THE REAL STATE OF REAL ESTATE Methodology Methodology
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Desk Research Methodology: Limitations
Profile: Low, mid, or high‐end
Floor levels
Quality of amenities
Construction stage
View General Indicators Number of Real Estate Transactions
120,000
104,198
100,000 94,046 93,211
85,025 83,770 77,090 77,485 80,000 76,529 71,635 72,297 5% decrease 59,082 58,789 58,000 60,000 55,415 51,556 53,770 48,874
39,910 37,736 40,000
20,000
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 7M 7M 2016 2017 Value of Real Estate Transactions (Million of USD)
10,000 9,450 9,162 8,762 8,907 9,000 8,528 8,319 8,368
8,000 17% increase 6,958 7,000 6,444
6,000 5,387
5,000 4,594 4,175 4,000 3,296 3,120 2,883 2,883 3,000 2,142 1,835 1,742 2,000
1,000
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 7M 2016 7M 2017 Number of Real Estate Transactions Across Cazas
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Beirut Baabda, Aley, Chouf Kesrouan, Jbeil Metn Value of Real Estate Transactions Across Cazas
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Beirut Baabda, Aley, Chouf Kesrouan, Jbeil Metn Number of Construction Permits
13% increase 20,000 18,193 17,641 17,987 18,000 17,097 16,724 16,663
16,000 14,836 15,092
13,219 13,533 14,000 12,975 12,819 13,079 12,356 11,567 12,000 10,461 10,207 10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Construction Permits in sqm (thousands of sqm)
20,000
17,625 18,000 16,069 16,301 16,000 1% decrease 14,364 14,526 13,538 14,000 12,797 12,333 12,234 12,000
10,000 9,044 8,826 8,819 8,693 8,244 7,636 8,000 6,724 6,854
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Supply Assessment Supply Geographic Distribution in Greater Beirut
Beirut 24%
Beirut Suburbs 76%
NB: For buildings in the past three years Supply Geographic Distribution in Greater Beirut Mazraa 7% Fanar 7% Ashrafieh Dekouane Mousseitbeh 6% 5% Deir Koubel Jounieh 5%
Zouk Mosbeh 4% 4% Aramoun 3% 2% 4% Zalka Ras Beirut 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% Sin El Fil 3% Hazmieh 2% 0% 2% 3% Hadath 2% Bleibel 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Bourj El Brajneh 2%2% 2% Mansourieh
Zouk Mikael Naccache
Khaldeh Bsaba Furn El Shebbak Baabda Chiah Baushrieh NB: For buildings in the past three years Building Specifications in Greater Beirut
Previous 3 years Last 3 years Land Area (2012 ‐2014) (2015 – 2017) Beirut Suburbs Beirut Suburbs Less than 1,000 sqm 79% 35% 87% 44%
Between 1,000 and 1,999 sqm 15% 43% 6% 38%
Between 2,000 and 2,999 sqm 5% 11% 4% 10%
Between 3,000 and 3,499 sqm 0% 5% 1% 4%
10,000 sqm and above 2% 7% 1% 4% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average size: Average size: Average size: Average size: 740 sqm 3075 sqm 655 sqm 1700 sqm Building Specifications in Greater Beirut Previous 3 years Last 3 years Built‐Up Area (2012 ‐2014) (2015 – 2017) Beirut Suburbs Beirut Suburbs Less than 1,000 sqm 1% 1% 1% 2%
Between 1,000 and 2,499 sqm 29% 32% 25% 34%
Between 2,500 and 4,999 sqm 36% 40% 47% 42%
Between 5,000 and 7,499 sqm 13% 17% 14% 11%
Between 7,500 sqm and 9,999 sqm 8% 5% 5% 6%
10,000 sqm and above 12% 5% 8% 6% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Average size: Average size: Average size: Average size: 5800 sqm 4700 sqm 4600 sqm 4100 sqm Building Specifications in Greater Beirut Previous 3 years Last 3 years Number of Floors (2012 ‐2014) (2015 – 2017) Beirut Suburbs Beirut Suburbs Between Two and Five Floors 0% 31% 0% 29%
Between Six and Ten Floors 20% 53% 13% 55%
Between Eleven and Fifteen Floors 48% 12% 57% 13%
Between Sixteen and Twenty Floors 25% 3% 25% 3%
Above Twenty Floors 7% 1% 5% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
No major differences across years Building Specifications in Greater Beirut Previous 3 years Last 3 years Averages (2012 ‐2014) (2015 – 2017) Beirut Suburbs Beirut Suburbs Average Floor Area 272 sqm 340 sqm 240 sqm 307 sqm
Average of number of living rooms2211
Average of number of bedrooms3333
Average of number of WCs3333 Average floor sizes are similar across the different areas in Beirut and its surroundings, but are the smallest in Beirut and the largest in Baabda and Kesrouan. Floor areas between 200 sqm and 450 sqm are the most common, with al most three‐quarters of projects. Supply Across Sizes in Greater Beirut
60% 53% Average size: 171 sqm
50% Average size: 142 sqm
40% 35%
30% 27% 24%
20% 14% 11% 10% 10% 7% 6% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% Less than 100 100 - 149 sqm 150 - 199 sqm 200 - 249 sqm 250 - 299 sqm 300 - 349 sqm 350 - 399 sqm 400 sqm and sqm Above
Total Supply (2012-2014) Total Supply (2015-2017) Amenities Demand Assessment Areas with the Highest Percent of Sold Units in Greater Beirut 80% 73% NB: For buildings in the past three 70% 67% years
60% 60% 56% Beirut 50% 47% 46% 38% 42% 39% 40% 35% Beirut Suburbs 30% 62%
20%
10%
0% Ain El Bsaba Bleibel Furn El Bourj El New Mar Takla Lailaki Hazmieh Ashrafieh Roummaneh Shebbak Brajneh Demand Across Sizes in Greater Beirut
60% 55% 53% Supply is following demand in the past three years 50%
40%
30% 24% 22%
20%
11% 12% 10% 7% 7% 2% 2% 1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1% 0.4% 0% Less than 100 100 - 149 sqm 150 - 199 sqm 200 - 249 sqm 250 - 299 sqm 300 - 349 sqm 350 - 399 sqm 400 sqm and sqm Above
Supply (2015 - 2017) Demand (2015 - 2017) Demand Across Sizes in Greater Beirut 60%
52% Demand for smaller apartments is increasing 50% 46%
40%
31% 30% 23% 25%
20%
10% 10% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7%0.3% 0% Less than 100 100 - 149 sqm 150 - 199 sqm 200 - 249 sqm 250 - 299 sqm 300 - 349 sqm 350 - 399 sqm 400 sqm and sqm Above
Supply in 2017 Demand in 2017 (Units Sold) Sizes in Demand in Greater Beirut
Smaller units with sizes between 100 and 150 sqm are increasingly in demand in Greater Beirut.
In Beirut: Kantari, Saifi, Beirut Central District, and high‐end hubs in Ashrafieh: Flats starting at around 75 sqm
Koraytem, Manara, Raoucheh and Snoubra: Units around 180 to 300 sqm
Ramlet el Baida, Verdun and Ain El‐Tineh: Units between 200 and 400 sqm Sizes in Demand in Greater Beirut
In Baabda and Metn, two main types of demand: Two‐bedroom flats between 90 and 130 sqm Three‐bedroom flats between 130 and 170 sqm
In Keserwan: Apartment sizes between 110 to 170 sqm Large units around 275 sqm
In Aley: Apartments around 110 sqm and below Real Estate prices and their evolution Admin Beirut Price Evolution: Ashrafieh
4,000 40.0% CAGR 2014 – 2017 : 3,660 3,680 3,660 -3.4% 3,500 3,510 3,440 35.0% 3,500 3,300 33.3% 30.0% 3,000 2,850 25.0% 2,500 2,500 22.8% 20.0%
USD 2,100 19.0%
in 1,900 2,000 1,800 15.0% 14.0% 10.0% Prices 1,500 1,350 1,200 1,250 10.5% 8.0% 5.0% 1,000 4.2% 5.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 500 ‐0.5% ‐2.0% ‐5.0% ‐4.1% ‐4.1% 0 ‐10.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Price Evolution: Beirut Central District
7000 CAGR 2014 – 2017 : 60.0% 6,540 6,650 6,600 -1.3% 6,500 6,500 6,435 6,400 6,400 6,000 6,050 6000 50.0% 52.2% 5,500
5000 40.0%
4,000 4,000 37.5% 4000 30.0% USD 3,500 in
3000 20.0%
Prices 2300
2000 14.3% 10.0% 9.1% 8.3% 7.4% 1000 3.1% 0.0% 1.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% ‐1.0% ‐3.8% ‐3.0% 0 ‐6.9% ‐10.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Price Evolution: Mousseitbeh
CAGR 2014 – 2017 : 4,500 60.0% -7.2% 4,250 4,100 4,105 3,850 3,900 3,850 4,000 3,800 50.0% 3,650 3,500 47.4% 3,350 40.0% 3,075 3,000 2,800 35.7% 30.0% 31.3% USD
2,500 in
2,100 20.0% 2,000 1,900 1,600 Prices 1,500 10.0% 1,500 9.0% 6.7% 0.0% 1,000 0.0% 1.3% 1.3% 0.1% ‐3.5% ‐5.2% 500 ‐6.2% ‐10.0% ‐9.5% ‐8.2% ‐8.2% 0 ‐20.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Price Evolution: Mazraa
CAGR 2014 – 2017 3,000-2.2% 80.0%
2,575 2,600 2,600 2,635 2,580 70.0% 70.6% 2,485 2,465 2,500 2,300 60.0% 2,100 54.2% 50.0% 2,000 1,850 40.0% USD 1,450 30.0% in
1,500 1,200 20.0% 21.4%
Prices 10.0% 1,000 13.5% 12.0% 850 9.5% 700 700 0.0% 1.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ‐2.1% ‐0.8% 500 ‐3.7% ‐10.0% ‐20.0% ‐17.2% 0 ‐30.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Price Evolution: Ras Beirut
CAGR6,000 2014 – 2017 : 120.0% -3.2% 5,150 5,100 5,080 4,900 4,850 100.0% 5,000 4,750 4,725 97.4% 4,440 4,400 80.0% 4,000 3,750
60.0% USD
in
3,000
2,300 40.0%
Prices 2,100 2,050 1,900 2,000 35.5% 1,550 26.7% 20.0%
1,000 9.5% 0.0% 3.2% 5.1% 0.0% ‐1.0% ‐0.4% ‐2.6% ‐0.9% ‐4.5% ‐6.0% ‐7.3% 0 ‐10.9% ‐20.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Beirut Suburbs Northern Suburbs Price Evolution
2,000 3.5% CAGR 2014 – 2017 : -0.3% 3.0% 3.1% 1,980 1,980 1,975 1,970 2.5%
1,960 2.0% 1,960 1.5% 1,945 USD
in
1,940 1.0%
0.8% 0.5% Prices 1,920 1,915 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ‐0.5% 1,900 ‐0.5% ‐1.0%
1,880 ‐1.5% ‐1.3% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Percentage of Units Sold
6,000 63% 63% 5,230 62% 5,000
61% 3,963 4,000 60% 3,296 3,273
3,000 59% 58% 2,308 58% 1,909 58% Number of units of Number 2,000
57%
1,000 56%
0 55% 2015 2016 2017
Total supply Total Sold Percentage of Sold Units Areas to Be / Not to Be*
Antelias Bsalim Dbayeh
For Developers Price Evolution: Antelias
2,050 10.0% CAGR 2014 – 2017 : 0.4% 9.0% 2,000 8.0% 2,000 1,975 6.0% 1,950 1,950 4.0% USD 1,900 2.6% 2.0% in
1,900 1.3% 0.0% ‐0.8%
Prices 0.0% 1,850 1,850 1,835 ‐2.0%
‐4.0% 1,800 ‐6.0% ‐6.3% 1,750 ‐8.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Percentage of Units Sold: Antelias
600 78% 77% 547 76% 500 74% 434 431 74%
400 366 333 72% 317 300 70%
68% Number of units of Number 200 67%
66%
100 64%
0 62% 2015 2016 2017
Total supply Total Sold Percentage of Sold Units Price Evolution: Bsalim
1,880 4.0% CAGR 2014 – 2017 : 3.3% -0.3% 3.1% 1,860 1,860 3.0% 1,845 2.0% 1,840
1.0% 1,820 USD
in 0.0% 0.0% 1,800 1,800 1,795 ‐0.3% 1,790 Prices ‐1.0% 1,780 1,780 ‐2.0%
1,760 ‐3.0%
1,740 ‐3.5% ‐3.5% ‐4.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Percentage of Units Sold: Bsalim
600 62% 529 60% 499 60% 500
58%
400 56%
300 280 54% 256 53% 262
51% 52% Number of units of Number 200 158 50%
100 48%
0 46% 2015 2016 2017
Total supply Total Sold Percentage of Sold Units Eastern Suburbs Price Evolution
CAGR 20142,250 – 2017 : 0.0% 0.0% 2,225 -3% ‐0.5% 2,195 ‐0.5% 2,200 2,185 ‐1.0% 2,150 2,140 ‐1.5% ‐1.3% 2,100 ‐2.0% USD ‐2.1% ‐2.2%
in 2,040 2,050 ‐2.5%
1,995 ‐3.0% Prices 2,000 ‐3.5% 1,950 ‐4.0% 1,900 ‐4.5%
1,850 ‐4.7% ‐5.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Percentage of Units Sold
8,000 55% 7,187
7,000 6,511 54% 54% 54%
5,795 6,000 53%
5,000 52% 3,862 4,000 3,263 3,123 51% 3,000
Number of units of Number 50% 50% 2,000
1,000 49%
0 48% 2015 2016 2017
Total supply Total Sold Percentage of Sold Units Areas to Be / Not to Be*
Loueizeh Baabda Sin El Fil
For Developers Price Evolution: Baabda
2,800 8.0% CAGR 2014 – 2017 : 2,750-1% 2,730 6.0% 2,700 6.0% 2,700 2,660 4.0% 2,650 2,650 2.0% 2,600 1.9% 2,575 0.0% USD 2,550 0.0% ‐0.4% in
‐2.0% 2,500 ‐2.6% ‐4.0% Prices 2,450 2,430 ‐6.0% 2,400
2,350 ‐8.0%
2,300 ‐10.0% ‐10.0% 2,250 ‐12.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Percentage of Units Sold: Baabda
600 50% 46% 45% 42% 484 500 460 38% 40%
35% 400 30%
300 275 25%
224 20% Number of units of Number 200 174 15% 115 10% 100 5%
0 0% 2015 2016 2017
Total supply Total Sold Percentage of Sold Units Price Evolution: Sin El Fil
2,400 8.0% CAGR 2014 – 2017 : 0.2% 2,340 7.0% 6.0% 2,300
2,230 4.9% 4.0% 2,200 2,210 2,200 2,150 2.0% 2.3% USD 1.4% in
2,100 0.0% 0.0%
Prices 2,010 ‐2.0% 2,000
‐4.0%
1,900 ‐6.0% ‐5.6%
1,800 ‐8.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Percentage of Units Sold: Sin El Fil
1,000 60% 907 900 48% 50% 800
700 643 40% 600 30% 29% 500 30%
400
Number of units of Number 315 20% 300 264 192 200 151 10% 100
0 0% 2015 2016 2017
Total supply Total Sold Percentage of Sold Units Southern Suburbs Price Evolution
CAGR 20142,100 – 2017 : 6.0% -4% 2,040 2,050 5.2% 4.0% 2,000 1,955 1,940 1,950 2.0% 1,950
1,900 0.0% 0.0% USD ‐0.3% 1,850 in 1,800 ‐2.0% 1,800
Prices 1,750 1,730 ‐4.0% ‐4.2% ‐3.9% 1,700 ‐6.0% 1,650 ‐8.0% 1,600 ‐7.7% 1,550 ‐10.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Percentage of Units Sold
4,000 60%
3,430 3,500 49% 50% 3,034 3,000 2,770 41% 40% 2,500 36%
2,000 30%
1,403 1,500 1,355 Number of units of Number 1,099 20% 1,000 10% 500
0 0% 2015 2016 2017
Total supply Total Sold Percentage of Sold Units Areas to Be / Not to Be*
Haret Hreik Hadath Ain El Roummaneh
For Developers Price Evolution: Hadath
CAGR1,700 2014 – 20171,690 : 6.0% 0.4% 1,680 4.8% 4.0% 1,660 2.5% 1,650 2.0% 1,640 1,630
1,620 1,610 0.0% USD
in 0.0% 1,600 1,590 ‐1.2% ‐2.0% 1,580 1,575 Prices ‐2.2% 1,560 ‐4.0%
1,540 ‐6.0% 1,520 ‐5.9%
1,500 ‐8.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Percentage of Units Sold: Hadath
600 50% 51%
523 50% 500 438 49% 402 400 48%
47% 300 46% 235 46% 203 203
Number of units of Number 45% 200 45%
44% 100 43%
0 42% 2015 2016 2017
Total supply Total Sold Percentage of Sold Units Price Evolution: Ain El Roummaneh
CAGR1,850 2014 – 2017 : 2.0% -4.6% 1,800 1,800 1,780 1.0% 1,770 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 1,750 1,730 0.0% ‐1.0% 1,700 1,685 ‐2.0% USD
1,650 in
‐3.0% ‐2.6% 1,600 1,565 ‐4.0% Prices ‐3.9% 1,550 ‐5.0% 1,500 ‐6.0%
1,450 ‐7.0% ‐7.1% 1,400 ‐8.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Units CAGR‐new units Percentage of Units Sold: Ain El Roummaneh 200 63% 179 180 62% 62%
160 154 62% 140 128 61% 120 111
100 92 61% 60% 77 80 60% Number of units of Number 60% 60 60% 40
59% 20
0 59% 2015 2016 2017
Total supply Total Sold Percentage of Sold Units Conclusion