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Iaea-Tecdoc-1937 Iaea-Tecdoc-1937 IAEA-TECDOC-1937 IAEA-TECDOC-1937 IAEA TECDOC SERIES Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Seismic Events Probabilistic Safety IAEA-TECDOC-1937 Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Seismic Events International Atomic Energy Agency Vienna @ IAEA SAFETY STANDARDS AND RELATED PUBLICATIONS IAEA SAFETY STANDARDS Under the terms of Article III of its Statute, the IAEA is authorized to establish or adopt standards of safety for protection of health and minimization of danger to life and property, and to provide for the application of these standards. The publications by means of which the IAEA establishes standards are issued in the IAEA Safety Standards Series. This series covers nuclear safety, radiation safety, transport safety and waste safety. The publication categories in the series are Safety Fundamentals, Safety Requirements and Safety Guides. Information on the IAEA’s safety standards programme is available on the IAEA Internet site http://www-ns.iaea.org/standards/ The site provides the texts in English of published and draft safety standards. The texts of safety standards issued in Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian and Spanish, the IAEA Safety Glossary and a status report for safety standards under development are also available. For further information, please contact the IAEA at: Vienna International Centre, PO Box 100, 1400 Vienna, Austria. All users of IAEA safety standards are invited to inform the IAEA of experience in their use (e.g. as a basis for national regulations, for safety reviews and for training courses) for the purpose of ensuring that they continue to meet users’ needs. Information may be provided via the IAEA Internet site or by post, as above, or by email to Offi [email protected]. RELATED PUBLICATIONS The IAEA provides for the application of the standards and, under the terms of Articles III and VIII.C of its Statute, makes available and fosters the exchange of information relating to peaceful nuclear activities and serves as an intermediary among its Member States for this purpose. Reports on safety in nuclear activities are issued as Safety Reports, which provide practical examples and detailed methods that can be used in support of the safety standards. Other safety related IAEA publications are issued as Emergency Preparedness and Response publications, Radiological Assessment Reports, the International Nuclear Safety Group’s INSAG Reports, Technical Reports and TECDOCs. The IAEA also issues reports on radiological accidents, training manuals and practical manuals, and other special safety related publications. Security related publications are issued in the IAEA Nuclear Security Series. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series comprises informational publications to encourage and assist research on, and the development and practical application of, nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. It includes reports and guides on the status of and advances in technology, and on experience, good practices and practical examples in the areas of nuclear power, the nuclear fuel cycle, radioactive waste management and decommissioning. PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT FOR SEISMIC EVENTS The following States are Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency: AFGHANISTAN GEORGIA OMAN ALBANIA GERMANY PAKISTAN ALGERIA GHANA PALAU ANGOLA GREECE PANAMA ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA GRENADA PAPUA NEW GUINEA ARGENTINA GUATEMALA PARAGUAY ARMENIA GUYANA PERU AUSTRALIA HAITI PHILIPPINES AUSTRIA HOLY SEE POLAND AZERBAIJAN HONDURAS PORTUGAL BAHAMAS HUNGARY QATAR BAHRAIN ICELAND REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA BANGLADESH INDIA ROMANIA BARBADOS INDONESIA RUSSIAN FEDERATION BELARUS IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF RWANDA BELGIUM IRAQ SAINT LUCIA BELIZE IRELAND BENIN ISRAEL SAINT VINCENT AND BOLIVIA, PLURINATIONAL ITALY THE GRENADINES STATE OF JAMAICA SAN MARINO BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA JAPAN SAUDI ARABIA BOTSWANA JORDAN SENEGAL BRAZIL KAZAKHSTAN SERBIA BRUNEI DARUSSALAM KENYA SEYCHELLES BULGARIA KOREA, REPUBLIC OF SIERRA LEONE BURKINA FASO KUWAIT SINGAPORE BURUNDI KYRGYZSTAN SLOVAKIA CAMBODIA LAO PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC SLOVENIA CAMEROON REPUBLIC SOUTH AFRICA CANADA LATVIA SPAIN CENTRAL AFRICAN LEBANON SRI LANKA REPUBLIC LESOTHO SUDAN CHAD LIBERIA SWEDEN CHILE LIBYA SWITZERLAND CHINA LIECHTENSTEIN SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC COLOMBIA LITHUANIA TAJIKISTAN COMOROS LUXEMBOURG THAILAND CONGO MADAGASCAR TOGO COSTA RICA MALAWI TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO CÔTE D’IVOIRE MALAYSIA TUNISIA CROATIA MALI TURKEY CUBA MALTA TURKMENISTAN CYPRUS MARSHALL ISLANDS UGANDA CZECH REPUBLIC MAURITANIA UKRAINE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC MAURITIUS UNITED ARAB EMIRATES OF THE CONGO MEXICO UNITED KINGDOM OF DENMARK MONACO DJIBOUTI MONGOLIA GREAT BRITAIN AND DOMINICA MONTENEGRO NORTHERN IRELAND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOROCCO UNITED REPUBLIC ECUADOR MOZAMBIQUE OF TANZANIA EGYPT MYANMAR UNITED STATES OF AMERICA EL SALVADOR NAMIBIA URUGUAY ERITREA NEPAL UZBEKISTAN ESTONIA NETHERLANDS VANUATU ESWATINI NEW ZEALAND VENEZUELA, BOLIVARIAN ETHIOPIA NICARAGUA REPUBLIC OF FIJI NIGER VIET NAM FINLAND NIGERIA YEMEN FRANCE NORTH MACEDONIA ZAMBIA GABON NORWAY ZIMBABWE The Agency’s Statute was approved on 23 October 1956 by the Conference on the Statute of the IAEA held at United Nations Headquarters, New York; it entered into force on 29 July 1957. The Headquarters of the Agency are situated in Vienna. Its principal objective is “to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world’’. IAEA-TECDOC-1937 PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT FOR SEISMIC EVENTS INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY VIENNA, 2020 COPYRIGHT NOTICE All IAEA scientific and technical publications are protected by the terms of the Universal Copyright Convention as adopted in 1952 (Berne) and as revised in 1972 (Paris). The copyright has since been extended by the World Intellectual Property Organization (Geneva) to include electronic and virtual intellectual property. Permission to use whole or parts of texts contained in IAEA publications in printed or electronic form must be obtained and is usually subject to royalty agreements. Proposals for non-commercial reproductions and translations are welcomed and considered on a case-by-case basis. Enquiries should be addressed to the IAEA Publishing Section at: Marketing and Sales Unit, Publishing Section International Atomic Energy Agency Vienna International Centre PO Box 100 1400 Vienna, Austria fax: +43 1 26007 22529 tel.: +43 1 2600 22417 email: [email protected] www.iaea.org/publications For further information on this publication, please contact: External Events Safety Section International Atomic Energy Agency Vienna International Centre PO Box 100 1400 Vienna, Austria Email: [email protected] © IAEA, 2020 Printed by the IAEA in Austria December 2020 IAEA Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Names: International Atomic Energy Agency. Title: Probabilistic safety assessment for seismic events / International Atomic Energy Agency. Description: Vienna : International Atomic Energy Agency, 2020. | Series: IAEA TECDOC series, ISSN 1011–4289 ; no. 1937 | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: IAEAL 20-01374 | ISBN 978-92-0-131420-8 (paperback : alk. paper) | ISBN 978-92-0-131520-5 (pdf) Subjects: LCSH: Nuclear power plants. | Nuclear power plants — Earthquake effects. | Earthquake hazard analysis. | Tsunamis. | Seismic waves. FOREWORD One of the statutory functions of the IAEA is to establish or adopt standards of safety for the protection of health, life and property in the development and application of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. The IAEA is also authorized to provide for the application of these standards to its own operations as well as to assisted operations and, at the request of the parties, to operations under any bilateral or multilateral arrangement, or, at the request of a State, to any of that State’s activities in the field of nuclear energy. This publication supports the implementation of IAEA Safety Standards Series No. NS-G-2.13, Evaluation of Seismic Safety for Existing Nuclear Installations, published in 2009. It provides a detailed methodology for seismic probabilistic safety assessment in line with the current international practices for seismic safety assessment of nuclear installations. The methodology for seismic safety evaluation presented here includes probabilistic and deterministic approaches, as well as a combination of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Their applications typically address the impact of beyond design basis seismic events. The IAEA greatly appreciates the contributions of all those involved in the drafting and review of this publication. The contributions to the preparation of this publication provided by Y. Ohtori (Japan), M. Nakajima (Japan), T. Takada (Japan), J.J. Johnson (United States of America), R.D. Campbell (United States of America), D. Serbanescu (Romania), P. Amico (United States of America) and G. Hardy (United States of America) are gratefully acknowledged. The IAEA officer responsible for this publication was O. Coman of the Division of Nuclear Installation Safety. EDITORIAL NOTE This publication has been prepared from the original material as submitted by the contributors and has not been edited by the editorial staff of the IAEA. The views expressed remain the responsibility of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IAEA or its Member States. Neither the IAEA nor its Member States assume any responsibility for consequences which may arise from the use of this publication. This publication does not address questions of responsibility,
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