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Assessing Climate Change Impacts on River Hydrology – a Case Study in the Western Ghats of India

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Assessing Climate Change Impacts on River Hydrology – a Case Study in the Western Ghats of India J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2018) 127:78 c Indian Academy of Sciences https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-018-0979-3 Assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology – A case study in the Western Ghats of India T M Sharannya*, Amogh Mudbhatkal and A Mahesha Department of Applied Mechanics and Hydraulics, National Institute of Technology, Karnataka, Surathkal, Mangalore 575 025, India. *Corresponding author. e-mail: [email protected] MS received 4 May 2017; revised 13 October 2017; accepted 22 January 2018; published online 30 July 2018 The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow in a west flowing river originating in the Western Ghats of India. The long- term trend analysis for 110 yr of meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) was carried out using the modified Mann–Kendall trend test and the magnitude of the trend was quantified using the Sen’s slope estimator. The Regional Climate Model (RCM), COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) simulated daily weather data of baseline (1951–2005) and future RCP 4.5 scenarios (2006– 2060) were used to run the hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow. Significant changes were observed with regard to rainfall, which have shown decreasing trend at the rate of 2.63 mm per year for the historical and 8.85 mm per year for RCP 4.5 future scenarios. The average temperature was found to be increasing at 0.10 ◦C per decade for both historical and future scenarios. The impact of climate change on the annual streamflow yielded a decreasing trend at the rate of 1.2Mm3 per year and 2.56 Mm3, respectively for the past and future scenarios. The present work also investigates the capability of SWAT to simulate the groundwater flow. The simulated results are compared with the recession limb of the hydrograph and were found to be reasonably accurate. Keywords. Base flow; climate change; Gurupura catchment; Mann–Kendall; RCM; SWAT. 1. Introduction an easy task (Wagener et al. 2003). It is very important to understand the possible impacts of Hydrologists and water management planners are climate change on water resources for ensuring in a quandary over the availability of water. The their appropriate management and utilization. impacts of climate change contribute to this uncer- The General Circulation Models (GCMs) and tainty to a great extent. The quality and quantity Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to of water is affected by activities such as land- project future climate data based on the CO2 mining, agriculture, urban development and other emission scenarios. The RCMs are of finer spa- anthropogenic activities within a watershed. Since tial resolution and are better tools for dynamic the various watershed processes are interdepen- downscaling of climate features for a particular dent and are highly variable with respect to time region (Jones et al. 2004). Statistical downscal- and space, prediction of watershed processes is not ing using pre-defined statistical relationship or 1 0123456789().,--: vol V 78 Page 2 of 11 J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2018) 127:78 dynamical downscaling using an RCM nested in 2. Study area a GCM is essential to assess hydrological impacts of climate change (Marengo et al. 2009). 2.1 Characteristics of the study area The COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) provides regionally down- The river Gurupura is one of the major rivers in scaled climate for GCM projections as per the fifth the Dakshina Kannada district of Karnataka. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) river originates at an elevation of 1880 m above (Evans 2011). The present paper is an attempt to the mean sea level (msl) in the steep slopes of investigate the impact of climate change on the the Western Ghats and flows westward to join the hydrology of the west coast basin of India, i.e., Arabian Sea. The Gurupura River takes a right- Gurupura River catchment of Karnataka. angled turn prior to joining the sea and flows The physically-based semi-distributed model, southward parallel to the coast for a length of 6 km Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (Arnold and joins the Arabian Sea after its confluence with et al. 1998) is widely used in assessing the impact the Nethravathi River. The catchment area up to gauging site at Polali is 712 km2, which extends of climate change on hydrology (Liew and Gar- ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ brecht 2003; Zhang 2007; Raneesh and Santhosh from 12 50 to 13 10 Nand7450 to 75 15 E. Six 2011; Ajeeth and Thomas 2013). rain gauge station are located around the basin. The western coast of Indian peninsula is covered They are (1) Bantwal, (2) Belthangadi, (3) Kalasa, with the mountain range known as the Western (4) Karkala, (5) Bajpe and (6) Mulky (figure 1). Ghats, which is located entirely along and parallel The catchment receives an average annual rain- to the west coast of India. Considerable transitions fall of 4019.35 mm. The maximum and minimum temperature of catchment varies in between 36 to have been taking place over the decades causing ◦ changes in the area. The hydrological regime in 25 C, respectively. Towards the east of the catch- the humid tropics of the Western Ghats has been ment, the topography is characterized by the steep least explored by the scientific community and hill slopes. The lateritic plateaus dominate in the considerable impacts of climate change are antici- central portion and the west coast consists of flat pated in the rivers of the Western Ghats. SWAT lands. The vegetation comprises of dense forest in is efficient for predicting climate change impact the hilly regions, natural shrubs in the midlands on streamflow. In view of this, the Government of and agricultural croplands in the coastal plains. India is implementing the research scheme involv- ing the climate change impact assessment of all the 2.2 Data used major river basins of India. Given the importance of west coast region in India, in terms of popula- The hydrological data, i.e., streamflow at Polali tion, growth and industrialization, studies on the gauging station was procured for a period of 12 yr impact of climate change in this region are cru- (1974–1985) from the Karnataka Public Works cial for sustainable water resource development and Department (Karnataka PWD). The meteorolog- utilization under the ongoing climate change sce- ical data such as daily rainfall and temperature nario. The river Gurupura is one of the major rivers for a period of 25 yr (1970–1995) were obtained in Dakshina Kannada district on the west coast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) of India and provides water to the city of Manga- and Water Resources Development Organization lore and its suburbs. The present study on climatic (WRDO) Karnataka, respectively. The Digital Ele- trend and impact is carried out using data over vation Model (DEM) of 90 m spatial resolution was a period of 110 yr (55 yr of historic/baseline data obtained from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mis- and 55 yr of RCP 4.5 data). The Rossby Centre sion (SRTM). The land use and land cover map Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA4) simulations of the catchment was obtained from the super- of CORDEX experiment were specifically selected vised classification of Landsat-7 imagery and soil for the simulation using SWAT owing to its good map was obtained from the WATERBASE global performance (close proximity to observed data) dataset (www.waterbase.org). In order to provide in the complex mountainous topography of India robust hydro climatic variables, the World Cli- (Ghimire et al. 2015). An effort is also made in the mate Research Programme (WCRP) initiated the present work to simulate the subsurface flow com- CORDEX framework (Evans 2011). The CORDEX ponent using SWAT hydrological model in addition framework is based on the Coupled Model Inter- to the streamflow. comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) using the J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2018) 127:78 Page 3 of 11 78 Figure 1. Location map of Gurupura catchment. RCPs recommended by the fifth assessment report for rainfall-runoff modeling in the present study. of the IPCC (2014). Radiative forcing represents The SWAT is capable of providing necessary hydro- the net effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases logic simulations related to the impacts of climate (GHGs) along with other forcing agents. The RCP variations on water resources (Liew and Garbrecht 4.5 scenario used in the present study describes 2003). The following inputs were prepared in the medium stabilization after the year 2100 with- required format for the catchment: (1) digital ele- 2 out overshoot pathway to 4.5W/m . Representa- vation model, (2) land use and land cover map, tive Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with use of (3) soil map, and (4) daily climatic data, which CORDEX datasets can be used to demonstrate includes precipitation, minimum and maximum potential impacts on climate change on hydrol- temperature. It is assumed that physical char- ogy (Li et al. 2016; Shrestha and Aung 2016; acteristics such as LULC, topography and soil Mudbhatkal et al. 2017). The climatic data from of the study area have not changed over the CORDEX RCM for RCP 4.5 scenario was cor- time period. The SWAT model was run for the rected for bias using Delta Change correction period 1970–1995 and the calibration and valida- method and given as an input to the SWAT model. tion of the model was carried out during 1974–1981 The historical and forecasted data for a period of and 1982–1985, respectively as data for stream- 55 yr (1951–2005 and 2006–2060) from CORDEX flow was consistent only for those period.
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