: WHAT COULD THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE FOR LICIT MARKETS IN SWEDEN IN 2015? 11 A global arena 15 Classical version of the welfare State 19 Rightwinds 22 New version of the welfare State 24 SCENARIO 2: WHAT COULD THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE FOR ILLICIT MARKETS IN SWEDEN IN 2015? 26 The non-intrusive State 31 Political control 36 The State on retreat 40 Regaining control 43 SCENARIO 3: WHAT COULD THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE FOR THE STRUCTURE OF ORGANISED CRIME GROUPS IN SWEDEN IN 2015? 47 Welfare for few 52 The strong State 55 “Europised” Nordic model 58 Locally based welfare 61 SCENARIO 4: WHAT COULD THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE FOR ORGANISED CRIME GROUPS’ COUNTERSTRATEGIES IN SWEDEN IN 2015? 64 Victims in focus 67 Proactive crime control 70 Focus on everyday crimes 74 Knowledge-based law enforcement 77 LIST OF PERSONS PARTICIPATING IN BRAINSTORM SEMINARS AND INTERVIEWS 80 BIBLIOGRAPHY 83 Books 83 Public prints 84 Scientific articles and other publications 85 Preface This is a report presenting a case study which has formed part of a larger project called Organised Crime Outlook – A method for and assessment of likely future trends in organised crime in the EU.