Study of Glaciers in Himalaya (IHR): Observations and Assessments (Himalayan Glaciological Programme)
Dwarika P. DOBHAL dobhal.dp@gmail,com National Correspondent, India for WGMS
Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (An Autonomous Institute of DST, Govt. of India) Dehra Dun The Himalaya Structurally, Geologically, Ecologically and Climatically the most Diverse Region on Earth.
1. Greater Himalaya 2. Lesser Himalaya 3. Shivalik
1
2 I N D I A 3
Greater Himalaya Lesser Himalaya Shivalik
Tropical Temperate Alpine Altitude Upto 1300 m a.s.l 1300 m ‐ < 3500 m a.s.l. >3500 m a.s.l. Precipitation Rainfall (1000‐2500 mm) Rainfall (1000‐1500 mm) Snowfall Temperature 20 °C –30 °C 10 °C –20 °C 5 °C –10 °C Characteristics Broad Leaved/swamp Flora Coniferous Species Snow & Glaciers Glacier System‐Indian Himalayan Region (IHR)
Number of Glaciers: 9575 Glacierized area : ~ 37466km2 Jammu & Kashmir
Himachal
Uttarakhand
Sikkim INDIA Arunachal
State Glaciers Area (Km2)Average Size (Km2)Glacier (%) Jammu & Kashmir 5262 29163 10. 24 61.8 Himachal Pradesh 2735 4516 3.35 8.1 Uttarakhand 968 2857 3. 87 18.1 Sikkim 449 706 1.50 8.7 Arunachal Pradesh 162 223 1.40 3.2 (Raina and Srivastava, 2008) Distribution of Glaciers number, Ice Volume and Area
70.00 30.00 66.42% Glaciers no.% Area % 26.59% 60.00 Ice Volume % 25.00
50.00 20.00 18.39%
40.00 (%)
no. (%) 15.00
12.93% 30.00 12.25% 26.14% 27.49% Volume
9.21% 10.00 20.00 Glaciers 6.86%
12.82% 14.33% 5.53% 13.61% Glaciers 4.04% 4.18% 5.00 10.00 9.44% 6.87% 6.88% 4.27% 4.12% 4.45%
1.16% 0.49% 0.41% 0.57% 0.21% 0.12% 0.00 0.00 < 1 km2 1 ‐ 5 km2 5‐10 km2 10‐15 km2 15‐20 km2 20‐25 km2 25‐50 km2 50‐100km2 >100 km2 Glacier Area (km2)
Source; Based on Glacier inventory, GSI,2009 The Scientific Concerns
What is the regional pattern of Mass balance and distribution of ELA/Snow line along the Himalaya?
Is the climate only forcing factor of glacier retreat ?
How is geometry responding to changes of Glacier dynamics ?
What should be the observational strategies to capture these forcing, measure changes? Gross inferences so far
• Out of total glaciers (9575), 60-70% glacier are less than 5 km2 and are debris covered. • Himalayan Glaciers experienced uneven recession rate ranges between ~5 to20 m/year. • Ablation (melting) is more than the accumulation. Hence continuous volume loss, consequently the negative mass balance. • Recession has also led to volume and area loss results fragmentation of many large glaciers. • In contrast, several glaciers in western Himalaya have advanced and/or thickened probably due to enhanced precipitation. (Surging glaciers) • Summer period expended and winter is shrinking, lead to less snow accumulation Need for Glacier Studies • Assessment & Management of water budget. • Understanding impact of Climate Change /Global Warming. • Understanding dynamic processes operating in the glacial regime and Palaeoclimatic reconstruction and • Mountain environment and ecology Objectives: • Assessment of total ice volume and impact of global warming on Himalayan glacier • Process studies and modeling of water balance of glacier basin • Reconstruction of high resolution climatic and environmental changes • Assessment of impact of glacial hazards on the environment of downstream and societal relevance • Atmospheric transport and chemical weathering in head water environment Glacier Monitoring Approach
Glacier Dynamics & Hydrology & Snow/ice Mapping & Survey Physical Glaciology Meteorology Chemistry Remote Sensing & GIS
Mass balance/snout Melt water discharge Snow/Ice & Melt Snow Cover/Snow line Measurement Water Chemistry Surface velocity Glacier Inventory Sediments Transfer Stable Isotope Ice thickness & Bed rock Debris Cover Mapping Surface morphology Meteorology Shallow Ice Core Spatial &Temporal Quaternary Glaciology Climate Modeling Paleo‐Climate Changes of Glacier WORKING INSTITUTIONS AND ON GOING ACTIVITIES 1.Ground based glacier monitoring in Indian Himalaya: Indian Himalayan No. of Mass Snout Hydro‐ Region Glaciers Balance Retreat met/Other study NW Himalaya J& K, 09 05 09 04 H.P 12 12 11 07 Central Himalaya 11 05 11 05 Uttarakhand NE Himalaya 06 01 06 01 Sikkim
Presently 23 glaciers (03 in Uttarakhand, 08 in Himachal, 04 in J&K and 01 in Sikkim) are being monitoring for mass balance, Besides that snout, flow measurement, hydro‐met and glacial lakes and other studies are also being carried out . 2, Remote sensing based glacier monitoring :
1). Glacier and glacial lake inventory 2). Geodetic Mass balance of 23 glacier (2000‐22017) in Sikkim Himalaya 3). Glacial retreat for 1868 glaciers in the 10 basins of from 1962 to 2001/2004 4). Glacial retreat for 82 glaciers in Uttarakand Himalaya from 1968 to 2006. and 18 glacier for the period from 2001 to 2017 Working Institutions 5). Geomorphological mapping, glacial surface mapping ,paleo‐climate, glacial hazard Sources: Published data, Reports and personal etc. are also being studies under long term glacier monitoring program communication.. Mass Balance: Measurements, Distribution and Characteristics Observed Mass balance Trends of Himalayan Glaciers
(Source; GSI & WIHG) Mass‐balance Trend‐ During the last four decades Mass Balance Trend of Himalayan Glaciers
1000 Cumulative balance Annual balance 0
400 -1000 + + -2000 - 0 - -3000
-4000
-400 -5000 Mean net balance (mm) balance net Mean
Mean Mean cumulative net balance (mm) -6000 -800
Mean of Five Glaciers -7000
-1200 -8000
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2. Frontal Retreat:
Recession trends of Glaciers in Himalaya (NW‐ NE)
Rates of glacier retreat vary considerably; a few glaciers have retreated with an average rate of 18 to 20 m/year, while few show less retreat rate (<10 m/y) Like; Chorabari and Bhagirathi Kharak glaciers etc.
(Source: GSI, WIHG & ICIMOD) Snout Retreat of glaciers in Upper Ganga catchment, (1990‐2017)
40 Glacier Name CG1 Dokriani 35 CG2 Bhagirath Kharak 30 CG3 Tara Bamak CG4 Chorabari CG5 25 CG6 CG7 20 CG8 Bangni
Retreat (m/y) Retreat CG9 CG10 Pindari 15 CG11 CG12 10 CG13 CG14 CG15 5 CG16 Dunagiri CG17 Tipra Bamak
0 CG18 Kafni CG1 CG2 CG3 CG4 CG5 CG6 CG7 CG8 CG9 CG10 CG11 CG12 CG13 CG14 CG15 CG16 CG17 CG18 1990‐2000 2000‐2017 1990‐2017
Garg et at., 2017 Size distribution and trends of area reduction of glaciers (1968‐2006)
Glacier area change (%) based on Corona (27.09.1968) and ASTER (11.10.2006) images in Alaknanda and Bhagirathi basins, upper Ganga catchment Bhambri et al. (2011a); JoG Snout Retreat and Specific Balance of Dokriani and Chorabari Glaciers (2007/08‐2012/13) The studies carried out on Dokriani (7 km2) and Chorabari (6.6 km2) glaciers in Central Himalaya show that both glaciers are retreating and having negative mass balance trend. Dokriani glacier is retreating with average rate of 18.5m/yr (3940 m a.s.l.), where as the Chorabari glacier has just half of the Dokriani and is 9.5 m/y (3865 m a.s.l).
Mass balance is just reverse of the snout retreat i.e. for Chorabari glacier 0.72 m w.e.a-1 (ELA, 5090 m a.s.l.) is almost double compared to the Dokriani Glacier i.e. 0.43 m w.ea-1 (ELA 5085 m a.s.l.) during the study period.
Estimation of the glacier mass Change, based on snout fluctuations alone are not definite proxy for the variation in temperature and precipitation. Mass balance studies are certainly marker but such studies are conducted for few glaciers ( IHR, only for 23 glaciers). 3. Observed Synoptic Changes
1882 2010
Chorabari Glacier Campanian Glacier 3865 m asl
3690 m asl 3690 m asl
Grieshbatch,1882 Dobhal, 2010
After 128 Years …
Changes in Chorabari glacier, Changes in Snout Position of the Gangotri Glacier
1991 2011
After 20 Years … Photo by Dobhal, WIHG Changes in glacier surface morphology
Ice surface lowering (Volume loss) in Dokriani glacier during a period of 13 years i) Rapid surface thinning ii) Decrease of snow cover (transition snowline) iii) Increase of debris cover in lower ablation area
(Photo by Dobhal, WIHG) 4. Fragmentation of Glaciers
1962 2008
Chorabari Glacier- Glacier lost 0.71 km2 (9.6%) Tipra Glacier- Glacier lost 2.6 km2 (18%) Tipra Glacier‐ Glacier lost 2.6 km2 (18%) Chorabari Glacier‐ Glacier lost 0.71 km2 (9.6%) 1962 2010
Jaundhar Glacier‐ Glacier lost 2.68 km2 (4.7%) 5. Glimpses of Field Activities
Mass balance- Stake networking
Discharge measurementSediment sam
Water level recorderAethalometer
GPR survey,- Thickness DGPS Survey Dokriani Base Camp Dunagiri Base Camp Batal Camp
Chorabari Base Camp Gangotri Base Camp CENTRE FOR GLACIOLOGY
Centre for Glaciology (CFG) was established at Flagship Research Stations Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology in 2009 by DST, Govt. of India to provide a platform for pursuing Himalayan glacier research in holistic Panchhi Nala, Himachal way, long term monitoring of the glaciers, development of infrastructure and manpower. Dunagiri, Uttarakhand The objectives of the Centre are :‐
Patsio, Himachal Establish flagship field stations for multidisciplinary high quality data capture.
Establish inter‐linkages of various forcing factors with glacier dynamics. Dokriani, Uttarakhand Pindari, Uttarakhand Chorabari Develop trained manpower in specialized field of glaciology.
Gangotri, Uttarakhand Chorabari, Uttarakhand Document glacial responses to palaeoclimatic variability through sediment records (e.g., Name of Glacier moraine, glacial, and fluvial), ice cores, peat 1). Gangotri; 2). Dokriani; 3). Chorabari; 4). Dunagiri & logs, tree rings etc. Bagni; 5). Pindari & Kafani; 6). Panchhi Nala; 7). Patsio; and 8). Pensilungpa Glacial lakes
• Glacier lakes are most common and visibly features in high mountain glacierised area and
• Most potential to hazards of Glacial environments of the Himalaya.
• Most of the glaciers in Himalaya are retreating and creating lakes/pounds but are not documented well
• Hence, the formation of glacial lakes (supraglacial, Ice dammed moraine dammed, Cirque and erosion lake) and potential for GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood) is a major concern of discussion. Glacial Lakes and GLOF in Himalaya (IHR):
Moraine dame Lake (4850m) Cirque lake, (4400 m)
Supraglacial lake (4000-5000 m Moraine dame(5200 m asl), Glacier Lakes Inventory of Uttarakhand & Himachal
Uttarakhand
Himachal Pradesh Chorabari Lake(3910m asl) out burst 17 June,2013
3960m
3546m Rambara
2740m
Daily discharge observed at Chorabari Glacier years 2009–2012
Kedarnath Town
Chorabari Lake View of Kedarnath Town after Lake burst
During the Breached time the estimated volume of lake is ~1x106 m3released with in 10 minute; estimated discharge was ~1600 m3 sec-1 CFG‐Technical report, Nov.‐2013 Area Changes of Satopanth lake during the period 2005‐Octonber, 2017
Area Change from 58283m2 in 2005 to 24121m2 in 2017 (~34%) 6. Perspectives and Critical Issues:
• Broad framework and scope of assessment
• Scale assessment
• Indicators / parameters of health
• Data availability and compatibility
• Output and outcome Cont, ….. • Net work of Glacier monitoring with respect to international strategies
• Selection of monitoring sites for long term assessment and modelling.
• Mechanism for data exchange & knowledge sharing
• Climate Change projections for all scenarios
• Compilation of data and linkage at local, Regional and Global scale
• To identify glacier lakes potential for GLOFs.
Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (An Autonomous Institute of DST, Govt. of India)
• Established in June 1968 and grown into a National Laboratory of International repute • 62 GeoScientists; Equipped with state‐of‐the‐art Geological, Geochemical, Geochronological, Geophysical, Biogeoscientific data acquisition, analysis/processing and interpretation facilities • Answer to Fundamental questions related to Himalaya & provide Societal implications Vision: Questing for Himalayan Seismogenesis, Geodynamics, Hazards and Natural resources to fulfill the scientific goals and societal needs
Aims/Objectives: Develop new concepts and models for geodynamic evolution of the Himalaya Understand physical processes responsible for natural disasters, evaluate hazard potential and suggest remedial measures Build exploration strategies/management for natural resources: glaciers, springs, water, minerals Dissemination of knowledge, human resource development, and Service to stake holders Thrust Areas: Understanding Seismogenic zones; Providing critical parameters to mitigate hazards; Water, Minerals & Hydrocarbon Resources; Earthquakes, Geodynamics, Paleo-Climate; Biodiversity & Environmental Impact, Glaciers & Climate Variability