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Development of a Group Built Coupled Physical-Socio- Economic Modelling Framework for Soil Salinity Management in Agricultural Watersheds in Developing Countries

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GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES MCGILL UNIVERSITY FINAL ORAL EXAMINATION FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY OF MUHAMMAD AZHAR INAM BAIG DEPARTMENT OF BIORESOURCE ENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT OF A GROUP BUILT COUPLED PHYSICAL-SOCIO- ECONOMIC MODELLING FRAMEWORK FOR SOIL SALINITY MANAGEMENT IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES March 30th, 2017 9:00 AM Macdonald-Stewart Building, Room MS2-022 McGill University, Macdonald Campus COMMITTEE: Dr. Reza Salavati (Pro-Dean) (Institute of Parasitology) Dr. G.S.V. Raghavan (Chair) (Bioresource Engineering Department) Dr. Shiv O Prasher (Supervisor) (Bioresource Engineering Department) Dr. Jan Adamowski (Co-Supervisor) (Bioresource Engineering Department) Dr. Zhiming Qi (Internal Examiner) (Bioresource Engineering Department) Dr. Dror Etzion (External Member) (Desautels Faculty Management) Dr. Josephine Nalbantoglu, Dean of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies Members of the Faculty and Graduate Students are invited to attend ABSTRACT Stakeholder involvement in environmental modeling has gained considerable importance over the past twenty years. However, many water resource planning and management frameworks encounter significant challenges when trying to develop tools that do not require significant funding, time, or expertise and that facilitate stakeholder engagement in developing countries. This study aims to address such challenges by developing a stepwise participatory modeling framework to link physically-based models with stakeholder-assisted socio-economic models in the context of developing countries, using the Rechna Doab region of Pakistan as a case study area. In a first study, participatory system dynamics models (PSDM) were developed by contacting potential stakeholders and representing their views and policy options in the form of qualitative causal loop diagrams (CLDs). Meaningfully including stakeholder contributions in the modeling process helps incorporate the ideas and knowledge of local key stakeholders, integrates physical and socio-economic components within a watershed or subwatershed, and improves model boundaries and completeness by ensuring that all relevant issues and views are addressed. In next step, key physical and socio-economic processes were identified from the stakeholder-built CLDs. In a second study, the socio-economic components were modeled through distributed submodules in a Group-Built System Dynamics Model (GBSDM). Feedbacks between the distributed submodules describe the interactions between them and allow for the simulation of the behavior of the whole system at the watershed scale. The recommended structural and behavior validity tests were then employed to test and build confidence in the modeling system. In a third study, the physical components of the CLDs were modeled through the Spatial Agro-HydroSalinity Model (SAHYSMOD), a distributed model that simulates groundwater changes as well as salt and water movement within the crop root zone at the watershed scale. The model was calibrated (1983- 1988) and validated (1998-2003) over two five-year periods through the comparison of observed and simulated groundwater levels. The model simulated groundwater elevation accurately with observed R2 values of 0.906 and 0.925, Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiencies of 0.812 and 0.873, and mean errors of 0.436 and 0.486 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses performed on the model using Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) estimated that 70% of the observed data falls within the 95% and 5% uncertainty bounds. In final study, the GBSDM and SAHYSMOD were linked using the component modeling approach. Vensim Dynamic Link Libraries (DLL), Python, and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) in MS Excel were used as linking tools. MS Excel was used as the wrapper to exchange information between the socio-economic and physical system components. Six scenarios, including a base case scenario, one past implemented policy (the Salinity Control and Reclamation Project, SCARP), and various alternative management options for improving and reallocating canal water supply were tested. Spatial and temporal maps of changes in soil salinity, farm income, and water availability were prepared to evaluate the effects of the tested management options at the watershed scale. Policies were also evaluated for economic and environmental trade-offs through various performance indicators such as soil salinity, water availability, farm income and groundwater drawdown. The results clearly showed that canal lining and reallocating irrigation supplies had the potential to improve salt-affected areas. However, canal lining requires government support in the form of subsidies. The overall benefits of the proposed coupled model (P-GBSDM) are the provision of additional strengths to SAHYSMOD by incorporating socio-economic processes through stakeholder engagement. CURRICULUM VITAE UNIVERSITY EDUCATION MCGILL UNIVERSITY, QC, CANADA 2010- Present PH.D. (BIORESOURCE ENGINEERING) UNIVERSITY OF ENG. AND TECH., LAHORE, PAKISTAN 1998-2000 M.PHIL. (WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT) UNIVERSITY OF ENG. AND TECH., PESHAWAR, PAKISTAN 1993-1997 B.ENG. (AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING) EMPLOYMENT DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE ENGINEERING 2004-CURRENT BAHAUDDIN ZAKARIYA UNIVERSITY MULTAN, PAKISTAN ASSISTANT PROFESSOR DEPT. OF BIORESOURCE ENGINEERING SEP –DEC (2011 & 2012) MCGILL UNIVERSITY, QC, CANADA JAN–APRIL (2015 & 2016) TEACHING AND RESEARCH ASSISTANT & JUNE-AUG 2014 TECHNO CONSULTING ENGINEERS 2002-2004 KARACHI, PAKISTAN SENIOR ENGINEER HYDROLOGY AND SEDIMENTATION KHYBER CONSULTING ENGINEERS 2000-2002 PESHAWAR, PAKISTAN JUNIOR ENGINEER AWARDS . 2010-2014. Federal Scholarship Award. Ministry of Higher Education of Pakistan. 2011. Graduate Travel Awards (GREAT). Dept. of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, QC, Canada . 2010. Graduate Excellence Award. Dept. of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, QC, Canada. SELECTED PUBLICATIONS I. Peer-reviewed Publications 1. Inam A, Adamowski J, Halbe J, Malard J, Prasher S (2017) Coupling of a Distributed Stakeholder-Built System Dynamics Socio-Economic Model with SAHYSMOD for Sustainable Soil Salinity Management Part 1: Model Development. (Accepted in revision process for Journal of Hydrology) 2. Inam A, Adamowski J, Halbe J, Malard J, Prasher S (2017) Coupling of a Distributed Stakeholder-Built System Dynamics Socio-Economic Model with SAHYSMOD for Sustainable Soil Salinity Management Part 2: Model Coupling and Application. (Accepted in revision process for Journal of Hydrology) 3. Inam A, Albano R, Adamowski J, Prasher S (2017) Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of the Spatial Agro Hydro Salinity Model (SAHYSMOD) in the semi-arid climate of Rechna Doab, Pakistan. (Accepted in revision process for Journal of Environmental Modelling and Softwares) 4. Malard J, Inam A, Hassanzadeh E, Adamowski J, Tuy HA, Melgar- Quiñonez H (2017) Development of Tinamit, a software for dynamically coupling system dynamics with physically-based models. (Submitted to Water Resources Research) 5. Albano R, Mancusi L, Sole A, Inam A, Adamowski J, (2017) FloodRisk: a collaborative, free and open source software for flood risk analysis. (Accepted in revision process for Geomatic, Natural Hazard and Risk). 6. Inam A, Adamowski J, Halbe J, Prasher S, (2015). “Using Causal Loop Diagrams for the Initialization of Stakeholder Engagement in Soil Salinity Management in Agricultural Watersheds in Developing Countries: A Case Study in the Rechna Doab Watershed, Pakistan”. Journal of Environmental Management, 152, 251-267. II. Non-referred conference publications 1. Inam A, Adamowski J, Prasher S, (2015) Development and Application of a Decision Support System for Optimizing Cropping Patterns under Saline Agriculture Conditions in Rechna Doab, Pakistan. ASABE Annual International Meeting. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 152189304. (doi:10.13031 /aim.20152189304) 2. Inam A, Prasher S, Adamowski J, Zaman Q, Mann S (2014). Holistic Conceptualization of Soil Salinity Management Problems: Using a System Dynamics Approach in Rechna Doab Basin, Pakistan. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers. doi: 10.13031/aim.20141899480 III. Conference presentations 1. Inam A, Prasher S, Adamowski J, (2013). A Participatory System Dynamic Modeling Approach for Soil Salinity Management (Poster presentation). In ASABE Conference Westin Kanas City, Missouri, USA July 22–July 25, 2013. 2. Inam A, Prasher S, Adamowski J, (2013). A Stakeholder Assisted Dynamic Model to Facilitate Groundwater Management on Watershed Scale (Oral presentation). In CSBE/SCGAB Conference Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada July 8–July 11, 2013. 3. Inam A, Prasher S, Adamowski, J, (2014). Holistic Conceptualization of Soil Salinity Management Problems: Using a System Dynamics Approach in Rechna Doab Basin, Pakistan (Oral presentation). In ASABE Conference Montreal, Quebec, Canada July 13–July 16, 2014. 4. Inam A, Adamowski, J, Prasher S, (2015). Development and Application of a Decision Support System for Optimizing Cropping Patterns under Saline Agriculture Conditions in Rechna Doab, Pakistan (Poster presentation). In ASABE Annual International Meeting New Orleans, Louisiana, USA July 26- July29, 2015. 5. Inam A, Adamowski J, Prasher S, (2015). A Stakeholder Built System Dynamics Model for Sustainable Groundwater Management in Rechna Doab, Pakistan (Oral presentation). In Joint Assembly Montreal, Quebec, Canada May 03–May 07, 2015. 6. Inam A, Adamowski J, Prasher S, (2016). Application of A New Decision Support System for Assessing Soil Salinity Management Scenarios in Rechna Doab Basin, Pakistan (Oral presentation). In CSBE/SCGAB Annual General Meeting and Technical Conference Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada July 03- July 06, 2016. 7. Inam A, Malard J, Hassanzadeh E, Adamowski J, Tuy H, Melgar- Quinonez H, (2016) Design of Soil Salinity Policies with Tinamit, a Flexible and Rapid Tool to Couple Stakeholder-Built System Dynamics Models with Physically-Based Models. (Poster presentation). 12/2016, Conference: AGU Fall Meeting 2016, DOI: 10.13140 /RG.2.2.15715. 96804. .
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  • Appendix 3. the P-GBSD Model the Present Study

    Appendix 3. the P-GBSD Model the Present Study

    Appendix 3. The P-GBSD model The present study demonstrates the use of a coupled Physical-Group-Built System Dynamics Model (P-GBSDM) for shock scenario simulation and data extraction. This model was selected for the present study due to 1) its capacity to accurately represent complex socio-environmental systems as a result of its dynamically coupled structure and built-in feedback networks and 2) the participatory nature of model development, including variables and system level flow networks defined by local stakeholders. The P-GBSDM, built by Inam, Adamowski, and Malard of the present paper, was created by integrating the physical Spatial Agro Hydro Salinity Model (SAHYSMOD) with a participatory, group-built system dynamics model (GBSDM) consisting of social, environmental, and economic variables. The GBSDM is a participatory model and all of its assumptions (e.g. farmer perceptions, government loan pay-back ratio, sedimentation rate, farm water storage potential, surface water /groundwater use ratio, crop rotation etc.) were refined through interviews with local stakeholders. Moreover, constants/parameters were defined through discussions with scientists with the necessary and relevant expertise (e.g., irrigation engineers, land reclamation experts, research officers, modelers etc.).The overall participatory (GBSD) model and its structure, equations, development methodology, and component details are presented in Inam et al. (2017). Socioeconomic interdependencies and feedbacks were determined through the participatory model-building process (conducted by Inam, Adamowski and Malard of the present paper) with local stakeholders in the Rechna Doab basin of northeastern Pakistan (Inam et al., 2015). The participatory model-building approach used in the initial stages of P-GBSDM development involved the application of stakeholder-built causal loop diagrams (CLD).