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LG Electronics (066570 KS) Emerging As the No LG Electronics (066570 KS) Emerging as the no. 3 global smartphone player Technology 1Q13 review: OP of W349.5bn; Smartphone recovery in full swing LG Electronics (LGE) reported preliminary 1Q revenue of W14.1tr and an operating Result Comment profit of W349.5bn (excluding LG Innotek earnings: W12.9tr and W333bn, respectively; April 25, 2013 LG Innotek’s earnings are consolidated into LGE’s beginning 1Q). 1Q results beat our expectations (revenue of W12.24tr and operating profit of W251.4bn), boosted by robust smartphone sales. (Maintain) Buy LGE sold 10.3mn smartphones in 1Q, breaking the 10mn mark for the first time in any quarter. This was largely driven by: 1) the wider geographic availability of the Optimus G, Target Price (12M, W) 114,000 2) strong sales of the Nexus 4, and 3) the release of the Optimus G Pro (follow-up to the Optimus G). As a result, the mobile communications (MC) unit delivered a solid OP Share Price (04/24/13, W) 90,000 margin of 4.1% (vs. our estimate of 2%), the highest level after 3Q09 (8.8%). Expected Return 27% On the other hand, the home entertainment (HE) division still has not made any visible margin improvement. After peaking at 5.7% in 2Q12, the division’s OP margin plunged to 0.8% in 3Q12 and 0.3% in 4Q12 due to increased marketing spend (in order to gain OP (13F, Wbn) 1,741 market share amid sagging TV demand). In 1Q13, OP margin slightly edged up to 0.6%, Consensus OP (13F, Wbn) 1,465 but is still down 2.4%p YoY. One silver lining is the new product releases in March, which EPS Growth (13F, %) 1,100.2 we expect to support improved earnings in 2Q. Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 20.0 For 2Q, we project revenue of W15.08tr and an operating profit of W500.3bn (W13.83tr P/E (13F, x) 20.3 and W454.7bn, respectively, excluding LG Innotek), reflecting increased smartphone Market P/E (13F, x) 9.2 sales and strong seasonal demand for air conditioners. KOSPI 1,935.31 Market Cap (Wbn) 14,728 Shares hinge on smartphones; Emerging as the no. 3 global smartphone player Shares Outstanding (mn) 181 In 2012, LGE shares slipped 1.1% even though the firm saw its operating profit soar Free Float (%) 65.9 200.8%. This mismatch was largely caused by the disappointing earnings of its Foreign Ownership (%) 18.0 smartphone business and market doubts over its recovery. The MC unit is now fully back Beta (12M) 0.99 on track following a 2Q12 trough in both sales and volume, thanks to robust sales of the 52-Week Low (W) 55,800 Optimus G. 52-Week High (W) 91,300 We see more meaningful growth ahead for smartphones in 2013, underpinned by a (%) 1M 6M 12M diversified lineup that includes the Optimus G and the 5-inch Optimus Vu in the premium Absolute 11.3 21.6 14.4 segment, and the Optimus F (LTE) and L series (3G) in the lower-priced segment. We Relative 11.9 20.5 15.8 thus adjusted up our 2013 smartphone sales volume estimate by 15.1% to 47mn units Share price (from 40.9mn units). We believe LGE deserves a re-rating, as the company is now closer 130 KOSPI 120 than ever to becoming the third-largest global smartphone maker. 110 100 Maintain Buy and Lift TP by 3.6% to W114,000 90 80 70 We reiterate our Buy rating on LGE and lift our target price by 3.6% to W114,000 (from 60 W110,000). We derived our target price by applying a P/B of 1.73x (six-year historical 4/12 8/12 12/12 4/13 average; 1.65x previously) to our 2013F BPS of W66,114. Our target price represents upside potential of 26.7% from the current level. Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Telecom equipment/ Revenue (Wbn) 55,754 54,257 50,960 59,746 63,955 70,091 Electronic components OP (Wbn) 177 379 1,136 1,741 2,180 2,836 Wonjae Park OP Margin (%) 0.3 0.7 2.2 2.9 3.4 4.1 +822-768-3372 NP (Wbn) 1,227 -470 67 801 1,190 1,631 [email protected] EPS (W) 7,345 -2,809 369 4,432 6,578 9,020 Young Ryu ROE (%) 10.0 -3.7 0.5 6.3 8.9 11.3 +822-768-4138 P/E (x) 15.7 - 199.3 20.3 13.7 10.0 [email protected] P/B (x) 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. April 25, 2013 LG Electronics Company Snapshot LG Electronics (066570 KS/CP: W90,000/TP: W114,000) Investment thesis Target price assumptions Top-tier home electronics producer: One Operating assumptions: Smartphone shipments are forecast to grow of the top global producers of TVs, from 10.3mn units in 1Q, to 11.0mn units in 2Q, 12.7mn in 3Q, and washing machines, and refrigerators. LGE 13.1mn units in 4Q. We forecast the mobile communications division’s has established production bases around OP to surge to W647bn in 2013 (from W59bn). This should offset the the world, and has steadily enhanced YoY OP decline in the home entertainment division in 2013 (from competitiveness. W522bn to W312bn). Stellar technology: LGE’s technologies for Target price assumptions: Applied a P/B of 1.73x (6-year historical FPR 3D TVs and OLED TVs have global average) to our 2013 BPS estimate of W66,114. Target price represents reputations. The company holds upside potential of 27% from current levels. numerous LTE-related patents. Strong supply chain: Competitiveness of Key variables IT firms hinges on the procurement of 2011 2012 2013F 2014F steady supply of differentiating hardware. Handset sales (‘000 units) 88,020 56,501 69,698 80,818 LGE’s strong supply chain with affiliates Smartphone sales (‘000 units) 20,200 26,200 47,050 64,998 (parts from LG Innotek and LG Display; TV sales (‘000 units) 38,308 35,790 35,002 35,976 key electronic materials from LG Chem) LCD TV sales (‘000 units) 24,725 26,717 29,925 32,986 helps the company maintain a stable and competitive supply of finished goods. Catalysts Peer valuations HA (home appliance) and AE (air P/E P/B ROE conditioner & energy solution) units, 2012 2013F 2012 2013F 2012 2013F which stagnated due to a surge in raw material prices in 2011, have stabilized. LGE 199.4 20.3 1.2 1.4 0.56.3 Samsung Electronics 11.2 8.4 2.2 1.7 21.7 23.4 Steady release of a series of new Nokia - - 1.2 1.2 -26.3-4.2 smartphones (including premium to low- Apple 8.5 7.8 2.8 2.7 33.3 29.9 end models, and “phablets”) from 1Q13 should stimulate recovery of LGE’s HTC 13.8 19.4 2.9 2.8 18.5 15.9 smartphone unit. Strong relationships with telecom carriers, competitive supply chain, and M/S breakdown for leading handset makers broad business experience should help (%) LGE secure global smartphone market 50 Nokia SEC Apple share, and stay atop the 2nd tier. ZTE LGE 40 Risks Upside: (i) Market share expansion in 1H 30 on the back of new model releases, (ii) healthy sales of mid- to low-end models, 20 (iii) margin recovery of TV business. Downside: (i) Delay in margin recovery of 10 TV business, (ii) poor market response to new smartphone models, (iii) sharp 0 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 increase in raw material prices Source: Gartner KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 April 25, 2013 LG Electronics Earnings results and forecasts Table 1. 1Q13 review (Wbn, %, %p) 1Q13P % chg. 1Q12 4Q12 Actual KDB Daewoo Consensus YoY QoQ Revenue 13204.7 14801.1 14100.6 12242.3 12709.4 6.8 -4.7 OP 401.7 116.9 349.5 251.4 288.6 -13.0 199.0 OP margin 3.0 0.8 2.5 2.1 2.3 -0.6 1.7 Pretax profit 458.1 -330.6 176.7 177.5 266.3 -61.4 TTB Net profit 235.7 -476.9 24.2 119.6 227.5 -89.7 흑전 Source: WISEfn, Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings breakdown (Wbn, W, %, %p,’000 units) 2012 2013F 1Q13P 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY 1QP 2QF 3QF 4QF FY YoY QoQ Previous % chg Mobile Revenue 2,497.2 2,321.2 2,447.6 2,811.6 10,077.6 3,209.7 3,393.5 3,476.4 3,580.2 13,659.8 28.5 14.2 2,560.3 25.4 communications OP 34.5 -27.9 -3.8 56.5 59.3 132.8 162.7 190.9 161.0 647.4 284.9 135.0 51.7 156.7 OPM (%) 1.4 -1.2 -0.2 2.0 0.6 4.1 4.8 5.5 4.5 4.7 2.8 2.1 2.0 2.1 - Handsets Revenue 2,452.0 2,286.2 2,423.1 2,779.3 9,940.6 3,202.3 3,358.5 3,451.9 3,547.9 13,560.6 30.6 15.2 2,515.1 27.3 OP 31.0 -30.4 -4.7 55.5 51.4 132.5 161.2 189.9 159.7 643.2 327.4 138.7 50.3 163.4 OPM (%) 1.3 -1.3 -0.2 2.0 0.5 4.1 4.8 5.5 4.5 4.7 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.1 Home Revenue 5,423.2 5,556.8 5,561.6 6,521.6 23,063.2 5,172.4 5,287.5 5,382.6 6,738.8 22,581.3 -4.6 -20.7 5,206.0 -0.6 entertainment OP 163.9 305.5 39.8 13.1 522.3 29.8 74.0 107.7 101.1 312.6 -81.8 127.5 5.2 472.4 OPM (%) 3.0 5.5 0.7 0.2 2.3 0.6 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.4 -2.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 Home appliances Revenue 2,535.7 2,875.3 2,867.5 2,942.3 11,220.8 2,806.7 3,090.4 3,071.3 3,141.0 12,109.4 10.7 -4.6 2,656.1 5.7 OP 143.3 183.7 122.0 80.2 529.2 101.7 135.6 121.5 95.0 453.8 -29.0 26.8 152.7 -33.4 OPM (%) 5.7 6.4 4.3 2.7 4.7 3.6 4.4 4.0 3.0 3.7 -2.0 0.9 5.7 -2.1 AC & Revenue 1,217.9 1,474.9 974.3 682.5 4,349.6 1,230.7 1,511.7 1,012.0 717.9 4,472.3 1.1 80.3 1,192.3 3.2 energy solutions OP 71.3 82.8 13.5 -11.0 156.6 72.8 87.9 15.0 -8.0 167.7 2.1 TTB 69.8 4.3 OPM (%) 5.9 5.6 1.4 -1.6 3.6 5.9 5.8 1.5 -1.1 3.8 0.1 7.5 5.9 0.1 Internal & other Revenue 553.9 630.8 524.8 539.3 2,248.8 481.8 548.7 456.5 469.1 1,956.1 -13.0 -10.7 627.5 -23.2 OP -36.8 -35.8 -24.5 -30.7 -127.8 -4.1 -5.5 -4.6 -4.7 -18.8 RR RR -28.0 -85.4 OPM (%) -6.6 -5.7 -4.7 -5.7 -5.7 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 5.8 4.8 -4.5 3.6 Revenue 12,227.9 12,859.0 12,375.8 13,497.3 50,960.0 14,100.6 15,086.1 14,688.2 15,870.6 59,745.5 15.3 4.5 12,242.3 15.2 Operating profit 376.2 508.3 147.0 108.1 1,139.6 349.5 500.3 500.2 391.4 1,741.3
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