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THE REAL STATE of REAL ESTATE Methodology Methodology

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THE REAL STATE of REAL ESTATE Methodology Methodology THE REAL STATE OF REAL ESTATE Methodology Methodology • Project Monitor InfoPro Surveys • Properties Desk Research Methodology: Limitations Profile: Low, mid, or high‐end Floor levels Quality of amenities Construction stage View General Indicators Number of Real Estate Transactions 120,000 104,198 100,000 94,046 93,211 85,025 83,770 77,090 77,485 80,000 76,529 71,635 72,297 5% decrease 59,082 58,789 58,000 60,000 55,415 51,556 53,770 48,874 39,910 37,736 40,000 20,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 7M 7M 2016 2017 Value of Real Estate Transactions (Million of USD) 10,000 9,450 9,162 8,762 8,907 9,000 8,528 8,319 8,368 8,000 17% increase 6,958 7,000 6,444 6,000 5,387 5,000 4,594 4,175 4,000 3,296 3,120 2,883 2,883 3,000 2,142 1,835 1,742 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 7M 2016 7M 2017 Number of Real Estate Transactions Across Cazas 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Beirut Baabda, Aley, Chouf Kesrouan, Jbeil Metn Value of Real Estate Transactions Across Cazas 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Beirut Baabda, Aley, Chouf Kesrouan, Jbeil Metn Number of Construction Permits 13% increase 20,000 18,193 17,641 17,987 18,000 17,097 16,724 16,663 16,000 14,836 15,092 13,219 13,533 14,000 12,975 12,819 13,079 12,356 11,567 12,000 10,461 10,207 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Construction Permits in sqm (thousands of sqm) 20,000 17,625 18,000 16,069 16,301 16,000 1% decrease 14,364 14,526 13,538 14,000 12,797 12,333 12,234 12,000 10,000 9,044 8,826 8,819 8,693 8,244 7,636 8,000 6,724 6,854 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Supply Assessment Supply Geographic Distribution in Greater Beirut Beirut 24% Beirut Suburbs 76% NB: For buildings in the past three years Supply Geographic Distribution in Greater Beirut Mazraa 7% Fanar 7% Ashrafieh Dekouane Mousseitbeh 6% 5% Deir Koubel Jounieh 5% Zouk Mosbeh 4% 4% Aramoun 3% 2% 4% Zalka Ras Beirut 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% Sin El Fil 3% Hazmieh 2% 0% 2% 3% Hadath 2% Bleibel 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Bourj El Brajneh 2%2% 2% Mansourieh Zouk Mikael Naccache Khaldeh Bsaba Furn El Shebbak Baabda Chiah Baushrieh NB: For buildings in the past three years Building Specifications in Greater Beirut Previous 3 years Last 3 years Land Area (2012 ‐2014) (2015 – 2017) Beirut Suburbs Beirut Suburbs Less than 1,000 sqm 79% 35% 87% 44% Between 1,000 and 1,999 sqm 15% 43% 6% 38% Between 2,000 and 2,999 sqm 5% 11% 4% 10% Between 3,000 and 3,499 sqm 0% 5% 1% 4% 10,000 sqm and above 2% 7% 1% 4% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Average size: Average size: Average size: Average size: 740 sqm 3075 sqm 655 sqm 1700 sqm Building Specifications in Greater Beirut Previous 3 years Last 3 years Built‐Up Area (2012 ‐2014) (2015 – 2017) Beirut Suburbs Beirut Suburbs Less than 1,000 sqm 1% 1% 1% 2% Between 1,000 and 2,499 sqm 29% 32% 25% 34% Between 2,500 and 4,999 sqm 36% 40% 47% 42% Between 5,000 and 7,499 sqm 13% 17% 14% 11% Between 7,500 sqm and 9,999 sqm 8% 5% 5% 6% 10,000 sqm and above 12% 5% 8% 6% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Average size: Average size: Average size: Average size: 5800 sqm 4700 sqm 4600 sqm 4100 sqm Building Specifications in Greater Beirut Previous 3 years Last 3 years Number of Floors (2012 ‐2014) (2015 – 2017) Beirut Suburbs Beirut Suburbs Between Two and Five Floors 0% 31% 0% 29% Between Six and Ten Floors 20% 53% 13% 55% Between Eleven and Fifteen Floors 48% 12% 57% 13% Between Sixteen and Twenty Floors 25% 3% 25% 3% Above Twenty Floors 7% 1% 5% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% No major differences across years Building Specifications in Greater Beirut Previous 3 years Last 3 years Averages (2012 ‐2014) (2015 – 2017) Beirut Suburbs Beirut Suburbs Average Floor Area 272 sqm 340 sqm 240 sqm 307 sqm Average of number of living rooms2211 Average of number of bedrooms3333 Average of number of WCs3333 Average floor sizes are similar across the different areas in Beirut and its surroundings, but are the smallest in Beirut and the largest in Baabda and Kesrouan. Floor areas between 200 sqm and 450 sqm are the most common, with al most three‐quarters of projects. Supply Across Sizes in Greater Beirut 60% 53% Average size: 171 sqm 50% Average size: 142 sqm 40% 35% 30% 27% 24% 20% 14% 11% 10% 10% 7% 6% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% Less than 100 100 - 149 sqm 150 - 199 sqm 200 - 249 sqm 250 - 299 sqm 300 - 349 sqm 350 - 399 sqm 400 sqm and sqm Above Total Supply (2012-2014) Total Supply (2015-2017) Amenities Demand Assessment Areas with the Highest Percent of Sold Units in Greater Beirut 80% 73% NB: For buildings in the past three 70% 67% years 60% 60% 56% Beirut 50% 47% 46% 38% 42% 39% 40% 35% Beirut Suburbs 30% 62% 20% 10% 0% Ain El Bsaba Bleibel Furn El Bourj El New Mar Takla Lailaki Hazmieh Ashrafieh Roummaneh Shebbak Brajneh Demand Across Sizes in Greater Beirut 60% 55% 53% Supply is following demand in the past three years 50% 40% 30% 24% 22% 20% 11% 12% 10% 7% 7% 2% 2% 1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1% 0.4% 0% Less than 100 100 - 149 sqm 150 - 199 sqm 200 - 249 sqm 250 - 299 sqm 300 - 349 sqm 350 - 399 sqm 400 sqm and sqm Above Supply (2015 - 2017) Demand (2015 - 2017) Demand Across Sizes in Greater Beirut 60% 52% Demand for smaller apartments is increasing 50% 46% 40% 31% 30% 23% 25% 20% 10% 10% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7%0.3% 0% Less than 100 100 - 149 sqm 150 - 199 sqm 200 - 249 sqm 250 - 299 sqm 300 - 349 sqm 350 - 399 sqm 400 sqm and sqm Above Supply in 2017 Demand in 2017 (Units Sold) Sizes in Demand in Greater Beirut Smaller units with sizes between 100 and 150 sqm are increasingly in demand in Greater Beirut. In Beirut: Kantari, Saifi, Beirut Central District, and high‐end hubs in Ashrafieh: Flats starting at around 75 sqm Koraytem, Manara, Raoucheh and Snoubra: Units around 180 to 300 sqm Ramlet el Baida, Verdun and Ain El‐Tineh: Units between 200 and 400 sqm Sizes in Demand in Greater Beirut In Baabda and Metn, two main types of demand: Two‐bedroom flats between 90 and 130 sqm Three‐bedroom flats between 130 and 170 sqm In Keserwan: Apartment sizes between 110 to 170 sqm Large units around 275 sqm In Aley: Apartments around 110 sqm and below Real Estate prices and their evolution Admin Beirut Price Evolution: Ashrafieh 4,000 40.0% CAGR 2014 – 2017 : 3,660 3,680 3,660 -3.4% 3,500 3,510 3,440 35.0% 3,500 3,300 33.3% 30.0% 3,000 2,850 25.0% 2,500 2,500 22.8% 20.0% USD 2,100 19.0% in 1,900 2,000 1,800 15.0% 14.0% 10.0% Prices 1,500 1,350 1,200 1,250 10.5% 8.0% 5.0% 1,000 4.2% 5.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 500 ‐0.5% ‐2.0% ‐5.0% ‐4.1% ‐4.1% 0 ‐10.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 New Units CAGR‐new units Price Evolution: Beirut Central District 7000 CAGR 2014 – 2017 : 60.0% 6,540 6,650 6,600 -1.3% 6,500 6,500 6,435 6,400 6,400 6,000 6,050 6000 50.0% 52.2% 5,500 5000 40.0% 4,000 4,000 37.5% 4000 30.0% USD 3,500 in 3000 20.0% Prices 2300 2000 14.3% 10.0% 9.1% 8.3% 7.4% 1000 3.1% 0.0% 1.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% ‐1.0% ‐3.8% ‐3.0% 0 ‐6.9% ‐10.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 New Units CAGR‐new units Price Evolution: Mousseitbeh CAGR 2014 – 2017 : 4,500 60.0% -7.2% 4,250 4,100 4,105 3,850 3,900 3,850 4,000 3,800 50.0% 3,650 3,500 47.4% 3,350 40.0% 3,075 3,000 2,800 35.7% 30.0% 31.3% USD 2,500 in 2,100 20.0% 2,000 1,900 1,600 Prices 1,500 10.0% 1,500 9.0% 6.7% 0.0% 1,000 0.0% 1.3% 1.3% 0.1% ‐3.5% ‐5.2% 500 ‐6.2% ‐10.0% ‐9.5% ‐8.2% ‐8.2% 0 ‐20.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 New Units CAGR‐new units Price Evolution: Mazraa CAGR 2014 – 2017 3,000-2.2% 80.0% 2,575 2,600 2,600 2,635 2,580 70.0% 70.6% 2,485 2,465 2,500 2,300 60.0% 2,100 54.2% 50.0% 2,000 1,850 40.0% USD 1,450 30.0% in 1,500 1,200 20.0% 21.4% Prices 10.0% 1,000 13.5% 12.0% 850 9.5% 700 700 0.0% 1.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ‐2.1% ‐0.8% 500 ‐3.7% ‐10.0% ‐20.0% ‐17.2% 0 ‐30.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 New Units CAGR‐new units Price Evolution: Ras Beirut CAGR6,000 2014 – 2017 : 120.0% -3.2% 5,150 5,100 5,080 4,900 4,850 100.0% 5,000 4,750 4,725 97.4% 4,440 4,400 80.0% 4,000 3,750 60.0% USD in 3,000 2,300 40.0% Prices 2,100 2,050 1,900 2,000 35.5% 1,550 26.7% 20.0% 1,000 9.5% 0.0% 3.2% 5.1% 0.0% ‐1.0% ‐0.4% ‐2.6% ‐0.9% ‐4.5% ‐6.0% ‐7.3% 0 ‐10.9% ‐20.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 New Units CAGR‐new units Beirut Suburbs Northern Suburbs Price Evolution 2,000 3.5% CAGR 2014 – 2017 : -0.3% 3.0% 3.1% 1,980 1,980 1,975 1,970 2.5% 1,960 2.0% 1,960 1.5% 1,945 USD in 1,940 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% Prices 1,920 1,915 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ‐0.5% 1,900 ‐0.5% ‐1.0% 1,880 ‐1.5% ‐1.3% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 New Units CAGR‐new units Percentage of Units Sold 6,000 63% 63% 5,230 62% 5,000 61% 3,963 4,000 60% 3,296 3,273 3,000 59% 58% 2,308 58% 1,909 58% Number of units of Number 2,000 57% 1,000 56% 0 55% 2015 2016 2017 Total supply Total Sold Percentage of Sold Units Areas to Be / Not to Be* Antelias Bsalim Dbayeh For Developers Price Evolution: Antelias 2,050 10.0% CAGR 2014 – 2017 : 0.4% 9.0% 2,000 8.0% 2,000 1,975 6.0% 1,950 1,950 4.0% USD 1,900 2.6% 2.0% in 1,900 1.3% 0.0% ‐0.8% Prices 0.0% 1,850 1,850 1,835 ‐2.0% ‐4.0% 1,800 ‐6.0%
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