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The 2018 Joint Economic Report ______ 8QLRQ&DOHQGDU1R453 WK&21*5(66 5(3257 +286(2)5(35(6(17$7,9(6 2nd Session ` ^ 596 THE 2018 JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT _______ R E P O R T OF THE JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES ON THE 2018 ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT 72*(7+(5:,7+ 0,125,7<9,(:6 MARCH 13, 2018. ² Committed to the Committee of the Whole House on the state of the Union and ordered to be printed U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON: 2018 28-917 -2,17(&2120,&&200,77(( [Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress] +286(2)5(35(6(17$7,9(6 6(1$7( Erik Paulsen, Minnesota, Chairman Mike Lee, Utah, Vice Chairman David Schweikert, Arizona Tom Cotton, Arkansas Barbara Comstock, Virginia Ben Sasse, Nebraska Darin LaHood, Illinois Rob Portman, Ohio Francis Rooney, Florida Ted Cruz, Texas Karen Handel, Georgia Bill Cassidy, M.D., Louisiana Carolyn B. Maloney, New York Martin Heinrich, New Mexico, Ranking John Delaney, Maryland Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota Alma S. Adams, Ph.D., North Carolina Gary C. Peters, Michigan Donald S. Beyer, Jr., Virginia Margaret Wood Hassan, New Hampshire COLIN BRAINARD, Executive Director KIMBERLY S. CORBIN, Democratic Staff Director II /(77(52)75$160,77$/ __________________ March 13, 2018 HON. PAUL RYAN Speaker, U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC DEAR MR. SPEAKER: Pursuant to the requirements of the Employment Act of 1946, as amended, I hereby transmit the 2018 Joint Economic Report. The analyses and conclusions of this Report are to assist the several Committees of the Congress and its Members as they deal with economic issues and legislation pertaining thereto. Sincerely, Erik Paulsen Chairman III &217(176 &KDLUPDQ¶V9LHZV Introduction ........................................................................... 1 Accelerating Growth in the Near Term ................................. 3 Impaired Market Function and Constrained Potential .......... 5 Tax and Regulatory Reform ................................................ 16 Long-term Potential ............................................................ 19 Conclusion .................................................................................. 23 &KDSWHU&DXVHVRIWKH:HDN(FRQRPLF5HFRYHU\ Introduction ................................................................................ 25 The Recovery.............................................................................. 29 Business Startups ................................................................ 30 Wages and Labor Force Participation ................................. 31 Productivity and Output Growth ......................................... 36 Increased Hurdles for Business Formation................................. 39 Expanding Regulation ......................................................... 40 High and Complex Tax Burden .......................................... 41 Fewer Workers Relocating .................................................. 44 Higher Education and Rising Student Debt ........................ 45 Other Contributing Factors ................................................. 48 Conclusion .................................................................................. 49 Recommendations ............................................................... 50 &KDSWHU0DFURHFRQRPLF2XWORRN Overview .................................................................................... 51 Demand-Side Constraints ........................................................... 52 Credit Policy, Not Monetary Policy .................................... 53 A Subtle Change to Fed Policy Implementation ................. 56 :K\(PHUJHQF\/HQGLQJ3URJUDPVDQG³4XDQWLWDWLYH (DVLQJ´:HUH1RW,QIODWLRQDU\ ........................................... 58 Legislative Issues Related to IOER .................................... 62 Views Cautioning on Use of Unconventional Monetary Tools.................................................................................... 63 Supply-Side Constraints ............................................................. 65 5HDVRQVIRUWKH86(FRQRP\¶V6OXJJLVK*URZWK ............ 65 ³4XDQWLWDWLYH(DVLQJ´,QFUHDVHGWKH*RYHUQPHQW¶V)RRWSULQW in Capital Allocation ........................................................... 68 V VI Workforce Participation Adversely Affecting Employment ........................................................................ 69 Capital Investment Stagnation and the Decline of the Natural Rate of Interest ....................................................... 71 Meager Productivity Growth .............................................. 73 Significance of Supply-Side Constraints ............................ 76 The Economic Outlook............................................................... 76 Forward-Looking Indicators Improve ................................. 76 Real Economic Indicators Improve..................................... 77 The Outlook under Ideal Conditions ................................... 82 Potential Risks to the Outlook ............................................ 85 Conclusions ................................................................................ 92 Recommendations ............................................................... 93 Appendix 2-1: Pre-2008 Impetus for IOER ............................... 94 &KDSWHU7KH%HQHILWVRI7D[5HIRUP 6XEVWDQWLDO3URJUHVV6LQFHWKH-(&¶VResponse ................ 95 7D[ 5HIRUP $ 1HFHVVLW\ IRU %RRVWLQJ $PHULFD¶V (FRQRPLF Potential ...................................................................................... 97 Features of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act ....................................... 99 TCJA Provisions Affecting Individuals and Families ........ 99 Tax Fairness ...................................................................... 103 TCJA Provisions Affecting Small Businesses and Pass- Through Companies .......................................................... 107 Faster Cost Recovery to Boost Investment ....................... 108 Increasing the Competitiveness of U.S. Corporations ...... 110 The Relationship between Corporate Taxes and Wages ... 115 Tax Simplification for Individuals .................................... 117 Tax Simplification for Businesses .................................... 118 The Impact of Economic Growth on Deficits ................... 120 Conclusion ................................................................................ 124 Recommendations ............................................................. 125 Chapter 4: Regulation«««««««««««««««« Regulation That Helps or Hinders The Economy .................... 126 Markets are the Engine of Economic Growth ................... 126 Markets Can Deal with Economic Challenges ................. 127 Containing Growth of Regulations Long-term ................. 131 Conclusion ................................................................................ 133 Recommendations ............................................................. 133 VII &KDSWHU An Education and Training System Worthy of American Workers««««««««««««««««««« Introduction .............................................................................. 134 Elementary and Secondary Education ...................................... 136 Post-Secondary Education ........................................................ 140 Conclusion ................................................................................ 144 Recommendations ............................................................. 144 &KDSWHU,QIUDVWUXFWXUH«««««««««««««««« Public vs. Private Infrastructure ............................................... 145 What is Infrastructure? ...................................................... 145 Infrastructure Provision Is by No Means an Exclusive Government Function. ...................................................... 146 Different Reasons and Models for Government Infrastructure Provision..................................................... 149 Which Levels of Government Should Deal with Infrastructure? ................................................................... 151 Is Infrastructure a Tool to Manage the Business Cycle? .. 151 Problems with Regulation and Bureaucracy ..................... 152 Conclusion ................................................................................ 154 Recommendations ............................................................. 154 &KDSWHU(QKDQFLQJ867UDGHLQD*OREDO(FRQRP\« Digital Transformation of the Economy................................... 156 Dynamic Gains from Digital Trade .......................................... 158 Economic Impact .............................................................. 159 Barriers to Digital Trade ................................................... 160 Rules for Digital Trading .................................................. 163 Digital Trade as Equalizer ................................................. 164 Conclusion ................................................................................ 166 Recommendations ............................................................. 167 &KDSWHU Addressing Healthcare Challenges through Innovation«««««««««««««««««««««««« The Health System after the Affordable Care Act ................... 169 A Failed Design ................................................................ 169 Rising Healthcare Costs .................................................... 172 The Tax Burden Imposed by the ACA ............................. 173 Economic Effects of the ACA .........................................
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