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A Closer Look at China's Lgfvs: Shaanxi April 20, 2020

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A Closer Look at China's Lgfvs: Shaanxi April 20, 2020 A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Shaanxi April 20, 2020 Primary Analyst Key Takeaways Dan Li Beijing — Following a desktop analysis of 41 local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) in +86-10 6516 6042 Shaanxi Province, we believe that overall indicative issuer credit quality of LGFVs in the [email protected] province is on a par with the national average, and vehicles’ indicative credit quality Secondary Analysts distribution is generally consistent with nationwide trends. Yu Ge — We believe differences exist between different cities in Shaanxi in terms of their Beijing indicative support capacity for LGFVs. +86-10 6516 6026 [email protected] — In Xi’an, we believe there is clear polarization of indicative issuer credit quality among Yuze Gao the city’s LGFVs. Indicative issuer credit quality of city-level vehicles is generally better, Beijing whereas that of LGFVs in local industrial parks is relatively poorer in comparison. +86-10 6516 6028 [email protected] To get a full picture of the overall credit quality of LGFVs in Shaanxi Province, we carried out a Juanzi Zhang desktop analysis of 41 LGFVs, using public information. Our sample includes LGFVs at the city- Beijing +86-10 6516 6030 level and below and subway companies but excludes provincial level LGFVs (like transportation [email protected] construction companies, investment holding companies and utility companies). The entities in the sample cover 9 prefecture-level cities, and we believe they present a comprehensive reflection of the overall indicative credit quality of LGFVs in Shaanxi. We believe local government support is generally the most important factor when we consider the indicative credit quality of LGFVs. In this report, we have analyzed the indicative ability of various Shaanxi municipal governments to provide vehicles with support, as well as the importance of LGFVs to municipal governments. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn April 20, 2020 A Closer Look at China's LGFVs: Shaanxi April 20, 2020 Chart 1 About This Article S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. (S&P China) has conducted a desktop analysis of a selection of entities based in the relevant region. We have chosen these entities based on their asset sizes, representativeness of most regions and availability of public information. The analysis contained herein has been performed using S&P China Methodologies. S&P China Methodologies and analytical approaches are intended specifically for use in China only, and are distinct from those used by S&P Global Ratings. An S&P China opinion must not be equated with or represented as an opinion by S&P Global Ratings, or relied upon as an S&P Global Ratings opinion. This desktop analysis has been conducted using publicly available information only, and is based on S&P China’s methodologies for corporates. The analysis involves a desktop application of our methodologies to public information to arrive at a potential view of credit quality across sectors. It is important to note that the opinions expressed in this report are based on public information and are not based on any interactive rating exercise with any particular entity. The opinions ex- pressed herein are not and should not be represented as a credit rating, and should not be taken as an indication of a final credit rating on any particular entity, but are initial insights of potential credit quality based on the analysis conducted. This desktop analysis does not involve any surveil- lance. The opinions expressed herein are not and should not be viewed as recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. We have conducted this desktop analysis on individual corporates and present the results contained herein at an aggregate group level. The different sections of this research show the statistics and performance of different groups of entities and the market more broadly against the metrics we generally consider most relevant under our methodologies. Given the desktop nature of this analysis, and that we have not conducted an interactive review with any particular entity, we may have made certain assumptions in lieu of confirmed informa- tion and where relevant we may also have attempted to consider any possibility of parent, group, government or other forms of potential support, to inform our view of potential credit quality. S&P China is not responsible for any losses caused by reliance on the content of this desktop analysis. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 2 A Closer Look at China's LGFVs: Shaanxi April 20, 2020 On the National Level: Shaanxi LGFVs on Par with National Average Located in the hinterlands of northwest China and traversed by the Yellow River and the Yangtze River basins, Shaanxi plays an important role in connecting eastern, central, northwestern and southwestern China. As of the end of 2019, the province's population was around 39 million, with a land area of 205,600 square kilometers. Shaanxi covers 10 prefecture-level cities, 30 municipal districts, 6 county-level cities and 71 counties. We believe that the indicative issuer credit quality of LGFVs in Shaanxi is in the middle level nationwide, and distribution of indicative issuer credit quality is generally consistent with that of LGFVs on the national level. Chart 2 Within the Province: Relatively Large Indicative Issuer Credit Quality Differentiation Found Among Different LGFVs Our analysis found that where business and financial risk profiles of LGFVs are very similar, there are fewer differences between LGFVs in terms of indicative stand-alone credit quality. Therefore, we believe that differences in credit quality can largely be attributed to differing levels of government support. We generally look at local government support from two angles: the indicative support capability of the local government and the LGFV’s importance to the relevant local authority. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 3 A Closer Look at China's LGFVs: Shaanxi April 20, 2020 Analysis of Indicative Local Government Support Capability In terms of local government indicative support capacity for LGFVs, we looked at each city in Shaanxi and considered factors such as economic performance, budget, debt, liquidity and financial management. Our analysis suggests that differences exist between the 9 Shaanxi cities in our sample in terms of the indicative support capability of local authorities. The provincial capital Xi’an is far ahead in the province in terms of its indicative support capacity for LGFVs. Yulin, Xianyang, Baoji and Yan'an come behind Xi'an, while Ankang and Shangluo have relatively weaker indicative support capacity. Chart 3 Varied Indicative Ability to Support LGFVs Within the Province Yulin Yan'an Tongchuan Weinan Xianyang Baoji Xi'an Shangluo Hanzhong Ankang Stronger Weaker Note: Areas in gray were not included in this study. Source: S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 4 A Closer Look at China's LGFVs: Shaanxi April 20, 2020 As a core city and major transportation hub for western China, Xi'an is the regional leader in terms of economy and budget, with its total GDP accounting for around 35% of that of the entire province. Behind Xi’an, cities including Yulin, Xianyang, Baoji and Yan'an share similar attributes in terms of their economies and fiscal revenue. These cities rely on their rich mineral resources and well-developed metals, chemicals and equipment manufacturing industries. Meanwhile the size and scale of Ankang and Shangluo's economies and fiscal revenue are smaller, with relatively weaker fiscal balances. Chart 4 Chart 5 2019 GDP per capita by Region in Shaanxi Tongchuan Xi'an Shangluo Ankang Yulin Hanzhong Yan'an Weinan Xianyang Baoji National 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Amount (RMB) Source: Wind，S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 5 A Closer Look at China's LGFVs: Shaanxi April 20, 2020 When it comes to debt, Xi'an, as the center of economic development for the whole province, has the region’s highest proportion of total government debt. Xi'an accounts for about 60% of the province’s special purpose bonds earmarked for income generating infrastructure projects. Therefore, Xi’an’s government debt ratio is significantly higher than other cities both within the province and nationwide. Chart 6 2019 Proportion of Government Debt of Cities in Shaanxi Shangluo Ankang Yulin Hanzhong Weinan Xianyang Baoji Provincial level 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% Percentage of Total Special Purpose Bonds Percentage of Total Government Bonds Source: Wind，S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Chart 7 Series1 S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 6 A Closer Look at China's LGFVs: Shaanxi April 20, 2020 Analysis of LGFV’s Importance to Local Governments In addition to the local governments’ indicative ability to provide support, differences in the indicative issuer credit quality of LGFVs also depend on the LGFV’s potential importance to its local government. When analyzing support, we typically consider an LGFV’s importance by looking at factors such as: the LGFV’s administrative level; its policy role; whether its business is not-for- profit or difficult to replace; revenue and asset scale; strategic importance, etc. Except for Xi'an, cities in Shaanxi generally don’t have many LGFVs, mainly because of limited infrastructure investment. One city generally only needs 1-2 LGFVs to meet its infrastructure investment and financing needs.
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