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Bill Oppenheim, May 7-The Triple Crown Untapable California

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Bill Oppenheim, May 7-The Triple Crown Untapable California Bill Oppenheim, May 7-The Triple Crown THE TRIPLE CROWN: DOES IT EVEN MATTER NOW? In last weekend=s two English Guineas Classics, the winners were by Europe=s number two and three sires: Dubawi (Ire) (Dubai Millennium {GB}) is the sire of the “The European 2-Year-Old sales only account for about 20% of the combined shock (note the pun) 40-1 winner of the G1 English NA/EU 2-year-old market, but their sales are consistently achieving over a 60% 2000 Guineas, Night of Thunder (Ire), while Dansili (GB) clearance rate from the catalogues: 62.3% so far this sales season. The number sold so far at the European sales is up 8% from last year, the gross up by 29%, is the sire of Miss France (Ire), winner of the G1 English and the average up by 20%. OBS April, which has accounted for 64% of the 1000 Guineas. In Kentucky, both Classic winners were 2-year-olds sold in the US so far this year, achieved a 63.4% clearance rate from sired by sons of Pulpit, arguably A.P. Indy=s most the catalogue. That range – 5 out of 8 – is obviously the right target. influential son. That is – Bill Oppenheim largely, of course, because Pulpit sired Tapit, the sire of Untapable, who won the GI Kentucky Oaks last Friday in near-stakes record time while recording a Beyer Speed Figure of 107 for the nine-furlong trip. Tapit has now extended his lead on the TDN Year-to-Date General Sire Untapable Horsephotos List (NA only) (click here) to more than $1.5 million, with 2014 progeny earnings now over $5 million. He=s already the sire of seven graded stakes winners this year, including 3-year-old Grade I winners Untapable and Constitution, and 13 TATTERSALLS GUINEAS BREEZE UP SALES (IN GUINEAS) graded stakes horses--leading all North American sires YEAR CAT RING SOLD %W/D %S/R %S/C GROSS AVG in both those categories as well. You=re long since 2014 159 126 100 20.8% 79.4% 62.9% 3,271,800 32,718 bored by now about my banging on about the 2006 2013 139 113 92 18.7% 81.4% 66.2% 2,349,800 25,541 sire crop, but it now accounts for four of the top six 2012 127 98 78 22.8% 79.6% 61.4% 2,153,250 27,606 > = 2011 73 63 35 13.7% 55.6% 47.9% 294,100 8,403 sires in North America in 2014: #1 Tapit, #4 Candy 2010 147 131 83 10.9% 63.4% 56.5% 2,149,500 25,898 Ride (Arg), #5 Speightstown, and #6 Medaglia D=Oro. 2009 167 138 74 17.4% 53.6% 44.3% 2,819,200 38,097 The other son of Pulpit, the sire of the GI Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome, is not so mainstream. This is Lucky Pulpit, who only won one stakes race, the five-furlong Smile S. on the turf at Arlington Park as a 4-year-old. Lucky Pulpit has been toiling in relative California Chrome Horsephotos obscurity (up >til now) for a $2,500 fee at Harris Farms in California. He wasn=t a complete unknown even before California Chrome appeared. His first two crops each TOTAL EUROPEAN 2YO SALES AS OF MAY 4, 2014 YEAR CAT RING SOLD %W/D %S/R %S/C GROSS AVG included a half-million-dollar plus earner; Luckarack 2014 589 478 367 18.8% 76.8% 62.3% €23,992,810 €65,376 ($534,645) in his first crop (2008) and Rousing Sermon 2013 551 467 340 15.2% 72.8% 61.7% €18,557,035 €54,580 ($735,092) in his second. But he=s a lot more famous 2012 502 408 317 18.7% 77.7% 63.1% €18,431,387 €58,143 now, and Lucky Pulpit=s days as an obscure $2,500 2011 462 385 256 16.7% 66.5% 55.4% €13,033,667 €50,913 stallion are over. 2010 499 431 301 13.6% 69.8% 60.3% €16,003,701 €53,168 2009 502 435 301 13.3% 69.2% 60.0% €17,361,051 €57,678 Data compiled by Brianne Stanley California Chrome went into the Derby off two Last year, speed figure guru Andy Beyer hypothesized impressive wins in California, the GII San Felipe S. that the reason for the decline, if I may paraphrase, is (8 1/2 furlongs), won by 7 1/4 lengths with a 108 that American breeders don=t breed 12-furlong horses Beyer; and the GI Santa Anita Derby (nine furlongs), any more. After his team=s calculations confirmed won by 5 1/4 lengths, with a 107 Beyer. He was California Chrome=s figure as 97, Andy sent me this entitled to be the Derby favorite and at post time went note: off at 5-2, with AI think what we saw yesterday was an extension of GI TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial winner Wicked the Belmont S. phenomenon. The last six Belmonts Strong (Hard Spun) at 6-1, GI Arkansas Derby winner have been 100 or less because nobody is bred to go Danza (Street Boss) at 8-1, and, I was surprised to see 1 1/2 miles anymore. When you look at the final half in the Equibase chart, GI Santa Anita Derby third Candy mile of the Derby--a half mile in :51.86--you might Boy (Candy Ride {Arg}), bet down to 9-1, the only reasonably conclude that nobody is bred for 1 1/4 miles other one sent off under 14-1. California Chrome had a either.@ great trip, ultimately sitting third off a slow enough pace, took a decisive lead at the top of the stretch (yes, and it was on Racing UK - well done them) and won eased down with jockey Victor Espinoza starting to stand up in the irons before the winning post. The slow pace did result in trouble behind the front rank. Danza was bounced off the rail before the first turn by stablemate Vinceremos (Pioneerof the Nile), though he also had trouble getting a clear run in the stretch to finish an honorable third, while the longshot second-place finisher Commanding Curve (Master Command) had a clear run down the outside. He was flattered by his proximity to the winner, though it would have been more like four lengths, rather than 1 3/4 lengths, had California Chrome not been eased up. The Wood Memorial one-two Wicked Strong and Samraat (Noble Causeway) both ran well to finish fourth and fifth, but in contrasting styles. Wicked We know California Chrome is a better horse than a Strong came from far back, encountered plenty of 97, because he just ran 108 and 107 in his previous trouble (and caused some of it, too) and traffic, while two starts, and don=t shake your head and say this Samraat was up with the leaders from the start and stuff doesn=t matter. It comes out the same no matter stuck on admirably. The other horse I thought had a which speed rating system you use, or even if you just nightmare trip was Intense Holiday (Harlan=s Holiday), use raw times. But those last two starts were at 8 1/2 who was widest of all every step of the way until he and nine furlongs. This was 10 furlongs. Last year, at faded a furlong out. He covered miles of extra ground, 12 furlongs, Palace Malice (Curlin) won the Belmont and would be a good candidate, in my book, for a top running a 98. In his next two starts he ran a 107, in the effort next time out. GII Jim Dandy S. (nine furlongs), and a 106, in the But the big negative: it was the slowest Derby ever GI Travers (10 furlongs). Andy makes a good point run, according to the Beyer figures a 97. A moderate when he speculates that (American) horses aren=t bred pace (first half in :47.37 in this case) can contribute to to go 1 1/2 miles any more. a lower final figure (happens a lot in turf and Maybe the same is true of 10 furlongs, at least for all-weather races, where you see more bunch finishes), 3-year-olds, at least in the first half of the year. Will but even so the first half went in :48.63 in Animal Take Charge (Unbridled=s Song) did run a 107 when he Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux {Brz})=s 2011 Derby, and he won the Travers last August, and he and (then still won it in 103. 5-year-old) Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) ran Beyers For the last five runnings of the Derby (2009-2013), of 112 in the GI Breeders= Cup Classic at Santa Anita the winning Beyers were: 105 (Mine That Bird on Nov. 2. So American 3-year-olds can run respectable {Birdstone}); 104 (Super Saver {Maria=s Mon}); 103 numbers at 10 furlongs later in the year, but can they (Animal Kingdom); 101 (I=ll Have Another {Flower run them the first Saturday in May? Alley}); 104 (Orb {Malibu Moon}); average 103.4. Even Does it matter? Somebody still wins the races, that is well below the 25-year average (108), but now, collects the money, guarantees a stud career (well, if we=re going to start seeing winning Derby Beyers except for the two geldings, Funny Cide and Mine That below 100--well, it=s not a good sign, is it? Bird, who seemingly got a sort of movie career, if not a There is a precedent for this decline in winning stud career).
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