What we published October October 2019

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK TableContent of 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. MF activity report:MF activity Top September mutual funds in 2019 buys/sellby Stock Currency Monthly Thematic Currency Thematic Derivatives Outlook Monthly Derivatives Technical Report Strategy Coverage Initiating PolicyMonetary RBI Oct 2019 Update preview Result recommendations/ F&O recommendations & Quant &Quant F&O recommendations recommendations/ – BFSI to remain keyremain BFSI toquarter driver muted in Derivatives – Indian management IndustryIndian Asset 2 Ideas Click on headings for respective segmentforrespective headings on Click

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK Result Preview – BFSI remainto key driver inmuted quarter 3

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK • • BFSI Click to Click a CAGRof20.3% in FY19 at grow to Nifty we expect EPStax cut, corporate Postinvestment cycle. beleaguered the recent a spur and capital global of enable attraction at bywill up 15% 2023) (that facilities come taxing Also,ahead. production new going investments incremental capacity,increasing in either will be that Corporateto cash flows increased of in benefit the form immediatean likely provide to is 25.2%~34%to from tax rate in the corporate The to grow at 7.5%, largely aided by BFSI. by aided largely7.5%, at growto the 3.5% whereas grow the consolidated companies, Sensex of In case numbers. decent reportto likelyhealthcare, andareITcapital goods, FMCG like hand, the other sectors On revenue growth. negative to likelyregister and construction are respectively. & gas oil metals, likeauto, Sectors revenue PAT and de The universe (ex the of I performances onthe is likelyand economy global reflect to The government’s recent announcement a cut announcement recent of government’s overall economic slowdown in the the in domesticslowdown economic overall to remain keyto quarter... driver in muted read the read channelised - BFSI) is likely to registeris likely to BFSI) detailed report … report detailed - growth of 4.6% and 7.6%,4.6% of growth - direct coverage universe. coverage direct bottomline - into debtreduction or 21E. topline is expected is likely de - 4 Content Back to Table of

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK RBI Monetary Policy Update Oct 2019 5

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK Accommodative • • yields able term to the 10 The further at has February 5 a reverse 5 time reducing RBI . . 4 4 reverse hover % % year ‘accommodative’, announcement also . bond . to in continued If have The while policy repo the a G ensure in kept the 2019 repo - market row cumulative Sec the room government benchmark and space maintaining the 6 rate is rising by . stance better 40 MSF to its now reaction policy . - at 25 6 for shift We . 70 4 1 rate rate at at . bps indicating rate 9 transmission, % expect bps repo % lower and stance 25 135 – range by the was and cuts to bps cut to to support growth revival revival growth support to regulators rate . bps the 5 bond 6 MSF muted spread . unchanged resulting in 15 . trajectory, 62 . RBI for there the % The % rate yields a bond since from near post with fifth RBI are for at in is 6 • • be growth Hence, seen rate RBI that necessary accommodative The downwards for – and August is significantly growth predominantly The Content Back to Table of with revised below in cut, Governor, inflation Q MPC in rate 1 the risks : scope policy remains 2020 light mentioned as RBI’s range to cut . downwards decided to Click to read the detailed report … report the detailed read to Click it evenly - Real remains revive of 21 to for 7 target while lowered driven . stance 110 2 6 of and stance further % . has GDP 1 6 % that balanced growth, . . bps 6 to inflation justifying within - – 7 by also growth 5 . the from by 2 rate continue . its as cut 3 % % weak cut the for while the ; long been GDP cut already in 6 continues GDP needs . for the Q H 9 target to % 2 2 economic RBI : : ensuring as with forecast 2019 2019 2019 support revised 25 growth in done . to it was The bps - - - the be 20 20 an 20 to is .

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK I nitiating Coverage - Indian Asset ManagementIndustry 7

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK October 17, 2019 October 17, Beneficiary of structural shift in household savings… in household shift Beneficiary structural of • • • • inflows in crore SIPs CAGR outpace crore, 18 W accretion remaining ticket increasing Given bonds financial traditional by industry period The e . July 7 a expect % past inflow gradual per size, in . with ease in 2019 constitute . for FY overall This month in the few asset appetite intact, avenues industry 20 momentum equity have ; AUM of the shift next i - . period 23 decades e transaction . E in . Indian AUM CAGR including - been ~ which . of oriented five April of 33 AUM (FD, household of retail % years growing by have of growth of 2016 of gold, asset will to 34 SIP using total AUM investors growing grow MFs, % to support been to real flows . management savings has gross ~| from | In expected technology, at 8100 stocks estate) FY a 47 been CAGR and at is golden 19 overall inflow | . ICICI Ltd. Securities Retail| Equity Research 3 crore from seen 3100 , 23 lakh low led SIP to % to of & . Content Back to Table of Click to read the detailed report … report the detailed read to Click 8

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK Technical Strategy Report 9

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK Rally Rally NSE NSE Nifty Nifty Midcap 100 100 MidcapNifty Monthly Bar Monthly on track, time to board for 13100boardto time on track, – Monthly Bar ChartBar Monthly Chart … 10 Content Back to Table of • • • model CY continue Going Fibonacci significant technical corrective Nifty returns opportunity, have average corrections Empirical 20 Click to read the detailed report … report the detailed read to Click , provided ahead, as and (average midcap its 14 guided number parlance, phase conventional % evidence as ascent of delivering we from it the 24 long expect by in index sequence is to % ’Number life 21 our ) 13100 magnitude . derived depicts term st - double chart time the bottom month anchored levels Nifty buying work highs, 21 from digit that . ’ up of to In in is .

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK Derivatives Outlook Monthly 11

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK F&O data suggests Nifty to consolidate.. to Nifty suggestsdata 12 Content Back to Table of Click to read the detailed report … report the detailed read to Click • • • the lowest which than new The the series progres the series continue to pickupas short in consolidation the into somego may current uptrend We the Nifty believe in Nifty and market gave The corporate economy provide by immense was The just last the Nifty 1 September - corporate series term but but term should marked . by drove 5 2 Nifty three is government a million sessions a is 1000 by steps the fillip sentiments starting boost tax OI years with reducing up by tax seen second shares, points to series rates taken ses. . less the the the cut the to to in .

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK Derivatives Thematic 13

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK reached 0.30 in last three three years in last reached0.30 Nifty has generally formed bottom when FIIs’ has long/shortwhenratio formed bottomhas generally 14 Back to Table of Content Click to read the detailed report … report the detailed read to Click • • the instances has has increased FPI’s report, As coming turn session 42000 contracts of FPIs closure moving a long/short As bottom mentioned same . reached seen more The net short since contracts . of sessions . expected, We and net in again short have ratio a positive up believe 2017 than 2018 0 short long/short exposure pullback in . 30 positions . has reduced and till our , , indicating whenever replicated positions the 1 the FIIs formed in started August . FPIs’ Nifty lakh ratio Two last will the has by to

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK October 17, 2019 October 17, Volume August its 16%10800Nifty OIfrom while declined bound hovering around range largely remained 10637.However, postAugust, the Nifty The Nifty as well as in stocks as Nifty aswell in short covering It triggeris likely support. to Wethe right. to good these as levelsact expect the table on by 11200as indicated at is placed the short of FIIspositions Average short price weighted average price of FIIs’ short positions at 11200 at FIIs’positions price of shortaverage weighted Nifty fell from 11600 and made a low of and11600a low madeNifty fellfrom highs. ICICI Ltd. Securities Retail| Equity Research Back to Table of Content Click to read the detailed report … report the detailed read to Click 15

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK CurrencyThematic 16

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK October 17, 2019 October 17, US $ INR is also likely to provide support to to the supportUS$INR pair likely provide to is also Index continues The Dollar 28 strength almost gainat to and is CNY depreciated by 12.7%, the rupee also depreciated by 10.5% till till 10.5%mid by also depreciated the rupee 12.7%,by CNY depreciated in the Chinese Yuan the matched moveshas almostThe rupee the US since and could depreciate towards 71.8 levels 71.8 towards depreciate and could with up the set that catch globalthe mayview the rupee are of we such, Inthe 71.0 the the strike has highest options segment, Put the supportpair. to to providewhich is likely OI, As recovering from crucial ICICI Ltd. Securities Retail| Equity Research support of 70 . 50 - month highs at 99.55 levels. Strength highs Strength month the at levels.in 99.55 US$ … Content Back to Table of - - up (strong US$ and weakening up US$ CNY)(strong September 2018 September - China trade war erupted. When When the erupted. war China trade Click to read the detailed report … report the detailed read to Click 17

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK Monthly Currency DerivativesMonthly Currency 18

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK may see rupee in arange rupee in may see Relatively positive macros amid strength in US$ in macros amidstrength positive 19 Content Back to Table of Click to read the detailed report … report the detailed read to Click

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK Stock recommendations/ F&O recommendations & Quant Ideas 20

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK F&O recommendations & Quant Ideas Quantrecommendations & F&O Nifty Nifty Bank Nifty Bank M&M Finance Manappuram Spirits United Nifty Bank LICHousing AxisBank Vedanta BankNifty BankNifty Voltas Finserve Bajaj Foodworks Jubilant Company Titan BPCL IOC Steel JSW CenturyTextiles HF Arbitrage Pharma Aurobindo Indigo Scrip Long/Short OctStrategy : Buy 11500Nifty at Call 185-190 11800 and Sell at Call 76-81, Target: 11800, Oct till expiry) frame: (time Strategy Long/Short Sell: CallBankNifty (timeSellOct at Put and frame: 31000 76-81, at 28800 185-190 till Oct expiry) Strategy: Long/Short Frame: October 03 expiryTill 230-235,Time Sell Call inflow: BankNiftyOct Premium &Sellat 03 Put 31000 at 110-115, 120-125 28800 Strategy Long/Short Oct Call M&M Buy Sell: and Call at 580 558-562 (time Target:at Stop-loss: frame: 520 15-16, 595, till Oct expiry) CallOctober Manappuram 140 Buy (time Target:at loss: Stop frame: 2.5 5.3-5.8; Option: 12.5; October Positional expiry) SpiritsOctoberFuture United (time FutureBuy :Positional Target:frame:Stoploss: , 624 at 695 till648-652, October expiry) Sell Nifty Bank Option: Target:(time at September frame:loss: Stop PUT 225 Positional 2; 115-125; September 29500 expiry) Future Voltas Buy :Positional October (time Future Target:frame:Stoploss: , 606 at 705 till634-639, September expiry) September (timeTarget: at Put loss:Stop frame: 1.2 5.5-6.5; 380 15; LIC Housing Buy September Option: expiry) Positional Sell September AxisOption: Bank Call Positional 660 (time Target:at frame: loss:Stop 13.5 6.5-7.5; 0.2; September expiry) Future Vedanta Buy :Positional September (time Future Target:frame:Stoploss: , 139 at 165 till147-149, September expiry) Sell Nifty Target:2,SeptemberBank Option: atPut (time 19 Stop-loss: Positional 95-105, frame: 200 27300 September 19 expiry) Sell Nifty Target:2,SeptemberBank Option: atPut (time 19 Stop-loss: Positional 95-105, frame: 200 27000 September 19 expiry) Sell VoltasOption: (time Positional frame:September Target: loss:Stop 10.20 atPut September 0.50; 5.50-6.50; 610 expiry) Sell Finserv Bajaj Option: September CallPositional 7600 at Target: (time 50-55; loss: Stop 95 frame: 5; September expiry) September Sell(time atPut Target: loss:Stop Foodworks 25 frame: 13-15; 1180 0.50; Jubilant Option: September Positional expiry) Sell September Titan CallOption: (time frame: Target:Positional 1160 loss:Stop 11.50 at September 0.50; 6.00-6.50; expiry) Future BPCL September Buy :Positional (time Future Target:frame:Stoploss: , 358 at 405 till374-376, September expiry) SeptemberIOC Buy Call 130 Option: Target:7, at (time Stop-loss:Positional 2.4-2.8, frame:.80 September expiry) Strategy: Long/Short Frame:atPut Target: Steel8-9, 220 JSW September 240,Time Till long Long and Sept expiry the rangefutures218-220 of in Future Sell:Positional Century Textile September (time Future Target:frame:Stoploss: , 870 at 745 till820-825, September expiry) near futures Closeparity August at lot of the1 close expiry.positions 522-525. buy August and to (Expected at Strategy561-564 Profit:Long/Short 21,600) Finance Demat from holding Sell: Housing shares Indiabulls 800 of Pharma Strategy Long/Short Sept Sell future and Call at Aurobindo 630 613-617 Buy : Target:at (time 17-20, frame: 648 till Sept expiry) Call Sept Strategy Long/Short 1700 Sell Callat and 63-67 1800 Indigo Target:(timeat Buy : frame: 28-32, 1800 till Sept expiry) Recommendation Date 12-Sep-19 11-Sep-19 05-Sep-19 14-Aug-19 06-Aug-19 MothersonSumi &Toubro Larsen Torrentpower JSW Steel JSW Scrip CESC Derivative strategies Derivative Buying Price 97.50-101.50 1390-1420 230-236 790-810 285-292 Quant Picks Quant 21 Target 1620 122 280 940 340 Stop Loss 1320 208 725 260 91 Upside (%) 22% 16% 20% 18% 18%

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK Technicalstock 26/Sep/19 26/Sep/19 25/Sep/19 20/Sep/19 20/Sep/19 20/Sep/19 20/Sep/19 20/Sep/19 16/Sep/19 12/Sep/19 11/Sep/19 Date 20/Sep/19 20/Sep/19 13/Sep/19 11/Sep/19 11/Sep/19 9/Sep/19 Date 23/Sep/19 23/Sep/19 23/Sep/19 23/Sep/19 23/Sep/19 Date BalrampurChinni KEC International KEC IndraprasthaGas Kalpatarupower Bandhan Triveni Engg Triveni Pidilite DCB Bank DCB Indian Oil Indian Mishra Dhatu Mishra Escorts Phoenix Mills Phoenix Radico MOIL Scrip HDFCBank AstraZenca TataSteel BEML Scrip HDFC Scrip KEC EIH recommendations I-Direct Code KALPOW BANBAN RADKHA DCBBAN ESCORT INDGAS TRIENG BALCHI INDOIL KECIN MOIL I-Direct Code I-Direct Code Momentum HDFBAN MIDHAN PHOMIL TATSTE ASTZEN Gladiator Gladiator Stocks EIHLIM Gladiator Gladiator Stocks PFIZER PIDIND KECIN BEML HDFC Strategy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buying range Buying range 1185 2025 3095 2160 1440 361 126 157 708 278 920 Picks Recom. Range Recom. 59.5 319 132 140 565 206 459 465 336 250 136 Target Target 1320 2395 3420 1080 2370 1680 402 144 179 845 334 Target 350 144 152 620 227 495 510 370 273 148 68 22 Stop LossStop Stop LossStop Stop Loss Stop 1118 1840 2840 2010 1330 339 115 146 635 248 820 305 123 133 536 196 439 441 319 238 127 53 Content Back to Table of Upside (%) Upside (%) Upside (%) 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 14% 11% 11% 14% 14% 18% 11% 19% 20% 17% 10% 17% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% • • • • • midcap oil Out with we In Mills EIH, in major Midcap and outperformer captured In Bank, recommendation large Gladiator our & the MNC performer captured emphasis Astra … Mishra gas, Tata Momentum gainers banking form cap space Pharma report Zenca Steel capital Dhatu of multiple on such from the were stocks space some and BEML, : focused goods Pick on space , the as captured HDFC Phoenix … of major HDFC stocks report Pfizer sugar, . KEC, with the and we on

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK MF activity report: Top buys/sell by mutualfunds in September 2019 23

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK MF Activity: TopMF Activity: in buys/sellsfunds bymutual • • However, 8262 | strong at remainSIP inflows August in 2019 crore 9150| from 6600 | to during September sharply Inflows into equity funds declined crore. 24 Sep 2019 Content Back to Table of Click to read the detailed report … report the detailed read to Click .

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICK October 17, 2019 October 17, Pankaj Pandey ICICI Ltd. Securities Retail| Equity Research [email protected] Mumbai (East) Andheri No7,MIDC, Road 1st Floor, ICICI Securities Limited, Direct ICICI Head – Research – Akruti 400 093 400 Research Desk, Research Trade Centre, Trade pankaj . pandey@icicisecurities . com 25

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